meeting gas market intraday modulation needs - · pdf filemeeting gas market intraday...
TRANSCRIPT
Shippers meeting – 15.12.2011
Meeting gas market intraday modulation needs
1
Sandrine Cervoni-WeigertVincent Rousseau
Shippers meeting – 15.12.2011
Agenda
2
What is intraday modulation?
The intraday flexibility service
GRTgaz intraday flexibility outlook
1
23
Shippers meeting – 15.12.20113
What is intraday
modulation?
Shippers meeting – 15.12.2011
Intraday modulationas hourly consumption changes in the course of a day…
4
100
0
50
Intraday flexibility tool position
Consumptions
ConsumptionsGas day
0
100
200
-100
-200
Intradayflexibility
Entry/Exit flows
Entry / Exit Flows
Shippers meeting – 15.12.2011
… GRTgaz provides intraday flexibility
5
During the last years, a new kind of end-users has connected up to the network, with important intraday modulation needs.They are considered as highly modulated sites.
For highly modulated sites, GRTgaz has to :know the hourly delivered quantity forecasts to
prepare its network
contract external sources
Intraday flexibility can be provided by :Internal sources (useable linepack)External sources (storages, LNG terminals, other TSO)
Shippers meeting – 15.12.20116
The intraday
flexibility service
Shippers meeting – 15.12.2011
consumptionMedium daily consumption
The intraday flexibility service (1/2)Definition
7
Daily modulated volume
A specific service for the highly modulated sites : the intraday flexibility service
Who is highly modulated?All end-users with a daily
modulated volume above
0.8 GWh / day
This service has been contracted between end-users and GRTgaz since April 1st
2011
Today, 10 sites have contracted this new service
Shippers meeting – 15.12.2011
The intraday flexibility service (2/2)Operational management
8
20:30
16:30
Da
y D
-1D
ay D
HH:mm
HH:mm + NP
19:30
14:30
1
D-1 / 14:30 – 16:30The highly modulated site has to declare to GRTgaz its hourly operation program for D, D+1 and D+2
1
2
D-1 / 19:30 – 20:30GRTgaz confirms the program and provides the notice period of the subzone for the day D
2
3
D / HH:MMThe site can notify changes on its scheduled program to GRTgaz
3
4 D / HH:MM + notice periodThe site can apply its running regime
4
Shippers meeting – 15.12.20119
GRTgaz intraday
flexibility outlook
2012 - 2020on a day-ahead basis
Shippers meeting – 15.12.2011
Why a new outlook?
10
Number of gas-fired power plants increased in recent years, with a significant rise in the intraday modulation needs
In 2010, a first statistical study to determine :
Will there be enough intraday flexibility (internal and
external) in the coming years?
How much external flexibility is required to cover all the
intra-day modulation needs?
2011: Update of the first study as major hypothesis evolved
Shippers meeting – 15.12.2011
Principles
11
Demand of intraday modulation
Conventional market (residential
and industrial end-users)
Historical data analysis
Highly modulated sites
Growing fleet
Consumption profiles of each
highly modulated site
Useable linepack
assessed for a whole range of
consumption levels & entry/exit
flow distribution
input of GRTgaz investments
(650 km of DN1200 new pipelines
by 2020)
External sources technically
available :
Storage facilities, LNG Terminals
Supplyof intraday flexibility
For each month :matching between Demand and Supplyrelative contributions of internal and external sources
Shippers meeting – 15.12.2011
Co
nv.
mark
et
GT
*
Trends 2012 - 2020
12
Dem
and
of in
tra
da
y m
od
ula
tio
n
Su
pply
of in
tra
da
y fle
xib
ility
CC
GT
Inte
rna
l
fle
xib
ilit
yE
xte
rna
l
fle
xib
ilit
y
2012 - 2015
2016 - 2020
2012 - 2014
2015 - 2020
2012 - 2020
2012 - 2020
CH
P*
2012 - 2020
…
…
…
…
…
*GT : Gas Turbine*CHP : Combined Heat Power plant
2012 - 2020
Shippers meeting – 15.12.2011
Main findings
13
GRTgaz can meet practically all the intraday modulation needs for the highly modulated sites
Partial coverage (1 day/year) might
imply a slight reduction on the
hourly consumption profiles (15%).
External flexibility sources (storages, LNG terminals & TSOs), are necessary to meet these needs, mostly in winter
2012 - 2016 2017 - 2020
GRTgaz is able to cover all the intraday modulation needs for the highly modulated sites
Internal flexibility is sufficient to source at least all the existing sites and the current projects
Shippers meeting – 15.12.2011
GRTgaz meets identified intraday modulation needs and more…
14
We are convinced that the number of CCGTs
will continue to grow in the next few years
We are anticipating to adapt our network to
maintain our “CCGT friendly” position
We will prepare these changes together with
the stakeholders, through the concertation
process
Shippers meeting – 15.12.201115
More information on
“Meeting intraday modulation needs” publication
available on www.grtgaz.com
