meeting california’s need for collegegraduates: the...

Meeting California’s Need for College Graduates: The Fresno Perspective

Hans Johnson

Supported with funding from the College Futures Foundation and the Sutton FamilyFund

December 2017

California faces a large workforce skills gap

2

§ California’s economy relies heavily on highly educated workers– By 2030, the state will need 1.1 million more college

graduates—above and beyond the current pace– To meet the shortfall, the state must substantially improve

college graduation for underrepresented groups§ Most students attend college close to home

– Colleges must act regionally to improve outcomes

Three regions will play a critical rolein closingthe gap

San Joaquin ValleyPop: 4.0 million

Inland EmpirePop: 4.2 million

3

Los Angeles CountyPop: 9.8 million

Outline

4

§ Economic demand§ Pathway to a bachelor’s degree§ Setting goals

Demand for college graduates varies acrossregions

5Note: Based on ACS data for 20-64 year old employed workers

75%62%

50% 50% 51%

20% 17%

100%

75%

50%

25%

0%Inland Empire San Joaquin

ValleyLos Angeles

CountySan Diego

CountySacramento

metroOrange County

Bay Area

College graduates’ share of new employment, 2010-2015

Net employmentgain: 194k 121k 377k 185k 98k 128k 419k

California’s regions are growing apart:Regional Per Capita Income Relative to State (100 = State PCI)

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

2009

2013

Bay Area

Orange County

Los Angeles County

Sacramento Metro

San Joaquin Valley

Inland Empire

Source: Hans Johnson, PPIC, based on US Bureau of Economic Analysis data

Large regional increases in baccalaureate degreesare needed to close the statewide skillsgap

119,000 125,000

513,000

240,000 228,000

688,000

100,000

-

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Inland Southern California

San Joaquin Valley

Los Angeles County

Num

ber o

f bac

helo

r's d

egre

esaw

arde

dby

pub

licun

iver

sitie

s

2015-16 to 2029-30 baseline scenario

2015-16 to 2029-30 closing-the-gap need-based scenario

7

Fresno County and the four districts shareofthe gap

8

All bachelor'sdegrees

CSUbachelor's

degrees

UCbachelor's

degrees

CSU and UC bachelor's

degrees

Statewide gap 1,067,000 481,000 251,000 732,000

Fresno county share 32,200 14,500 7,600 22,100

Fresno four-district share 22,500 10,100 5,300 15,400

Number of additional bachelors degrees, 2015-30

Outline

9


Students fall out of the higher educationpipeline at critical transition points

225 fromUCor CSU

10

Most 9th graders will not earn a bachelor’sdegree: San Joaquin Valley pathways

178 fromUCor CSU

The higher education pipeline in FresnoCounty

1000

829

526

258

167

0 200 800 1000

Enter 9th grade

Earn high school diploma

Attend public college (including community college)

Attend UC or CSU (freshman or transfer)

Number of students400 600

Central Unified

Clovis Unified

Fresno Unified

Sanger Unified

Other Fresno County district

San Joaquin Valley

California

Graduate with a bachelor's degree from UC orCSU

12


1000

829

6

942

452

7 7

258380

167251

0 200 800 1000

Enter 9th grade





Central Unified

Clovis Unified

Fresno Unified

Sanger Unified


San Joaquin Valley

California


13


1000

829

526

258

747

380

942855

655

336

0 200 800 1000

Enter 9th grade





Central Unified

Clovis Unified

Fresno Unified

Sanger Unified


San Joaquin Valley

California

167251


213

14


1000

829

526

258

167

747

380

251

942855

655

336

213

970

789

373

0 200 800 1000

Enter 9th grade




Graduate with a bachelor's degree from UC or


Central Unified

Clovis Unified

Fresno Unified

Sanger Unified


San Joaquin Valley

California

243CSU

15


16

1000

829

526

258

167

747

380

251

942855

655

336

213

970

789

373

734

570

258

243168

554

259

178

833823

530

313

225

0 200 800 1000

Enter 9th grade






Central Unified

Clovis Unified

Fresno Unified

Sanger Unified


San Joaquin Valley

California

Where do students in the San Joaquin Valleyfall off the path to a bachelor’sdegree?

Did not finish high school,

22%

17

Finished high school, but did

not attend college, 24%

Attended college, but did not

attend a four -year college, 39%

Attended a four-year college, but did not graduate,

18%

Where do students in the four districts fall off the pathway to a public college bachelor‘s degree?

11% 17% 16% 17%

32%

40%49% 55%

36%25%

26%24%

21% 18%8% 4%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Central Unified

Clovis Unified Fresno Unified

Sanger Unified

Attended UC or CSU, but did not graduate

Attended community college, butdid not transfer to UC or CSU

Finished high school, but did notattend public college

Did not finish high school

18

The pipeline to Fresno State University

19

Out of 1,0009th graders

Graduatefrom high

school

Enroll inFresno State

as afreshman

Enroll in Fresno City or

Reedley/Clovis community

college

Transfer toFresno

State

Earn a bachelor's

degree from Fresno State

within 6 years -

freshmen

Earn a bachelor's


within 4years -transfer

Earn a bachelor's


- total

Earna bachelor's

degree from a public college

in California

Central Unified 1000 829 117 300 64 66 43 109 167

Clovis Unified 1000 942 150 398 79 85 53 138 251

Fresno Unified 1000 855 176 333 75 99 50 149 213

Sanger Unified 1000 970 172 522 109 97 73 170 243

Other Fresno Countydistrict 1000 734 105 334 72 59 48 108 168

Outline

20


Setting goals:Key transition points determine outcomes

21

§ Last two years of high school– Graduation– College prep course completion

§ Transition tocollege– Attend or not– Four-year or community college

§ First two years of college– Persistence– Transfer

§ DATA, EVALUATION, FLEXIBILITY

High school graduation rates have increased

73% 73%

94%

74%

86%

94%94%

83%

97%

83%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Fresno Clovis Central Sanger Fresno County

All students

2010-11 2015-16

72%69%

94%

70%

86%90%92%

82%

97% 100%

82%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fresno Clovis Central Sanger FresnoCounty

Latinos

2010-11 2015-16

22

College readiness has also improved

23

22%

46%

26%

31%

25%27%

40% 40% 40% 41%

35%37%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Fresno Clovis Central Sanger FresnoCounty

California

Latinos

2010-11 2015-16

30%

60%

35%39%

36% 37%

44%

53%

43%

49%

42%45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Fresno Clovis Central Sanger Fresno County

California

All students

2010-11 2015-16

Note: Clovis rate was 63% in 2014-15

Percent of high school graduates completing the a-g courses

CSU graduation rates have been increasing:San Joaquin Valley

Improvement (pp)

6-ye

ar g

radu

atio

n ra

tes

(per

cent

)

CSUuniversitywideFresno

Stanislaus

Bakersfield

San Joaquin Valley - Freshman

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-102005-06 2009-10

0

-10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2006-07 2010-11 Improvement (pp)

4-ye

ar g

radu

atio

n ra

tes

(per

cent

)

San Joaquin Valley- Transfers

80CSUuniversitywide

Fresno

Stanislaus

Bakersfield

24

How do regions close the skills gaps?

25

§ Four overarching strategies:– Improve college readiness for graduating high school

students– Raise completion rates for students already enrolled in

college– Increase transfer from community colleges to four-year

colleges– Enroll more first-time freshmen

Colleges face many barriers to improvingoutcomes…

26

§ Capacity constraints– Physical vs. funded capacity– Geographical variation in access to four-year colleges

§ Overcrowding atCSU§ Low four-year graduation rates§ Low transfer rates at community colleges§ Persistent achievement gaps

… but recent policy and program changesholdpromise

27

§ Increased state funding§ Renewed focus on improving outcomes for all students§ Satellite campuses and more involvement from local

industry§ Efforts to improve student success at community colleges

– Basic Skills Initiative– Associate Degrees for Transfer– Guided Pathways

§ Our recommendations build upon these ongoing efforts

Policy recommendations

28

§ Increase capacity at four-year universities– Continue efforts to boost four-year graduation rates– Use satellite campuses to help serve local demand

§ Improve the transfer pathway– Focus on regional coordination and program alignment– Expand Associate Degrees for Transfer

Policy recommendations (cont.)

29

§ Develop regional (not local) college promise programs– Grant priority enrollment to four-year colleges– Create regional referral pools for CSU

§ Support regional data sharing andevaluation– Examples include Central Valley Higher Education

Consortium and Growing Inland Achievement– State should play a role in coordinating such efforts

Meeting California’s Need for College Graduates: The Fresno Perspective

Hans Johnson

Supported with funding from the College Futures Foundation and the Sutton FamilyFund

December 2017

Notes on the use of these slides

31

These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do notinclude full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, andinterpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact:

Hans Johnson, 415-291-4460, [email protected]

Thank you for your interest in this work.

mailto:[email protected]

The three regions are home to adiversepopulation of 18 million

8 7 57

146

37 3728

4948 47

1009080706050403020100

Los Angeles County Inland Empire San Joaquin Valley

Perc

ent

Other

African American Asian

White

Latino

32

9.8 million

2015 population4.2 million 4.0 million

Median household income is lowin the San Joaquin Valley

$49,551

33

$65,211

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Los Angeles County Inland Empire San Joaquin Valley State

Med

ian

inco

me

($)

The three regions are home to over half thestate’s graduating high school seniors

34

Regional share of state:

Population(2016)

High school diplomas (2015-16)

a-g graduates (2015-16)

Bachelor’s degrees awarded

(2015-16)

Los Angeles County 26% 25% 26% 24%

Inland Empire 11% 14% 12% 6%

San Joaquin Valley 11% 13% 10% 6%

Total – three regions 48% 52% 48% 36%

Every group in every region has seen strongimprovements in college readiness

35

37%

27%

33%

41%

32%31% 30%

35%

55%

43%39%

50%

69%71%

56%

69%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Los AngelesCounty

Inland Empire San JoaquinValley

State

Percent of high school graduates with UC/CSU required courses, 2005 2015

African American Latino White Asian

34%

Source: PPIC based on California Department of Education data

24% 26%

32%

22%18%17%

24%

45%

35% 33%

41%

63%

50%

41%

56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

L.A. County Inland Empire San JoaquinValley

State

Relatively few students make it to collegegraduation

823787

530 528

833

555

840

389

313 328

259

217 225 232

178151

500

400

300

200

100

-

600

700

800

900

1,000

9th graders High school graduates Enroll in a public college inCalifornia

Attend UC or CSU as freshmanor transfer

Earn a bachelor's degree fromUC or CSU

The education pipeline:9th grade to a bachelor's degree

State LA County San Joaquin Valley Inland Southern California

36

UC graduation rates vary across the regions

2008-09

6-ye

ar g

radu

atio

n ra

te(p

erce

nt)

UC universitywide

Inland Empire

Los Angeles

SanJoaquin

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

UC - Freshman

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

02004-05 2005-06 2010-11

4-ye

ar g

radu

atio

n ra

tes(

perc

ent)

UC - Transfers

100

90

Universitywide

Inland Empire

Los Angeles

San JoaquinValley

37

High school graduation rates are increasing

38

70.574.0 72.8 74.7

18.9 17.119.8

16.6

78.7

84.0 83.3 82.3

12.59.5 10.9 10.7

0

10

20

70

60

50

40

30

80

90

Cohort graduation and dropout rates, 2010 and 2015

Los Angeles County

2010 graduation rate

Inland Empire

2010 dropout rate

San Joaquin Valley

2015 graduation rate

State

2015 dropout rate

Source: PPIC basedon CaliforniaDepartmentof Educationdata

CCC transfers account for 50% of newenrollment in CSU and 27% in UC

46

46

44

51

67

53

57

51

44

49

0 20 40 60 80 100

Universitywide

SanBernardino

Bakersfield

Fresno

Stanislaus

DominguezHills

LongBeach

LosAngeles

Northridge

Pomona

CCC transfers as a share of new enrollment (percent)

CSU

27

39

22

5

33

0

Universitywide

Riverside

Merced

Los Angeles

20 40 60 80 100

CCC transfers as a share of newenrollment (percent)

UC

Large share of bachelor’s degrees are awardedto CCC transfer students

0

40

70

San Joaquin Valley CSU Stanislaus

CSU Bakersfield CSU FresnoUC Merced

Los Angeles CSU Dominguez Hills

CSU Los Angeles CSU Northridge

CSU Long Beach CSU Pomona

UC Los Angeles

Inland Empire CSU San Bernardino

UC Riverside

California CSU all campus

UC all campus

10 20 30 40 50 60

Share of bachelor’s degrees awarded to CCC transfers (percent)

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