matthew gardner economic report
DESCRIPTION
Seattle Economist is optimistic for Seattle\'s Eastside economy & housing.TRANSCRIPT
Economic & Real EstateEconomic & Real EstateTrends and OutlookTrends and Outlook
dPresented toWindermere Eastside
February 8th, 2011815 Western Avenue, Suite 400
Seattle, WA 98104
206.442.9200
y
Presented by:Matthew Gardner
Managing Principal
H W B H B f ?Have We Been Here Before…?Not Necessarily!
U.S Economic OutlookU.S Economic Outlook
Fact 1.Fact 1.Fact 1.Fact 1.The Economy is Growing.The Economy is Growing.The Economy is Growing.The Economy is Growing.
GDP Growth ForecastGDP Growth ForecastBelow Par Growth, but 5.0
6.0
Growth None the Less! 2 0
3.0
4.0
Less!
I Want to 0.0
1.0
2.01 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 f) f) f) f)
See Growth Above the Historic 3% 3 0
-2.0
-1.0
2003
-Q
2003
-Q
2003
-Q
2003
-Q
2004
-Q
2004
-Q
2004
-Q
2004
-Q
2005
-Q
2005
-Q
2005
-Q
2005
-Q
2006
-Q
2006
-Q
2006
-Q
2006
-Q
2007
-Q
2007
-Q
2007
-Q
2007
-Q
2008
-Q
2008
-Q
2008
-Q
2008
-Q
2009
-Q
2009
-Q
2009
-Q
2009
-Q
2010
-Q
2010
-Q
2010
-Q
2010
-Q
2011
-Q
1 (f
2011
-Q
2 (f
2011
-Q
3 (f
2011
-Q
4 (f
Historic 3% Average.
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
Source: Gardner Economics LLC & BEA
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
% annualized growth rate-7.0
-6.0
Fact 2.Fact 2.Fact 2.Fact 2.We Are Creating Jobs.We Are Creating Jobs.gg
U.S. Job Losses U.S. Job Losses Have Turned Have Turned PositivePositive
4,000
Positive…Positive…
2,000A Recovery Appears to Be U d
-2 000
0Underway; However, the Pace of
-4,000
-2,000Improvement is Under Par.
-6,000
-8,00012-month payroll job changes; in thousands
Source: BLS – Seasonally Adjusted Figures – Data through January 2010
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
11%600 000
Monthly U.S. Payroll ChangeMonthly U.S. Payroll Change
10%
11%
300 000
400,000
500,000
600,000Net Jobs Added
Unemployment Rate
Need 150,000-175 000 N
9%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
Rate
ed175,000 New Positions Per Month for Unemployment
7%
8%
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
nem
ploy
men
t
Net
Jobs
Add
e
Rate to Drop.
Recent Declines Due to So Called
6%
-600,000
-500,000
-400,000
300,000 U“Disenchanted” Workers. This Will Likely Push Up Again Before
4%
5%
-900,000
-800,000
-700,000
,Up Again Before It Comes Down.
Source: BLS – Seasonally Adjusted Figures – Data Through January 2011
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
How Many Years to Get the How Many Years to Get the J b M k B k N l?J b M k B k N l?Job Market Back to Normal?Job Market Back to Normal?
Jobs added per month
Assumed new jobs needed for growing
population perHow many years?
population per month
100 000 100 000Treading water
and never back to100,000 100,000 and never back to normal!
200,000 100,000 6.3 yearsy300,000 100,000 3.2 years400,000 100,000 2.1 years
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Private Sector Showing Private Sector Showing Job Growth!Job Growth!Job Growth!Job Growth!
400
The Private Sector Added 0
200
Jobs EveryMonth Since Last March
-200
020
05 -
Jan
2005
-A
pr
2005
-Ju
l
2005
-O
ct
2006
-Ja
n
2006
-A
pr
2006
-Ju
l
2006
-O
ct
2007
-Ja
n
2007
-A
pr
2007
-Ju
l
2007
-O
ct
2008
-Ja
n
2008
-A
pr
2008
-Ju
l
2008
-O
ct
2009
-Ja
n
2009
-A
pr
2009
-Ju
l
2009
-O
ct
2010
-Ja
n
2010
-A
pr
2010
-Ju
l
2010
-O
ct
000’
s
Last March.-400
In 0
-800
-600
Source: BLS – Seasonally Adjusted Figures – Data Through January 2011
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011-1,000
Monthly payroll job changes
Upswing In the Job Upswing In the Job Market Market Apparent?Apparent?
We Have Swung
Apparent?Apparent?
1.0%
1974 1981 1990
2001 2008
Swung Upward but It Will Take
1 0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Empl
oym
ent
Years To get Back to Pre-Recession -2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
elat
ive
to P
eak
Eth
Levels.
Is the -4.5%
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
ativ
e Jo
b Lo
ss R
eM
ont
Is the Recovery √-shaped?
-6 5%
-6.0%
-5.5%
-5.0%
Perc
ent C
umul
a
Source: BLS & Gardner Economics –Data through January 2011
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
-7.0%
-6.5%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
P
Number of Months After Peak Employment
Fact 3.Fact 3.Fact 3.Fact 3.Consumer Confidence, Although Consumer Confidence, Although , g, g
Low, is Clearly Off the Bottom.Low, is Clearly Off the Bottom.
Consumer ConfidenceConsumer Confidence200
160
180
200ConfidencePresent SituationExpectation Index
Expectations Have 120
140
160 Expectation Index
Improved, as has Overall Confidence. 80
100
Nice Uptickin January! 40
60
0
20
0 0 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0
Source: Conference Board – Data through January 2011
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Jan-
00
Aug-
00
Mar
-0O
ct-0
May
-02
Dec
-02
Jul-0
3
Feb-
04
Sep-
04A
pr-0
5
Nov
-05
Jun-
06Ja
n-07
Aug-
07
Mar
-08
Oct
-08
May
-09
Dec
-09
Jul-1
0
U.S. Economic ForecastU.S. Economic Forecast
• Moderate GDP Expansion 2 5% in the Next 2• Moderate GDP Expansion 2.5% in the Next 2 Years. (Historical Average is 3%.)
• 1.5 Million Job Additions Annually in the Next 2 Years.
• Unemployment Rate of 8% in 2012… and back to a Normal 6% by 2015.back to a Normal 6% by 2015.
• Inflation Concerns?
U.S. Real EstateU.S. Real Estate
Fact 4.Fact 4.Fact 4.Fact 4.3030--Year Fixed Mortgage Rates are Year Fixed Mortgage Rates are g gg g
Still at Generational LowsStill at Generational Lows
9 00%
3030--Year Fixed Mortgage RatesYear Fixed Mortgage Rates
8.00%8.50%9.00%
The Fed Started Buying Fannie & Freddie Debt
(QE2)
6 50%7.00%7.50%
Fannie & Freddie Debt.Suppresses Rates, but the Recent
5.50%6.00%6.50%the Recent
Increase is Due to Better than
4 00%4.50%5.00%
10-Year Treasury Yield
than Expected Economic
3.00%3.50%4.00%
9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0
yAlmost Hits 4%News.
Dec
-99
Mar
-00
Jun
-00
Sep
-00
Dec
-00
Mar
-0Ju
n-0
Sep
-0D
ec-0
Mar
-02
Jun
-0Se
p-0
2D
ec-0
2M
ar-0
3Ju
n-0
3Se
p-0
3D
ec-0
3M
ar-0
4Ju
n-0
4Se
p-0
4D
ec-0
4M
ar-0
5Ju
n-0
5Se
p-0
5D
ec-0
5M
ar-0
6Ju
n-0
6Se
p-0
6D
ec-0
6M
ar-0
Jun
-0Se
p-0
7D
ec-0
Mar
-08
Jun
-08
Sep
-08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun
-09
Sep
-09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
Dec
-10
Source: Freddie Mac –Month End Figures Through January 6, 2011.
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
11 00%
3030--Year Fixed Mortgage RatesYear Fixed Mortgage Rates
9.00%
10.00%
11.00%4-Year Forecast
6 00%
7.00%
8.00%Mortgage Rates Have to Increase
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%Eventually as Economic Growth
2.00%
3.00%Growth Stimulates Inflationary P
0.00%
1.00%
990
991
992
993
994
995
996
997
998
999
000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
010
prj
prj
prj
prj
Pressures.
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 2020
11
2012
20
13
2014
Source: Gardner Economics & Freddie Mac
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Fact 5.Fact 5.Fact 5.Fact 5.I’m Not the Only Economist WhoI’m Not the Only Economist WhoI m Not the Only Economist Who I m Not the Only Economist Who
Sees a Better Future!Sees a Better Future!
MacromarketsMacromarkets Surveys 100 Economists about Surveys 100 Economists about h H P i O l kh H P i O l kthe Home Price Outlook.the Home Price Outlook.
Expected Home Price Change by YearExpected Home Price Change by Year(Case Shiller Index)
Year YoY Change Cumulative2010 -1.13% -1.13%2011 0 17% 1 27%2011 -0.17% -1.27%2012 1.94% 0.69%2013 2 86% 3 61%2013 2.86% 3.61%2014 3.45% 7.21%2015 3.67% 11.18%2015 3.67% 11.18%
Fact 6.Fact 6.Fact 6.Fact 6.LongLong--Term Path to Self Reliance Term Path to Self Reliance ggMay be Helped from LongMay be Helped from Long--Term Term
Housing Wealth Gains.Housing Wealth Gains.
Median Family Net WorthMedian Family Net Worth20072007
$250 000
$300,000
2007
20072007
2010 data to be published
in 2012 by2001 2004
$200,000
$250,000 2007
in 2012 by the Federal
Reserve. 1995
1998
$150,000
$100,000
1995 1998 2001 2004
$50,000
2007
Source: Federal Reserve
$0
Renter HomeownerEconomic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
The Seattle AreaThe Seattle AreaEconomyEconomy
Seattle’s Employment SituationSeattle’s Employment Situation
40
60
0
20
40
Year-over-Year we See E l t
-20
00
00
- J
an
00
0 -
Ju
l
00
1 -
Jan
00
1 -
Ju
l
00
2 -
Jan
00
2 -
Ju
l
00
3 -
Jan
00
3 -
Ju
l
00
4 -
Jan
00
4 -
Ju
l
00
5 -
Jan
00
5 -
Ju
l
00
6 -
Jan
00
6 -
Ju
l
00
7 -
Jan
00
7 -
Ju
l
00
8 -
Jan
00
8 -
Ju
l
00
9 -
Jan
00
9 -
Ju
l
01
0 -
Jan
10
- J
uly
Employment Growth, but Improvement i Still U d
-60
-40 20 20
20 20
20 20
20 20
20 20
20 20
20 20
20 20
20 20
20 20
20
20
1is Still Under Par.
-100
-80
-120Source: BLS – Seasonally Adjusted – Through December 2010
12-month payroll job changes; in thousandsEconomic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Private Sector EmploymentPrivate Sector Employment
40
60
Gains Regionally
0
20Regionally have Been Driven by th P i t
-20
02
00
0 -
Jan
20
00
- J
ul
20
01
- J
an
20
01
- J
ul
20
02
- J
an
20
02
- J
ul
20
03
- J
an
20
03
- J
ul
20
04
- J
an
20
04
- J
ul
20
05
- J
an
20
05
- J
ul
20
06
- J
an
20
06
- J
ul
20
07
- J
an
20
07
- J
ul
20
08
- J
an
20
08
- J
ul
20
09
- J
an
20
09
- J
ul
20
10
- J
an
20
10
- J
ulythe Private
Sector, Where We H S
-60
-40 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Have Seen Positive Growth Si L
-100
-80Since Last August.
-120Source: BLS – Not Seasonally Adjusted – Through December 2010
12-month payroll job changes; in thousandsEconomic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Local Employment SituationLocal Employment Situation
4,600Professional & Business Services
NET EMPLOYMENT CHANGE BY NAICS CLASSIFICATION
Declines are Improving.
I H t1,300
1,700
2,400
Information
Education & Health Services
Trade
I am Happy to See Growth in the Professional
-100
-100
1,300
Leisure & Hospitality
State Government
Other Manufacturing
Professional Services & InformationSectors -1,000
-600
-600
Federal Government
TWU 1/
Local Government
Sectors.
-2,200
-1,200
-1,100
Financial Activities
Other Services
Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing
Source: WA State – Seasonally Adjusted YoY Growth - Data Through December 2010
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
-5,300
-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
Construction
Unemployment Rate Still Below Unemployment Rate Still Below the National Averagethe National Averagethe National Averagethe National Average
1.0% PERCENTAGE POINTS ABOVE/(BELOW) NATIONAL RATE
In a Holding 0.2%
0.4%0.5%
0.4%0.5%
Pattern for Now. -0.1%
-0.4% -0.4%
-0.2% -0.2%-0.3%
-0.4%-0.5%
0.0%
-0.9%
-0.5%
-0.8%-0.7%
-1.0%
-0.8%-0.8%-1.0%
-1.6%
-1.8%
-1.6%
-1.5%
SOURCE: BEA & WA ESD
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
-2.0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
We Will Start Regaining Jobs This We Will Start Regaining Jobs This YearYearYearYear
HISTORIC AND PROJECTED ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
EmploymentG th Will
60,000
80,000
Growth Will be Slow, but Still Positive.
40,000
YMEN
T
0
20,000
EMPL
OY
-20,000
SOURCE: WA ESD & Gardner Economics Forecast
-40,000
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
f20
12 fEconomic & Real
Estate ForecastFebruary 8 2011
Puget Sound Employment SituationPuget Sound Employment Situationg p yg p y
Job Growth Will Be From the Center Out.
We Will Still Fare Better Than All West Coast States.
Job Drivers? The 5 B’s…..
Th S l ATh S l AThe Seattle AreaThe Seattle AreaResidential MarketResidential MarketResidential MarketResidential Market
Case Shiller IndexCase Shiller Index
Year SeattleSan
FranciscoLos
AngelesSan
Diego MiamiLas
Vegas PhoenixYear Seattle Francisco Angeles Diego Miami Vegas Phoenix
2000 6.7% 28.6% 10.1% 16.3% 8.9% 5.4% 5.9%
2001 4.6% -4.3% 8.8% 10.0% 12.5% 7.7% 5.3%
2002 3 9% 13 8% 18 0% 19 9% 14 0% 7 1% 4 6%
Some Areas That Saw the Biggest 2002 3.9% 13.8% 18.0% 19.9% 14.0% 7.1% 4.6%
2003 7.4% 9.0% 20.6% 18.5% 13.3% 17.0% 7.9%
2004 11.4% 19.1% 22.8% 25.1% 22.2% 42.3% 20.4%
2005 17 1% 13 6% 20 7% 6 3% 28 9% 10 6% 42 0%
Corrections are Showing Improvement.
2005 17.1% 13.6% 20.7% 6.3% 28.9% 10.6% 42.0%
2006 11.2% -1.2% 1.5% -3.8% 4.7% 0.5% -0.1%
2007 0.5% -10.6% -13.3% -14.6% -17.1% -15.0% -14.8%
11 8% 29 2% 23 6% 22 9% 26 8% 29 4% 31 2%
I am Not a Fan of this Index!
2008 -11.8% -29.2% -23.6% -22.9% -26.8% -29.4% -31.2%
2009 -4.4% 9.6% 2.9% 5.4% -6.5% -16.9% -4.0%2010 YoY
-4.71% 0.44% 0.62% 2.1% -3.54% -3.48% -6.35%YoY
SOURCE: S&P Case Shiller –Non-Seasonally Adjusted - YTD Data through Nov. 2010
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
h l hh l hWhere Are We Relative to the Where Are We Relative to the Past?Past?Past?Past?
Resale Inventory LevelsResale Inventory LevelsKi CKi C
b
King CountyKing County12,000
December Inventory = 6 868 Units 8 000
10,000
6,868 Units.
Last There in 6,000
8,000
Jan ‘10 and May ‘07.
2 000
4,000
0
2,000
02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 0 0
Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-1
Oct
-1
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Resale Inventory LevelsResale Inventory LevelsE idE id
b
EastsideEastside4,500
December Inventory = 2 268 Units 3 000
3,500
4,000
2,268 Units.
Last There in 2,000
2,500
3,000
Jan ‘10 and December ‘07
1,000
1,500
,
07.
0
500
02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 0 0
Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-1
Oct
-1
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Resale Sales TransactionsResale Sales TransactionsKi CKi C
b
King CountyKing County3,500
December Sales = 1 200 Units 2,500
3,000
1,200 Units.
Classically 1 500
2,000
Cyclical Pattern but Now Off the
1,000
1,500
Now Off the Bottom
0
500
02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 0 0
Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-1
Oct
-1
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Resale Sales TransactionsResale Sales TransactionsE idE id
December EastsideEastside
1,200
Sales = 403 Units.
800
1,000
Another Classically 600
800
Cyclical Pattern, but Clearly Off 200
400
Clearly Off the Bottom.
0
200
02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 0 0
Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-1
Oct
-1
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Average List PricesAverage List PricesKi CKi CKing CountyKing County
$800,000
List Prices are Still In Decline
$700,000
$750,000
Decline.
Last Seen in $600,000
$650,000
April ‘04.$500,000
$550,000
$400,000
$450,000
02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 0 0
Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-1
Oct
-1
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Average List PricesAverage List PricesE idE id
$
EastsideEastside$1,200,000
At $845,000, List Prices are Back at $1,000,000
$1,100,000
are Back at October 2004 Levels.
$800 000
$900,000
$700,000
$800,000
$500,000
$600,000
02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 0 0
Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-1
Oct
-1
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Average Sale PricesAverage Sale PricesKi CKi C
$
King CountyKing County$650,000
$456,0000 in December; $500 000
$550,000
$600,000
December; last Seen July 2005. $400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$300,000
$350,000
,
$200,000
$250,000
02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 0 0
Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-1
Oct
-1
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Average Sale PricesAverage Sale PricesE idE id
$ i
EastsideEastside$900,000
$609,000 in December; Prices have $700 000
$800,000
Been Bouncing Around but we Can See
$600,000
$700,000
Can See Tangible Improvement.
$400 000
$500,000
$300,000
$400,000
02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10
Source: NWMLS & Gardner Economics LLC – SF Resale Product
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-0
Oct
-0
Apr
-1
Oct
-1
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Transactions by TypeTransactions by TypeKi CKi CKing CountyKing County
Housing Transaction Volume By Type
Distressed Units Have
51575,000
6,000
Units Have Increased but Sales
37803971
3,000
4,000
Appear to be Slowing.
9721297
826 812
2,000
582 591 434670
972
447826 812
0
1,000
Sep '08 to Dec '08 Sep '09 to Dec '09 Sep '10 to Dec '10
Source: Gardner Economics LLC
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Sep 08 to Dec 08 Sep 09 to Dec 09 Sep 10 to Dec 10
Resale New Foreclosure Fore. Sale
Transactions by TypeTransactions by TypeKi CKi CKing CountyKing County
Further Declines in
10.62%12.23%
8.16%
Sep '08 to Dec '086.66%12.47%
Sep '10 to Dec '10
Declines in New Construction
12.23%
19.91%
Activity.
68.99%
60.96%
New
Resale
Foreclosure
Source: Gardner Economics LLC
Economic & Real Estate Forecast
February 8 2011
Fore. Sale
Real Estate Real Estate ConclusionsConclusions
• Buyers Are Still Looking For Deals & Uncertainty Remains?Uncertainty Remains?
• Continued Job Growth Will Add Confidence to the Market.
• Uncertainty in the Condo Market Remains• Uncertainty in the Condo Market Remains.
Real Estate Real Estate ConclusionsConclusionsContCont….….
Price Stability Should Continue with the• Price Stability Should Continue with the Eastside Fairing Better than Most.
• Expect Transactional Velocities to Be Modestly Higher than 2010Modestly Higher than 2010.
• Distressed Units Will Still Weigh on the Market.
• Interest Rate Increases May Get Buyers Off• Interest Rate Increases May Get Buyers Off the Fence.
Punxsutawney Phil Saw His Shadow Punxsutawney Phil Saw His Shadow Y d S I P di i E l ThY d S I P di i E l ThYesterday, So I am Predicting an Early Thaw Yesterday, So I am Predicting an Early Thaw
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