measuring program results for abstinence education grantees independent consultant, results...

Measuring Program Resultsfor

Abstinence Education Grantees

Independent Consultant, Results Management

Vijaya ChannahSorah, Ph.D.

RESULTS

• What do we mean by measuring results?

> Measuring Outputs and Outcomes

> Program Evaluation

> Logic Modeling (as a tool)

• The purpose is to improve program outcomes and to achieve our vision . . . to give our youth knowledge and skills to live a rich, grounded life . . .

Why are Results Important?

• Enable you to know what works well (in what populations, under which conditions)

• Enable you to take corrective actions

• Other states/projects can implement effective program elements and test them in their own area

TRAINING APPROACH

Walk systematically through:

• Performance Measurement (outputs, outcomes, efficiency, etc.)

• Program Evaluation• Logic Modeling• Tying Everything Together

PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT

• Definitions: outputs, outcomes, etc.

• Setting targets

• How different from research / program evaluation

Performance Measurement: Definitions

• Outcomes: ultimate purpose of the program

• Outputs: intermediate results of activities

• Activities: your processes

• Inputs: resources

• Efficiency: outcomes or outputs over costs (usually)

Performance Measurement: Definitions / Examples

Outcome example:• Decrease the rate of births to unmarried teenage girls ages 15

to 19. (2002 baseline was 35.4%)

Output example:• Number of teachers trained in abstinence education (by

200X).

• Activities: Developing curriculum, conducting training, etc.

• Inputs: Funds, x number of abstinence experts, ideas, etc.

• Efficiency: Number of teachers trained over training dollars (a PROCESS Efficiency Measure).

Challenges in Performance Measurement

• Defining “efficiency” for human services programs (e.g., abstinence education)

• Defining outcomes (e.g., family violence prevention)

• Timely, reliable data

Performance Measurement / Program Evaluation: definitions

Difference between performance measurement & program evaluation

Performance measurement shows:• Trends over time• Comparison between actual and desired results/outcomes

Program evaluation shows:• Outcomes relative to what they would have been in absence of the

program• Program’s causal contribution to the observed outcome

PROGRAM EVALUATION

Definition:

Program evaluations are systematic, scientifically-based studies conducted to assess the impact of a program

A program evaluation typically applies scientific techniques to determine how confident we can be that a particular OUTCOME was CAUSED BY the intervention(s)

Evaluations examine achievement of program objectives in the context of environmental and external factors (and takes them into account)

Program Evaluation

Basic Approaches: Randomized controlled trials

________________

O1 X O2

- - - - - - - - - - - -

O1 O2

________________

Random assignment to control and experimental groups

Program Evaluation

Basic Approaches: Quasi experimental design

________________

O1 X O2

- - - - - - - - - - - -

O1 O2

________________

No random assignment to control and experimental groups

Program Evaluation

Basic Approaches: Longitudinal quasi experimental design

_________________________________

O1 X O2 X O3 X O4

_________________________________

Observations and treatments (interventions) over time

Program Evaluation

Basic Approaches: Single group pre- post-design

_______________

O1 X O2

________________

No comparison/control group. Not recommended. Conclusions about causality will be uncertain.

Program Evaluation

Key things to look for (and discuss with evaluator):

• Type and rigor of study design

• Hypotheses addressed?

Program Evaluation

Key things to look for continued…

• Timing between pre- and post-tests (if applicable)

• Data collected & methods of collection• Frequency of data collection• Demographics, external factors collected?• Internal/external validity of study

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Program Evaluation

Using milestones/interim results to take corrective actions

• Ensure evaluation, data gathering, and outcomes measurement allow for interim reporting

• Find out about the data lag (and implications)

• Determine how interim results can be interpreted (will you know what to change about the program elements/activities?)

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Program Evaluation

Reminders:

• Consider evaluating relatively small chunks of program aspects (you may not be able to conduct an evaluation of the entire project)

• Build use of interim results into your workplan

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Program Evaluation

Reminders (continued):

• Tap into partnerships: are existing data available (or is information available) that might be useful?

• Check in “early and often” with 3rd party evaluator ~ stay in close contact

• Design the formats for evaluation reports (interim and final) at the start

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Program Evaluation

Awareness of analysis techniques:

• Multiple regression

• Non-response analysis

• Correlation (is NOT causality!)

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Program Evaluation

Feedback loop

• Learn from the performance and program evaluation process and results

• Incorporate program evaluation into the logic model (discussed next)

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LOGIC MODELS

A diagram, chart, or picture of all the major elements of your entire project

The idea is to make it user-friendly to you and your group, and applicable to your purpose

You will get basic building blocks here, and can then tailor the logic model to your needs and preferred ways of thinking

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Overview of Logic Models

• A logic model tracks how we get from our challenges to our solutions and desired long term outcomes …

CHALLENGE

INPUTS

ACTIVITIES

OUTPUTS

OUTCOMESEXT. FACTORS

CONSTRAINTS

LONG TERM

OUTCOMES (GOALS)ASSUMPTIONS

DEMOGRAPHICS

Logic Model Defined

What is a Logic Model?

• A graphic representation of a program.

• It shows what the program is designed to accomplish, including the services it delivers, expected results of those services, and the linkages between services and program goals.

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Logic Models

…can go both ways

X ---------------------------------------------Y

(e.g., how can we make a raft float?)

X <- --------------------------------------------Y (e.g., why did the raft sink?)

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Logic Model Uses

Use for program: • Design• Budgeting• Implementation• Evaluation• Communication• Marketing• Workplanning So logic models can be used to help plan and

manage the whole programPage 25

Logic Model Construction Process

Brainstorming the Draft Model:

• Establish the scope and context

• Determine challenge(s), outcomes, inputs, activities, outputs, and measurement components

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Logic Model Construction Process Continued…

• Create model draft

• Express relationships among/between key components

• Determine evaluation needs/points using dotted line arrows (solid arrows show known relationships)

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Logic Model Construction Process

Brainstorm the Model Development:

• Use flipcharts and colored post-its• Create model draft step by step • No idea is “wrong”• Think creatively!

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Logic Model Development

1. Identify CHALLENGE/Social ill: What do we want to improve in the population?

• Out of wedlock births• Relationships before marriage• Diseases (STDs)

Challenges are often expressed as statements of fact, based on empirical data/statistics.

There may be multiple challenges addressed by a single program.

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2. Identify LONG-TERM OUTCOMES: The ultimate end goals of your program, how your service population will look after your interventions have taken place

• Decrease out of wedlock births • Increase proportion of abstinent youths• Decrease preventable disease (STDs)

Long-term outcomes/goals (as well as all other outcomes) are usually expressed as changes: you will use words such as “improved,” “increased,” “decreased,” etc.

Ultimate long-term outcomes/goals are sometimes “pie in the sky” or utopian.

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The remainder of the logic model elaborates The remainder of the logic model elaborates how we get from the CHALLENGE to the how we get from the CHALLENGE to the LONG TERM OUTCOMES. LONG TERM OUTCOMES.

CHALLENGE

INPUTS

ACTIVITIES

OUTPUTS

OUTCOMESEXT. FACTORS

CONSTRAINTS

LONG TERM

OUTCOMES (GOALS)ASSUMPTIONS

DEMOGRAPHICS


3. Identify Inputs/Resources (personnel, funds, laws/regulations, creative ideas, etc.)

4. Identify Activities:• Train the trainer• Delivering abstinence education in [churches,

community centers, schools]

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5. Identify Outputs, such as number of trainers trained, number of training courses developed and administered.

6. Identify/develop Key Outcomes and Measures:• Decrease the rate of births to unmarried teenage girls

ages 15-19 (35.4% in 2002) Target: 35% in 2003

• Decrease the proportion of youth ages 15-19 who have engaged in sexual intercourse (46.7% in 2003) Target: 45.5% for 2004

… and set TargetsPage 32


7. Determine where program evaluation/research needs to take place (and depict arrows accordingly):

- - - - - - > = plausible causal relationship (or desired effects/results)

---------- = known causal relationship (based on scientific research/program evaluation)

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Reminders:• Logic modeling is a continuous (not static) process• Incorporate activities/processes into more detailed

project workplans • Do not restrict your thinking - jot down ideas for the

workplan or other areas, items, etc. as you think of them while brainstorming

• Use the abstinence-until-marriage (Abstinence Education) logic model template as a starting point, and to assist thinking...

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Complementary Tools:• Workplans • Strategic plans• Flowcharts• Process diagrams• Related logic models• Performance budgets containing “global”

Agency performance measure information

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LINKING – How does all this relate?

• Performance measurement & reporting (represented in the boxes of the logic model): focus is on outcomes/ultimate results

• Program evaluation (represented in the arrows of the logic model): focus is on impacts

• Logic Modeling (gives a clear picture of what outcome measures needed, program evaluation needed, etc.) Page 36

In Conclusion

• Need to focus on producing results

• We have lots of information! – how do we assemble it to help us manage?

• Use logic modeling to track and improve performance (at federal, state, and grantee levels)

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Questions / Discussion

• Questions on any aspect of measuring program results?

• Is it clear how all aspects relate to one another and how logic modeling can be used as a powerful tool?

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Go Forth, Produce Results, and Measure !. . . for our youth

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Questions & Answers

• You may submit questions pertaining to today’s web cast until 5:00pm EDT, Wednesday June 14, 2006, to the following address:

[email protected] • Answers will be posted at www.pal-

tech.com/web/cbaewebcast/ as soon as they are available.

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