martin jacques on victoria in the asian century and the rise of china
TRANSCRIPT
Welcome by Andrew Tongue
ENGAGEMENT WITH
CHINA: ITS PIVOTAL
IMPORTANCE AND
WHAT IT INVOLVES
MARTIN JACQUES
Institute of Public Administration
Australia, 28 August 2013
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order
0 10 20 30 40 50
Iron Ore
Zinc
Steel
Cotton
Copper
Rubber
Rice
Palm Oil
Soyabeans
Corn
Crude Oil
Share of Global Consumption
%
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order
Selected Countries for which China was Largest Trading Partner by 2010
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order
1820 1870 1913 1950 1973 2000 2010 2020 2030
South 70.3 53.1 42.1 39.5 39.9 43 52.4 60.5 66.9
Asian developing
56.5 36.1 22.2 15.3 15.8 29.2 40.9 49.1 58.2
China 33 17.1 8.8 4.6 4.6 11.8 20.7 28.9 33.4
India 16.1 12.2 7.5 4.2 3.1 5.2 8 12.2 18.6
Russia 5.4 7.5 8.5 9.6 9.4 2.1 2.4 2.7 3
Brazil 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.6 3.6 5.1
North 29.7 46.9 57.9 60.5 60.1 57 47.6 39.5 33.1
US 1.8 8.9 18.9 27.3 22.1 21.9 18.4 16.7 15.1
EU 23.3 32 35.8 27.1 27.1 21.5 18.1 15.7 13.1
Japan 3 2.3 2.6 3 7.8 7.2 5.4 4.4 3.2
China/US 18.3 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.2
China’s share of global GDP in 2030
Hu Angang
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order
China US Unit: $ trillion
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order
*EstimatedSource: China 2030, by Hu Angang
GDP in China and the US
2000
GDP at current exchange rate
GDP at purchasing power parity (current price)
1.2 9.9 5.8 14.7 11.5 17.9 22.7 21.9 38.8 26.6 66.4 32.5
2010 2015* 2020* 2025* 2030*
3.0 9.9 9.8 14.5 15.6 16.4 24.7 18.5 35.7 21.0 51.6 23.7
Share of Global GDP in 2030: Regional Breakdown
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order
Other asian developing
6%
China 34%
India 19%
Russia 3%
Brazil 5%
US 15%
EU 13%
Japan 3%
Other
2%
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order
Centre of Global Economy1980 - 2050
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of the New Global Order
Australia’s Exports to China by Broad Sector
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order
Boundary of the Qin Dynasty at its Greatest Extent, c. 206BC
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order
Tributary States of Imperial China
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order
0
20
40
60
80
100
2003 2005 2007 2009
Central
Provincial
District/County
Township/Village
Relatively or extremely satisfied with government
Martin Jacques, When China Rules the World: the End of the Western World and the Rise of a New Global Order