massachusetts economic growth and challenges
TRANSCRIPT
Massachusetts Economic Growth and Challenges
January 30, 2020
Mark Melnik Ph.D.,
Director, Economic & Public Policy Research Group
UMass Donahue Institute
Massachusetts’ Economic Growth since the Recession
2
• MA has experienced prolonged economic growth since the end of the recession.
• What is driving economic growth in the state?
o Cutting-edge, Knowledge-based Industries (e.g., tech, life sciences, etc.)
o Research & Development
o Educated Workforce
o Foreign-born Labor
• MA economic success is not felt the same by everyone
• Spotlight on the South Shore region
• Current issues facing Massachusetts
3
Population Growth across the United States
UMass Donahue Institute. Source: Cumulative Estimates of the Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions,
States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 (NST-EST2019-02). U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Release Date:
December 30, 2019.
Cumulative Percent Population Change, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 by U.S. State
4
Natural Increase
International Migration
Domestic Migration
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
Natural Increase International Migration Domestic Migration
Estimated Components of Population Change
5
Massachusetts is a leader in job growth in the Northeast.
Change in Employment by State, 2010-2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics; UMDI analysis.
6
Unemployment rate is heading to historic lowMonthly Unemployment Rates in Massachusetts and the United States, January 2000-August 2019,
Seasonally adjusted
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Un
em
plo
yme
nt
Rat
e
Massachusetts United States
7
Unemployment rate is heading to historic lowMonthly Unemployment Rates in Massachusetts and the United States, January 2000-October 2019,
Not seasonally adjusted
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Un
em
plo
yme
nt
Rat
e
South Shore WDA
Massachusetts
United States
8
Massachusetts and U.S. Industry Mix, 2018
Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES-202; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. UMDI analysis.
Note: All Other includes: Utilities; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting; Mining, Quarrying, and Oil & Gas Extraction;
and Unclassified industries.
14.9%
8.7%
10.8%
6.4%
9.5%
8.7%
6.4%
4.1%
5.1%
5.1%
4.0%
3.1%
4.2%
2.0%
1.6%
1.9%
1.6%
2.0%
18.1%
10.1%
9.9%
9.2%
8.7%
6.8%
5.2%
4.8%
4.7%
3.8%
3.5%
3.4%
3.1%
2.7%
2.1%
1.9%
1.3%
0.7%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Health Care and Social Assistance
Educational Services
Retail Trade
Professional and Technical Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Manufacturing
Administrative and Waste Services
Finance and Insurance
Construction
Public Administration
Wholesale Trade
Other Services, Except Public Administration
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
All Other
Massachusetts United States
9
Massachusetts and South Shore Industry Mix, 2018
Sources: Massachusetts Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development, ES-202. UMDI analysis.
Note: All Other includes: Utilities; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, & Hunting; Mining, Quarrying, and Oil & Gas Extraction;
and Unclassified industries. South Shore is the South Shore Workforce Development Area (WDA).
17.7%
8.1%
13.0%
5.2%
10.0%
4.2%
4.6%
8.1%
6.9%
3.3%
3.4%
4.0%
2.0%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
1.6%
0.7%
18.1%
10.1%
9.9%
9.2%
8.7%
6.8%
5.2%
4.8%
4.7%
3.8%
3.5%
3.4%
3.1%
2.7%
2.1%
1.9%
1.3%
0.7%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Health Care and Social Assistance
Educational Services
Retail Trade
Professional and Technical Services
Accommodation and Food Services
Manufacturing
Administrative and Waste Services
Finance and Insurance
Construction
Public Administration
Wholesale Trade
Other Services, Except Public Administration
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
All Other
Massachusetts South Shore
10
NIH Research and Development
Sources: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health (NIH) Research Portfolio Online
Reporting Tools (RePORT), NIH Awards by Location & Organization, accessed 10/15/2019; UMDI analysis.
Top 5 State Leaders in NIH Funding (in $2018), 1998-2019
11
NIH Research and Development Per Capita
Sources: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Institutes of Health (NIH) Research Portfolio Online
Reporting Tools (RePORT), NIH Awards by Location & Organization, accessed 10/15/2019; U.S. Bureau of Economic Activity
(BEA), Regional Data GDP & Personal Income, SA1 Personal Income Summary, UMDI analysis.
Top 5 State Leaders in per capita NIH Funding (in $2018), 1998-2019
12
Entrepreneurship: Growth in Venture Capital
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/technology/moneytree.html
Massachusetts Venture Capital Funding, 2010-2019 by Quarter
13
Logan Airport Passenger Volumes Surging
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration Air Carrier Activity Information System (ACAIS),
Passenger Boarding (Enplanements) and All-Cargo Data for U.S. Airports; Retrieved from Wikipedia;
https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/. Years represent full calendar years (CYs).
Overall Passenger Volume in Logan International Compared to Airports of Similar Size, 2010-2018
14
Job growth has slowed statewide.
Annual Average Employment in Massachusetts by NAICS Supersector, 1990-2018
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), *Includes Mining & Natural Resources, Construction, Information, and Other
Services
15
The economy slowed in the fall but things have since
seemed to stabilize. AIM Business Confidence Index, December 2018-December 2019
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), *Includes Mining & Natural Resources, Construction, Information, and Other
Services
60.461.4
62.1 62.4
60.2 60.861.8 61.5 61.2
62.4 62.7 62.6 63.6
40
45
50
55
60
65
16
Canada, China, and Mexico are our top trading partners
for exports and imports.
$10.5
$7.9
$6.0
$4.1
$3.6
$3.0
$2.8
$2.3
$1.9
$1.8
$19.0
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20
Canada
China
Mexico
Germany
Japan
Ireland
United Kingdom
Switzerland
Italy
Republic of Korea
All Other
$Billions
Massachusetts’ 2018 Top Trading Partners (in $2018)
Source: WISERTrade; UMDI analysis
The state is performing well overall…
17
but these impacts are not felt evenly.
18
Part Time for Economic Reasons
Number of Part Time for Economic Reasons, Massachusetts (Thousands of Persons)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey; Dr. Alan Clayton-Matthews’ analysis
19
Unemployment by Educational Attainment
Population in Massachusetts 25 Years and over, 2010-2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017 1-Year Estimates; UMDI analysis
20
Massachusetts Population Growth, 2010-2018
Source: UMDI mapping analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018, Annual Estimates of
the Resident Population
State: 5.1%State: 5.1%
21
Source: UMDI mapping analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 2010 to 2018 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
(QCEW)
Massachusetts Employment Growth, 2010-2018
State: 12.5%State: 13.9%
The share of households that were cost burdened
increased between 1999 and 2010, and remained elevated
among renter households through 2017.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census (1999) and American Community Survey, 5-year estimates
(2013–2017)
23
Home Sale Prices by Region
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
200
0
200
2
200
4
200
6
200
8
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
ESSEX MIDDLESEXNORFOLK SUFFOLK
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
BRISTOL PLYMOUTH
BARNSTABLE WORCESTER
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
BERKSHIRE FRANKLINHAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE
Eastern Mass Southeast and Central Mass Western Mass
Source: 2000-2017 Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR)
Spotlight on the South Shore Region
24
25
South Shore and Other Major Regions
21%
34%
30%
15%
Greater Boston (2020)
22%
27%33%
18%
Massachusetts (2020)0-19 20-39 40-64 65+
26
South Shore at a Glance
22%
24%35%
19%
South Shore (2020)
• 8.6% of MA
Population
• 6.5% of Jobs in
MA
• 11% of Finance
Jobs in MA
• 9.4% of
Construction
Jobs in MA
• 3.5% UER in
January 2019
27
South Shore Inflow-Outflow Analysis, 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, On the Map. Note: South Shore is the South Shore Workforce Investment Area (WIA)
INFLOW121,099
Employed in South Shore, Live Outside
105,233
Employed and Live in South Shore
OUTFLOW183,970
Live in South Shore, Employed Outside
Top 10 Work Destinations
for North Central Residents
MunicipalityShare of
Workers
Boston 25.0%
Quincy 6.7%
Braintree 3.7%
Weymouth 3.3%
Cambridge 2.5%
Brockton 2.1%
Plymouth 1.3%
Newton 1.2%
Waltham 1.1%
Milton 1.0%
(30,000.00) (20,000.00) (10,000.00) - 10,000.00 20,000.00 30,000.00
00 through 04 Years
05 through 09 Years
10 through 14 Years
15 through 19 Years
20 through 24 Years
25 through 29 Years
30 through 34 Years
35 through 39 Years
40 through 44 Years
45 through 49 Years
50 through 54 Years
55 through 59 Years
60 through 64 Years
65 through 69 Years
70 through 74 Years
75 through 79 Years
80 through 84 Years
85 Years Plus
South Shore Population 2040
28
South Shore Population in 2010 Compared to Projected
Population in 2040
Source: UMass Donahue Institute Population Projections
(30,000.00) (20,000.00) (10,000.00) - 10,000.00 20,000.00 30,000.00
00 through 04 Years
05 through 09 Years
10 through 14 Years
15 through 19 Years
20 through 24 Years
25 through 29 Years
30 through 34 Years
35 through 39 Years
40 through 44 Years
45 through 49 Years
50 through 54 Years
55 through 59 Years
60 through 64 Years
65 through 69 Years
70 through 74 Years
75 through 79 Years
80 through 84 Years
85 Years Plus
South Shore Population 2010
Male Female
Current Issues Facing Massachusetts
• Housing affordability
• Aging population & attracting and retaining young workers
• Investment in public education and infrastructure
• Transportation reliability and rising congestion
• Business confidence in the state—tariffs, trade, uncertainty of
federal policy
• Geographic and social equity of economic opportunity
29
30
Mark Melnik, Ph.D.
Director of Economic & Public Policy Research
UMass Donahue Institute
One Beacon Street, Floor 31
Boston, MA 02108
(617) 287-3988
www.donahue.umassp.edu
Thank you!
UMass Donahue UMass Donahue Institute
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