matilda el-khoury, undp project manager

Matilda El-Khoury, UNDP Project Manager

Lebanon’s GHG Profile

CDM Investors Forum UNEP-RISO, CD4CDM Project

Apex-Conseil, Jerba-Tunisia, 22-24 Sept 2004

R e p u b l i c o f L e b a n o n

U n i t e d N a t i o n s D e v e l o p m e n t P r o g r a m m e

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Introduction

• Lebanon Ratified the Climate Change Convention in Dec. 1994, but has not yet ratified the Kyoto Protocol;

• The CC Focal Point in Lebanon is the Ministry of Environment;

• With respect to CC activities, Lebanon has effected one national communication to the UNFCCC (Base Yr 1994) and has made one inventory update (Base Yr 1999); Lebanon has also launched two GEF funded energy efficiency projects;

Area: 10,452 Km2

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Country Background

Population Forests

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Country Background

Agriculture Industry

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CO2 Index for 1994 and 1999

Year 1994 Year 1999

Population [millions] 3.73 4.13

GDP [millions $] 9136 7980

Fuel Imports [million tons] 4,19 4,96

Net CO2 Emissions [million tons] 13,803 16,253

CO2/Capita 3.7 3.9

• The CO2 emissions increased by 17.8% bet. 1994 and 1999;

• The CO2/Capita increased by 5.4% bet. 1994 and 1999;

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Emissions Breakdown for 1994 and 1999

Year 1994 (Gg) Year 1999 (Gg)

CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CH4 N2O

Total Energy 11,678.7 1.379 0.1157 14,783.5 1.54 0.141

Industrial Process 1,924.06 0 0 1,916.05 0 0

Agriculture 0 7.979 3.015 0 7.412 2.983

LUCF 200.414 0.253 0.00168 - 445.96 0.295 0.00203

Waste 0 42.804 0 0 34.8 0

Total Net 13,803.2 52.415 3.132 16,253.5 44.05 3.126

• The Energy sector is the largest contributor of CO2 (85%);

• The Waste sector is the largest contributor of CH4 (83%);

• The Agricultural sector is the largest contributor of N2O (96%);

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CO2 Breakdown for 1994 and 1999

11,669

4,584

1,916

-446-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Energy Sector TransportSector

IndustrialProcesses

LUCF

1999 CO2 breakdown:

• 59% energy* sector

• 27% Transport sector

• 11% Ind. Processes

• -3% LUCF

7,728

3,950

1,924

2000

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Energy Sector TransportSector

IndustrialProcesses

LUCF

1994 CO2 breakdown:

• 56% energy* sector

• 29% Transport sector

• 14% Ind. Processes

• 1% LUCF

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I - Power Sector: Description

• Jurisdiction: Ministry of Energy and Water Resources

• Electric Generation: Public Sector (EDL) 77%; Private Generation 15%; Imports from Syria: 8% (850 KWh in 1999)

• EDL: Installed Power 2348 MW; Available Operational Power 1600 to 1800 MW;

• EDL operates 8 thermal plants and 5 hydroelectric plants. The power generation from hydroelectric dropped from 786 KWh in 1998 to 331 KWh in 1999;

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I - Power Sector: Description

• Despite improvements in the distribution network, power shortage is still wide spread;

• The yearly growth in electric energy demand in Lebanon over the next 10 years is estimated to be about 3-5%.

• Recently the Lebanese Parliament passed a law to privatize the generation and distribution sectors of the power utility. Accordingly these sectors will be sold to private companies, with the transmission sector kept under the EDL control and management.

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I - Power Sector: Emissions

• In 1999, the electric energy consumption reached 9032 GWh with corresponding primary energy and electric energy densities of 0.32 koe/$ and 0.65 kWh/$, respectively. The per capita electric energy consumption is 2.42 MWh/year.

• The electric power sector is one of the main sources of GHG emissions. In1994, this sector has contributed around 30% of all CO2 emissions and 33% in 1999.

Emissions Index Year 1994 Yr 1999



CO2 emissions [million tons] 4.14 5.36

CO2/capita 1.11 1.29

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I - Power Sector: Mitigation Potential

The Mitigation scenarios assessed include:

Improving supply mix through renewable energy (<10%)

Fuel substitution by natural gas

CO2 1994-2004 2005-2040

Demand growth Rate

4% 6%

Baseline 39,644 741,450 1,200,870

Mitigation Scenario 1 5% Solar (2005-2010)

10% Solar (2010-2040)

711,498 1150002

Mitigation Scenario 2 Natural Gas (as of 2005)

624,738 949,878

The assessment revealed that Fuel substitution by natural gas can provide emissions reduction by 117 million tons of CO2 and 251 million tons of CO2 for demand growth of 4% and 6%, respectively; and the improvement of supply mix through renewable solar energy (<10%) can provide around 30 million tons of CO2 emissions reduction.

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II - Transport Sector: Description

Land Transport• Fleet size: ~ 1.3 million registered

vehicles, 75% of which are cars; • Fleet age: ~ 70% of the vehicles are

> 15 yrs old; • Car ownership rate: ~ 3

persons/car;• Railway Transport: Non-operable;• Public Transport: 38,000 vehicles

(taxis, buses and mini-vans)• Reliance on Public Transport: Low• Road Network: 22,000 Km (of

which 15% are international roads);• Road Network Jurisdiction: • 30% classified → MPWT; 70% non

classified → MOM;

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II - Transport Sector: Description

Air Transport• Total No. of Flights: 27,878• Total No. of Passengers:

2,222,344 – Target: 6 million passengers

• Freight: 52,439 Tons

Sea Transport• Four Sea Ports: Beirut,

Tripoli, Sydon, Sour;• Beirut Sea Port: docking of >

2,800 ships;

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II - Transport Sector: Emissions

• The Largest Emissions Contributor in the Transport sector is gasoline;

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II - Transport Sector: Emissions

• The overall import of transport related fuels increased by 12.7% between 1994 and 1999;

• The CO2 emissions increased by 15.7% between 1994 and 1999; • Leaded gasoline fuel was the main fuel used for land transport

until 2001, when the Government introduced cost incentives, and starting July 2002, leaded fuel became officially banned.




Transport fuel import [tons] 1,429,619 1,611,157

CO2 emissions [million tons] 3,996 4,584

Non-CO2 emissions [million tons] 0,483 0,530

CO2/capita 1.07 1.11

CO2/GDP [g/$ of GDP] 437 574

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II - Transport Sector: Mitigation potential

The mitigation scenarios assessed include:

• Introduction of hybrid electric vehicles (<10%)

• Introduction of mass transport system

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III - Industrial Sector: Description

• Number of Industrial facilities: 22,000

• Types of Fuel used: fuel oil and LPG for boilers and furnaces; diesel oil for local power generation.

• The 1999 statistics show a 2% growth over 1994;

• The main industries in the country include: Building materials industry, food and beverage industry, clothing and textile industry, and furniture and manufactured products.

• The total industrial output for 1998 was USD 3,953 billion, and the value added was about USD 1.707 billion.

• The Industrial sector generates about 188,850 tons of industrial solid waste annually;

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III - Industrial Sector: Emissions

• In 1994, the energy consumption figures reached about 970 ktoe, releasing 1924 Gg of CO2. The energy for heat and power, including around 149 ktoe used for local electricity generation, represents 15.9% of total fuel used in industry;

• In 1999, the sector released 1916 Gg of CO2, in addition to other GHG such as CO (0.003 Gg), and SO2 (1.12 Gg);

• In 1994, the Industrial sector was responsible for 14% of all CO2 emissions in Lebanon, and 11% in 1999;




CO2 emissions [million tons] 1,924 1,916

CO2/capita [kg/capita] 515.5 463.9

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CO2

Emissions from Industrial Sources (1999)

Soda Ash Use, 0.13%

Lime Production,

0.79%

Iron/Steel Production,

26.99%

Cement Production,

72.10%

CO2 1916 Gg

CO 0.003 Gg

N2O 0.013 Gg

NMVOC 106.717 Gg

SO2 1.12 Gg

HFC’s 0.252 Gg

III - Industrial Sector: Emissions

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III - Industrial Sector: MitigationIII - Industrial Sector: Mitigation Potential

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IV – Other sectors

Building sector: • In 1999, the building sector consumed around 4111 GWH, constituting

38% of the total electricity consumed in the country and around 740 toe, constituting 13.8% of the total amount of fuel consumed in 1999. The sector has witnessed a growth rate of around 8.5% in electricity consumption and 5.4% in fuel consumption;

Waste management:• Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)

makes up about 90% of the total solid waste generated in Lebanon.

• Lebanon generated about 1,44 million tons of MSW in 2001 (about 3,940 tons per day), or about 0.92 kg per person per day, and emits around 78% of all methane emitted.

• Organic waste is by far the single largest component of MSW, representing over 63% of the total MSW quantity in GBA and slightly over 50% at the national level.

Thank you for your attention

For more information, please contact:

Ministry of Environment: www.moe.gov.lb

UNDP Environment Unit: www.undp.org.lb

UNDP EEB Project: [email protected]

References: Lebanon’s First National Communication to the UNFCCC; Lebanon’s Climate Change Enabling Activity, phase II; Lebanon’s Master-plan Study.

matilda el-khoury, undp project manager

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