measuring vet participation by ses over time tom karmel and patrick lim ceet conference, 1 november...
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Measuring VET participation by SES over time
Tom Karmel and Patrick LimCEET conference, 1 November 2013
SEIFA
• Index of relative socio-economic disadvantage (IRSD)
• Index of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage (IRSAD)
• Index of education and occupation (IEO)• Index of economic resources (IER)
Population (POA)
Population (SLA)
Quintile 2006 2011 2006 2011
1 15.0 16.0 13.2 16.0
2 17.6 17.7 21.8 20.6
3 20.4 19.7 20.4 20.1
4 21.4 21.5 22.9 23.9
5 25.7 25.1 21.7 19.5Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Quintiles aint quintiles
15 to 19 Year
Olds20 to 24 Year
Olds
Quintile2006 POA
2006 SLA
2006 POA
2006 SLA
1 14.9 13.3 14.5 12.8
2 17.5 21.5 15.8 20.0
3 20.2 20.2 20.4 20.1
4 21.3 22.9 22.1 24.1
5 25.8 22.0 26.7 22.6
And even worse for particular age groups
2006 using 2006 Quintiles (SLA)
Qualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.4Certificate IV 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3Certificate III 7.9 9.5 9.5 8.7 6.5
Certificate II 10.4 10.6 9.3 6.9 5.4
Certificate I 2.9 2.6 2.6 1.8 1.1
Non-AQF 4.8 4.5 3.2 2.9 2.8
Module Only 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
Total 29.9 31.0 28.3 24.1 19.5
VET participation rates for 15-19 years, 2006
2011 using 2011 quintiles (SLA)Qualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.0Certificate IV 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 1.9Certificate III 13.4 15.2 14.3 13.1 8.4Certificate II 14.0 14.6 11.6 8.3 5.7
Certificate I 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.1
Non-AQF 3.0 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.7Module Only 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2
Total 37.3 39.5 35.2 29.8 20.9
VET participation rates for 15-19 years, 2011
2006 using 2006 Quintiles
Qualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.9
Certificate IV 2.0 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7
Certificate III 7.2 7.9 7.0 6.8 5.5
Certificate II 2.9 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.0
Certificate I 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3
Non-AQF 3.4 3.1 2.4 2.2 1.9
Module Only 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2
Total 19.2 19.1 16.7 15.7 13.5
VET participation rates for 20-24 years, 2006
2011 using 2011 quintiles
Qualification 1 2 3 4 5Diploma and above 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.3 3.0
Certificate IV 3.3 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.9
Certificate III 10.5 11.1 9.2 8.5 6.5
Certificate II 3.8 3.0 2.1 1.7 1.1
Certificate I 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2
Non-AQF 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.3
Module Only 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2
Total 24.4 24.6 20.1 18.9 15.1
VET participation for 20-24 years, 2011
2011 Quintiles
2006 Quintiles 1 2 3 4 5 Unknown Total
1 81 15 3 1 0 0 100
2 16 63 18 2 1 0 100
3 2 19 64 14 0 0 100
4 1 3 14 73 9 0 100
5 0 0 1 11 88 0 100
Unknown 13 0 0 4 17 67 100
2006 SEIFA against 2011 SEIFA (IRSD) by POA
2011 Quintiles2006 Quintiles 1 2 3 4 5 Unknown Total
1 88 11 0 0 1 1 100
2 15 74 11 0 0 0 100
3 0 18 69 12 0 0 100
4 0 0 16 75 7 2 100
5 0 0 1 10 88 1 100
Unknown 9 0 6 0 0 86 100
2006 SEIFA against 2011 SEIFA (IRSD), by SLA
Apparent and actual educational participation rates in a hypotheticalexample.
Quintile
2006 collection using 2006
2011 collection using 2006 quintiles
2011 collection using 2011 quintiles
1 40.5 44.9 42.1
2 45.3 48.5 44.4
3 32.4 36.6 36.2
4 24.2 25.2 27.4
5 19.6 19.4 21.3Total 15 to 19 year olds 30.7 33.0 33.0
15-19 year old VET participation rates, 2006 and 2011, POA
Quintile
Actual change 2006
- 2011
Estimated change 2006 – 2011 using
2006 quintiles
Difference between
actual change and
estimated change
% of actual change 2006
- 2011
1 1.7 4.5 -2.8 -169.1
2 -0.9 3.2 -4.1 458.3
3 3.8 4.2 -0.4 -10.9
4 3.2 1.0 2.2 68.1
5 1.7 -0.2 1.9 110.6Total 15 to 19 year olds 2.3 2.3 -0.1 -2.4
15-19 years VET participation rate, changes between 2006 and 2011, POA
Actual and apparent changes in VET participation for age by SES quintiles, 2006-2011, SEIFA (ISRD), POA (percentage points)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Actual changeApparent change
Quintile
Actual Change 2006 - 2011
Estimated change 2006 - 2011 using the 2006
Difference between actual and estimated change
% of actual change 2006 - 2011
1 7.4 9.0 1.6 21.4
2 8.5 10.0 1.5 17.9
3 6.9 8.4 1.6 22.94 5.6 6.5 0.8 14.4
5 1.4 4.0 2.6 182.5Total 15 to 19 year olds 2.2 2.6 0.4 19.8
15-19 years VET participation rate, changes between 2006 and 2011, SLA
Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 15-19 years, by SES quintile, 2011
1 2 3 4 50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
ApparentActual
Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 20-24 years, by SES quintile, 2011
1 2 3 4 50
5
10
15
20
25
30
ApparentActual
Apparent and actual VET participation rates for those aged 24-64 years, by SES quintile, 2011
1 2 3 4 50
5
10
15
20
25
30
ApparentActual
Actual and apparent changes in VETparticipation for age by SES quintiles,2006-2011, SEIFA (ISRD), SLA (percentage points)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Actual changeApparent change
More work to be done
• Same exercise for higher education• Figure out how to analyse accuracy of
estimates at qualification level
Summary
• Quintiles ain’t quintiles.• Important to calculate participation rates
rather than use 20% as a reference.• Equity issue in VET not obvious.• In respect of SEIFA, level of regional
classification matters.• SEIFA at SLA level seems ok, but need to test
methodology every census.