mediated modelling integrating the four aspects of well-being in auckland to support spatial...

Mediated Modelling Integrating the four aspects of well-being in Auckland

to support Spatial Planning

Sustainable Pathways 2 Project

Goal: to provide synergistic tools to support integrated, decision making in Auckland and Wellington.Outputs:

1. A system dynamics model that can be used by a wide range of stakeholders

2. A spatial decision support system operated by council staff

Both models allow the simulation of development pathways and visualisation of future change.

The System Dynamics Model

• This model was developed using mediated modelling and therefore reflects the views of the stakeholders involved

• It integrates the four aspects of well-being (cultural, social, economic and environmental)

• The feedback loops and delays can be described using a Causal Loop Diagram as follows:

The Story of the Auckland Region in a Causal Loop Diagram

Population& cultural diversity

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R1

Education Drives Growth

Under the anticipated population growth scenarios about 60,000 new students will need education. When more children are educated, they have more chance of being employed resulting in more economic activity and therefore a more attractive region. The latter will foster more migration to the region resulting in a reinforcing feedback loop.

Education

Employment Economics

Attractiveness Funding

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Education also improves health which in turn improves employment, the regional economy and the attractiveness of the region.

Education

health



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Education Improves Healthwhich Drives Growth


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More people employed and an attractive regional economy increases the public funds (such as taxes due to more inhabitants) that can be derived from this economy. More funds can e.g. Be spend on the restoration of natural capital. However, it takes time to restore natural capital and derive ecosystem service benefits!

Education

health



Governance or policies solutions

Natural Capital

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Employment generates taxes for the restoration of Natural Capital


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The next loop in this diagram is a balancing loop as population growth puts pressure on the health care system (e.g. more people, as a fraction of a growing population, require health care services. How well the healthcare services meet the demand for healthcare services, in turn impacts employment and the regional economy. If demand is higher than supply a negative impact on the attractiveness of the region emerges through increased unemployment affecting migration flows lowering the population.

Education

health




Natural Capital

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Population Growth setspressure on Health System


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A second balancing loop is related to population growth negatively affecting natural capital though urbanisation.

Education

health




Natural Capital

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R2


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B1


B2

Population Growth setspressure on Natural Capital


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Education

health




Natural Capital

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R2


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Social(e.g., Housing

crowding)

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Crowding impacts education

Population density is currently chosen as a proxy for deprivation and poverty influencing “housing”. This impacts ethnic groups differently and thereby impacts on Education (and Health).


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Population growth also demands more transport.

Education

health




Natural Capital

Transport

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crowding)

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Natural Capital affects active mode in transport, which impacts on Health, i.e. Reducing the fraction of young and elderly requiring health care services.

Education

health




Natural Capital

Transport

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R2


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crowding)

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Transport impacts health through active mode (and emissions).

Education

health




Natural Capital

Transport

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R2


R3


B1


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crowding)

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External factors (e.g., climate change) impact population growth.

Education

health




Natural Capital

Transport

External Factors(e.g., climate change)

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R2


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crowding)

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Education

health



Cultural


Natural Capital

Transport


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R2


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Reminder to link the “Cultural sector” into this causal loop diagram

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crowding)

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Education

health



Cultural


Natural Capital

Transport


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crowding)

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THE END!

Conclusions

• Interlinkages and time lags are important to future outcomes.

• The Causal Loop Diagram is one way to visualise the important linkages and time lags built into the system dynamics model.

• The Story underlying the Causal Loop Diagram allows stakeholders to communicate the interlinkages and time lags to others.

mediated modelling integrating the four aspects of well-being in auckland to support spatial...

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