Medical Consequences of a Nuclear Plant Attack or Accident around Chicago

Andrew S. Kanter, MD MPH

Physicians for Social Responsibility/Chicago Chapter

Agenda for Today

Introduction

The World Today: Fear and Opportunity

Nuclear Power Plant Security

Fissile Materials as Targets for Attack

Medical Consequences of Attacks on Braidwood

The splitting of the atom changed everything, save our modes of thinking, and we thus drift towards unparalleled catastrophe.

-Albert Einstein, 1946

The single greatest danger…

Nuclear Power Plants in the US

104 operating nuclear power plants and 36 non-power reactors in the US

11 operating plants in Northern Illinois

Produce 8% of the nation’s energy

Common Reactor Types

Boiling Water Pressurized Water

Images from NRC

Spent Fuel StorageAfter 12-24 months in the reactor, fuel is offloaded into cooling ponds

Must remain until cool

More than 10x the radioactive material than the core (20-50 million curies Cs-137-Chernobyl released 2 million curies)

Nuclear Plant SecurityCore protected by containment dome

Coolant supply critical (20,000-500,000 g/m)

Spent fuel pools vulnerable

Security strengthened after 9/11

Force-on-Force tests woefully inadequateSmall group of terrorists with one insider

Lone insider

Four-wheel drive vehicle bomb

Accident/Attack at Braidwood

PWR producing 2500 MW at full power

50+ mi SW of Chicago

Two scenarios:

Reactor vessel breach

Spent fuel pond fire

Analysis Tools

HPAC- Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency

CATS- Consequences Assessment Tool Set from the Federal Emergency Management Agency

Braidwood Scenario 1

Catastrophic coolant failure

Core exposed causing fire and breach

4% of core/hr burned

Summer Day

Normal Temperatures

Broken Clouds

Radiation SicknessThe signs and symptoms of radiation sickness

include:Nausea and vomiting

Diarrhea

Skin burns

Weakness/Fatigue

Loss of appetite

Fainting

Inflammation of tissues

Mucosal bleeding

Low red blood cell count/anemia

Hair loss

Biological Effects of Radiation (REM)0-20 Potential for genetic consequences

20-100 Temporary decrease in white blood cell count.

100-200 Acute radiation sickness - nausea, vomiting, longer-term decrease in white blood cells.

200-300 Vomiting, diarrhea, loss of appetite, death in some cases.

300-600 Vomiting, diarrhea, hemorrhaging, deaths occurring in 50% of cases at 350+ REM

Above 600 Eventual death in almost all cases

Braidwood Total Effective Dose Equivalent

South Bend

Fort Wayne

Joliet

Braidwood Evacuation Area

Grand Rapids

Medical ConsequencesThe number of acutely ill people would overwhelm all available care facilities

Many facilities will not be available due to contamination:

113 hospitals would fall within the occupational exposure zone (including two VA hospitals) affecting more than 32,000 potential beds.

Nearly 20,000 physicians in five counties would receive greater than occupational maximums for radiation exposure from the plume itself, let alone that from contaminated patients.

Medical ConsequencesFirst responders, like firefighters would also be badly affected. The 25 firefighters of Essex Fire Department would possibly receive lethal doses, and the 67 firefighters of Braidwood and Herscher departments would be suffering from radiation sickness.

Another 10,500 firefighters in 355 other departments would have exceeded occupational exposures from the plume itself and would be unavailable to respond within the highly contaminated area. Police departments would also be hard hit in Essex, Braidwood and Herscher with the 38 police officers receiving potentially lethal doses of radiation.

Braidwood Scenario 2Spent Fuel Pond (SPF) Fire--Loss of coverage causing Zirconium fire

3 assemblies destroyed, releasing Cs-137

Cs-137 half-life of 60 years, potent gamma emitter. 50% of 10-y.o. fuel is Cs.

Summer Day

Normal Temperatures

Broken Clouds

No Security Plans for SFP

The NRC has denied petitions by citizen groups seeking enhanced protections from terrorist acts against reactor spent-fuel pools.

In its decision, the NRC has asserted that “the possibility of a terrorist attack . . . is speculative and simply too far removed from the natural or expected consequences of agency action . . . ”

SFP Total Effective Dose Equivalent

SFP Evacuation Area

SFP Thyroid Dose Protection

Indian Point Comparison

3,500-44,000 immediate deaths

100,000-500,000 long term deaths due to cancer

Economic damages within 100 mi range from $1.1-2.1 trillion

What You Can DoSpeak out and educate

Write to your leaders, newspapers, friends

Stop producing more nuclear materials

Secure all existing nuclear materials

Shut down nuclear power plants and transition to renewable sources

Transfer waste from wet pools to dry storage casks

Develop long term storage for waste on site

For More Information

Chicago PSR:

4750 N. Sheridan Road #439Chicago, IL 60640(773) 989-4655 info@psrchicago.org

R. Alvarez et al., “Reducing the Hazards from Stored Spent Power-Reactor Fuel in the United States,” Science and Global Security 11 (2003): 1-51.

D. Hirsch, “The NRC: What, me worry?,” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 58(1): 38-44.

E. Lyman, “Chernobyl on the Hudson?,” Union of Concerned Scientists, September 2004: 1-54.

Visit PSR’s website at:

http://www.psr.org

or contact PSR at:

1875 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 1012Washington, DC, 20009Telephone: (202) 667-4260Fax: (202) 667-4201

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