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ドイツにおける「インダストリー4.0」とデジタル化の進展

Fujitsu Research Institute

Dr. Martin Schulz 2017.07.10

1 Copyright 2017 FUJITSU RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Outline

Industry 4.0 drives innovation in slowing markets

Digital Transformation – Bottom Up, Starting with Industry

Digital Innovation – Integration, Co-Creation and Skill Management


Industry 4.0

Industry 4.0 drives innovation in slowing markets


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Emerging

Markets

Other Mature

US

World

Potential Growth Rates (%) Labor Productivity Trends

Japan

Note: 10y moving averages. Source: IMF-WEO; OECD (2016). Note: Linear Trends. Source: Data from Conference Board (2016).

“New Normal” of much lower growth: Social ageing slows demand and innovation (Schulz)

New technologies are innovative, but not really revolutionary or efficient (Gordon)

Growth and Productivity have been Falling Everywhere


0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

OECD Patents Growth Declines with Ageing Workforce

Ageing workforce results

in decreasing demand

and supply for innovation

Innovative companies

react with product

exports and a “War on

Talent”

Patents

Growth

Young to

Old Ratio

Source: Data from Legge (2016).

Note: Patents per capita growth. Young = 15-34 years old. Old = 45-64 years old.

OECD Young/Old Population

OECD Patents Growth

US Young/Old

German Young/Old

US Patents

German Patents


Digital Transformation and Creative Distruction

Source: Fujitsu Journal (2016.1).

http://www.google.co.jp/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjn-5_8jsbTAhVGybwKHVxQDzYQjRwIBw&url=http://journal.jp.fujitsu.com/en/2016/01/12/01/&psig=AFQjCNHPNyOhvZZEFxOOLbmshGD0f6qr8w&ust=1493433223198295


German “Industry 4.0” Initiative: Gradual Shifts

Action Plan -Market Framework

-Stakeholder Network

-R&D Cooperation

-EU Horizon 2020

2002 - Export Boom

2004 - IT Investment

2006 - IT Platforms

2008 - Global Crisis

2010 - Ind. Recovery

2012 - EU Growth Crisis

2014 - Smart Services

2000 - IT Bubble US Internet Giants

Enterprise Software

Boom

Siemens buys UGS (PLM)

Industry Flexibility

I40 Initiative

Service Eco-Systems

Working Time Accounts

Time Industry Government

High-tech Strategy

Annual IT Summit

Industry Alliance

2016 - “New Normal” Digital Transformation


Digital Transformation – German Strength in Industry

Source: Platform Industrie 4.0

German Strength


産業用

プラットフォームスマート工場

製造業 20%

「デジタル化」するビジネスモデル

7% 消費財 29%

13%

消費者用

プラットフォームグローバルなユーザー・アクセス、市場、

標準、新たなビジネスモデル

スマート自動車.

1.5%

スマート機器 2.2%

スマート IT

1.2%

スマート農業 1.2%

スマート化学 2.2%

7% 7%

小売

運輸

ヘルスケア

政府

4% 水道事業等

IoS

サービスのインターネット化（パートナーとの共生システム）

IoT

モノのインターネット化（機器の統合化された運営）

IoT 市場シェア

出典: Data from IDC, Fraunhofer (2014)

IoT とインダストリー 4.0戦略

I40 生産性の増加

2010 2018

IoT 市場

の「革命」 +20% YoY

(市場規模)

1970 2030

Ind. 4.0 市場の「発展」 +1.5% YoY

(付加価値)

出典: Graphs: Acatech, Siemens.


インダストリー 4.0の付加価値

Productivity

Input

Reduction

Volume

Reduction

Operation

Efficiency

New Operations

Development

Output

Increase

Value

Increase

Volume

Increase

Structural

Change

New Products

Development

Innovation

Growth

Economy

Efficiency

Economy

Best Practice

Adoption

Product

Orientation

Service

Orientation


Innovation and Efficiency (TFP) is the Main Driver of Growth

Data from Conference Board (2016) – Total Economy Database.

German GDP Growth Contribution (%)

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Non-ICT Capital Contrib.

GDP Growth

TFP Productivity Growth

ICT Capital Contrib.


In Digitalization, Germany is No Leader

Source: EuroStat (2017) – DESI, EuroStat (2017) – E-business integration.

Note: Percent of companies.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Advertise

User Tracking

Big Data

Use Social Media

Cloud

Cloud DB

Cloud CRM

Cloud Infra

ERP

Supply Chain

e-Sales

e-Sales International

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

10 12 14 16 18 20 22

10

15

20

25

30

35

2014 2015 2016 2017

EU Business Digitization Index EU Digitalization Scoreboard

EU Connectivity Index

EU

Basic D

igital Skills (% P

op.)

EU

IC

T S

peci

alis

ts (%

Em

p.) EU DESI Country Index

Germany

EU28

Spain Holland

DE

NE

SP

DE

NE

SP

Germany

EU28

Spain

Holland


0 2 4 6 8

Cloud

Mobility

Industry 4.0

Innovation Readiness (Index 0-10)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Industry 4.0 User Preparation – Who is Ready?

Industry 4.0 Preparation remote maintenance, mobile workplaces (70%)

IT-based factory automation (70%), ERP (57%)

intelligent automation (machine ind. 31%; 80% car ind.)

…but 44% “not interested” (13% car industry)

Cloud (18% but 40% opposed)

SaaS (13% car industry, 2% machinery industry)

Note: Survey of 141 German mfg companies, 48% <250<500,

52% <500<5000 employees.

Source: Freudenberg IT (2014) - IT Innovation Readiness Index.

Industry Challenges

cost cutting, efficiency (80%)

time-to-market (60%)

growing customer demands (59%)

internationalization (57%)

sales optimization (52%) supply chain (46%)

Note: Survey of SMEs (<100 employees) and Mfg (<500<999).

Source: IDC (2015), Bloomberg (2015).

Mfg slowly upgrades “Legacy” Systems

Small Mfg fears the Cloud

Cloud Adoption (%)

SME

Mfg


Industry 4.0 Platform Development – Cases & Workgroups


Architectures,

Standards, and Norms

Working Groups

Research and Innovation

Security of Networked

Systems

Legal Framework

Work, Education,

and Training

Industry 4.0 Use-Cases - Horizontal and vertical integration

- Embedded intelligent systems

- Production facilities networked via IoT

- Self-managing products

- Digital engineering from start to finish


Industry 4.0 Platform Development – Cases

Database Map of Industry 4.0 Use Cases

http://www.plattform-i40.de/I40/Navigation/EN/InPractice/Map/map.html

http://www.plattform-i40.de/I40/Navigation/Karte/SiteGlobals/Forms/Formulare/EN/map-use-cases-

formular.html;jsessionid=D2BC5789FD136B3A26F125FAD2FEBC00





http://www.plattform-i40.de/I40/Navigation/Karte/SiteGlobals/Forms/Formulare/EN/map-use-cases-formular.html;jsessionid=D2BC5789FD136B3A26F125FAD2FEBC00












Cooperative Digital Engineering: Phoenix Contact, Rittal, Eplan

Source: Phoenix Contact, Rittal, Eplan (2016)

Standardized eCl@ss

Data and Description

Eplan Data Portal ->

3D-Prototyping ->

PLM/PDM ->

AutomationML ->

Digital Production

Virtual Prototype ->

- Data control NC-Machine

- Visual Guidance for Worker

Intelligent Control System ->

- Automatic Station Guidance

- RFID Parts Control

Industry 4.0 Production ->

- Individual Products, Config.

- Automatic Config., Testing

- Free Configuration Systems

- Automatic Programming Future

Technology

Intelligent

Production

Conventional

Production

Virtual

Engineering

Digital

Article

Switch Cabinet

Production


Industry 4.0 Platform Development – Workgroups

Architectures, Standards, and Norms


Industry 4.0 - eCl@ss Standard

2000 2003 2005 2014 2009

Foundation of

eCl@ss e.V.

public financed

SME projects

Internationali-

zation

ISO-datamodell

eCl@ss- advanced

Industrie 4.0

Source: IW (2014) - eCl@ss - make it easy


Industry 4.0 – eCl@ss Development by IW Cologne Institute

Washing Machine Properties

Property: 0173-1#02-AAD942#004

Loading Type

0173-1#07-BAD050#002

Front

0173-1#07-AAA355#002

Top

or



Industry 4.0 - eCl@ss Standard + AutomationML

► Composite equipment /

assembly groups

► characteristics

► of components

► of the complete

system

► Transfer of 3D-coordinates

► Supports construction

processes

► Block building

► Internalizes concepts

► Cardinality

► Replication of blocks

► Polymorphism

► Illustration of variants

► Intersectoral use requires additional

technologies

<?XML?> <FEATURE>

<FTEMPLATE>

<FT_IDREF>

0173-1#02-AAD972#003

</FT_IDREF>

<FT_NAME>

Capacity

cotton</FT_NAME>

</FTEMPLATE>

<FVALUE>5.5

</FVALUE>

<FUNIT>

0173-1#05-

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</FEATURE>



工場の自動化からサイバーフィジカルシステム (CPS)まで

Moxa Ethernet Switches (2009) L’Oreal - ABB Real TPI (2001), Moxa Virtual Machine - Pajic (2012)

インテリジェント自動化システム: コントロール

サービスプラットフォームソリューション: ERP, 人材

テクノロジー: 「インサイドアウト」統合「アウトサイド・イン」

セマンティクスインターフェース標準: ネットワーク

従来型システム IoTS 技術

MES PLM


富士通、ジーメンスデジタルビジネス・プラットフォーム

Source: Fujitsu (2015), The Finance (2016).

富士通MetaArc ジーメンスＰＬＭ

https://www.google.co.jp/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjyl__T0_3UAhXEe7wKHR7qDY4QjRwIBw&url=https://thefinance.jp/strategy/160629&psig=AFQjCNFujuAmpnaDqdsNneKfa5e2BcGZxA&ust=1499739584397649


I3.0 => I4.0 - Transformation


Industry 3.0 Industry 4.0

Vertical Integration?

Horizontal Integration?

End-to-End

Engineering?

Communication?


I4.0 - Reference Architecture – Vertical Integration


Industry 4.0 Hierarchy


I4.0 - Reference Architecture – Horizontal Integration


Industry 4.0 Layers


I4.0 - Reference Architecture – End-to-End Engineering


Industry 4.0 Value Stream


I4.0 - Reference Architecture – Smart Grid Communication

Source: Uslar, Engel (2015), Platform Industrie 4.0

Industry 4.0 Smart Grid Architecture Model (SGAM)


I4.0 - Reference Architecture – SGAM Model

Smart Grid Architecture Model (SGAM)

Apel (2013) – Smart Grid Architecture Model

Smart Grid Connection Point

Smart Grid Connection Point

Source: Uslar, Engel (2015), Platform Industrie 4.0


I4.0 - Reference Architecture – RAMI 4.0


Industry 4.0 Reference Architecture Model Industry 4.0 (RAMI 4.0)


Digital Transformation – Innovation

Digital Transformation – Complex Business Models, Co-Creation and Skills


Digital Strategy - Transformation at 3 Levels

Fujitsu Technology and Service Vision (2016)

Source: Fujitsu Technology & Service Vision (2016).


Case: ZF Automotive Supply Transformation

Source: Graphic from ZF drive Magazine 2015.01


Case: ZF Work and Learning Transformation

Education 4.0:

Academies,

Visualization, Analytics

(Visual Support, Feedback,

Benchmarking)

Office 3.0:

Skype for Business

(Telephones,

Meeting Rooms,

Mobile Workplaces)

Work 4.0:

Assistance Systems

(PTC Windchill PLM,

ThingWorx IoT)

External Integration:

Aftermarket,

Supplier Services

(Platforms, Academies for

Workshops & Partners)

Source: ZF drive Magazine 2015.01; ZF Presentation 2016.


Case: ZF University Integration

DHBW – Duale Hochschule

Baden Wuertemberg Vocation/Cooperative

State University

Zeppelin University Private University

(Management)

Friedrichshafen

ZF-DHBW InnoLab (for ZF Students)

ZF-Denkfabrik (Internal Startup)

Mobility Research/Solutions

Source: DHBW, ZU, ZF.


Old<->Young Skill Transfers are Key to Innovation

Learning + experience

leads to innovation and

growth

Old > young

innovation turns to

“sophistication”

Continuous innovation =

continuous learning,

skill management,

change -10

10

30

50

70

90

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

195

0

195

5

196

0

196

5

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5

202

0

202

5

203

0

203

5

204

0

204

5

205

0

10,000

Patents etc. %

Total

Population

Source: Data from UN, WIPO.

Note: UN Population Statistics estimates and low-fertility model. WIPO statistics for 1885-1979 and 1980-2014.

15-24 Old Population

50-59 Old Population

Patents, Trademarks, Designs, Models

Patents Innovation “Hump”

Japan Working Age Brackets & Patents


Bottom Line

Industry 4.0 is a “bottom up” approach to “Society 5.0”

Digital Transformation – Integration, Partnerships & Communication are Key

Digital Innovation – Co-Creation and Skill Management for Future Growth

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