marty matlock, ph.d., p.e., c.s.e. professor and area director, center for agricultural and rural...
TRANSCRIPT
Marty Matlock, Ph.D., P.E., C.S.E.Professor and Area Director, Center for Agricultural and Rural SustainabilityEcological Engineering GroupBiological and Agricultural Engineering DepartmentUniversity of Arkansas
Global Agriculture and Water Use
• Agricultural use accounts for over 70 percent of all human use of water.
• Agricultural water use is predominantly from rainfall.
• Water scarcity is experienced by humans as famine.
• Demand for food, feed, fiber and fuel from agriculture will double by 2050.
• We have to meet that need without one drop more of water, one hectare more of land.
• We must freeze the footprint of agriculture
Global Agricultural Water Use
World Wildlife Fund
http://www.wwf.org/
Encyclopedia of Earth
http://www.eoearth.org/
World Resources Institute
http://www.wri.org/
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Report
http://www.millenniumassessment.org/
Sources of Information
Everything is Connected
Source: RicklefsEconomy of Nature
Everything is changing
We’re all in this together
http://media.photobucket.com/image/poverty/chenpn/thegivinghands/poverty1.jpg
Global Freshwater Resources, in KM3
Water Use by Sector
Water Resource Use by Sector
Water Resource Use by Sector
Availability of Fresh Water
Water Resource Scarcity
Water Resources and Prosperity
–5 to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds long-term accessible supplies (low to medium certainty)
–15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable (low to medium certainty)
Water Resources Per Capita
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
What we do in the next 10 years will shape Earth and Humanity for the next 100 years
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
Projected Population Changeby Country
Percent Population Change, 2005-2050
Billions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Growth in More versus Less Developed Countries
Association Between Fertility and Education
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Percent of Girls Enrolled in Secondary School
Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.
Total Fertility Rate
Palestinian Territory
Uruguay
Morocco
Association Between Fertility and Poverty
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Percent of Population Living on <$2 per Day
Source: Population Reference Bureau, Population & Economic Development Linkages 2007 Data Sheet.
Total Fertility Rate
Niger
Jordan
Mongolia
Sustainability 2050: The Challenge
Ecological Services
Millions
Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision (medium scenario), 2004.
1950 2000 2015
Largest Cities, Worldwide
811 12
17 18
34
2123
36
London Tokyo New York
Sao Paulo
MexicoCity
Tokyo Delhi Mumbai(Bombay)
Tokyo
• The largest cities in the world are growing rapidly, and they are shifting from the more developed regions to the less developed regions.
• In 1950, New York was the largest city in the world, with a population of about 12 million.
• By 2015, the largest city worldwide is projected to be Tokyo, with triple this population size: 36 million.
Largest Cities Worldwide
Published by AAAS
J. A. Foley et al., Science 309, 570 -574
(2005)
Worldwide extent of human land-use
and land-cover change
Human Activities Dominate Earth
Croplands and pastures are the largest terrestrial biome, occupying over 40% of Earth’s land surface
Meeting Food Needs by 2050
Jason Clay
The role of research
Water Footprint Concepts
Water footprint is the amount of water required to produce a unit of product.
1 Kg Corn requires 900 L water.
30
Water Footprint Concepts
Blue water is water that is collected for use (river, reservoir, groundwater)
Green water is soil moisture from precipitation
Grey water is water to dilute pollution concentration 31
2000 Corn Yield Data (SAGE)
Blue vs Green Water from Water Balance Model
Water Stress Index
35
•A WSI of 0.5 is the threshold between moderate and severe water stress.
•The WSI the ratio of water use to availability with a weighted factor dependent on watershed variations in annual water availability.
Pfister, S; Koehler, A; Hellweg, S. Assessing the Environmental Impacts of Freshwater Consumption in LCA. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2009, 43, 4098-4104
•The above represents climate data from 1961-1990
Water Use Impacts on Ecosystem Quality
36
•In places where plant growth is water-limited, withdrawals of blue water may eventually reduce the availability of green water and thus diminish vegetation and plant diversity.
•Ecosystem Quality (EQ) is represented as the area-time ecosystem damage as a function of water use availability and potentially disappeared fraction of species.
Pfister, S; Koehler, A; Hellweg, S. Assessing the Environmental Impacts of Freshwater Consumption in LCA. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2009, 43, 4098-4104
Water Use Impacts on Human Health
37
•The damage induced by water consumption in a watershed or country is measured in disability adjusted life years (DALY) as outlined in the Eco-Indicator 99 method.
•The impact on human health is a function of expected specific damage per unit of water consumed
Pfister, S; Koehler, A; Hellweg, S. Assessing the Environmental Impacts of Freshwater Consumption in LCA. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2009, 43, 4098-4104
• Agricultural use accounts for over 70 percent of all human use of water.
• Agricultural water use is predominantly from rainfall.
• Water scarcity is experienced by humans as famine.
• Demand for food, feed, fiber and fuel from agriculture will double by 2050.
• We have to meet that need without one drop more of water, one hectare more of land.
• We must freeze the footprint of agriculture
Global Agricultural Water Use