meeting the renewable energy challenge · meeting the renewable energy challenge: ... ultimate...
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Dan E. ArvizuDirector, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Meeting the Renewable Energy Challenge:
What Will it Take to Reach Solar PV’sUltimate Potential
May 8, 2006
Presented at the 2006 IEEE 4th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion in Waikoloa, Hawaii
NREL/PR-100-40011
World Energy Supply andthe Role of Renewable Energy
Source: OECD/IEA, 2004
Electricity Outlook: 2001-2025Electricity Outlook: 2001-2025
Source: International Energy Outlook 2003, Table A9
Central/South America782 BKh
1,577 BKh
Middle East/Africa
1,000 BKh2,633 BKH
Japan/Australia1,221 BKh1,658 BKh
DevelopingAsia
3,103 BKh6,604 BKh
WesternEurope
2,540 BKh3,708 BKh
3.3%
1.4%
Eastern EuropeFormer Soviet Union1,768 BKh2,642 BKh
NorthAmerica
4,293 BKh6,628 BKh
1.8%
3.0%
1.6% 2.3%
3.7%
• Total annual average world electricity growth - 2.4% from 2001 to 2025• Growth rates in transitioning economies higher than developed economies• Natural gas and coal will be near-term fuels of choice for generation• Distributed generation and renewable energy will offer attractive options
74% increase
Magnitude of Challenge RequiresGlobal Action and a Change in Trajectory
Magnitude of Challenge RequiresGlobal Action and a Change in Trajectory
Magnitude of Challenge RequiresGlobal Action and a Change in Trajectory
Magnitude of Challenge RequiresGlobal Action and a Change in Trajectory
Getting There Involves…
Technologies
ReducingRisk
ReducingRisk
CapitalMobilization
CapitalMobilization
Policies Markets
PV is a $10B+ industry and a $1B venture capital marketPV is a $10B+ industry and a $1B venture capital market
Renewable Energy is Growing
Energy-Tech Investments as a Percent of Total U.S. Venture Capital
Renewable Energy Annual Growth Rates
Source: Nth Power LLC
Worldwide PV Shipments
Source: Paul Maycock, PV News, February/March 2005.
Distributed generation is the immediate market . . . peak power
California (2004)
Renewable Energy Electricity Generation Costs as Percentage of 1980 Levels:
Historical and Projected
Renewable Energy Electricity Generation Costs as Percentage of 1980 Levels:
Historical and Projected
Source: NREL 2005, 2002
CALIFORNIA
“BIG 3”Experience(It works . . .!)
Policy Stimulates marketsFederal, state, and local governments are the STEWARDS
Is Policy ALL We Need?
ModuleModuleInverterInverter
Installation,EngineeringInstallation,Engineering
Mounting,Electrical
Mounting,Electrical
ModuleModuleInverterInverter
Installation,EngineeringInstallation,Engineering
Mounting,Electrical
Mounting,Electrical
Focus on Module R&D . . .
PV Module Production Experience (or “Learning”) Curve
80%
PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)
1
90%
PV Module Production Experience (or “Learning”) Curve
1st Generation TechnologyCrystalline Silicon1st Generation TechnologyCrystalline Silicon
80%
PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)
1
90%Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers Improved processingImproved performance
Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers Improved processingImproved performance
PV Module Production Experience (or “Learning”) Curve
80%
•••
EPIA2030
EPIA2020
SEIA2020
PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
90%Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers Improved processingImproved performance
Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers Improved processingImproved performance
PV Module Production Experience (or “Learning”) Curve
80%
•••
EPIA2030
EPIA2030
SEIA2020
PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)
1
90%
70%
Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers (<100 µm)Improved processingImproved performance (>25%)
Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers (<100 µm)Improved processingImproved performance (>25%)
PV Module Production Experience (or “Learning”) Curve
Disruptive, advanced 1st & 2nd generation
Disruptive, advanced 1st & 2nd generation
80%
••
EPIA2030
EPIA2020
•
SEIA2020
PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
90%
70%
Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers (<100 µm)Improved processingImproved performance (>25%)
Lower feedstock pricesThinner wafers (<100 µm)Improved processingImproved performance (>25%)
PV Module Production Experience (or “Learning”) Curve
Disruptive, advanced 1st & 2nd generation
Disruptive, advanced 1st & 2nd generation
80%
••
EPIA2030
EPIA2020
•
SEIA2020
PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
80%
90%
PV Module Production Experience (or “Learning”) Curve
Disruptive I2nd Generation Thin films Concentrators Organics . . .
80%
90%
••
EPIA2030
EPIA2020
•
SEIA2020
PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
80%
90%
PV Module Production Experience (or “Learning”) Curve
Disruptive I 2nd Generation Thin films ConcentratorsOrganics . . .
80%
90%
••
EPIA2030
EPIA2020
•
SEIA2020
PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)1
90%
80%80%
Disruptive II3rd Gen and beyondQuantum dotsNanotechnologyMulti-multi-junctionsThermophotonics, voltaicsIntermediate band . . .
70%70%60%60%
PV Module Production Experience (or “Learning”) Curve
PV Module Price (2004$/Wp)
1
Efficiencies beyond theShockley-Queisser Limit(40% … 50% … beyond?)
Efficiencies beyond theShockley-Queisser Limit(40% … 50% … beyond?)
DOE is the STEWARD
R&DEnsures technology ownership, enables growth, new markets
•
EPIA2030
EPIA2020
•
SEIA2020
80%•
Industry-GuidedR&D
Industry-GuidedR&D
1st and 2nd Generation PVApplied Science & EngineeringFundamental Science SupportNational Laboratory and University Partners
Short Term
Short Term
Near t
o
Mid TermNea
r to
Mid Term
Industry-GuidedR&D
Industry-GuidedR&D
National
Laborat
ory-Led
Device
, Proce
ss,
and Reli
abilit
y
Innovatio
n
National
Laborat
ory-Led
Device
, Proce
ss,
and Reli
abilit
y
Innovatio
n
1st and 2nd Generation PVApplied Science & EngineeringFundamental Science SupportNational Laboratory and University Partners
2nd & Advanced 1st Generation
Applied Science & EngineeringFundamental Science
Industry and University Partners
Short Term
Short Term
Long TermLong Term
Near t
o
Mid TermNea
r to
Mid Term
Industry-GuidedR&D
Industry-GuidedR&D
National
Laborat
ory-Led
Device
, Proce
ss,
and Reli
abilit
y
Innovatio
n
National
Laborat
ory-Led
Device
, Proce
ss,
and Reli
abilit
y
Innovatio
n
University and National Laboratory
Discovery & Innovation
University and National Laboratory
Discovery & Innovation
3rd Generation PV primarilyFundamental ScienceAdvanced Applied Science
1st and 2nd Generation PVApplied Science & EngineeringFundamental Science SupportNational Laboratory and University Partners
2nd & Advanced 1st GenerationApplied Science & Engineering
Fundamental ScienceIndustry and University Partners
Short Term
Short Term
Cornerstone:Science & Technology Facility Cornerstone:Science & Technology Facility
Partnered and leveraged withSC Nanoscience CentersUniversity Centers of ExcellenceDiscovery & Innovation Institutesfor success
Partnered and leveraged withSC Nanoscience CentersUniversity Centers of ExcellenceDiscovery & Innovation Institutesfor success
Closing the key gaps:•Time
between concept & consumer usefrom discovery to industry accessdelays in re-doing previous
knowledge (data mining . . .)
Closing the key gaps:•Time
between concept & consumer usefrom discovery to industry accessdelays in re-doing previous
knowledge (data mining . . .)
Bridging fundamental and applied research
Bridging fundamental and applied research
Long TermLong Term
Near t
o
Mid TermNea
r to
Mid Term
Industry-GuidedR&D
Industry-GuidedR&D
National
Laborat
ory-Led
Device
, Proce
ss,
and Reli
abilit
y
Innovatio
n
National
Laborat
ory-Led
Device
, Proce
ss,
and Reli
abilit
y
Innovatio
n
University and National Laboratory
Discovery & Innovation
University and National Laboratory
Discovery & Innovation
Short Term
Short Term
Closing the key gaps:• Performance
between theory & practicebetween laboratory & commercialbetween discrete & integrated
components
Closing the key gaps:• Performance
between theory & practicebetween laboratory & commercialbetween discrete & integrated
components
PowerLight PowerGuard® Rooftop System, 536 kW, Toyota Motor Corp., Torrance, CAPowerLight PowerGuard® Rooftop System, 536 kW, Toyota Motor Corp., Torrance, CA
Shell Solar at Semitropic Water Storage Dist.980 kW, single-axis tracking, Wasco, CA Shell Solar at Semitropic Water Storage Dist.980 kW, single-axis tracking, Wasco, CA
WorldWater & Power, Irrigation System267 kW, Seley Ranches, CAWorldWater & Power, Irrigation System267 kW, Seley Ranches, CA
Sun Power & Geothermal Energy Co. Solar-Wastewater Plant, 622 kW, Oroville,CA
Sun Power & Geothermal Energy Co. Solar-Wastewater Plant, 622 kW, Oroville,CA
Shell Solar, “Sunspot Bürstadt”, rooftop system,Grid tied, 5MW, Bürstadt, GermanyShell Solar, “Sunspot Bürstadt”, rooftop system,Grid tied, 5MW, Bürstadt, Germany
…toward our destination
RidgeVineyardsPV Rooftop65 kW, CA
RidgeVineyardsPV Rooftop65 kW, CA
RWE Schott Stillwell Avenue SubwayStation, PV Canopy Roof, 250,000 kWh/yr, Brooklyn, NY
RWE Schott Stillwell Avenue SubwayStation, PV Canopy Roof, 250,000 kWh/yr, Brooklyn, NY
WorldWater & Power and Alternity PowerAtlantic County Wastewater TreatmentPlant, 8 MW solar-wind hybrid, NJ
WorldWater & Power and Alternity PowerAtlantic County Wastewater TreatmentPlant, 8 MW solar-wind hybrid, NJ
Powerlight, Bavarian community,6.3 MW, single-axis tracking, Mühlhausen, Germany
Powerlight, Bavarian community,6.3 MW, single-axis tracking, Mühlhausen, Germany
The ultimate test of the human conscience may be the willingness to do something today for future generations whose words of thanks will not be heard.
-Senator Gaylord Nelson, founder of Earth Day
The U.S. Department of Energy’sNational Renewable Energy Laboratorywww.nrel.gov
The U.S. Department of Energy’sNational Renewable Energy Laboratorywww.nrel.gov
Golden, ColoradoGolden, Colorado