may 2012 a major shift in the political landscape results from the april 2012 national survey
TRANSCRIPT
May 2012
May 2012
A Major Shift in the Political LandscapeResults from the April 2012 National Survey
May 2012
Methodology
National Survey
– April 2 – 20, 2012
– 2,000 national face-to-face interviews: 500 interviews in
each of the following regions: Baghdad, South, West, and
North – national results weighted representatively
– Margin of error +/- 2.2 percent on full sample, +/- 4.4
percent on regional samples; +/- 2.9 on total Non-North
sample
Page 2
May 2012
Shift in Country Mood Benefits Maliki
Page 3
May 2012
A significant positive shift in the country mood
Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120
20
40
60
45
4141
37
48
44
50 50 50
44
Right direction Wrong direction
Page 4
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?
U.S. Withdrawal
May 2012
Only North sees a drop in right direction
Total Baghdad South West North0
20
40
60
80
48 50
65
3526
4435 32
5864
Right Wrong
Page 5
∆ from
Oct ’11 +11 -6 +1 +5 +23 -20 +19 -10 -21 +24
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?
May 2012
Perceptions of an improving economy help positive mood
Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120
20
40
60
46
3433
52
38
5549
34
Strong Weak
Page 6
Would you say Iraq’s economy right now is strong or weak?
May 2012
Positive mood brings significant jump in Maliki job approval
Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120
20
40
60
4040
39
34
5354 54 5358
44
Approve Disapprove
Page 7
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nouri al-Maliki is doing as prime minister?
U.S. Withdrawal
May 2012
T B S NIN
ADa'
Sad ISC
0
20
40
60
80
100
53 57
83
30
1017
99
75 72
4439
16
64
8780
1
2328
Approve Disapprove∆ approve
Oct. ’11 +19 +12 +34 +11 +1 +11 +7 +32 +14
Maliki job approval up across regions and voter groups
Page 8
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nouri al-Maliki is doing as prime minister?
May 2012
Significant jump in Maliki favorable ratings
Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Apr-120
20
40
60
41
34 3431
4547 47
51 49
41
% Favorable % Unfavorable
Page 9
Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.
U.S. Withdrawal
May 2012
Total Baghdad South West North Shia Non-Kurd Sunni
Kurd-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
4554
73
21 3
66
14 5
41
35 17
58
78
23 67
76
% Favorable % UnfavorableΔ favorable
Oct ’11 +14 +13 +28 +4 -1 +20 +12 -3
Maliki favorability dramatically improves among base
Page 10
May 2012
Maliki has strongest rating of non-north pols | Non-North
Maliki Sadr Jaafari Hakim Allawi Nujaifi Amiri Mahdi Hashemi Mutlaq-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
52 4833 32 31 24 13 17 18 17
35 3348 48
57 50 53 5972 73
% Favorable % Unfavorable
Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (NON-NORTH ONLY)
Page 11
Δ favorable
Oct ’11 +17 +7 +7 +8 -2 +6 N/A -5* +2 -1
* Last asked in November 2010
May 2012
Maliki improves across all issues; outperforms Da’wa vote
Helping the poor
Cares about people like you
Acting like a dictator
Can unite Iraq
Can bring political stability
Creating jobs
Fights corruption
More interested in power than helping
Can end sectarianism
Improving basic services
Improving security
0 20 40 60 80 100
22
22
27
29
30
32
32
34
37
39
49
10
10
2
7
5
4
6
3
5
3
3
23
19
2
17
12
15
16
5
14
12
8
26
28
47
26
34
24
31
38
23
25
16
19
21
22
21
19
25
15
20
21
21
24
Maliki Hakim Sadr All/none/other/DK/ref Allawi
Page 12
For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-Hakim; or Muqtada al-Sadr? (NON-NORTH ONLY)
∆ Maliki Jul ’11
+22
+20
+11
N/A
+15
+13
+14
+5
N/A
+8
+9
∆ Allawi Jul ’11
-6
-6
-8
N/A
-10-5
-6
-7
N/A
-6
-4
Da’wa non-North vote: 26% INA non-North vote: 14%
May 2012
Iraqis looking for a strong leader, despite drawbacks
Total Baghdad South West North Shia Non-Kurd Sunni
Kurd0
20
40
60
80
100
74 7380 82
45
7783
48
14 16 138
2815 7 23
Page 13
Statement 1: It is more important to have a strong leader to keep Iraq stable, even if that means giving up some freedoms.
Statement 2: It is more important to ensure social and political freedoms in Iraq, even if that means some instability.
I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.
May 2012
More want to continue with Maliki’s direction
Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-120
20
40
60
28
39
53
47
I want to continue in the direction Nouri al-Maliki is taking Iraq.
I want to go in a very different direction than Nouri al-Maliki is taking Iraq.
Page 14
Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each one, I want you to tell me which choice comes closer to your point of view.
May 2012
Significant increase in Da’wa support
Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120
10
20
30
22 20 21
1412
22
16 18
16
22
8 910
10 10
6 57 6
4
6 88
13 11
Iraqi National Accord Islamic Da'wa Party Sadr Trend ISCI Und/DK/Ref
Page 15
Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.
U.S. Withdrawal
May 2012
Da'wa INA Sadr IFND ISCI NRT (No vote)
(Und/ref)0
10
20
30
22
1210
5 42
1311
30
12 12
6 6
20
10
Page 16
Da’wa’s growth even stronger among likely votersPlace a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.
Δ likely voters
Oct ’11 +8 -1 -1 -2 -2 -- -- --
May 2012
Da’wa separates from other parties in South, Baghdad
Baghdad South West0
10
20
30
40
27
38
9
16
6
23
1315
59
51
2
1
16
Islamic Da'wa Party Iraqi National Accord Sadr Trend ISCI IFND
Page 17
Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today.
Δ Oct. ’11 +4 -4 -- +1 -1 +15 -3 -3 -3 +1 -- -- +2 -1 -1
May 2012
Majority continues to want new parliamentary elections
Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-120
20
40
60
80
6258
64
21 24 22
Support Oppose
Page 18
As you may know, some people have proposed holding early parliamentary elections to solve the current political instability. Do you support or oppose holding new parliamentary elections in the near future?*
*Before April 2012, wording was: “As you may know, some people have proposed holding early parliamentary elections, perhaps within the next year. Do you support or oppose holding new parliamentary elections in the near future?”
May 2012
Total Baghdad South West North Shia Non-Kurd Sunni
Kurd0
20
40
60
80
52
39 42
64
76
41
6876
35 34
50
28
7
46
20
11
Approve Disapprove
Page 19
Openness to new PM; only South disapprovesI'm going to read you a list of some things that have happened or that might happen in Iraq. For each one, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event.
A new prime minister being selected as a means to end the political conflict
May 2012
5 Critical Issues that Can Impact Trend
Page 20
May 2012
5 Critical Issues that Can Impact the Trend
1. Failure to address jobs and basic services concerns
May 2012
Sectarianism
Political instability
Education
Infrastructure development
High prices
Corruption
Security
Basic services like electricity and water
Jobs and unemployment
0 20 40 60
5
6
8
10
17
23
27
42
55
Jobs and services continue to be top concernsPlease tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.
Page 22
∆ Oct. ’11
-4
+7
--
-7
+7
+1
-1
-2
--
May 2012
Security
Corruption
Basic services
Jobs and unemployment
0 20 40 60 80
9
54
6
58
19
10
71
62
47
19
29
47
28
31
31
51
Baghdad West South North
Jobs a concern across all regions, services in SouthPlease tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.
Page 23
May 2012
Perception of jobs and electricity remain extremely weakPlease tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (NON-NORTH ONLY)
Page 24
Job opportunities
Electricity supply
Corruption
Distribution of oil revenues
Political instability
Interfence of countries in Iraq's internal affairs
Housing
Development of the oil industry
Water supply
Sectarianism
Security
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
89
77
76
68
70
65
62
44
50
42
42
10
16
18
19
21
25
31
37
44
47
56Worse Better
* Last asked in November 2010
∆ better Oct. ’11
+19
+9
-8*
n/a
-8
+13
-1
n/a
+6
-4
+1
May 2012
Total Baghdad South West North0
20
40
60
80
100
25 24
6
23
80
6964
92
68
15
Better Worse
Page 25
∆ Oct’11 -1 -- -22 +18 -- -1 +9 -11 +18 -18
Electricity supply varies by region; worst in SouthPlease tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (ELECTRICITY SUPPLY)
May 2012
5 Critical Issues that Can Impact the Trend
1. Failure to address jobs and basic services concerns
2. Sunni insecurities intensify
May 2012
Sunnis still most pessimistic about country direction
Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120
20
40
60
80
59
4145
44
60
32
21 24
11
26
49
71
49 48
30
Shia right directon Non-Kurd Sunni right direction Kurd right direction
Page 27
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (RIGHT DIRECTION ONLY)
May 2012
Corruption
Basic services
Jobs and unemployment
Security
0 20 40 60
47
11
56
11
18
54
57
23
22
31
47
48
Non-Kurd Sunni Shia Kurd
Security and jobs concerns dominate among SunnisPlease tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.
Page 28
∆ Sunni Oct. ’11
+3
-13
+14
-17
May 2012
Majority of Sunnis (and Kurds) see sectarianism worsening
Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-120
20
40
60
80
27
36 36 36
4752
71
58
28
36
5661
Shia worse Non-Kurd Sunni worse Kurd worse
Page 29
Please tell me if you think sectarianism is getting better or worse in Iraq. (WORSE ONLY)
May 2012
A Sunni majority now see Iraq as a divided country
Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd0
20
40
60
80
35
23
585356
68
38
26
Page 30
Statement 1: Iraq is mostly a divided country.
Statement 2: Iraq is mostly a unified country.
I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.
∆ Mar’11 +12 -2 +6 +1 +29 -15 +10 --
May 2012
Worries about Maliki power grab among Sunnis and Kurds
Total Shia non-Kurd Sunni Kurd0
20
40
60
80
46
36
69
58
3241
171214 14
7
23
Too much power Just the right amount Not enough
Page 31
Do you believe that al-Maliki has too much power, just the right amount, or not enough power?
∆ too much
Mar. ’11 +10 +5 +6 +43
May 2012
Sunnis see Maliki as power-grabbing; lay blame
Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni
Kurd Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni
Kurd0
20
40
60
80
51
68
30
9
3546
1424
37
22
61 66
4637
68
54
Page 32
Statement 1: As prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki's priority has been to maintain order and security.
Statement 2: As prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki's priority has been to consolidate his power.
I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.
Statement 1: Members of parliament are more to blame for the current political crisis.
Statement 2: Prime Minister al-Maliki is more to blame for the current political crisis.
May 2012
Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Shia Non-Kurd Sunni0
20
40
60
80
100
26
53
14
59
74
47
86
41
Maliki Others/all/none/DK
Sunnis see Maliki interested in power, acting like dictator
Page 33
For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-Hakim; or Muqtada al-Sadr? (NON-NORTH ONLY)
More interested in preserving his own power than helping the
people
Acting like a dictator
May 2012
Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni
Kurd Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni
Kurd0
20
40
60
80
58
79
15
39
29
14
64
40
29
14
69
37
59
76
23
39
Approve Disapprove
Page 34
Hashemi case divisive; contributes to Sunni concernFor each one, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event.
Kurdish leaders allowing Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi to stay in Kurdistan
Filing charges against Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi
May 2012
Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd0
20
40
60
80
45
58
2126
41
29
6156
Better Worse
Page 35
Most Sunnis see judicial independence worseningPlease tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq.
Independence of Iraq’s judges and courts
May 2012
Sunnis skeptical about Iraq’s democratic credentials
Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd0
20
40
60
80
45
59
12
32
45
33
75
49
Page 36
Statement 1: Iraq today is a real democracy.
Statement 2: Iraq today is not a real democracy.
I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.
∆ Oct ’11 +2 -1 +13 -10 -4 +6 -41 +28
May 2012
Sunnis strongly feel Allawi does not have enough power
Total Shia Non-Kurd Sunni Kurd0
20
40
60
80
11 13 4 10
2836
1320
42
30
73
49
Too much power Just the right amount Not enough
Page 37
Do you believe that Ayad Allawi has too much power, just the right amount, or not enough?
∆ not enough
Mar. ’11 +1 -9 +6 +32
May 2012
Allawi favorability weak, but stable
Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120
20
40
60
48 48
37
29 28
37 35
44
5156
% Favorable % Unfavorable
Page 38
Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.
May 2012
Total Baghdad South West North Shia Non-Kurd Sunni
Kurd-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
28 2613
59
1116
71
12
5665
75
26
51
72
16
50
% Favorable % UnfavorableΔ favorable
Oct ’11 -1 -5 -7 +8 +7 -6 +3 +7
Allawi favorability slightly declines; improves among base
Page 39
May 2012
INA support continues to fall among Sunnis
Oct-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120
10
20
30
40
50
32
42 46
3530
11
17 18
23
19
7
7
48
6
9
5
5
18
20
Iraqi National Accord IFND Und/DK/Ref Would not vote
Page 40
Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (NON-KURD SUNNIS ONLY)
May 2012
5 Critical Issues that Can Impact the Trend
1. Failure to address jobs and basic services concerns
2. Sunni insecurities intensify
3. Disaffected Shias shifting support
May 2012
“Disaffected Shia” defined
“Disaffected Shia” = Demographic group that has shown previous frustration with Maliki and the government and openness to supporting Sadr
Shia
Urban
Under 400,000 dinar/month
16 percent of total sample
May 2012
Maliki’s favorability jumps among “Disaffected Shia”
Sadr Maliki Jaafari Hakim Nujaifi Allawi Hashemi Mutlaq-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
62 5543 37
18 15 1 118 32 41 45 54
7488 89
% Favorable % Unfavorable
Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.
Page 43
Δ favorable
Oct ’11 +1 +14 -17 +6 +9 -1 -32 -6
May 2012
Maliki improves on key issues | “Disaffected Shia”
Cares about people like you
Helping the poor
Creating jobs
Improving basic services
Improving security
0 20 40 60 80 100
23
28
36
50
59
12
6
5
3
3
32
36
25
20
16
27
20
27
16
14
6
10
7
11
8
Maliki Hakim Sadr All/none/other/DK/ref Allawi
Page 44
For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Ayad Allawi; Ammar al-Hakim; or Muqtada al-Sadr?
∆ Maliki Jul ’11
+23
+17
+15
+9
+5
∆ Sadr Jul ’11
-4
+4
+5
+13
+8
May 2012
Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120
10
20
30
40
8
14 12
67
40
25 29
20
29
15 1518
22
17
75
11
477 9 9
15 15
Iraqi National Accord Islamic Da'wa Party Sadr Trend ISCI Und/DK/Ref
Page 45
Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (DISAFFECTED SHIA ONLY)
U.S. Withdrawal
Maliki support jumps, Sadr drops among “disaffected Shia”
May 2012
5 Critical Issues that Can Impact the Trend
1. Failure to address jobs and basic services concerns
2. Sunni insecurities intensify
3. Disaffected Shias shifting support
4. Ability for opposition groups to emerge and build a strategic campaign
May 2012
Total Baghdad South West North0
20
40
60
80
68
46
7680
58
21
34
2112 16
Approve Disapprove
Page 47
Openness to opposition group with alternative proposalsPlease tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event.
A group of political parties declaring themselves as opposition within the Council of Representatives and proposing policy alternatives different from
those set forth by the government
May 2012
Opposition actions | looking for watchdogs, alternatives
0 20 40 60 80 100
55
57
57
61
62
63
63
63
63
69
81
82
86
85
87
85
85
86
88
89
Much more favorable Somewhat more favorable
Page 48
Imagine that certain members of the CoR made an announcement declaring that they are forming an opposition group within the Council of Representatives. For each action, please tell me how it would make you feel towards this group -- would it make you feel much more favorable, somewhat more favorable, just a little more favorable, or no more favorable?
Closely monitor the govt's actions and make public missteps, bad policies, or corrupt practices.
Propose alternative policies for creating jobs, providing basic services, and fighting corruption.
Hold a monthly question and answer session with government ministers to hold them accountable.
To create more jobs, propose a 5-point economic plan that shows specific steps the gov’t needs to take.
Weekly media briefings to discuss what the government did and what were its successes and failures.
Conduct a listening tour to hear concerns and then present those concerns & solutions to the government.
A series of public meetings to listen to people’s concerns and provide the gov’t with policy alternatives.
Organize a group to monitor gov’t actions and make public missteps, bad policies, or corrupt practices.
To end pol. divisions, propose a 5-point reconciliation plan that shows steps the gov’t needs to take.
Hold a series of public debates between government opposition leaders so citizens hear opposing views.
May 2012
Total Baghdad South West North0
20
40
60
80
66
53
7971
41
2027
15 17
29
More likely Less likely
Page 49
Opposition actions would likely increase supportAssuming an opposition group did some of the things you just heard, would you be more likely or less likely to vote for members of this group in the next election?
May 2012
5 Critical Issues that Can Impact the Trend
1. Failure to address jobs and basic services concerns
2. Sunni insecurities intensify
3. Disaffected Shias shifting support
4. Ability for opposition groups to emerge and build a strategic campaign
5. North’s divisions with Baghdad intensify
May 2012
Significant shift in North’s perception of Iraq’s direction
Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120
20
40
60
80
50
67
5247
26
37
25
37 40
64
Right direction Wrong direction
Page 51
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (NORTH ONLY)
May 2012
North now has doubts about Iraqi democracy
Total Baghdad South West North0
20
40
60
80
45 44
69
2030
45 48
26
65
52
Page 52
Statement 1: Iraq today is a real democracy.
Statement 2: Iraq today is not a real democracy.
I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view.
∆ Oct. ’11 +2 -1 +4 -1 +18 -13 -5 +2 -38 +27
May 2012
North most supportive of more autonomous regions
Total Baghdad South West North0
20
40
60
80
100
27
1117
39
5867
82 82
59
19
Approve Disapprove
Page 53
Please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that event.
Leaders from Anbar, Diyala and Salah al-Din asking for the establishment of an autonomous region for their governorate
May 2012
Majority still see Kurdistan heading in right direction
Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120
20
40
60
80
100
84
7274 78
65
921 22
15
30
Right direction Wrong direction
Page 54
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?
May 2012
Security
Corruption
Basic services
Jobs and unemployment
0 20 40 60 80
9
54
6
58
19
10
71
62
47
19
29
47
28
31
31
51
Baghdad West South North
Jobs and corruption concerns dominate in NorthPlease tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the government to address.
Page 55
May 2012
Corruption and jobs continues to worsen in NorthPlease tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. (NORTH ONLY)
Page 56
Corruption
Job opportunities
Political instability
Distribution of oil revenues
Sectarianism
Development of the oil industry
Housing
Security
Electricity supply
Water supply
-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
79
79
63
61
60
47
43
38
15
7
15
17
27
26
28
28
48
56
80
89Worse Better
∆ better Oct. ’11
+12
+18
+4
-15
n/a
-6
n/a
-16
+5
-4
May 2012
Helping the poor
Improving basic services
Fights corruption
Ending sectarianism
Uniting Iraq
Cares about people like you
Bringing independence to Kurdistan
Can bring political stability
Creating jobs
Improving security
Making Kurdistan stronger
0 20 40 60 80 100
3638
3133
26343533
403943
13
12
211
0
03
1
2119
2330
5232
2638
2932
25
12923
114
1418
127
612
3031
2224
16192017
242019
N. Barzani* Maliki All/none/other/DK/ref Mustafa Salih
Barzani/KDP strong on jobs, weak on corruption
Page 57
For each one please tell me which political leader the phrase best describes: Nouri al-Maliki; Nechirvan Barzani*; Barham Salih; or Nawshirwan Mustafa? (NORTH ONLY)
* Before April 2012, asked Massoud Barzani; April 2012 onward, asked Nawshirwan Barazani
PUK north vote: 21% KDP North vote: 42%
May 2012
Kurdish leaders ratings improve | North only
Talabani M. Barzani N. Barzani N. Mustafa-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
66 65 6441
16 18 2131
% Favorable % Unfavorable
Now, I’d like to rate your feelings toward some people, things, and organizations, with “100” meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; “0” meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and “50” meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. (NORTH ONLY)
Page 58
Δ favorable
Oct ’11 +17 +4 n/a +15
May 2012
Favorability of Kurdish parties also improves | North only
KDP PUK Goran KIU KOMAL-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
59 5539
30 26
24 2233 37 31
% Favorable % Unfavorable
Page 59
Δ favorable
Oct ’11 +10 +8 +18 +8 +13
May 2012
KDP shows strong growth, PUK drops | North only
Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Apr-120
10
20
30
40
50
32
3035 36
42
35
21 31 28
219
16 14
5
12
76 3
55
715
9
14
12
KDP PUK Goran Movement KIU Und/DK/Ref
Page 60
Place a mark next to the political party you would vote for, if the elections were held today. (NORTH ONLY)
May 2012
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