Forecasting migration between the EU, V4 and

Eastern Europe: impact of visa abolition

Marta JaroszewiczNew OSW research project presentation

Forecasting migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: impact of visa abolition

Implemented by: Centre for Eastern Studies Financed by: International Visegrad Fund, (V4 for East),

Centre for Eastern Studies Implementation period 01.05.2013-31.05.2014 www: http://www.osw.waw.pl/pl/forecasting-

migration-between-eu-v4-and-eastern-europe-impact-visa-abolition

Project’s partners: Research Centre of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association (Bratislava), Geographic Migration Centre of Faculty of Science, Charles University (Prague), Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (Budapest), Centre of Migration Reserch Foundation (Warsaw) , Institute for Economic Research and Political Consulting (Kyiv), Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (Minsk), Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) „Viitorul” (Chisinau).

Objectives: examination of migration patterns and structure in Eastern European states bordering the EU ( Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus) in the perspective of expected emigration to the EU (with particular emphasis on emigration to V4) after potential visa abolition. taking into account demographic, economic and political factors that attract and push out the migrants

Expected results: qualitative and quantitative estimations of migration stocks of Eastern European states in the EU and V4 in the forthcoming 10 years policy recommendations for the V4 and EaP states, hard-copy and electronic publication and seminars disseminating project’s results.

Forecasting migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: impact of visa abolition

Research methods:

1)Critical examination of existing data and literature

2)Delphi method research among 100 (70 results expected) in seven states examined; anonymous questionnaires with controlled opinion feedback; V4 states- capitals; EP states – capitals plus border areas (Delphi formulates research as public dialogue)

3)Creation of econometric forecast model; Simple error correction model based on human capital approach (migration as an investment); GDP per capita of a country is taken as a proxy for individuals’ incomes both in source and target countries; The concept of propensity to migration (migration costs versus difference in wages)

Forecasting migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: impact of visa abolition

Research methods:4)Extrapolation of previous trends (Central Europe

following by Bulgaria and Romania in 1990s and Western Balkans in 2009-2010)

Lesson learnt: Increase in border crossing dynamicsMain push factors: labour conditions (including

wages) in destination states and migrants networks

Increase in short-term and temporary migrationInformal employmentTendencja do nieformalnego zatrudnienia “Fake” asylum seekers problem

Forecasting migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: impact of visa abolition

Main hypothesis:The visa abolition should not have an significant impact

on Eastern European migration stocks in the V4 and EU; it should be mainly treated as part of travel costs variable

The significant change could be brought only by the opening of labour markets

In the first period after visa abolition we could expect short-term increase in labour migration from Eastern Europe

There is a long-term correlation between economic and demographic indicators in both sending and receiving states

Migration patters among three examined states may vary substantially depending on their propensity to migration

The development of Russian integration projects in the region may hamper further immigration to the EU

Forecasting migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: impact of visa abolition