measuring migration a statistical challenge

Eurostat

Measuring migration:a statistical challenge

Giampaolo Lanzieri

Technical Seminar"CELAC-EU Migration: Overviews and Opportunities"Brussels, 22 June 2015

Eurostat

A world 'on the move'

• Migration has always been part of the human history (and human nature)

• Improved transport means, communication technologies and possibly lower barriers make it nowadays easier

• UN Population Division estimates the world share of international migrants at about* 3.2%, Europe being the main receiving region

• Since about two decades, (net) migration is the most important component of population dynamics for the EU

How official statistics measurethis phenomenon?

(*) 232 million international migrants on 7.2 billion population in 2013

Brussels,22 June 2015

G. Lanzieri – Measuring migration: a statistical challenge

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Eurostat

Who is a 'migrant'?

• Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration, Rev.1 (UN, 1998):• "A person who moves to a country other than that of his or

her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence."

• EU Regulation 862/2007:• "‘immigrant’ means a person undertaking an immigration",

where "‘immigration’ means the action by which a person establishes his or her usual residence in the territory of a Member State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months, having previously been usually resident in another Member State or a third country".



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Eurostat

Country of usual residence

• Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration, Rev.1 (UN, 1998):• "The country in which a person lives, that is to say, the country

in which he or she has a place to live where he or she normally spends the daily period of rest. Temporary travel abroad for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage does not change a person's country of usual residence."

• EU Regulation 862/2007:• "‘usual residence’ means the place at which a person normally

spends the daily period of rest, regardless of temporary absences for purposes of recreation, holiday, visits to friends and relatives, business, medical treatment or religious pilgrimage or, in default, the place of legal or registered residence".



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Eurostat

Stocks and flows

• 'Stock' refers to the size of a population group in a given moment in time• Foreign-born (resident) persons• Foreign (resident) citizens• Ever resided abroad• …

• 'Flow' refers to the volume of events (migrations) occurring in a defined period of time



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Getting the message right

Country of birth Citizenship



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Eurostat

Identifying migration

• Crossing border: current/past borders• Duration of stay: 3/4/6/12 months,...• Measure perspective: actual and/or intended stay• Modality of stay: continuous/most of the time• Concept of residence: usual, legal/de jure,

registered, present/de facto,…• …



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Eurostat

Some peculiar cases

• Cross-border workers• Seasonal workers• Living abroad regularly returning to family home• Multiple residences• Asylum seekers• Illegal/irregular migrants• Diplomatic/military personnel and their families• …



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Eurostat

The mirror may return biased images…



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using immigration data… …and emigration data

Major migration flows in 2012 between selected EU Member States.

Source: Eurostat

Eurostat

2003-2013: a 'golden decade' in migration (statistics) research

• Large research projects on migration (mostly with EU support):• COMPSTAT, THESIM, MIMOSA, PROMINSTAT,

CLANDESTINO, IMEM,…

• Several methods for consistent migration estimates proposed in international scientific literature

• Intensification of activities at international level:• UNECE guidelines on data exchange, Eurostat WG

technical discussions,…



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Eurostat

From counting to estimation

• Formal endorsement of estimation methods in migration statistics (excerpt from Art.9 EU law 862/2007 on migration statistics):

• Possibility of larger use of statistical models• Post-census revisions



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Particular migration trajectories

Return migration

Country B

Country A

Circular migration



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Country B

Country AOne time More times

Eurostat

Return migration

• Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration, Rev.1 (UN, 1998):• Returning migrants: Persons returning to their

country of citizenship after having been international migrants (whether short-term or long-term) in another country and who are intending to stay in their own country for at least a year.

• Some issues:• Multiple/changing citizenship• National citizens born abroad



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Eurostat

Reality can be more complex



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Country A

Country B

Country C

Country B

Country C

Country A

Country B

Country A

Country C

Country A

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country B

Country A

Eurostat

How to identify circular migration?

• Intuitive concept, but difficult to make it operational• Various dimensions:

• Repetition: how many migration segments needed?• Directionality: country of origin/destination?• Duration: time threshold?• Purpose: labour-related?• Status: only legal/managed migration?• Other policy/social dimensions (developmental

impact, etc.)• …



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Eurostat

Additional issues• Definition/limitation of circular migration as for:

• Simple vs. complex patterns• Starting point of the 'circularity'• Time width of reference

• Applicability of 'mirror criteria'• Number of circular emigrants to B measured in A should equal

the number of circular immigrants from A measured in B• 'Sustainability' of the data collection

• Possibly no additional burden, readily available, minimum costs, possibility of regular production, etc..

• Nesting in official migration statistics? Implications for:• Concept of residence (usual residence)• Time criterion (12 months)• Actual/intended stay

• Difficulty for information on migration history and destinations



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Eurostat

A definition of circular migration

• From the European Migration Network :• Circular migration is a repetition of legal migration

by the same person between two or more countries.

• Mainly targeting Third-Country Nationals



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Eurostat

Provisional operational definitions by UNECE Task Force on Circular Migration

• A circular immigrant is a person who has immigrated more than once to the same country (over the latest ten years).

• A circular emigrant is a person who has emigrated more than once from the same country (over the latest ten years).

• Similar for short-term circular migration, i.e. between 3-12 months



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Eurostat

Increasing statistical complexity

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Migration

Labour migration

Labour mobility

Underestimation

Disaggregation by single country/citizenshipand other basic characteristics

Socio-economic profile /integration

Under-representationin sample surveys

Data sources

Internationally agreeddefinitionsConceptual issues for

peculiar migration trajectories



etc….

Thank you for your attention!For any further information:[email protected]


G. Lanzieri – Measuringmigration: a statistical challenge

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measuring migration a statistical challenge

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