Measuring the impact of out-of-town retail development on town centre retail

property in England and Wales

Astbury, G., & Thurstain-Goodwin, M.

Geofutures Ltd, Circus Mews House, Circus Mews, Bath, BA1 2PW, UK.

01225 475866

ga@geofutures.com

June 2014

Abstract: This study is a quantitative investigation into the retail markets of England and Wales between 2005 and

2010. We examine the performance of retail over space and time with particular reference to town centre activity and

the impact of large off-centre retail, over a period of economic recession. We also estimate the relative income

generated for Local Authorities by town-centre or off-centre location, to propound market significance by geography.

Despite a widespread discussion of the impact of de-centralised planning over more than 30 years there have been no

detailed studies quantifying this impact; the results aim to address a gap in current empirical evidence at the national

extent. We use Valuation Office Agency (VOA) business rates as a proxy performance measure and geo-statistically

defined town centre boundaries to create a nationally and statistically consistent methodology. The variation of business

'rateable values' is in part a facet of economic performance, and spatial analysis using Geographic Information Systems

(GIS) allowed us to illustrate those areas over and under-performing the national economic market over the same

period. New off-centre large retail developments were identified over the same time frame, to identify any correlations

between new developments and the resilience of proximate town centres. The study highlighted multi-scale forces and

patterns of impact and found a relationship between the proximity of new off-cenre large retail developments and retail

floor space value change over time in town centres.

Keywords: Town centre, retail, superstore, retail park, rateable values, GIS.

1. Introduction: Boosting localised planning, high-street performance and economic growth are key contemporary

priorities for government and retail activity forms a key facet of this performance. This study attempts to quantify the

impact of large out-of-town retail developments on retail activity in town centres through quantitative investigation, and

contextualise the economic scale and importance of these centres, between the recent recession period of 2005-2010.

The global economic crisis has markedly disturbed the health of our town centre and retail economies; this major

macro-economic impact has disparately impacted retailers of different scales and offers.

The current post-recession economy has prompted a re-focus on 'high street decline' to examine the drivers for failure

and success, as the UK moves into an era of re-localised planning and 'place-shaping'. A recent policy change (the

'business rates retention scheme') allows Local Authorities to keep the rates collected within their borders, giving them a

greater fiscal-incentive to what is built within their borders.

Quantifiable evidence bases are paramount for any effective policy formulation and decision-making. Whilst town

centre economies have been the focus of England and Wales national planning policy and spatial planning practice for

up to 2 decades, many key government reviews have highlighted the lack of empirical evidence to quantify relative

town centre performance or the impact of out-of-town retail at the national scale. Dimensions of this evidence include

good geographic accuracy or scale of aggregation to examine spatial patterns and trends, at a national study extent and

with time-series analysis to explore changes over time. The Department of Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) has

noted ‘the data available to quantify economic performance/health of the high street are pertinent to town centre level

(or above) but rarely below – even in local studies. In the case of the latter, it is rare to find historical performance

comparisons’ 1.

This study uses nationally complete address-level data from the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) of England and Wales

capturing the changing non-domestic or business rateable values for each business by type. We utilise this data as a

proxy measure for economic performance. As business rates change partly in response to local economic market

conditions they can reflect the relative size and scale of retail economies and in particular the performance of areas over

time, using a retail floor space value percentage change measure offset by inflation to quantify impact. We also use geo-

statistically defined town centre boundaries for the spatial aggregation of business data to provide a nationally

consistent and quantitatively accurate town centre definition. Spatial analysis and GIS technologies help us to measure

relative impact through spatial aggregation and proximity measurements and regional and local trends are visualised

and discussed.

2. The 'future of the high street' debate:

2.1 An historic issue Our town centres have been under examination for several decades, marked by several strategic milestone government

reviews to assess the 'future of the high street', amongst a series of ongoing interim reports from government, industry

and academia (Bennison & Davies, 1980; National Economic Development Office Distributive Trades Economic

Committee 1988; Department of the Environment, 1992; Department of the Environment Urban and Economic

Development Group, 1994; Department of the Environment Transport and the Regions, 1998; Urban Task Force, 1998;

Portas, 2011; Barclay, 2012). During this time we have recognised the importance of our town centres for economic and

civic life, and attempted to balance market economic forces, development planning and the protection and investment in

these central places. A key facet of town centre vitality and function lies in retail, and one of the major trends over the

1 Department for Business Innovation and Skills (2011). Understanding High Street Performance, a report prepared by

GENECON LLP and Partners, iv.

last 30 years has been the decentralisation of retail development to out-of-town locations. The first off-centre grocery

supermarket development in West Bridgeford, Nottingham in 1964 marked the start of a new era of decentralised

development and by 1987 there were 39 national proposals at over 50,000 sq ft (National Economic Development

Office, 1988). Despite more strategic policy attempts to curb decentralisation there has been a consistent increase in

large off-centre retail development with new retail and leisure park schemes rising 34% between 2001 and 2012 (Trevor

Wood Associates, 2012) and supermarkets growing in the UK in number by 35% between 2001 and 2011 (Department

of Business Innovation and Skills, 2011). An awareness of the potential impact on town centre retail economies has

throughout this time been tacitly recognised, yet an ongoing reference to the lack of empirical evidence has been cited.

In 1992 the Department for the Environment carried out an extensive literature review to assess the impact of

development at that time. Of their vast synthesis of research they reflected on the approaches taken to assess impact

from elaborate spatial modelling of the 1960s to the detailed individual impact studies of the 1970s to the recognition of

a lack of any detailed evidence in large-food impact throughout the 1980s. Since the 1994 government review 'Vital and

Viable Town Centres' (Department of the Environment Urban and Economic Development Group, 1994), the focus on

town centres has shifted paradigm 'towards a strong urban renaissance' and retail impact still remains relatively un-

quantified. Of the small amount of quantitative studies that exist, the key assessment of the early 1990s by the National

Retail Planning Forum used employment levels as a proxy impact measure in the catchment areas of 93 new

superstores, concluding an overall negative effect and net loss of employment within 15km (National Retail Planning

Forum, 1998). A 1998 government investigation into large food store impact noted that 20% of Local Authorities had

not carried out a large retail impact assessment (Department of the Environment Transport and the Regions, 1998), and

the lack of empirical evidence meant a lack of conclusive evidence. A response and recent update to this study from the

University of Southampton based on survey data of 8 centres, noted the positive local trader attitudes to new edge-of-

centre developments and the perceived effect on local residents, revealing a highly polarised debate based on poorly

digested 'factoids' of negative impact (Wrigley et al, 2010).

2.2 How policy has guided the way The first significant introduction to policy protecting town centre locations from out-of-town development appeared in

the English 1996 planning policy guidance 6, 'town centre first' policy (Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, 1996),

together with a similar Welsh PPG6 framework (Welsh Government, 1996). This policy formed an explicit recognition

of an impact from off-centre competition at the large scale, and favoured centralised locations for development through

the 'sequential test', partly as a response to curb and control new developments. It was seen by some as a development

control tool preventing off-centre development rather than positively planning for town centres (Cheshire et al, 2011),

throughout which time out-of-town development continued to grow. A lag time in development meant it took more than

10 years up to 2006 to re-balance retail floor space in town centres to mid-1980s levels (British Council of Shopping

Centres, 2006). The policy gave rise to unexpected consequences, particularly the re-formatting of major grocery

multiples to local high-street convenience stores, which conversely may have benefited central places (Bennison et al,

2010). The 2011 UK Government Portas Review into the future of the high-street is the most recent examination into

apparent town centre decline focusing on the role of the retail sector, and renewing the debate (Portas, 2011).

2.3 The wider context The time frame of this study spans the years 2005 to 2010, during which time the national economy has experienced the

shock of economic crisis, fragility in customer confidence, and deteriorating household incomes and the effects of a

stagnating post-recession economy. Retail growth has mirrored national economics with retail growth at 1.2% in 2012

(Verdict Research, 2012) and the retail sales index of sales in volume and value terms, levelled out since 2008.

Consumer purchasing power has also decreased, with relative disposable income falling to 2013 (Office for National

Statistics) and a more competitive retail market emerging. The impact has been felt most strongly by, and revealed those

centres with marginal economic performance showing patterns of success, decline and resilience at a variety of scales

and locations (Wrigley & Dolega, 2011).

Town centre activity is recognised as a multi-dimensional process including other economic, social and cultural

adaptive processes. Whilst this study has a specific retail focus, generalising national-level conclusions, it is set within a

wider set of forces comprising a complete town centre ecosystem with multi-scale effects. We may consider the direct

comparison of the in and out-of-town retail environments as a difficult position, if we view the two offers as

significantly polarised experiences. Whilst both locations provide the opportunity for shopping, the locations differ in

urban vitality, central spaces of social gathering and exchange, diversity of leisure and other services, and in transport

and accessibility to and within these locations. They have differing inherent strengths to draw and detract demographic

groups to a certain location, even with retail as the primary purpose.

2.4 The importance for Local Authorities

Local Authorities have the potential to generate revenue through retail business rates but do not, at present, reap the

rewards through the nationally distributed 'formula grant' system. The new 'business rate retention scheme' aims to

redress this lack of local fiscal incentive by allowing the retention of income generated within administrative

boundaries, creating a vested interest for local planning authorities (Department of Communities and Local

Government, 2012). Rateable values or the level of non-domestic rates change to reflect local market conditions, with

higher value locations demanding higher taxation. While commercial property values have declined across the UK

during the recession due to national-scale forces, decisions made by planning authorities can have powerful localised

impact. It is important for authorities to balance the gains of out-of-town development with town centre impact on non-

domestic rates to maximise returns.

3. Methodology:

3.1 Datasets

Two key datasets have been used for the analysis. Firstly the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) summary valuations for

2005 and 2010. These were taken as a snapshot of a dynamic database at May 2012. The datasets contain all

hereditaments across England and Wales of non-domestic properties for which business rates are collected. A

hereditament broadly comprises the area of a building in which a business operates. Information also includes the

rateable value or the 'annual rent the property could be let out for on the open market on a particular date, on full

repairing and insuring terms'2. Retail types are also recorded by broad VOA classifications, and for most retail types a

floor space area is available, allowing us to calculate a normalised pound per metre square measurement for floor space

value.

3.2 Measuring performance Rateable values change over space and time. They are dependent upon property level factors but also the performance

of surrounding areas. In the context of retail for example, if a high-street suffers large vacancy rates, rateable values can

be expected to fall and vice-versa and in this way the data provides a level of dynamism through appeals and re-

valuations reflecting local market economic conditions. Business performance datasets at the national extent,

representing a good geographic accuracy which are reliable, accurate and complete with turnover or other performance

figures are not available at the current time. We are therefore using rateable values as a measure of income for Local

Authorities, and as a proxy for business performance.

3.3 Town centre area definition We have used town centre boundaries originally developed for the Department for Communities and Local Government

(DCLG) by Geofutures Ltd and the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA) at University College London (UCL)

between 1999 and 2004, (DCLG, 2006). These polygonal areas were defined using a nationally consistent modelling

approach accounting for the type, intensity, and diversity of economic activities and intensity of property development.

Density surfaces were derived from these statistics and local knowledge provided the 'best-fit' threshold to match

perceptions of town centre boundaries (Unwin & Thurstain-Goodwin, 2000). Their level of geographic accuracy has

been described as 'loose-fit', reflecting the unit-postcode level input data, (Batty, M. et al 2002). We have re-run a

comparative model for 2012 conditions for use in this study. Out-of-town retail centres such as large shopping centres

have been removed from both datasets to best reflect our central places. It should be noted that the resultant town

centres do not necessarily accord to town centres as designated or recognised in planning policy, and smaller centres

below 2 hectares in area are not included; as part of the original modelling approach a series of ‘retail cores’ were also

generated and this modelling defined 2 hectares as the cut-off point for centres of retail activity rather than the diverse

mix of activities found in town centres. These town centre boundaries provide an alternative functional economic

market area and geographic unit for statistical aggregation, in contrast to administrative and demographically-

engineered areas more often used in this type of retail statistic representation. They also provide a consistent method of

comparing town centres areas nationally.

3.4 Segmentation and aggregation of data

Summary valuation data has been queried and aggregated into broad retail types using 'special category' (SCAT) codes

created by the VOA which are also matched to UK 'Planning Use Classes ' by the VOA (fig. 1). Planning Use Classes

are used in the UK Town and Country Planning Order (1987) to categorise land and buildings, used by planners and

local authorities. The records were geo-coded using database matching to the Office for National Statistics Postcode

Directory (ONSPD), which includes all historic unit postcode centroids in the UK with their geographic coordinates.

Unit postcodes are the most precise codes and smallest areas covering on average 15 adjoining addresses. The points

were spatially aggregated into town centre boundaries using desktop GIS from ESRI.

2 Valuation Office Agency (2013). Business rates, an introduction. London: VOA, 2.

Fig. 1 Classification of VOA retail data by ‘special category' code

Type VOA special category VOA special category UK planning use class

Large retail Departmental and walk round stores (large) 086 A1 shops

Hypermarkets/superstores (over 2500m2) 139 A1 shops

Large food stores (750 – 2500m2) 152 A1 shops

Large shops (750 – 1850m2) 154 A1 shops

Large shops (over 1850m2) 155 A1 shops

Retail warehouses and premises 235 A1 shops

Other A1

shops

Auction rooms 019 A1 shops

Factory shops 097 A1 shops

Farm shops 098 A1 shops

Food stores 106 A1 shops

Garden centres 114 A1 shops

Motorway service area let outs 193 A1 shops

Pharmacies 210 A1 shops

Sales kiosks 243 A1 shops

Shops 249 A1 shops

Showrooms 251 A1 shops

Station let outs 266 A1 shops

Stores 268 A1 shops

Hairdressing/beauty salons 417 A1 shops

Post offices 429 A1 shops

Salons/clinics within/part of specialist 507 A1 shops

Shops within/part of specialist property 508 A1 shops

Stores within/part of specialist property 510 A1 shops

Finance Betting offices 024 A2 financial and professional

Banks/insurance/building society offices & 021 A2 financial and professional

Eating and

drinking

Drive-in restaurants 091 A3 restaurants and cafes

Drive-thru restaurants 092 A3 restaurants and cafes

Food courts 104 A3 restaurants and cafes

Restaurants 234 A3 restaurants and cafes

Cafes 409 A3 restaurants and cafes

Cafes/restaurants within/part of specialist 500 A3 restaurants and cafes

Public houses/pub restaurants (national 226 A4 drinking establishments

Public houses/pub restaurants (inc 227 A4 drinking establishments

Takeaway food outlet (predominantly off 442 A4 drinking establishments

Cars and

markets

Car auction buildings/sites 038 Sui generis

(unique/miscellaneous)

Car showrooms 042 Sui generis

Car supermarkets 044 Sui generis

Car/caravan sales/display/hiring sites 046 Sui generis

Markets (other than livestock) 165 Sui generis

3.5 Offsetting inflation We would expect economic rates to rise naturally with inflation over time, therefore any change over time needs to be

analysed in the context of under or out-performing the overall economy. To account for this expected uplift we have

offset the change in rateable values using the Retail Price Index (RPI) for UK annual inflation rates. The offset rates are

a percentage point difference between the rateable value percentage change and the RPI rates shown in table 2 below.

There are several options for inflation measurements; the RPI is used by government to help define rateable values in

part, by way of a 'multiplier' for bill calculations, hence a relevant choice of measure.

Fig. 2 Calculated inflation rates, using the annual UK Retail Price Index (RPI)

Time period RPI rate RPI rate

% change

2005 192.0 -

2010 223.6 -

2005 - 2010 - 16.5%

3.6 Measuring out-of-town retail impact New large retail developments were identified between the years 2005 and 2010 using the summary valuation datasets,

where new hereditaments existed between the datasets, outside of town centre boundaries. We have sense-checked and

analysed the results for any brand new developments in this time frame, using web searches and commercial and

industrial floorspace data from the VOA at the Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) level (with an average resident

population size of 7,500). The retail types identified include;

- Hypermarkets/superstores (on average 6,000m2 floor space)

- Large food stores (on average 1370m2 floor space)

- New retail park developments greater than 5 units

We aggregated the performance of those town centres that existed in both 2004 and 2012 whose centres were within

5km and 2km of a new development opened between 2005 and 2010. This again was measured using the average £ per

m2 retail floor space value percentage change, then offset by the Retail Price Index (RPI) inflation during this time. We

assume a variation in the diversity and mix of offer in each retail park. There exists no defined benchmark measurement

in literature or policy for the distance at which people are prepared to travel to a retail park; this would vary widely

considering the accessibility of each location. 5km and 2km were chosen as sensible travel times for comparison.

Central London was also omitted from the analysis for comparison; the city exhibits a differing complex urban structure

to other national areas with a smaller proximity between town centres.

3.7 Scale, precision and aggregation

This study acknowledges and attempts to address the polarised nature of current empirical evidence bases, from the

ecological fallacy of national and regional generalisations, to the atomistic fallacy of selective location-specific case

studies. The unit-postcode spatial precision of the business locations shows detailed patterns and spatial variation,

suitable for aggregation into the polygonal town centre areas which were also modelled based on unit postcode data.

Consistent modelling across the national extent for the input datasets concurrently allows national global statistics and

assessments to be derived.

3.8 Error margins Whilst the VOA rating lists and summary valuations provide us with a rich dataset for analysis, its primary purpose is

not one of data analysis and as a result there are some limitations to its use. Of note these include;

• The loose consistency of retail type categorisation made by different VOA valuation offices responsible for

regional assessments. This error should be small after we have aggregated up into more general groupings.

• Similarly, rateable values themselves are set in respect to an overall market 'tone'. Our results indicate that this

overall market tone has likely been under and over-valued by VOA regions comparatively.

• 2005 and 2010 rateable values, whilst assessed on these dates, are based on 2003 and 2008

market conditions respectively.

• Some types of retail do not have floor space information available in the summary valuation dataset. This

analysis omits food courts, non-livestock markets and public houses; these are not included in any floor space estimates

we have calculated.

• Approximately 0.3% of records cannot be geocoded to the unit postcode level across all of the datasets and

have been omitted from spatial analysis.

• Town centre boundaries themselves have changed over time, and we have used 2004 and 2012 boundaries for

2005 and 2010 VOA data respectively as they were not modelled for the years 2005-2011 inclusive.

• There exists a lag period in updating VOA records with new postcode information with change that may occur

over time. These changes are small in number, and historic postcodes will generally appear in the same general

neighbourhood area.

• There exists a lag period in updating VOA records with information from revaluations by appeal of a property

for a reassessment.

• There exists a lag-effect of new out-of-town developments across the entire 5 year period; all ‘new’

developments have been aggregated in this analysis, with the effect of those opened closer to 2010 perhaps not yet

affecting and being reflected by town centre performance.

4. Findings:

4.1 Global trends

The 'large retail’ type (as defined in fig. 1) makes up about 32-36% of hereditaments (individual businesses) nationally,

and other smaller A1 shops about 56 & 52% in 2005 and 2010 respectively. Large developments clearly have a

considerable share of the retail economy, yet these figures suggest the similarly important sizeable economies provided

by town centres. The business rates value generated for Local Authorities follows the same pattern, with 52.1% of

revenue coming from smaller A1 shops as opposed to 35.5% of 'large retail' outlets in 2010. Financial, food and drink

and other businesses make up less than 13% of revenue in 2010, with a much smaller representation of physical retail

'outlets'. .

The economic value of retail floor space in 2005 and 2010 is greater in town centres as expected, as these central areas

typically cost more per square metre on average. Large off-centre retail demands a similar average price per square

metre, yet in contrast the total rateable value income generated is broadly half of all town centre activity. In addition,

this ‘large retail’ subset of all off-centre retail, accounts for just over half of all retail in the hinterlands (fig. 3). These

levels are significant when considering the economic scale of revenues generated in context; whilst large off-centre

retail developments provide significant opportunities for Local Authority revenue, all other retail business space makes

up a larger majority of retail business activity from which to draw income.

Fig. 3 England and Wales retail rateable values, rounded to the nearest million from the summary valuation samples

Location Year Retail type Average £/m2 floor

space value

Total rateable value

(billions)

Town centre 2005 All £145 £7.588

Town centre 2010 All £167 £9.315

Out of town 2005 All £87 £6.602

Out of town 2010 All £106 £8.336

Out of town 2005 Large retail £147 £3.244

Out of town 2010 Large retail £182 £4.511

4.2 Localised patterns

The localised effect of retail performance and vitality was visible throughout the changing rateable values at the

hereditament level throughout the country, indicating street-level processes. We might expect the positive and negative

feedback of businesses with both high and low turnover, footfall and popularity through cumulative causation at the

street or neighbourhood level. Fig. 4 shows the example of streets in improvement and decline around Oxford Street,

Central London between 2005 and 2010, where the main drag of Oxford Street has suffered, yet some proximate streets

have flourished. The patterns evident gave us a certain confidence in the data to aggregate up to different scales and for

further modelling and generalisation.

Nationally we can observe a fragmented picture of vitality and decline, with several sub-regional hotspots of note, (fig.

5). A large part of south west England, the north west England coast, and north east England appear to be healthy-

performing retail areas when we look at retail floor space £ per m2 % change. Large areas of Wales, Yorkshire and also

parts of south eastern England appear to be in decline, although there exists the effect of a ‘market tone’ which is set by

each of the 8 VOA national regions where valuation is coordinated and carried out. In figure 5 we can observe a large

under-performing area spanning between South Yorkshire to Oxford which is the likely effect (in part) of the under-

valuation of property rates in 2010 by this VOA region also noted by industry, which will to some extents skew these

results.

Performance of the retail economy can be influenced by and considered within the context of its immediate hinterland

or neighbourhood, the functional economic market area in which it operates, or across an entire national region. These

multi-scale effects are suggested in many of the patterns observed. The North West of England for example has a

fragmented performance across many proximate towns, and each specific town centre and hinterland location within

this region will have its own set of conditions, opportunities and challenges. Indeed figure 6 shows the same broad

national patterns are not shown at the town centre level. In the case of larger conurbations we can detect geographic

patterns across these urban and economic areas, for example London exhibits its own South-East divide, where the

effect of the ‘island economy’ is really focused in the central and western areas. Regional-level conditions can only

identify underlying drivers to a limited degree; planning and economic policy is astute to create assumptions and

guidance according to many scales.

Town centre performance over time is fairly normally distributed nationally, with a slight positive skew where strongly

performing town centres are performing particularly well, the strength of Greater London accounting for some of this

strength in performance. The size of the town centre (measured in this case by its area defined by the geo-statistical

town centre boundary, as a proxy for its economic scale), is also unrelated to performance over time. Whilst the

complex nuances of a functional market hierarchy do not necessarily strictly accord to the geographical distribution of

centres, a visual investigation (fig. 6) of the relationship between performance and nearest neighbour proximity of other

town centres also shows no obvious relationship.

Fig. 4 Local patterns of retail floor space £ per m2 change between 2005 and 2010 in Soho, London

Fig. 5 Broad patterns of national retail floor space value change between 2005 and 2010, interpolated by hereditament

postcode

Fig. 6 Town centre retail floor space value change between 2005 and 2010

4.3 Large retail impact

The general pattern of results suggest the average floor space value (£ per m2) percentage change is lower within town

centres close to new off-centre large retail developments than across all town centres nationally (fig. 7). These results

provide a unique set of global quantitative evidence for the impact of building new large retail developments in

proximity to existing centres. Whilst the data does not assume uniform forces occurring at each location, it does give an

overall estimate of impact in economic terms, suggesting a negative overall effect on existing centres. This relationship

is stronger when we omit Greater London from the national pattern (fig. 8), which is an interesting and relevant sub-set

of data; typically in British studies we may consider the urban form of London and its local centres to differ markedly

as a conurbation to the functional hierarchy of much of the rest of the country. We may suggest therefore that the

impacts of new large proximate retail are felt more by centres outside of the London metropolitan area.

The impact of the scale of any new development emerges when comparing hypermarkets/superstores against smaller

retail developments categorised as ‘large food stores’ in the above figures, where larger developments have a bigger

detrimental effect on a town. Retail parks appear to have a negative effect both in and outside of Greater London, more

detrimental than large food stores, yet not as significant as hypermarkets or superstores. The type of retail development

is an important consideration when we contextualise impact; whilst supermarkets offering food shopping alternatives

may have impact on central food and drink stores, hypermarket and larger retail park developments often offer a more

diverse range of goods and services in competition with a much wider range of town centre businesses. Figure 8 for

example highlights the largest impact from hypermarkets outside London.

Fig. 7 Town centre retail performance in proximity to new off-centre large retail developments

Fig. 8 Town centre retail performance in proximity to new off-centre large retail developments, outside Greater London

5. Conclusion:

5.1 Research implications

The trend for off-centre retail developments is continuing, despite a period of recession and a longer-lasting set of

policy designed to discourage it. We appear to be in a dichotomy of a renewed government focus on town-centre and

high-street health whilst planning continues to be granted for large off-centre retail, which is tacitly recognised as

potentially damaging to the very same places. A key concern for this decision making is the lack of empirical evidence

at an extent to which we can confidently implement policy and guidelines and this study aims to begin to address that

gap. The use of VOA data and town centre boundaries has allowed us to explore the nature of the national retail

economy over space and time and whilst the data has exhibited some limitations, some interesting patterns have started

to emerge.

Local Authorities have a renewed vested interest for what is built within their borders with the new ‘business rates

retention scheme’ allowing the retention of any taxation generated within their borders. Measuring the relative revenues

of retail in context to town centre locations may be helpful to assess the value of both economies. Our results show that

large off-centre retail development is an important sizable economy when measured by rateable values, but not more

significant that town centre economies and other smaller off-centre retail.

Global statistics also suggest a detrimental effect of large retail developments if built within a 5km proximity to town

centres; the retail rateable value £ per m2 change over time is less than town centres generally in close proximity to new

developments of the same time. When considering the types of large retail as separate entities, the hypermarkets or

superstores (for example Tesco Extra or the larger ASDA Walmart stores) are the contemporary replication of the 1950s

town centre offer, serving multiple goods and services under one roof to the convenience-culture expectations of much

of our society. Whilst there have been past studies suggesting a beneficial relationship to town centres from increased

footfall of extremely proximate edge-of-centre developments, breathing life and employment in towns, it may be hard

to compete with the economies of scale on offer.

When considering the drivers of town centre retail performance, we must put the results into two main contexts,

essentially reflecting complexity; firstly the multi-scale and locally specific nature of impacts (what is a dominant

impact for one town centre may be less important for another) and secondly the existence of multi-faceted impacts and

the difficulty in isolating retail activity from other town centre forces of vitality. An interesting observation in the results

has been the difference between general area performance and town-centre level performance across the same areas,

which does not appear to accord to either the proximity of other centres, functional hierarchy or the scale of the centre,

suggesting a mix of local explanatory factors.

5.2 Limitations and further research The limitations to this study can be summarised generally by a few points. Firstly the Summary Valuation data, whilst

providing a good opportunity for proxy measures of retail performance where no other sources are available do not

serve the primary purpose of data analysis, rather they are designed for the collection of business rates and in this way

exhibit aspects of error when modelled. The most notable of these include the loose synergy of data collection methods

across the VOA regions with regard to recording the type or category of business, and the level at which the market

'tone' is set to determine the rateable value of the area. Though this unquantifiable variation appears at the regional

level, we may consider inter-regional town centre level impacts to remain similar, with the majority of retail types

broadly consistent with planning use classes, and 'large retail'. Any results should consider the use of rateable values as

an economic indicator; whilst it is a useful proxy it has a subtly different angle to the analysis than turnover data, with

the presumption that changes in the value of floor space reflect changes in turnover. Additionally, the comprehensive

nature of property taxation data in England and Wales may be a relatively unique resource, potentially limiting the

duplication of this analysis in an international context.

Secondly, whilst the global statistics for large retail impact are a useful measure, they must consider the ecological

fallacy of these headline results where there exist multi-scale processes at the town centre level; within these results

there is some variation from town to town dependent upon local circumstances. Similarly, there is a variation in the

types of impact, as we have grouped all types of 'large retail' offer together, including grocery, 'big box' retail parks, and

hypermarkets.

Thirdly, capturing the effects of retail within a much broader sense of ‘activity’ and economics is a key challenge which

may lend itself well to a multi-variate quantitative approach. Suitably detailed datasets would need to be obtained which

is outside this scope of research, but would make an interesting extension to the work. This could encompass

accessibility, functional hierarchy, public realm, geo-demographics and purchasing power for example, utilising data

from this or similar modelling. Repeating the modelling again in the post-recession economy would be another

interesting extension to work to examine any effect of the shock wave of economic crisis and future trends.

Acknowlegdements:

This work was made possible through fellowship funding from the UK National Centre for Research Methods (NCRM)

and the Talisman research group at the University of Leeds and University College London (UCL). Thanks is given for

advice and support throughout the work.

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