mechanisms of crowding-out and crowding-in: private contributions to international aid in 18...
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Presentation at ERNOP International Conference, Riga, July 11TRANSCRIPT
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Arjen de WitERNOP Conference, Riga
July 11, 2013
Mechanisms of crowding-out and crowding-in
Private contributions to international aid in 18 European welfare states
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So what?● Welfare states under pressure● How are private contributions affected by
(changes in) institutions?– Do citizens contribute more in smaller
welfare states?– Or do generous welfare states
encourage private contributions?
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Crowding-out research● Theoretical foundations: Alexis de
Tocqueville, Robert Nisbet, Milton Friedman● Most current research Anglo-American● Two strands of research:
– Economics– Sociology
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Crowding-out research● Theoretical foundations: Alexis de
Tocqueville, Robert Nisbet, Milton Friedman● Most current research Anglo-American● Two strands of research:
– Economics– Sociology
● Paradox: there is evidence for crowding-out, but hardly in survey studies
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The challenge● Under which conditions does crowding-out
occur?● Does crowding-out exist for giving money
as well as other forms of participation?● How can it be explained?
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Data and method● European Social Survey 2002● No. of countries: 20● N = 38,959● Donated money / did voluntary work in last
12 months (yes/no)● Country data: IMF, OECD● Multilevel random-effects logistic regression
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Data and method● European Social Survey 2002● No. of countries: 20 18● N = 38,959 32,870● Donated money / did voluntary work in last
12 months (yes/no)● Country data: IMF, OECD● Multilevel random-effects logistic regression
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Data and method● European Social Survey 2002● No. of countries: 20 18 17● N = 38,959 32,870 31,466● Donated money / did voluntary work in last
12 months (yes/no)● Country data: IMF, OECD● Multilevel random-effects logistic regression
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Data and method● European Social Survey 2002● No. of countries: 20 18 17 15● N = 38,959 32,870 31,466 28,188● Donated money / did voluntary work in last
12 months (yes/no)● Country data: IMF, OECD● Multilevel random-effects logistic regression
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Mechanisms● Welfare state expenditures in a sector
affect organisations in that sector● Total welfare state expenditures affect
people's resources● Welfare state regime type affects people's
values
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Testing the mechanisms (1)● Welfare state expenditures in a sector
affect organisations in that sector● Total welfare state expenditures affect
people's resources● Welfare state regime type affects people's
values
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Higher international aid, more giving..
0
1
2
3
4
5
ODAODA controlled for subsidies to NGOs
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
15 countriesN = 28,188
*
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...partly explained by organisation effects
0
1
2
3
4
5
ODAODA controlled for subsidies to NGOs
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
*
*
15 countriesN = 28,188
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Effects smaller for volunteering
0
1
2
3
4
5
ODAODA controlled for subsidies to NGOs
Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations
* *
15 countriesN = 28,188
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Testing the mechanisms (2)● Welfare state expenditures in a sector
affect organisations in that sector● Total welfare state expenditures affect
people's resources● Welfare state regime type affects people's
values
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Expenditures have no effect on giving
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
ExpendituresExpenditures controlled for educationExpenditures controlled for education and income security
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
17 countriesN = 31,466
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Expenditures have no effect on giving
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
ExpendituresExpenditures controlled for educationExpenditures controlled for education and income security
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
17 countriesN = 31,466
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Expenditures have no effect on giving
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
ExpendituresExpenditures controlled for educationExpenditures controlled for education and income security
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
17 countriesN = 31,466
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No effects for volunteering either
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
ExpendituresExpenditures controlled for educationExpenditures controlled for education and income security
Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations
17 countriesN = 31,466
(*)
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Testing the mechanisms (3)● Welfare state expenditures in a sector
affect organisations in that sector● Total welfare state expenditures affect
people's resources● Welfare state regime type affects people's
values
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Welfare state regime types
UniversalismDe-commodification Low High
Low Anglo-Saxon and MediterraneanUK, IL, IT, ES, PT
Central and Eastern EuropeanHU, PL, SI
High ConservativeFR, DE, AT, BE, LU
SocialistFI, NL, DK, SE, NO
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Welfare state regime type matters...
CEE Conservative Socialist0
1
2
3
4
5
Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
18 countriesN = 32,870
(*)
*
(*)
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Welfare state regime type matters...
CEE Conservative Socialist0
1
2
3
4
5
Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
18 countriesN = 32,870
(*) *
**
(*)
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..partly because it encourages trust
CEE Conservative Socialist0
1
2
3
4
5
Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust
Odds ratios on donating money to international aid organisations
18 countriesN = 32,870
(*) *
**
*
(*)
(*)
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Same (but smaller) effects for volunteering
CEE Conservative Socialist0
1
2
3
4
5
Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust
Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations
18 countriesN = 32,870
*
*
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Same (but smaller) effects for volunteering
CEE Conservative Socialist0
1
2
3
4
5
Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust
Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations
18 countriesN = 32,870
* *
**
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Same (but smaller) effects for volunteering
CEE Conservative Socialist0
1
2
3
4
5
Regime typeRegime type controlled for values of solidarityRegime type controlled for solidarity and trust
Odds ratios on volunteering in international aid organisations
18 countriesN = 32,870
* *
***
*
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Conclusions● Crowding-in when looking at sector● No resources mechanism● Welfare state regime type matters (but
how?)● Same effects for giving and volunteering
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Towards better crowding-out research
● More specific variables● Testing mechanisms● Testing conditions● Testing causality