measuring wilderness recreation use: counts & visit/visitor characteristics

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Measuring Wilderness Recreation Use: Counts & Visit/Visitor

Characteristics

Adapted from a presentation by:Vita Wright and Brian GlaspellResearch Application Program

Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research InstituteMissoula, Montana

http://leopold.wilderness.net

Social & EcologicalResearch

Research Application

Today’s Objectives Status of wilderness use estimation Handbook of methods & systems Components of a use estimation system Common types of use estimation

systems

Reported Use Trends:How Accurate Are They?

0

25,00050,000

75,000

100,000

125,000150,000

175,000

200,000

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

482% 121%

403% 619% 184%

Increase

Year

Est

imat

ed #

vis

itors

1

1Based on USFS Recreation Visitor-Days as reported

Wilderness Use Estimation USFS Survey1 Results:

Most managers indicated: Limited resources available (funding,

personnel, equipment, training) Few systematic efforts to estimate use Little confidence in existing data Wide variation in experience with

methods 1USFS Regions 4, 5, 8

Wilderness Use EstimationAll Agencies

Managers from 423 of 440 wildernesses were surveyed

63% relied on “best guesses” to estimate visitor use

-- McClaran and Cole. 1993.

Why Monitor Social Conditions (visitor use) In

Wilderness? Meet legal mandates (Wilderness Act,

RPA1, etc.) and agency policy direction Increase confidence: Demand

projections and use trends Input to decisions about limiting,

managing, or distributing visitor use Credibility and support: Budget

requests or management decisions1Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act (1974)

Why Monitor Social Conditions (visitor use) In

Wilderness? Management plans and actions LAC/VERP and baseline data needs Where/when to allocate field

personnel Determining facility needs Agency reporting What else?

Commonly Identified Needs

How to estimate use with multiple access points and/or highly dispersed use?

How to estimate and correlate registration rates, permit compliance, etc.?

How to assess previously collected data? How to do statistical sampling and

calculations? How to get the best data for the least

effort/cost? What are other places/agencies doing?

Wilderness Recreation Use Estimation: A Handbook of Methods and Systems

http://leopold.wilderness.net/htopics/recuse.htm

What Is a Wilderness Use Estimation System?

1. Objectives2. Use characteristics of interest3. Appropriate measurement techniques4. Appropriate sampling strategy5. Data analysis and summary

System = Technique

Handbook Organization

Components of a use estimation systemComponents of a use estimation system Objectives & use characteristics Use estimation techniques Sampling strategies for data collection

Step-by-step implementation of 10 major Step-by-step implementation of 10 major use estimation systemsuse estimation systems

Recreation Use Measurements

Counts Visitor-hours Recreation visitor

days Sociodemographics Visitor knowledge Visitor attitudes and

preferences

Method of travel Group size Activity Length of stay Distribution Etc.

Step 1: Clarify Objectives

WhyWhy are you collecting visitor use information?

WhatWhat question(s) are you trying to answer, and where?where?

HowHow are you planning to use this information?

WhoWho is interested in this information?

Examples of Objectives – Why?

Obtain baseline information Track trends Link recreation use with changes in

ecological conditions Allocate/prioritize resources Analyze effects or need for closures

& other administrative decisions

More Objectives – Why? Identify commercial vs. noncommercial use Improve communication with visitors Identify different visitor groups Set social standards (planning frameworks) Prove/disprove assumptions

Example Objectives Statement Managers at XXXX Wilderness want to know if the

amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since baseline data was collected in 1985. (day and/or overnight use)


amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since baseline data was collected in 1985.

Information will be gathered to estimate the amount, type, and distribution of use.

Desired sociodemographics data includes age, sex, income, residence, and # of previous visits.


amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since the permit system was discontinued in 1985.


Desired sociodemographics data includes age, sex, income, residence, and # of previous visits.

This information is needed for revision of the management plan.


amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since the permit system was discontinued in 1985.


Desired sociodemographics data include age, sex, income, residence, and # of previous visits.

This information is needed for revision of the management plan.

Data collection will be considered part of existing personnel duties. It is anticipated that personnel can contribute 1-2 days/week to data collection. Minimal funds are available for additional equipment.

Step 2: What Use Characteristics Do

You Want To Measureto Meet Your Objectives?

Step 2: What Use Characteristics Do You

Want To Measure? (p. 9) Visit counts: Number of times past

a site Visit attributes: Characteristics of

visits Visitor attributes: Characteristics of

visitors Summary use statistics: Combine

visit attributes with visit counts

Summary-Use StatisticsSummary-Use Statistics(Counts + visit attributes(Counts + visit attributes)Visitor-days (24 hrs)Recreation visitor-days (12)Overnight stays

Visit AttributesVisit AttributesMethod of travelGroup sizeLength of stayActivityCommercial servicesTemporal distributionSpatial distributionWilderness conditions

Visitor AttributesVisitor AttributesSociodemographicsPast experienceKnowledgeAttitudes & preferences

Visit CountsVisit CountsIndividual visitsGroup visits

Use Characteristics –Do they meet objectives?Visit countsVisit counts.. Site-specific plans for high use sites; ignores

visit attributes Method of travel, group size, spatial & temporal Method of travel, group size, spatial & temporal

distributiondistribution.. Location & nature of impacts; field personnel allocation

Commercial useCommercial use.. Necessity of commercial allocations; impacts; trends; conflicts

SociodemographicsSociodemographics. Visitor contact methodsPast experience & knowledgePast experience & knowledge. Resource protection &

education strategiesAttitudes & preferencesAttitudes & preferences. Anticipate response to

management strategies

Information will be gathered to estimate:

amount, amount, type, and type, and distribution of distribution of

use. use.

Sociodemographics include:

age, age, sex, sex, income, income, residence, and residence, and # of previous visits.# of previous visits.

Example Objectives StatementManagers want to know if the amount of use and amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since baseline sociodemographics have changed since baseline data was collecteddata was collected in 1985.

Step 3: WhichMeasurement Techniques

Meet Your Needs?

Visual Observation

External, internal, roaming

Categories of Use Estimation Techniques

Permits

Registration

Surveys Indirect Estimation

Mechanical Counters

Structure of Systems

Use characteristics that can be measured Measurement techniques Equipment purchase Equipment installation Data collection strategies Visitor use calculation

Choosing a Counter Sample from Handbook (p. 23)

Installation site Equipment vandalism Environmental influences on accuracy Cost Maintenance requirements Method of calibration

Types of CountersType Approx. Cost Accuracy Vandal

Resistance

Active Infrared

$200-$1200 Good-Very Good

Average

Passive Infrared

$130-$400 Poor Good

Seismic $75-$350 Poor-Average

Very Good

Inductive Loop

$300 Not evaluated

Not evaluated

System B: Steps (p. 79)Counters with observer

calibration1. Use

characteristics measured

2. Counter type3. Number of

counters needed4. Calibration

method5. Sampling plan

6. Purchase equipment

7. Install equipment 8. Collect

calibration data9. Collect counter

data10.Estimate use

System G: Steps (p. 128)Permits with compliance checks

and interviews1. Use

characteristics2. Permit form3. Permit-issue

procedure4. Sampling plan5. Purchase/install

equipment

6. Select/train interviewers

7. Collect compliance rate and interview data

8. Estimate use

Summary of Techniques

The most appropriate technique provides:The most appropriate technique provides: Data that meet objectives Minimal visitor burden Acceptable cost Desired accuracy

What determines if a sampling technique is good?

All methods are ‘good’ and can produce high quality results

All methods can be ‘bad’ without ‘good’ application

To assure ‘good’ results be sure to have a ‘good’: - sampling strategy/plan - implementation of sampling plan


1) Objectives2) Use characteristics 3) Measurement techniques4)4) Sampling strategySampling strategy5) Data analysis and summary

System = Technique

Step 4:Design a Sampling Plan (i.e. Strategy for Data

Collection)

Why Sample and not Census Efficiency

Sampling = studying a part to gain information about the whole

Less time and cost than a census of the entire population

Obtain a sample that is representative of the population

Why Statistics?

So we can sample rather than census the population.

Helps us design projects that meet our accuracy goals.

Helps us understand what we can and can’t say about our population, from our data.

Discuss results in probability terms:“I am 95% confident that between June 1 and September 30, there were between 5,250 and 5,340 visits to the XXX Wilderness.”

Right 19 of 20 times

Confidence in Numbers(Based on Random Sampling)

Eliminating Bias…Bias = some units represented more in

sample than population1) Convenience/judgment sampling

based on assumptions/guesses may not represent the population

2) Random sampling protect against bias represent the population

Steps Before Sampling1) Define the population2) Define the sampling unit3) Determine appropriate sample size

PopulationAll members of the group that

you want to learn about

Group:All visitorsDay usersPackstock users

Bounds:Entire WildernessLocal populationSummer dates

Sampling unit = subset

Sample Size:How many days to

sample?How many people to

sample?

How many days to sample?How many people to sample?Based on: Variability in measured characteristic;

obtained from a previously collected data or preliminary survey

How precise do you want your sample estimate to be?

Cost: available personnel & budget

Precision vs. cost

Step 5: Entering and Analyzing Data

What tools do you have? Software: Excel, Access, SPSS, SPLUS, others?

The Analysis Paralysis What to do with all the data ? Count and weigh the boxes Use locally generated

database/spreadsheet programs Use corporate information management

programs (i. e. FS Infra-WILD VUPS)

Analysis Paralysis solutions?Analysis of data is just as important as

collection of data Plan ahead Include in cost estimates Seek help through agency IM staff and

other wilderness managers Utilize off-season volunteers, SCA, front

office staff, university grad. student ???


1) Objectives2) Use characteristics of interest3) Appropriate measurement techniques4) Appropriate sampling strategy5) Data analysis and summary

System = Technique

Types of Use Estimation Systems

Convenience or judgment sampling

External Visual Observations

Internal Visual Observations – stationary and roaming

Mechanical Traffic Counters

Registration Permits – limited

and non-limited Visitor Surveys Indirect estimation Aerial surveys


Convenience or Judgment SamplingConvenience or Judgment Sampling(Best Guesses)(Best Guesses)

Inherent bias due to biased sample selection and untested assumptions

Common examples:- visitors that are convenient or easily

surveyed- vocal supporters or critics- visitors at easily accessible trailheads


External Visual ObservationExternal Visual ObservationObservation of visitors as they leave or

enter the wilderness by staff or cameras Use – Small number of portals, regular

contacts exist already Costs – High for personnel, cameras Accuracy – variable, requires

systematic sampling plan Results – Amount, entry/exit, type, age

Ethical and legal considerationsEthical and legal considerations


Internal Visual Observation - StationaryInternal Visual Observation - StationaryObservation of visitors at specific locations in

wilderness by staff or cameras Use – Assess visitor use on a trail segment or at

a destination area Costs – Variable, higher if cameras used Accuracy – Variable, requires systematic

sampling plan Results - Amount, entry/exit, type, age,

destination

Effective at popular destinationsEffective at popular destinations


Internal Visual Observation - RoamingInternal Visual Observation - RoamingObservations of visitors taken during wilderness

ranger patrols Use – Overnight stays at destinations or by trail

segments Costs – Low, as part of routine work Accuracy – Low due to non-random scheduling

and bias towards heavy use areas and trails Results – Amount, type, age, destination,

possibly number of days or nights

Systematic sampling strategies critical to Systematic sampling strategies critical to minimize difficulty of mobile visitors and minimize difficulty of mobile visitors and observersobservers


Mechanical Traffic CountersMechanical Traffic CountersCounters: photoelectric, sensor-plate, and loop-

type Use – Number of visitors at location by time

period. (Can be combined with observation) Costs – High for equipment and personnel Accuracy – High if installation, calibration,

and maintenance is adequate Results – Amount, type, frequency, location

Counters must be calibrated against a known Counters must be calibrated against a known and accurate standard and maintainedand accurate standard and maintained


Voluntary RegistrationVoluntary RegistrationVoluntary trailhead cards or sheets filled out at

entry (and exit) Use – All data types, constrained only by OMB

approval Costs – Moderate for station construction and

maintenance Accuracy – Variable due to maintenance and

estimation of compliance rates, user types Results – Comprehensive Voluntary, must have compliance estimates Voluntary, must have compliance estimates

and maintenanceand maintenance


Required Permits - Limited/non-limitedRequired Permits - Limited/non-limitedRequired use authorization forms (permits) issued

by agency Use - All data types, constrained only by OMB

approval Costs – Variable based on type of system

(unlimited self-issue, limited reservation, etc.) Accuracy – High, based on compliance Results – Comprehensive

‘‘Permits’ controversial, especially if limited, Permits’ controversial, especially if limited, provides contact opportunityprovides contact opportunity


Visitor SurveysVisitor SurveysContacting a sample of visitors, obtaining

information via interview or survey Use - All data types, possibly constrained only

by OMB approval Costs – High for survey design, mail, data

collection, analysis Accuracy – Variable, based on sampling

procedure Results – Comprehensive

Visitor preference vs. necessary management for Visitor preference vs. necessary management for wilderness stewardship decisionswilderness stewardship decisions


Indirect EstimationIndirect EstimationEstimation of use based on other variables (i.e.

overnight camping use based on trailhead car counts)

Use – Visits, time spent, type, encounters Costs – High initially to develop predictive

relationships, then low Accuracy – Variable, based on strength of

predictor variable and relationship Results – Limited based on lack of testing

Selection of predictors and evaluation of Selection of predictors and evaluation of relationships critical relationships critical


Aerial SurveysAerial SurveysRemote sensing via aircraft or satellite Use – Visits (on rivers), vegetative type,

condition, or cover trends, ??? Costs – High Accuracy - Undetermined Results – Largely unknown

Low altitude flights incompatible with wildernessLow altitude flights incompatible with wilderness

Use Estimation MethodsLong term cost efficient strategyLong term cost efficient strategy

Direct counts: Counters and calibration Voluntary registration and compliance Non-voluntary registration/permits and

complianceIndirect counts: Observation, survey, etc.

One method of direct counting is needed in One method of direct counting is needed in order to rely on indirect counts for order to rely on indirect counts for subsequent years.subsequent years.

Techniques and EquipmentTechniques and Equipment for Gathering

Visitor Use Data on Recreation Sites Yuan, Kocis, and Hoshide, August 1995

Missoula Technology and Development Center

http://fsweb.mtdc.wo.fs.fed.us/programs/rec/index.htm

> products > documents in stock > 9523-2838



Wilderness Recreation Use Estimation: A Handbookof Methods and Systems

http://leopold.wilderness.net/htopics/recuse.htmhttp://leopold.wilderness.net/htopics/recuse.htm

FS – Infra-WILD - VUPS ExampleData Entry and Reporting

Quota Systems or Unlimited Permits/Registration

Data Entry Permit Form – real time Speedo Form – customize for batch

INFRA-Wild Speedo Data Entry Form

INFRA-Wild Speedo Definition Form

FS – Infra-WILD - VUPS ExampleData Entry and Reporting

Quota Systems or Unlimited Permits/Registration

Reports Standard elements User Views (Excel, Access, ArcView)

Use Characteristics –Do they meet objectives?

Recreation Visitor-DaysRecreation Visitor-Days. Can determine use by visit attribute (travel mode, activity); day/overnight use; total use

Overnight countsOvernight counts. Campsite impacts & use; ignores day use

measuring wilderness recreation use: counts & visit/visitor characteristics

Documents

use trends

dispersed use

visitor use management

visitor usecredibility

legal mandates wilderness

social conditions visitor

usfs recreation visitordays

best data