The Local Data CompanyMatthew Hopkinson 26th February 2014

More Clicks, Less Bricks?

#HighStreet

‘People are supposed to fear the

unknown, but ignorance is bliss when

knowledge is so damn frightening.”

Laurell K. Hamilton, The Laughing Corpse

Current state of GB Retail

Role of Data

National, Regional and Sectors Insights

Partnership Insights

Summary

Today’s Agenda

Q & A

Methodology

• 7,000+ locations

• Field visited

• 60,000 visits a month

Seeing is believing!

7,000LOCATIONS TRACKED

NATIONWIDE

COVERAGE

554,096BUSINESSES TRACKED

850TOWNS

1,124RETAIL PARKS

897SHOPPING CENTRES

Some of the clients who We Service

Consumer Confidence

Source GfK

Media Interest

High Street Reviews

Breaking News!

✚

748 stores 459 stores

-3% (22 store closures) -8% (40 store closures)

42% on High Street 72% on Retail Parks

All Change!

The car is KING!

FAILURES CLOSURES OPENINGS

Change Afoot!

Destination v Decimation

Vacancy rates

North v South

Greater

London

GB Shop Vacancy 2008-2013

4,04,55,05,56,06,57,07,58,08,59,09,5

10,010,511,011,512,012,513,013,514,014,515,0

20

08

-12

20

09

-02

20

09

-04

20

09

-06

20

09

-08

20

09

-10

20

09

-12

20

10

-02

20

10

-04

20

10

-06

20

10

-08

20

10

-10

20

10

-12

20

11

-02

20

11

-04

20

11

-06

20

11

-08

20

11

-10

20

11

-12

20

12

-02

20

12

-04

20

12

-06

20

12

-08

20

12

-10

20

12

-12

20

13

-02

20

13

-04

20

13

-06

20

13

-08

20

13

-10

20

13

-12

2013 GB Retail & Leisure (All) Vacancy Rates

11,90

12,00

12,10

12,20

12,30

12,40

12,50

12,60

2013-01 2013-02 2013-03 2013-04 2013-05 2013-06 2013-07 2013-08 2013-09 2013-10 2013-11 2013-12

National Vacancy Rates

Regional Change 2012-2013

Region Area 2013 Vacancy 2012 Vacancy Change

North West West End, Morecambe 32.9 27.2 5.8

Wales Newport, Monmouthshire 28.9 27.3 1.6

North West Bolton 27.8 21.6 6.2

North East Hartlepool 27.7 27.3 0.3

North West Bootle 27.0 23.3 3.7

North West Church Street, Runcorn 26.8 27.6 -0.8

West Midlands Walsall 26.7 25.4 1.3

West Midlands West Bromwich 26.6 24.3 2.3

North East Stockton-on-Tees 26.3 23.7 2.6

North West Eccles 25.8 26.1 -0.2

Vacancy – GB’s Worst Performing Towns

Vacancy- GB’s Best Performing Towns

Region Area 2013 Vacancy 2012 Vacancy Change

Greater London Highgate 0.0 4.7 -4.7

East Midlands Eastgate, Lincoln 1.3 2.6 -1.3

South East Molesey Lock 1.4 4.3 -2.9

Greater London Barking Road West 1.6 3.3 -1.7

Greater London St. John’s Wood 1.6 4.0 -2.4

Greater London Askew Road, Hammersmith 1.8 5.2 -3.4

West Midlands Shirley Street, Solihull 1.8 3.4 -1.7

West Midlands Thornton Heath 1.8 5.1 -3.3

North East Woodford Green 1.8 5.3 -3.5

North West Debden 2.0 0.0 2.0

Town Centre Shop Vacancy – 3 year change

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

More than -

20%

Neg 10-19% Neg 5-9% Neg 4-1% Flat 0% Pos 1 - 4% Pos 5-9% 10-20% Pos 20% +

North v South Divide?

Regional Groupings 2013 v 2012

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

North (NW, NE, Y&H) Midlands & East South (SW & SE) London

North West Average Vacancy % 17.4

North West Average Retail Park Vacancy % 10.1

North West Average Shopping Centre Vacancy % 19.3

Averages - NW v SE

South East Average Vacancy % 11.8

South East Average Retail Park Vacancy % 6.3

South East Average Shopping Centre Vacancy % 14.3

The Ruling Class?

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

St David's Cardiff

Liverpool One

Trafford Centre

Trinity Leeds

Meadowhall

Bullring

Metro Centre

Braehead

Westfield London

Shop Vacancy Rates

Brands

As a consumer, you want to associate with brands whose powerful presence creates a halo effect that rubs off on you.

Tom Peters

The way customers relate to brands and how profit is generated has changed so dramatically almost every professional is being challenged to reconsider what they do in order to stay relevant.

Simon Mainwaring

Openings & Closures

Openings & Closures (Net Change) 2009-2013

-1,00

-0,50

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

All

Openings & Closures (Net Change) 2009-2013

-3,00

-2,00

-1,00

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Multiples

Independents

The last 3 years – top 650 Town Centres

143,960 openings and closures

Net Change % Units Net Change

Comparison -4.32 -3,083

Convenience 5.10 830

Leisure 2.29 1,200

Service 3.84 1,993

Total 0.49 940

BUT

Multiples = -1,741 (-2.35%)

Independents = +2,681 (+2.28)

Risers 2013 GB wide

Fallers 2013 GB Wide

Footfall attractors – Fashion & Clothing

Footfall attractors – anchor tenants

Footfall attractors – new kids on the block!

Scotland’s Towns – Case study

Partner research with University of Stirling (Professor Leigh Sparks) in

2013 on top 100 towns.

What is the retail scale and make-up of Scottish towns and cities?

2. How variable are Scottish towns and cities in their retailing?

3. How significant is retail vacancy?

4. Can we explain some of the patterns found?

Retail Types: BMGC (Booze, Money, Gambling, Charity)

City Off

Licence

Pawnbroker Bookmaker Cheque

Centre

Charity

Shop

Index

Aberdeen 0.16 0.08 1.47 0.41 2.61 4.73

Dundee 0.34 0.46 1.38 0.46 1.84 4.48

Stirling 0.0 0.98 1.72 0.49 0.49 3.68

Inverness 0.62 0.42 1.25 0.62 0.21 3.12

Perth 0.37 0.19 1.12 0.56 0.19 2.42

Glasgow 0.2 0.26 0.73 0.18 0.35 1.72

Edinburgh 0.44 0.1 0.49 0.13 0.28 1.44

Source:LDC and University of Stirling

“Change is inevitable. Change is

constant.”

Benjamin Disraeli

Best Total Diversity

Town Diversity Index

1 Central London 0.87

2 Edinburgh 0.61

3 Brighton and Hove 0.59

4 Glasgow 0.55

5 Nottingham 0.53

6 Bath 0.51

7 York 0.51

8 Bristol 0.50

9 West London 0.50

10 Norwich 0.49

Town Diversity Index

11 Manchester 0.49

12 Derby 0.47

13 Exeter 0.47

14 Leicester 0.46

15 Cheltenham 0.46

16 Tunbridge Wells 0.46

17 Scarborough 0.45

18 Liverpool 0.45

19 Harrogate 0.45

20 Salisbury 0.44

Worst Total Diversity

Town Diversity Index

1 Milton Keynes 0.23

2 Ilford 0.24

3 Wood Green 0.25

4 Oldham 0.26

5 Weymouth 0.26

6 Peckham 0.26

7 Stockton-on-Tees 0.26

8 St. Helens 0.26

9 Wigan 0.26

10 Scunthorpe 0.26

Town Diversity Index

11 Luton 0.27

12 Burnley 0.27

13 Torquay 0.27

14 Walthamstow 0.27

15 Sutton 0.28

16 Brixton 0.28

17 Richmond, London 0.28

18 Putney 0.29

19 Paisley 0.29

20 Rugby 0.29

Milliband Index

Summary

• More business failures/closures to come = more empty premises

• Significant variance in performance by location and type

• NEW AGE Technology is driving consolidation

• OLD AGE Property costs deterring occupation

• ‘All inclusive’ locations will get the consumers

• What can be done with the 15% + vacancy locations?

• Knowledge and understanding of national trends applied locally is key

• Ignore consumers at your peril!

“To open a shop is easy, to

keep it open is an art.”

Chinese Proverb

Thank you!

matthew@localdatacompany.com

@matthehopkinson

(0) 20 3111 4393

www.localdatacompany.com

BRINGING DATA ALIVE!