Measuring Progress

Dr Paul Jelfs, Branch HeadHealth Information and Social Analysis Branch

Australian Bureau of Statistics

Is life in Australia getting better?• Who is it getting better for?

– Everyone?– Some groups?

• Is it getting better for some at the expense of others?

What is progress?“the level of social progress or development in any country is a

matter of considerable conjecture and a high degree of subjective appreciation” Donald J. Johnston, 2006

• Direct social influences on the changing wellbeing of a population

• The structure and growth of the economy• The environment – as a direct influence on the wellbeing of

people and the economy, as well as independent value

Perspectives on measuring progress“… the gross national product measures everything, in

short, except that which makes life worthwhile.” Robert Kennedy, 1968

“The better an electorate is able to hold its policy makers accountable through evidence of their performance, the greater the incentive for policy makers to make better policy. And smarter indicators of progress could help society to achieve more relevant goals with fewer resources.” OECD

Measuring Progress“Not everything that is important can be measured, and not everything that

can be measured is important.” Albert Einstein

There are many different approached to measuring progress, including:

• Life satisfaction or happiness• A single composite indicator e.g. Human Development Index and

Genuine Progress Indicator• A set of integrated accounts that presents social economic and

environmental data in a unified system• Suite of indicators to inform judgements

“Household wealth plummets by

25%”

“Making plans for a healthier

nation”

“Illawarra unemployment rate hits nearly 10%”

“Australia's per capita

carbon footprint puts it at

No. 1”

“Demand for home loans

grows for 7th straight month”

MAP - A Brief History• first released 2002

- Awarded The Bulletin’s Smart 100, 2003

• subsequent reports 2004 and 2006• headline indicators updated annually on the

ABS website (from 2005)• most recent update April 2009

The Economy

National incomeEconomic hardshipNational wealthHousingProductivityCompetitiveness and opennessInflation

The Environment

The natural landscapeThe air and atmosphereOceans and estuaries

Society

HealthEducation and trainingWorkCulture and leisureFamily, community and social cohesionCrimeCommunicationTransportDemocracy, governance and citizenship

Recent results – Unemployment rateAnnual average unemployment rate - Australia

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Year

%

Unemployment rate by ageAnnual average unemployment rate - Australia

0

5

10

15

20

25

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

%

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 44

45 - 64

65 & over

People working part-time or long hoursPeople working part-time or long hours (proportion of all employed)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Year

%

FT — 50 hours or more perweekPT — prefer more hours

PT — do not prefer morehours

Recent results – Economic HardshipAverage real equivalised disposable household income

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Inde

x Low income groupMiddle income group

Recent results – National wealthReal national net worth per person

$240$245$250$255$260$265$270$275$280$285

Thou

sand

s

Year (as at 30 June)

Recent results – Air QualityDays on which fine particle health standards were exceeded

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Aver

age

no. o

f NEP

M P

M10

one

-day

exc

eede

nces

-4 -2 0 2 4 6

GDP per personMale - Life expectancy

Female - Life expectancyVocational or higher qualification

Unemployment rateNational disposable income per capita

Disposable income of low income hhldsNational net worth per capita

Multifactor productivityThreatened birds and mammals

Annual area of land clearedAir quality exceeded health standards

Greenhouse gas emissionsGreenhouse gas emissions per person

Victims of personal crimeVictims of hhld crime

10-year change in headline indicators and GDP

Comparative national and local initiatives

• Community Indicators Victoria• Tasmania Together• NSW state plan• The Basin Plan (Murray-Darling Basin Authority)• COAG process• Spotlight on the Pilbara

International comparisons• OECD Measuring the progress of societies

– OECD 3rd World Forum October 2009• Canadian Index of Wellbeing• Community Accounts: Government of

Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

Conceptual development of MAPAreas where development is required are:

• Housing – affordability, housing as an economic resource, occupancy rates

• Environment – appropriate measures, data availability• Democracy, governance and citizenship – measuring

attitudinal perspectives• Crime and Security – broadening the focus to include

security measures at a national level, data availability

Wouldn’t it be good if…• We could measure subjective indicators of

wellbeing

• Apply the MAP indicators to smaller populations or interest groups

• MAP could be used as an evidence base for change at a local level

Conceptual development• An Expert Reference Group is being assembled to

discuss the conceptual development of MAP

• The Expert Reference Group will be made up of a number of prominent experts in related fields

Turning MAP into an electronic productChallenges:• Presenting a complex report in a manageable way• Keeping the relevant background information

accessible• Meeting the needs of a broad range of clients • Engaging a broad audience with varying levels of

statistical knowledge

Turning MAP into an electronic productAdvantages• Improved navigation• Improved graphing• Key updates annually

Existing MAP websitePrototype of redevelopment

Questions?• Visit our display

• Come to the ‘Measuring Progress’ workshop

• Visit our websitewww.abs.gov.au/about/progress

Contact detailsPaul Jelfs, Branch Headpaul.jelfs@abs.gov.auPhone: 02 6252 6690

Tracey Chester, MAP Project leadertracey.chester@abs.gov.auPhone: 02 6252 5609