md vision quest: scenario building
DESCRIPTION
Slides for an online blended learning course for the Maryland Vision Quest group.TRANSCRIPT
Scenarios: Very Serious Fiction
1950’s
•Developed by RAND for U.S. Military
•World War III
1960’s
•Modified as business tool by Herman Kahn
•Doomsday Machine & Cold War
Today
•University of Houston Clear Lake
•Kiski area schools in Pittsburgh
Why Build Scenarios
How to Build Scenarios: The Process
Identify2
ProduceReduce
Match
Create
Select
How to Build Scenarios: Perspectives
Miracle Optimistic Status Quo Pessimistic Disaster
How to Build Scenarios: Methods
Other Methods: Fortunately / Unfortunately
Other Methods: Scenario Construction for Forecasting
Figure 2: The Process of Scenario Formulation, p. 40. Forge, Blackman, Bohlin.
Preparing to PracticeClaim your space and use the text tool to share one library trend that you brought with you
Breakout Group Recap
Limitations to Scenario Building