meeting the challenges of energy demand karim barbir svp strategy, portfolio and risk management

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Meeting the Challenges of Energy Demand Karim Barbir SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management GDF SUEZ Energy North America November 22, 2010

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Meeting the Challenges of Energy Demand Karim Barbir SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management GDF SUEZ Energy North America November 22, 2010. 10. Who is GDF SUEZ ?. Overview 2009 Revenues: €79.9 billion; EBITDA: €14.0 billion; over 200,000 worldwide employees - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 2: Meeting the Challenges of Energy Demand Karim Barbir  SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management

Who is GDF SUEZ ?Overview

• 2009 Revenues: €79.9 billion; EBITDA: €14.0 billion; over 200,000 worldwide employees

• Electricity: World’s largest IPP• Natural Gas: #1 buyer and transporter in Europe• LNG: #1 importer in Europe and U.S.

North American Business• Integrated energy company; 2,000 employees• Electricity: ~8,000 MW in U.S., Canada & Mexico • 23 biomass, wind and hydro-powered assets in

US and Canada• Carbon light generation: 21% renewable; 67% gas• LNG: #1 importer in U.S., supply 20% of New

England’s annual gas demand• Retail: #2 U.S. electricity retailer servicing

commercial & industrial customers• Mexico: #1 private gas transmission; gas

distribution to nearly 400k customers2

Page 3: Meeting the Challenges of Energy Demand Karim Barbir  SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management

Drive towards coal retirements

Drive for efficiencyQ: Timing? form?

Economic Recovery

Renewables

Regulatory Environmen

t and Sustainabili

ty

Primary Energy Sources

Signs of recovery; gas and power demand recovering

Q: Catalyst for growth?

Higher capital costs

SubsidiesQ: Will incentives

continue?

What/when to invest for

clean, affordable and

reliable energy?

Shale gas advancement

Q: Price impact? Fuel substitute?

3

Challenges/Opportunities for North American Energy

Page 4: Meeting the Challenges of Energy Demand Karim Barbir  SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management

4

Economic Recovery Underway… And New Power Generation Will Be

Needed

* Solar, wood, biomass, geothermalSource: EIA

New build considerations

• Sustainability• Infrastructure

needs• Supply diversity• Price

competitiveness

Coal

Natural gas

Hydro

Oil products

Nuclear

31%

39%

6%

10%

10%

4%

Today’s Generation Mix (capacity)

Tomorrow

US Example

Wind; other renew-ables*

Page 5: Meeting the Challenges of Energy Demand Karim Barbir  SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management

New Generation Build – A Cost Perspective

Levelized Cost USD per MWh

5Source: GDF SUEZ Energy North America Analysis

Carbon Light Carbon FreeCarbon Intense

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

Combined Cycle Gas - $4/MMBtu

Combined Cycle Gas - $6/MMBtu

Combustion Turbine Gas -$6/MMBtu

Coal - SC Nuclear Wind Solar (PV)

Capital Cost Property Tax & Insurance Fixed O&M Fuel & Variable With $12/Ton CO2

Page 6: Meeting the Challenges of Energy Demand Karim Barbir  SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management

Renewables- Not Where We Consume Energy

6Source: NREL, Environment Canada

Vancouver

TorontoMontrealUnited States

Wind Speed Map

CanadaWind Speed Map

United StatesSolar Intensity

• Significant incremental transmission will be needed over the next 15 years to integrate renewable development into U.S. generation fleet,

• $50 billion to satisfy existing state-level RPS standards• As much as $130 billion to meet a 20% national renewable portfolio standard

• Texas PUC, as an example, approved nearly $5 billion for 18,456 MW of transmission investment to support renewable investments

Page 7: Meeting the Challenges of Energy Demand Karim Barbir  SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management

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Shale Gas - N. America’s Answer to a Domestic, Low Cost Primary Energy

Source?

Supply: may be as much as 100 years of U.S. consumption by some estimates New uses: gas-fired power generation to displace coal; petrochemicals return? residential and

transportation switching? Technology adoption: to Europe? Asia?

Source: EIA 2010

Page 8: Meeting the Challenges of Energy Demand Karim Barbir  SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management

In a World of Cheap Gas, There is an Expanded Role for Natural Gas Fired

Generation

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A fuel source for the ‘Utility of the

Future’

Carbon Light!Acceptable generation tradeoffs

Competitive Advantages

kg CO2 per MWh

Coal 1.0Natural Gas 0.4

• Flexible generation backup for wind and solar

• Electric vehicles

• Rapid deployment vs. nuclear

• Attractive opex/ capex profile vs. wind and nuclear

• High efficiency, off-the-shelf technology

Page 9: Meeting the Challenges of Energy Demand Karim Barbir  SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management

GDF Suez Energy North America- Meeting the Challenges Now

A diversified, sustainable portfolio profitable under a variety of economic scenarios

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Longer-term Optio

ns

Expand renewables footprint where

economically sensible; improve carbon position

of fleet

Maintain carbon-light fleet anchored by natural gas-fired generation

• Nuclear as a long-term option- clean, base load generation

• Concentrated solar, rooftop solar

• Renewables with PPAs

• Canada, US, Mexico

• CCGT• Hydro and

pumped storage

• Renewables firm support