mdl probabilistic forecast guidance nfuse presentation bob glahn (mdl) kathryn gilbert (mdl/mos)
DESCRIPTION
MDL Probabilistic Forecast Guidance NFUSE Presentation Bob Glahn (MDL) Kathryn Gilbert (MDL/MOS) Judy E. Ghirardelli (MDL/LAMP) National Weather Service Meteorological Development Laboratory July 11, 2007. MOS Probability Post-Processing. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
MDL Probabilistic Forecast MDL Probabilistic Forecast GuidanceGuidance
NFUSE PresentationNFUSE Presentation
Bob Glahn (MDL)Bob Glahn (MDL)Kathryn Gilbert (MDL/MOS)Kathryn Gilbert (MDL/MOS)
Judy E. Ghirardelli (MDL/LAMP)Judy E. Ghirardelli (MDL/LAMP)
National Weather ServiceNational Weather ServiceMeteorological Development LaboratoryMeteorological Development Laboratory
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
MOS Probability Post-Processing• MOS provides objective forecast guidance for sensible
weather elements
• Products may be deterministic or probabilistic
• Probability forecasts are transformed to a “best” category by applying a threshold value to the probability
• Categorization is often done at the request of the users– decisions are made before dissemination
• Thresholds are determined to maximize some characteristic of performance, i.e. threat score, or in our case, usually unit bias– events are forecast with the same frequency they
are observed– provide a desired balance between the threat score,
the bias, the POD and the FAR
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
MOS Sample Text Message KPHL GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2007 0000 UTC KPHL GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2007 0000 UTC
DT /FEB 14 /FEB 15 /FEB 16 / DT /FEB 14 /FEB 15 /FEB 16 /
HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00
X/N 32 15 26 13 29 X/N 32 15 26 13 29
TMP 23 24 25 29 29 28 26 22 18 17 16 19 24 25 23 19 17 16 15 27 25 TMP 23 24 25 29 29 28 26 22 18 17 16 19 24 25 23 19 17 16 15 27 25
DPT 20 23 25 29 28 23 16 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 5 5 DPT 20 23 25 29 28 23 16 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 5 5
CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL SC SC SC BK BK BK SC SC SC BK CL CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL SC SC SC BK BK BK SC SC SC BK CL
WDR 06 06 05 02 34 31 30 30 29 29 28 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 27 28 27 WDR 06 06 05 02 34 31 30 30 29 29 28 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 27 28 27
WSP 15 16 19 17 19 24 25 24 21 18 15 19 20 20 14 13 13 13 13 20 15 WSP 15 16 19 17 19 24 25 24 21 18 15 19 20 20 14 13 13 13 13 20 15
P06 100 84 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P06 100 84 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P12 85 2 0 0 0 P12 85 2 0 0 0
Q06 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q06 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q12 4 0 0 0 0 Q12 4 0 0 0 0
T06 3/ 0 1/24 2/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 1 1/19 0/ 6 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0 T06 3/ 0 1/24 2/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 1 1/19 0/ 6 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0
T12 3/24 2/26 1/19 1/23 0/21 T12 3/24 2/26 1/19 1/23 0/21
POZ 69 61 50 36 19 20 20 7 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 POZ 69 61 50 36 19 20 20 7 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
POS 16 12 10 25 30 45 64 76 84 99 85 97 97 86 88 85 81100 93 91 94 POS 16 12 10 25 30 45 64 76 84 99 85 97 97 86 88 85 81100 93 91 94
TYP Z Z Z Z S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S TYP Z Z Z Z S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S
SNW 1 0 SNW 1 0
CIG 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 CIG 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
VIS 7 5 4 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 VIS 7 5 4 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
OBV N BR BR BR BR N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N NOBV N BR BR BR BR N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
MOS Sample Text MessageMOS Sample Text Message KPHL GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2007 0000 UTC KPHL GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2007 0000 UTC
DT /FEB 14 /FEB 15 /FEB 16 / DT /FEB 14 /FEB 15 /FEB 16 /
HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00
X/N 32 15 26 13 29 X/N 32 15 26 13 29
TMP 23 24 25 29 29 28 26 22 18 17 16 19 24 25 23 19 17 16 15 27 25 TMP 23 24 25 29 29 28 26 22 18 17 16 19 24 25 23 19 17 16 15 27 25
DPT 20 23 25 29 28 23 16 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 5 5 DPT 20 23 25 29 28 23 16 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 5 5
CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL SC SC SC BK BK BK SC SC SC BK CLCLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL SC SC SC BK BK BK SC SC SC BK CL
WDR 06 06 05 02 34 31 30 30 29 29 28 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 27 28 27 WDR 06 06 05 02 34 31 30 30 29 29 28 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 27 28 27
WSP 15 16 19 17 19 24 25 24 21 18 15 19 20 20 14 13 13 13 13 20 15 WSP 15 16 19 17 19 24 25 24 21 18 15 19 20 20 14 13 13 13 13 20 15
P06 100 84 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P06 100 84 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
P12 85 2 0 0 0 P12 85 2 0 0 0
Q06 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q06 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q12 4 0 0 0 0 Q12 4 0 0 0 0
T06 3/ 0 1/24 2/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 1 1/19 0/ 6 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0 T06 3/ 0 1/24 2/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 1 1/19 0/ 6 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0
T12 3/24 2/26 1/19 1/23 0/21 T12 3/24 2/26 1/19 1/23 0/21
POZ 69 61 50 36 19 20 20 7 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 POZ 69 61 50 36 19 20 20 7 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
POS 16 12 10 25 30 45 64 76 84 99 85 97 97 86 88 85 81100 93 91 94 POS 16 12 10 25 30 45 64 76 84 99 85 97 97 86 88 85 81100 93 91 94
TYP Z Z Z Z S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SNW 1 0 CIG 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 5 4 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N BR BR BR BR N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
40-km contoured 10% 20-km contoured 10%
Probability of 1 or more cloud-to-ground lightning Probability of 1 or more cloud-to-ground lightning strikes in a grid box over a 3-h periodstrikes in a grid box over a 3-h period
Identical techniques, different horizontal resolutionsIdentical techniques, different horizontal resolutions
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
40-km contoured 10% 20-km contoured 5%
Magnitude of the probabilities is proportional Magnitude of the probabilities is proportional to the grid spacing, similar behavior with to the grid spacing, similar behavior with length of time periodslength of time periods
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Gridded MOSGridded MOS
Prob. Of Prob. Of PrecipPrecip
NDGD NDGD
Products are Products are
available in available in
GRIB2GRIB2
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Available MOS Probability Guidance
Probability Event6-, 12-, 24-h Prob. Of Precipitation
Liquid equiv. ≥ 0.01” Yes/NoYes/No
3-h 20-km Thunderstorm1 or more CG lightning strikes in grid box
Yes/NoYes/No
3-, 6-, 12-, 24-h 40-km Thunderstorm1 or more CG lightning strikes in grid box
Yes/NoYes/No
6-, 12-, 24-h 40-km Severe Thunderstorm
(conditional on thunderstorms)(hail, damaging winds, tornado)
Yes/NoYes/No
6-, 12-, 24-h 40-km Severe Thunderstorm
(unconditional = tstm*csvr)(hail, damaging winds, tornado)
Yes/No
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Available MOS Probability Guidance
Probability Event6-h Quantitative Precipitation
Forecast0.01”, 0.1”, 0.25”, 0.5”, 1” +
12-, 24-h Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
0.01”, 0.1”, 0.25”, 0.5”, 1”,2” +
1-, 3-h Precipitation occurring on the hour
Yes/No
Precipitation type (Conditional on Precipitation)
Freezing, Frozen, Liquid
Precipitation Characteristics(Conditional on Precipitation)
Drizzle, Continuous, Showers
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Available MOS Probability Guidance
Probability Event
Ceiling (feet)Ceiling (feet)
<200, 200-400, 500-900, <200, 200-400, 500-900, 1000-1900, 2000-3000, 1000-1900, 2000-3000,
3100-6500, 6600-12000, 3100-6500, 6600-12000, >12000 or unlimited)>12000 or unlimited)
Visibility (mi)Visibility (mi) < ½, <1, <2, <3, < ½, <1, <2, <3, ≤5, ≤6, ≤5, ≤6, >6>6
Obstruction to VisionObstruction to Vision None, Haze/Smoke, Mist, None, Haze/Smoke, Mist, Fog, Blowing PhenomenaFog, Blowing Phenomena
24-h Snow Amount24-h Snow Amount >T, 2”+, 4”+, 6”+, 8”+>T, 2”+, 4”+, 6”+, 8”+
Total Sky Cover Total Sky Cover
(Octets)(Octets)
Clear 0/8, Few 1/8-2/8, Clear 0/8, Few 1/8-2/8,
Sct 3/8-4/8, Bkn 5/8-7/8,Sct 3/8-4/8, Bkn 5/8-7/8,
Ovc 8/8Ovc 8/8
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
12-H Probability of Precipitation Warm 12-H Probability of Precipitation Warm SeasonSeason
Brier ScoreBrier Score
Forecast Projection (hr)Forecast Projection (hr)
Bri
er
Sco
reB
rier
Sco
re
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
12-H Probability of Precipitation Cool 12-H Probability of Precipitation Cool SeasonSeason
24-h Reliability
All
Sta
tion
s
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Probability of Quantitative Precip ≥ .25”
Reliabilty of 12-h PQPF > 0.25", 48h ForecastsCool Seasons 05-06 and 06-07, 335 sites
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
se
rved
Re
lati
ve
Fre
qu
en
cy
65
182
400
638
800
1159
1437
2108
3467
8611
619293381
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Mean:
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
MOS ProductsMOS Products
Alphanumeric BulletinsAlphanumeric Bulletins•Precipitation, Thunderstorm, SevereTstm, Snow, Precipitation, Thunderstorm, SevereTstm, Snow,
Freezing, Rain/SnowFreezing, Rain/Snow
Station guidance in BUFR formatStation guidance in BUFR format•Contains all MOS probabilitiesContains all MOS probabilities
Gridded MOS guidance in GRIB2 format (NDGD) Gridded MOS guidance in GRIB2 format (NDGD) •3-, 6- and 12-h thunderstorm probabilities3-, 6- and 12-h thunderstorm probabilities
•6- and 12-h probability of precipitation6- and 12-h probability of precipitation
Web graphics of most MOS probability productsWeb graphics of most MOS probability products
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtmlhttp://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
LAMP BackgroundLAMP Background• LAMP:LAMP:
– is a system of objective analyses, simple models, regression is a system of objective analyses, simple models, regression equations, and related thresholds which together provide equations, and related thresholds which together provide guidance for sensible weather forecastsguidance for sensible weather forecasts
– LAMP guidance is both probabilistic and deterministic LAMP guidance is both probabilistic and deterministic
– bridges the gap between the observations and the MOS bridges the gap between the observations and the MOS forecastforecast
– acts as an update to MOS guidanceacts as an update to MOS guidance
– provides guidance for aviation elementsprovides guidance for aviation elements
– is useful to WFO forecasters in making the TAFs and to AWC is useful to WFO forecasters in making the TAFs and to AWC forecasters in making the convective productsforecasters in making the convective products
– provides guidance for CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto provides guidance for CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto RicoRico
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
LAMP ProbabilitiesLAMP Probabilities
Probability of:Probability of: EventEventLiquid Equivalent Precip. ≥
0.01 inch during past 6 hours/12 hours
Yes/No
Precipitation occurring on the hour
Yes/No
Precipitation type (Conditional on Precipitation)
FreezingFrozenLiquid
Precipitation Characteristics(Conditional on Precipitation)
DrizzleContinuousShowers
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Probability of:Probability of: EventEventThunderstorms during 2 hr
period in 20km boxYes/No
Total Sky Cover
0/8 (Clear)1/8 – 2/8 (Few)3/8 – 4/8 (Sct)5/8 – 7/8 (Bkn)8/8 (Ovc)
Obstruction to Vision
No obstruction to visionHaze/SmokeMistFogBlowing Phenomena
LAMP ProbabilitiesLAMP Probabilities
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Probability of:Probability of: EventEvent
Ceiling Height
< 200 feet200 – 400 feet500 – 900 feet1000 – 1900 feet2000 – 3000 feet3100 – 6500 feet6600 – 12,000 feet> 12,000 feet
Ceiling Height (Conditional on Precipitation)
Same as above
LAMP ProbabilitiesLAMP Probabilities
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Probability of:Probability of: EventEvent
Visibility
< ½ mile< 1 mile< 2 miles< 3 miles≤ 5 miles≤ 6 miles
Conditional Visibility (Conditional on Precipitation)
Same as above
LAMP ProbabilitiesLAMP Probabilities
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
LAMP Probabilistic LAMP Probabilistic ProductsProducts
• SBN/NOAAPort/NWS FTP server products: SBN/NOAAPort/NWS FTP server products: – Alphanumeric bulletin guidanceAlphanumeric bulletin guidance
• Probs of precipitation occurrence, POP6, 2hr thunderstorm, Probs of precipitation occurrence, POP6, 2hr thunderstorm, freezing precipitation, frozen precipitationfreezing precipitation, frozen precipitation
– Station guidance in BUFR formatStation guidance in BUFR format• Contains all probabilities made by LAMPContains all probabilities made by LAMP
– Gridded thunderstorm guidance in GRIB2 format Gridded thunderstorm guidance in GRIB2 format • 2hr thunderstorm probabilities2hr thunderstorm probabilities
• Graphical products on weather.gov:Graphical products on weather.gov:– Gridded thunderstorm images, including Gridded thunderstorm images, including
probabilitiesprobabilities– Station plots of POPOStation plots of POPO– Meteograms, including probabilities found in bulletinMeteograms, including probabilities found in bulletin
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
GFS LAMP StatusGFS LAMP Status• Operational Status:Operational Status:
– 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC - operational July 20060300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC - operational July 2006– 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC - operational May 20070000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC - operational May 2007– 4 more cycles planned to be operational September 4 more cycles planned to be operational September
20072007
• In Stage 5 (Deploy, Maintain, and Assess) In Stage 5 (Deploy, Maintain, and Assess) of OSIPof OSIP
• Data being sent out to:Data being sent out to:– SBN/NOAAPortSBN/NOAAPort
• AWIPS depictables in OB7.2AWIPS depictables in OB7.2– NWS FTP serverNWS FTP server– NDGDNDGD– NWS Web FarmNWS Web Farm
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
LAMP Meteogram LAMP Meteogram ProductsProducts
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
LAMP Thunderstorm: Probabilities and Best Category LAMP Thunderstorm: Probabilities and Best Category (Y/N) (Y/N)
Projection 1, Hrs 1-3Projection 1, Hrs 1-3
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
LAMP Thunderstorm: Probabilities and Best Category LAMP Thunderstorm: Probabilities and Best Category (Y/N) (Y/N)
All ProjectionsAll Projections
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
POP6 ReliabilityPOP6 Reliability
Cool SeasonCool Season
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Reliability of 0300 UTC 09-h PoP6 Cool Season: 2006 Oct - 2007 Mar, 613 sites
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
serv
ed R
elat
ive
Fre
qu
ency
1694
1598
1778
2032
2507
3196
4419
6695
13383
3720324899
1288
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Reliability of 0300 UTC 15-h PoP6 Cool Season: 2006 Oct - 2007 Mar, 613 sites
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
serv
ed R
elat
ive
Fre
qu
ency
1270
13481549
1787
2006
2454
3148
4279
7154
14665
4086121013
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Reliability of 0300 UTC 21-h PoP6 Cool Season: 2006 Oct - 2007 Mar, 613 sites
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
serv
ed R
elat
ive
Fre
qu
ency
889
11281467
1843
1936
2430
3230
4259
6904
14148
3279830190
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Ceiling < 1000 feet Ceiling < 1000 feet ReliabilityReliability
Warm and Cool SeasonsWarm and Cool Seasons
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Reliability of 0300 UTC 03-h Ceiling < 1000 feet 2006 Aug - 2007 May, 1522 sites
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
serv
ed R
elat
ive
Fre
qu
ency
827
2642
4348
5189
4171
3625
3684
5574
14848
56727
145522
1656690
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Reliability of 0300 UTC 06-h Ceiling < 1000 feet 2006 Aug - 2007 May, 1522 sites
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
serv
ed R
elat
ive
Fre
qu
ency
543
1504
2749
3876
5170
6247
8882
14551
32718
84430
108049142072
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Reliability of 0300 UTC 12-h Ceiling < 1000 feet 2006 Aug - 2007 May, 1522 sites
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
serv
ed R
elat
ive
Fre
qu
ency
111
4861264
2676
4627
8028
13531
22439
40353
84219
104261145324
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Visibility < 3 miles Visibility < 3 miles ReliabilityReliability
Warm and Cool SeasonsWarm and Cool Seasons
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Reliability of 0300 UTC 03-h Visibility < 3 miles 2006 Aug - 2007 May, 1522 sites
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
serv
ed R
elat
ive
Fre
qu
ency
127
3501268
2145
3175
3815
3233
7822
15090
48684
161115167357
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Reliability of 0300 UTC 06-h Visibility < 3 miles 2006 Aug - 2007 May, 1522 sites
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
serv
ed R
elat
ive
Fre
qu
ency 83
147373
1010
2290
4197
7716
13759
29062
86103
119527147979
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Reliability of 0300 UTC 12-h Visibility < 3 miles 2006 Aug - 2007 May, 1522 sites
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
serv
ed R
elat
ive
Fre
qu
ency
1843
141
560
1563
3724
7585
15591
33554
86219
125758153950
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
ThunderstormThunderstorm ReliabilityReliability
Warm SeasonWarm Season
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Reliability of 0300 UTC 03-h Thunderstorms Warm Season: 2006 Aug - Sep, 2007 Apr - May, 27373 grid points
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
serv
ed R
elat
ive
Fre
qu
ency
974
1117
1805
2839
4501
6956
11427
19702
40770
150318
1515938
14189210
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Reliability of 0300 UTC 06-h Thunderstorms Warm Season: 2006 Aug - Sep, 2007 Apr - May, 27373 grid points
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
serv
ed R
elat
ive
Fre
qu
ency
10
80
166
296
1551
6394
28542
204603
16269591306667
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Reliability of 0300 UTC 09-h Thunderstorms Warm Season: 2006 Aug - Sep, 2007 Apr - May, 27373 grid points
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Forecast
Ob
serv
ed R
elat
ive
Fre
qu
ency
7
512
13277
179071
18193271163074
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
ThunderstormThunderstorm Brier Brier Score Score
Improvement on Improvement on ClimatologyClimatology
Spring SeasonSpring Season
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
Thunderstorms: CONUS Spring (March 16 - June 30) 20050300 UTC, Independent Data
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
PROJECTION (H)
Brie
r Sco
re Im
prov
emen
t on
Clim
ate
(%)
GFS-LAMP
July 11, 2007July 11, 2007
MDL MOS and LAMP Products on the Web
MOS Products MOS Products
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shthttp://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtmlml
LAMP ProductsLAMP Productshttp://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp/