mcdonalds corp

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GREG BRUNO, LISANDRO TSAI, DREW OSIKA, MEILING LIU Presented: November 11, 2010 MCDONALDS CORP.

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Mcdonalds Corp. GREG BRUNO, LISANDRO TSAI, DREW OSIKA, MEILING LIU Presented: November 11, 2010. History of Holding. Bought 200 shares of MCD on March 3 rd , 2009 @ $52.44 As of November 10 th , 2010, MCD trades @ $79.50 for an unrealized gain of 51.6% - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Mcdonalds  Corp

GREG BRUNO, LISANDRO TSAI, DREW OSIKA, MEILING LIUPresented: November 11, 2010

MCDONALDS CORP.

Page 2: Mcdonalds  Corp

HISTORY OF HOLDING

• Bought 200 shares of MCD on March 3rd, 2009 @ $52.44

• As of November 10th, 2010, MCD trades @ $79.50 for an unrealized gain of 51.6%

• Currently paying $2.44 annual dividend/share• 3% yield

• $15,900 total value represents 4.8% of portfolio’s holdings

Page 3: Mcdonalds  Corp

COMPANY OVERVIEW

• Market leader in the global fast food industry

• Offers core menu with some geographic variations

• 32,478 restaurants in 117 countries (as of Dec. 31, 2009)

• Serves 58 million customers daily and employs 385,000

Page 4: Mcdonalds  Corp

BUSINESS MODEL

• Franchise/Company-owned store mix• Franchise generates consistent rent and

royalties at high margins• Company-owned generates full revenues but for

lower margins with unpredictable costs

• Supplies food and materials to restaurants through approved 3rd party operators

Page 5: Mcdonalds  Corp

STRATEGY

• “Plan to win” (November 2004)• Renewed focus on people, products, place, price and

promotion• 5-year NI growth of 75% (2005-09) vs. 14% (2000-05).1

• Refranchise restaurants to stabilize cash flows and increase margins

• Ongoing initiatives2

• Service enhancement• Restaurant reimaging• Menu innovation• Grow aggressively in China

1. http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/McDonald%27s_%28MCD%29/Data/Net_Income_To_Common

2. McDonald’s Corporation 10-K Statement for FY2009, Page 12.

Page 6: Mcdonalds  Corp

REVENUE SHARE BY REGION

Page 7: Mcdonalds  Corp

MAIN COMPETITORS

• Yum Brands, Inc. (YUM)• Wendy’s Arby’s Group Inc. (WEN)• Burger King Corporation• Doctor's Associates Inc. • Starbucks Corporation

Page 8: Mcdonalds  Corp

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

• Fast Food Restaurant Industry• Slow growth in the United States: 0.5% from 2005-2010

and 2.5% from 2010-2015• Consumers are choosing to buy lower-priced fast food

items, cutting into revenue growth• Consumers are more health conscious• Domestic market saturation, oversees expansion• Low concentration• High competition

Page 9: Mcdonalds  Corp

INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

Market Share in the US by Revenue

Page 10: Mcdonalds  Corp

MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT

• Exceeded or met targets for:• Long-term, constant currency financial targets of average annual

Systemwide sales growth of 3% to 5%• Average annual operating income growth of 6% to 7%• Returned $16.6bn to shareholders under their $17 – $19bn target

for 2007 through 2009

• Management is placing much of their future growth in APMEA region

Source: McDonald’s 2009 10-K, http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000119312510042025/d10k.htm#toc84160_8

Page 11: Mcdonalds  Corp

ISSUES OF CONCERN

• Rising food prices

• Rising labor costs• Currency Wars

• Earnings are affected by changes in particularly Euro, British Pound, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar.

• Collectively these currencies represent approximately 70% of company’s operating income outside of US.

Source: McDonald’s 2009 10-K, http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000119312510042025/d10k.htm#toc84160_8

Page 12: Mcdonalds  Corp

PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL MEASURES

Source: McDonald’s 2009 10-K, http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000119312510042025/d10k.htm#toc84160_8

Page 13: Mcdonalds  Corp

PERFORMANCE AND FINANCIAL MEASURES

Source: McDonald’s 2009 10-K, http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000119312510042025/d10k.htm#toc84160_8

Page 14: Mcdonalds  Corp

DUPONT ANALYSIS

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

ROE 16.04% 17.18% 22.93% 15.67% 32.23% 32.43%

Page 15: Mcdonalds  Corp

PUBLIC COMPARABLESComparables                

11/7/2010     Enterprise

Value   Market Cap      Ticker Company Name EBITDA EBIT Sales (mil's $) P/E P/BV P/S

MCD McDonald's Corp. 10.8x 12.6x 3.9x 83,781 20.0x 6.4x 3.6x

SBUX Starbucks Corp. 11.6x 16.3x 2.1x 22,847 27.5x 6.5x 2.2x

YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. 10.8x 14.1x 2.4x 24,052 23.5x 15.4x 2.2x

DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. 9.2x 10.5x 1.5x 910 17.9x NM 0.6x

PZZA Papa John's International Inc. 6.0x 8.2x 0.6x 660 13.2x 3.4x 0.6x

JACK Jack in the Box Inc. 7.1x 12.6x 0.7x 1,294 18.6x 2.3x 0.6x

DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. 8.4x 12.1x 1.1x 6,670 19.0x 3.6x 0.9x

SONC Sonic Corp.   8.7x 13.0x 2.0x 581 18.5x 26.0x 1.0x

McDonald's Corp.   Min 13.2x 2.3x 0.6x

Normalized EPS 4.02 Mean 19.7x 9.5x 1.2x

BV per share 12.34 Median 18.6x 5.0x 0.9x

Revenue   23834 Max 27.5x 26.0x 2.2x

Shares Outstanding 1057 Min $ $ 53.04 $ 28.37 $ 13.01

Revenue per share 22.56 Mean $ $ 79.41 $ 117.72 $ 26.31

Median $ $ 74.94 $ 62.22 $ 21.07

max $ $ 110.72 $ 320.61 $ 50.39

max - min $ 57.68 $ 292.24 $ 37.38

Page 16: Mcdonalds  Corp

DISCOUNT RATE

Discount Rate

Cost of Equity 7.39%

Cost of Debt (Mid Investment Grade)

5.29%

WACC 6.01%

Historic ROE (2004-2009) 15.00%

Discount Rate 10.00%

• Discount Rate at lower end of acceptable range• Low yield environment • McDonalds transitioning to a higher margin business model• McDonalds management committed to returning value to shareholders.

Page 17: Mcdonalds  Corp

DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS

Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Terminal

FCF 3,308.72 3,961.46 4,558.34 4,927.38 5,764.26 5,705.12 98888.74

Discount Rate 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%

Present Value 3008 3274 3425 3365 3579 3220 55820.12

               

Sum of PV: $75,692           

# Shares 1058           

$ Per Share $71.53           

+10% $78.68

-10% $64.37

Page 18: Mcdonalds  Corp

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Page 19: Mcdonalds  Corp

WEIGHTED VALUATION

Method Weight Valuation

DCF Valuation 50% $71.53

P/E Multiple 25% $77.17

P/BV Multiple 25% $89.97

Weighted Valuation (per share): $77.55

-10% $69.79

Valuation $77.55

10% $85.30

Page 20: Mcdonalds  Corp

RECOMMENDATION

• Hold our current position of 200 shares