masters leadership program october 8, 2014 san antonio, texas demographic characteristics and...
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Masters Leadership Program
October 8, 2014San Antonio, Texas
Demographic Characteristics and Trends, Texas and Bexar County
Topic Overview
• Population growth and geographic variation of population growth
• Migration patterns
• Race/ethnic composition and change
• Local demographic and socioeconomic characteristics
• Projected population growth
• Challenges for our future
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
DeafSmith
Roberts
Tyler
ValVerde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
SanAugustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
Trinity
Reeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
La Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
ComancheMitchell Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
JeffDavis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
JimWells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
FortBend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
SanJacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
3
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000Population*
2010Population*
NumericalChange
2000-2010
PercentChange
2000-2010
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.
65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population
Year* PopulationNumericChange
AnnualPercentChange
1950 7,711,194 -- --
1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4
1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7
1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7
1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0
2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3
2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1
2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8
2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2013
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates
Texas Population 1950-2010
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts
Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010
1950-1960
1960-1970
1970-1980
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
89.5%
86.7%
41.5%
65.9%
49.7%
53.7%
10.5%
13.3%
58.5%
34.1%
50.3%
46.3%
Natural Increase Migration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
7
Bexar County Foreign Born Population Comparisons for Texas Counties, 2006-2010
County
Total Population Foreign Born Population
Estimate Percent Hispanic Estimate Percent
of Total
PercentNon-
Hispanic White
Percent Hispanic
Percent of Total Hispanic
Bexar 1,650,052 58% 208,511 13% 8% 76% 17%
Collin 738,745 14% 126,739 17% 18% 32% 38%
Dallas 2,321,014 37% 533,817 23% 6% 73% 45%
Denton 628,084 18% 85,656 14% 14% 48% 37%
El Paso 772,280 82% 207,746 27% 3% 93% 31%
Fort Bend 541,983 24% 132,774 24% 11% 33% 34%
Harris 3,950,999 40% 987,697 25% 8% 70% 44%
Hidalgo 736,973 90% 215,709 29% 2% 96% 31%
Tarrant 1,743,300 26% 271,238 16% 10% 63% 38%
Travis 979,712 33% 175,449 18% 11% 64% 35%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2006-2010
One third of the top 40 fastest growing counties in the United States are in Texas, 2012 to 2013
U.S.Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2012 to 2013
2012 2013 Number Percent5 Kendall County, Texas 35,968 37,766 1,798 5.09 Fort Bend County, Texas 625,853 652,365 26,512 4.2
10 Hays County, Texas 169,013 176,026 7,013 4.111 Andrews County, Texas 16,137 16,799 662 4.113 Dimmit County, Texas 10,481 10,897 416 4.022 Comal County, Texas 114,590 118,480 3,890 3.423 Ector County, Texas 144,609 149,378 4,769 3.325 Ward County, Texas 10,887 11,244 357 3.328 Williamson County, Texas 456,359 471,014 14,655 3.232 Montgomery County, Texas 484,790 499,137 14,347 3.035 Denton County, Texas 708,050 728,799 20,749 2.939 Gaines County, Texas 18,393 18,921 528 2.9
Counties in bold had growth associated with oil and gas extraction.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates
One fourth of U.S. counties in the top 40 for numeric growth are in Texas, 2012-2013
U.S.Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2012 to 2013
2012 2013 Number Percent1 Harris County, Texas 4,253,963 4,336,853 82,890 1.9
6 Bexar County, Texas 1,785,787 1,817,610 31,823 1.8
8 Tarrant County, Texas 1,881,445 1,911,541 30,096 1.6
11 Fort Bend County, Texas 625,853 652,365 26,512 4.2
12 Dallas County, Texas 2,453,907 2,480,331 26,424 1.1
15 Travis County, Texas 1,096,246 1,120,954 24,708 2.3
22 Denton County, Texas 708,050 728,799 20,749 2.9
24 Collin County, Texas 834,674 854,778 20,104 2.433 Williamson County, Texas 456,359 471,014 14,655 3.235 Montgomery County, Texas 484,790 499,137 14,347 3.0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
DeafSmith
Roberts
Tyler
ValVerde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
SanAugustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
Trinity
Reeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
La Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
ComancheMitchell Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
JeffDavis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
JimWells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
FortBend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
SanJacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2013
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
POPESTIMATE2013
95-,10,000
10,001-50,000
50,001-100,000
100,000-500,000
500,001-1,000,000
1,000,001-4,400,000
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
DeafSmith
Roberts
Tyler
ValVerde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
SanAugustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
Trinity
Reeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
La Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
ComancheMitchell Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
JeffDavis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
JimWells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
FortBend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
SanJacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
Estimated Change of the Total Population by
County, Texas, 2010 to 2013
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates.
99 counties lost population over the three year period.
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
Nch1013
-800-0
1-1,000
1,001-20,000
20,001-80,000
80,000-228,000
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
Pctch1013
-0.106707 - 0.000000
0.000001 - 0.025000
0.025001 - 0.050000
0.050001 - 0.100000
0.100001 - 0.146341
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
POPESTIMATE2013
95-,10,000
10,001-50,000
50,001-100,000
100,000-500,000
500,001-1,000,000
1,000,001-4,400,000
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
DeafSmith
Roberts
Tyler
ValVerde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
SanAugustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
Trinity
Reeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
La Salle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
ComancheMitchell Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
JeffDavis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
JimWells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
FortBend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
SanJacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2013
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf
Pctch1013
-11-0%
0.1-2.5%
2.51-5%
5.1-10%
10.1-14.7%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 Vintage Population Estimates.
13Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Texas Economic Indicators, February 2014
14
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010
NH White53%
NH Black12%
NH Other
4%
Hispanic or Latino
32%
2000
NH White45%
NH Black11%
NH Other
6%
His-panic or Latino38%
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
16
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic
Age
Popu
latio
n
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
17
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Under 1 year4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
NH White Male NH White Female
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
18
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Under 1 year4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male Hispanic Female NH Black FemaleNH Asian Female NH Other Female
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
19
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Under 1 year4 years8 years
12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years
100 to 104 years
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male NH White FemaleHispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
20
Bexar County Texas United States
Total Percent Total Percent Total Percent
Total 1,686,452 100 24,774,187 100 306,603,772 100
Hispanic (any race) 985,329 58.4 9,216,240 37.2 49,215,563 16.1
White (non-Hispanic) 517,320 30.7 11,349,192 45.8 196,730,055 64.2
Black (non-Hispanic) 116,306 6.9 2,856,383 11.5 37,449,666 12.2
Asian (non-Hispanic) 37,060 2.2 927,023 3.7 14,333,034 4.7
Other (non-Hispanic) 8,436 0.5 127,105 0.6 3,172,877 1.1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2011 American Community Survey, DP05
Racial and ethnic composition Bexar County, Texas and the United States, 2007-2011.
21
Percent of the population that is minority race/ethnicity by block group, 2010
22
Hispanic population in Bexar County by block groups for 2010
Source: Census 2010
23
Black non-Hispanic population in Bexar County by census blocks for 2010
Source: Census 2010
24
Percent of students participating in bilingual education by school district, 2011
Source: Texas Education Agency, 2012
25
Percent of the CLF employed in management, business, science, and arts, Census Tracts, 2007-2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2007-2011
Legend
ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS
DP3_HC03_VC41 Percent; OCCUPATION - Management, business, science, and arts occupations
0-20%
21-30%
31-45%
46-60%
61-100%
26
Percent of the CLF employed in natural resources, construction, and maintenance, Census Tracts, 2007-2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2007-2011
Legend
ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS
DP3_HC03_VC44 Percent; OCCUPATION - Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations
0-10%
11-20%
21-30%
31-40%
41-53%
$18,000-30,000
$ 30,000-35,000
$ 35,000-40,000
$40,000-50,000
$ 50,000-76,000
Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
28
Percent of households with annual income greater than $200,000, Census Tracts, 2007-20011
Legend
ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS
DP3_HC03_VC84 Percent; INCOME AND BENEFITS (IN 2011 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS) - $200,000 or more
0-5%
5.1-10%
10.1-20%
20.1-35%
35.1-64%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2007-2011
29
Percent of households with annual income less than $10,000, Census Tracts, 2007-20011Legend
ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS
DP3_HC03_VC75 Percent; INCOME AND BENEFITS (IN 2011 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS) - Less than $10,000
0-5%
5.1-10%
10.1-20%
20.1-35%
> 35%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2007-2011
30
Mean travel time (minutes) to work, Census Tracts, 2007-2011
Legend
ACS_11_5YR_TRACT_48_TEXAS
DP3_HC01_VC36 Mean travel time to work
5 - 20
21-30
31-45
46-60
61-107
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2007-2011
Percent of population aged 25 years and older
with Bachelors degree or higher. 2005-2009Percent 25 + with Bachelors
6-15%
15-20%
20-25%
25-35%
35-50%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
32
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050
20102012
20142016
20182020
20222024
20262028
20302032
20342036
20382040
20422044
20462048
205020,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000Zero.5 of 2000-20102000-2010
Migration Scenarios
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections
33
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050
20102013
20162019
20222025
20282031
20342037
20402043
20462049
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
NH-WhiteNH-BlackHispanicNH-Other
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
34
Bexar County Projected Growth by Race and Ethnicity, 2010-2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
NH WhiteNH BlackHispanicNH Other
Source: 2010 Census and Texas State Data Center, 2009
35
Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
F6
-6,200 - 0
1 - 2,000
2,001 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 -3,480,000
36
Projected Percent Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050
Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Legend
tl_2010_48_county10
F5
LT 0%
0-40%
41-100%
101-250%
251-500%
37
Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011
Level of Educational Attainment
Percent of persons aged 25 years and older
State Ranking
High school diploma or equivalency or greater
81.1% 48/49/50 (tied with CA
and MS)Bachelors or greater 26.4% 29
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.
Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –
High School Graduates and Above
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201150%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
WhiteBlackHispanicOther
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011
39
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates,
Texas
Less
than High Sc
hool
High School o
r Equiva
lent
Some Colle
ge / Asso
ciate D
egree
Bachelor's
Degre
e
Graduate or P
rofessi
onal Degre
e0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
15.0%
23.8%
31.3%
20.1%
9.8%
18.1%
24.0%
29.9%
18.7%
9.3%
2011 ACS 2030 Constant 2011 %
Educational Attainment
Perc
ent o
f the
Civ
ilian
Lab
or F
orce
These should be going DOWN These should be going UP
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
40
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended
Rates, Texas
Less
than High Sc
hool
High School o
r Equiva
lent
Some Colle
ge / Asso
ciate D
egree
Bachelor's
Degre
e
Graduate or P
rofessi
onal Degre
e0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
15.0%
23.8%
31.3%
20.1%
9.8%11.4%
20.4%
34.3%
22.1%
11.8%
2011 ACS
2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend)
Educational Attainment
Perc
ent o
f the
Civ
ilian
Lab
or F
orce
These should be going DOWN These should be going UP
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario
41
42
Teen Birth Rate by State, 2010
Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Rank State Birth rate per 1,000 women ages 15-19
1 Mississippi 552 New Mexico 52.93 Arkansas 52.54 Texas 52.25 Oklahoma 50.46 Louisiana 47.77 Kentucky 46.28 District of Columbia 45.49 West Virginia 44.8
10 Alabama 43.6
43
2010 Birth Rates by Zip Code & School District Boundaries (Births per 1,000 females ages 15-19)
Zip Codes with < 5 births are not included
Source: http://www.healthyfuturestx.org
44
Teen Birth Rates (females ages 15-19) 1994 - 2010
Source: http://www.healthyfuturestx.org
45
Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections
46
Prevalence of Unhealthy Weight Children by School District-Bexar County 2011-12
District Total tested Unhealthy weight
Percent unhealthy
weight
EAST CENTRAL ISD 4,837 2,340 48.4%
EDGEWOOD ISD 5,841 3,335 57.1%
FT SAM HOUSTON ISD 873 278 31.8%
JUDSON ISD 10,573 4,557 43.1%
NORTH EAST ISD 46,803 18,342 39.2%
NORTHSIDE ISD 53,232 22,285 41.9%
SAN ANTONIO ISD 23,711 12,751 53.8%
SOMERSET ISD 1,247 701 56.2%
SOUTH SAN ANTONIO ISD 5,491 3,058 55.7%
Total 152,608 67,647 44.3%
In 2011-2012 school year: a Healthy Weight equals BMIs ranging from 13.9 to 25.1 in boys and from 13.6 to 25.1 in girls (across age and from the low to the high end of the Healthy Fitness Zone)FITNESSGRAM includes Grades 3-12 *Unit of measure for BMI is kg-m2 Analysis by San Antonio Health DepartmentFERPA masked scores, which occur when there are fewer than 5 students in any category, have not been counted in these calculations.
47
Demographics and Destiny
48
Contact
Office: (210) 458-6530 or (512) 463-8390Email: [email protected]
Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us
Lloyd B. Potter, Ph.D.