Petri VasaraDr.Tech., PrincipalPöyry Management Consulting Oy

Megapolis 2025

Sep

tem

ber

25,

2010

GLOBAL CHANGES IN CITIESFEEDING HUNGRY CREATURES

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System ShocksMegacities of the Aging and the Growing

Aging populations means more smileys like this.

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DefinitionSherlock Holmes and Oscar Wilde on Cities

”When you remove the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth".

”...the unspeakable in pursuit of the uneatable...".

Holmes & Wilde CITY TRENDWhen you remove the eatable and unspeakable, whateverremains, however improbable, will be a popular featureof some city.

The cities need food and energy = kJ

The amount of information communicated inside cities is

expandingradically = GB

The Riddle of the Sphinx2010

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A discontinuity

ContrastsPyramids and Details

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Turning the hourglassupside down: populationage

Resolution - sharpdetails and biggerpicture: city sizeand related problems

ContrastsCities: Bathtub problems

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Population of near-conurbation

Mexico CityTop-20 Chinese cities

Linked”villages”

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THE CITY AS A HUNGRY LIVING ORGANISM......feeding the large and the small

1. A city needs to power itself with food.

3. A city needs to process its food.

• A city produces output.

• A city needs additional input supplements.

Contrasts: Hungry City Food (And Drink)Biomass, Water

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EARLY FAILURE IN MEGACITY BIOMASS AND WATER CONTROL

“Angkor Wat, the spectacular 12th century Khmer Temple in Cambodia, was the center of an enormous, low-density urban complex whose size (1000 square km) rivaled large modern day cities.

It looks like the earlier theory that the large reservoirs were primarily for irrigation is correct.. It is possible that the deforestation of the area for conversion to agriculture, combined with the re-routed natural water channels, may have led to a large-scale ecological disaster.”

Contrasts: Hungry City Digesting Food (And Drink)Processes: Network, Not Size

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For vibrant economy (=digestion), transportation networks matter more than city size

When it comes to growing a vibrant economy in a city or town, it turns out that size doesn’t matter — at least as much as transportation networks do. Well-connected communities with good transportation systems, like the Arkansas town where Walmart is headquartered, can compete with major metropolises, if they have a number of strong connections to other cities. according to a recent study.Smart Planet/Christina HernandezZachary Neal, Michigan State University, City and Community.

“In the past, the strategy had been attracting new residents and growing the tax base.

Potentially, a better strategy will be looking for opportunities to connect with both in the regional area and farther away. That may be at least one approach for struggling cities.”

Contrasts: Hungry City OutputVirtual Colonises the Physical and Vice Versa

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VIRTUAL COLONISES PHYSICAL “Cyberspace, not so long ago, was a specific elsewhere, one we visited periodically, peering into it from the familiar physical world. Now cyberspace has everted. Turned itself inside out. Colonized the physical.”- William Gibson (2010)

PHYSICAL KNOCKS ON VIRTUAL’S DOOR“A significant development was the construction of a network of sewers to collect waste water, which began from the Indus Valley. In some cities, including Istanbul (Constantinople), networked ancient sewer systems continue to function today as collection systems for those cities' modernized sewer systems. Instead of flowing to a river or the sea, the pipes have been re-routed to modern sewer treatment facilities.”- Wikipedia

Contrasts: Hungry City Additional Input SupplementsLight and Darkness

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MAKING LIGHTING MORE EFFICIENT COULD INCREASE ENERGY USE, NOT DECREASE ITEconomist, Aug 26th 2010 In 1700 a typical Briton consumed 580 lumen-hours in the course of a year, from candles, wood and oil. Today, burning electric lights, he uses about 46 megalumen-hours—almost 100,000 times as much.

Better technology has stimulated demand, resulting in more energy being purchased for conversion into light. Journal of Physics D: Applied Physics; Jeff Tsao of Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico and his colleagues.

“They predict that the introduction of solid-state lighting could increase the consumption of light by a factor of ten within two decades.”

M.C.Escher: Night and Day

ContrastsCities: Bathtub solutions – knitting together the ends

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Population of near-conurbation

Mexico CityTop-20 Chinese cities

Linked”villages”

kJ

EUR

lumen

kgl

GB

”The Urban Unit Dance”

3.Biomass (kg) inhabitscities4.Biomass needs biomass(kg) and water (kg/l)5.Biomass needs light (lumen)6.Biomass needs information (GB)7.Kg, l. lumen and GB need energy (kJ)8.Everything needs financial resources (EUR)9.EUR is hopefully not the only reason for biomass toinhabit cities

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Bathtub With A Resource WorldAvoiding Bathtub Homicide with Good Planning, Including Engineering

It is about resource-efficiency, be it large or small citiesA focus on resources is emerging: a scarcity of energy, water, clean air, land, metals and fibre is in different combinations having an impact on the most varied human endeavour sectors

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For further information please contact:

Petri Vasara

Dr.Tech., PrincipalPöyry Management Consulting Oy

Tel. +358 40 500 9553

E-mail petri.vasara@poyry.com

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