memorandum center for immigration studies august 2009 · 2017. 7. 2. · august 2009 worse than it...

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Center for Immigration StudiesMemorandum August 2009

Worse Than It SeemsBroader Measure of Unemployment Shows Bleak Picture

By Karen Jensenius and Steven A. Camarota

Steven A. Camarota is the Director of Research and Karen Jensenius is a demographer at the Center for Immigration Studies.

While the current high rate of official unemployment is well known, it only includes those who have looked for work in the last four weeks. There is a broader measure of employment, referred to by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as U-6, which includes the unemployed and people who would like to work, but who have not looked for a job recently, as well as those involuntarily working part-time. This report examines the U-6 measure and finds that things are much worse than the official unemployment numbers imply. The situation is particularly bad for minorities, the young, and less-educated Americans. These are the workers who face the most competition from immigrants ─ legal and illegal. (All figures in this report are seasonally unadjusted and are from June 2009.)

Among the findings:

• As of June 2009, the overall unemployment rate for native-born Americans is 9.7 percent, but the broader U-6 measure shows it as 16.3 percent. There are 12.7 million unemployed natives, but using the U-6 measure it is 21.7 million.

• The unemployment rate for native-born Americans with less than a high school education is 20.8 percent. Their U-6 measure is 33.2 percent.

• The unemployment rate for young native-born Americans (18-29) who have only a high school education is 18.5 percent. Their U-6 measure is 30.3 percent.

• The unemployment rate for native-born blacks with less than a high school education is 27.5 percent. Their U-6 measure is 42 percent.

• The unemployment rate for young native-born blacks (18-29) with only a high school education is 25.8 percent. Their U-6 measure is 37.4 percent.

• The unemployment rate for native-born Hispanics with less than a high school education is 22.6 percent. Their U-6 measure is 36.5 percent.

• The unemployment rate for young native-born Hispanics (18-29) with only a high school degree is 21.3 percent. Their U-6 measure is 32.7 percent.

• The overall unemployment rate for immigrants (legal and illegal) is 9.7 percent, but their U-6 measure is 19.7 percent, which is significantly higher than the rate for natives.

• The unemployment rate for immigrants with less than high school education is 12.8 percent. Their U-6 measure is 27.1 percent. The unemployment rate for young immigrants (18-29) with only a high school education is 9.6 percent. Their U-6 measure is 24.2 percent.

1522 K Street, NW, Suite 820 • Washington, DC 20005-1202 • (202) 466-8185 • [email protected] • www.cis.orgSupport the Center through the Combined Federal Campaign by designating # 10298 on the campaign pledge card.

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Center for Immigration Studies

Discussion

time, but who want to work full-time. In order to get a broader or more comprehensive measure of unemployment and underemployment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) developed the U-6 measure (the official unemployment rate

comprehensive measure of unemployment includes those who are officially unemployed, those who are involuntarily working part-time, and those “marginally” attached to the labor market. People who are marginally attached indicate that they would like to work but are not actively looking for a job because economic conditions and their own experience indicate that it is futile. Table 2 reports the percentage and number employed, unemployment, and, unlike Table 1, reports those who are not in the labor force. People not in the labor force are not working nor have they looked for work in the last four weeks. As already indicated, some of those not in the labor force are included in the U-6 measure.

Table 1 shows that over 30 percent of natives with less than a high school education are unemployed or

Moreover, Table 1 shows that the situation is even worse for young and less-educated black and Hispanic natives. Among black native-born high school dropouts, the U-6 unemployment rate is 42 percent; among young (18-29) black natives

the number of those discouraged from looking for work among less-educated Americans is a clear indication that there

natives are relevant to the immigration debate because they are the individuals most in competition with immigrants ─legal and illegal.

Table 1 shows there are currently 3.1 million natives with less than a high school degree who are unemployed,

high school education that fall into this U-6 category. If we include those with only a high school education who are over age 29 there are another 4.5 million native-born Americans who fall into the U-6 category. It would seem that there are a very large number of potential workers with little education.

Another way to think about the number of potential workers is to consider those not in the labor force, not just

force. If we include all those not in the labor force and all those who are unemployed, there are over 25.2 million adult natives (18 to 65) with a high school education or less who are currently not working.1native-born teenagers (16-17) unemployed or not working. Of course, a significant share of those not in the labor force do not wish to work or are unemployable for some reason. But if only one-fourth of these less-educated individuals 18 to 65 became employed, coupled with one-fifth of native-born teenagers, it would equal the entire illegal immigrant workforce, thought to be seven to eight million, though that number has probably declined since hitting a peak in 2007.

proof that immigration has caused this situation. Clearly the severity of current recession is part of the problem. But unemployment, underemployment, and declining rates of labor force participation have been a problem for less-educated natives long before this recession began. What we can say from the data is that those types of workers most in competition

educated workers in the country. If the United States were to enforce immigration laws and encourage illegal immigrants to return to their home countries over time, we have an adequate supply of less-educated natives to replace these workers.

natives unsatisfied with their employment status (represented by U-6) raises the question of why new foreign workers are needed. In 2008, an average of 112,000 new foreign workers were authorized each month to work in the United States.

who are authorized to work. But it does not include several hundred thousand illegal immigrants who are already in the country when they change their status and are given work authorization and are therefore technically not new arrivals. However, they could be counted as new work authorizations.2 Although some foreign workers are in the high-tech sector,

Survey,” for example, indicates that one-third of adult l ega l immigrants (new green card holders) had not completed high school. Given the deterioration in the economies of many of the primary immigrant-sending counties, it seems likely that legal immigration to the United States will remain high, absent a change in U.S. policy.

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MethodologyThe data for Tables 1 and 2 come from the public-use file of the June 2009 Current Population Survey (CPS), which is collected monthly by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The CPS includes about 131,000 respondents, 70,000 of whom are in the labor force. It does not include those in institutions like prisons or nursing homes. The CPS is the nation’s primary source for unemployment and other labor force statistics. Like all government surveys, the data are weighted to reflect the actual size and demographic makeup of the U.S. population.

The government publishes employment statistics that are both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted from the survey. The figures in this analysis are all seasonally unadjusted. Unadjusted figures are computationally simpler and easy for other researchers to replicate. In general, BLS does not provide separate estimates for the foreign-born (immigrants) and native-born, however all those in the CPS are asked if they are immigrants and we have divided the population based on this question. The Census Bureau defines the foreign-born as persons who are not U.S. citizens at birth, which includes naturalized citizens, legal immigrants who are not citizens (green card holders), temporary visitors and workers, and illegal immigrants. All figures for the total U.S. population at the top of Tables 1 and 2 match those from the BLS.

The U-6 measure divides the sum of the unemployed population, involuntary part-time workers, and marginally attached people (discouraged and other) by the civilian labor force (employed and unemployed) plus marginally attached workers. The column headings in Table 1 show this calculation. An unemployed worker is someone who does not currently hold a job, but is available to work and has looked for a job in the previous four weeks. Marginally attached workers indicate that they want and are available for a job, and they have looked for work in the past 12 months. However, they are not considered unemployed because they have not searched for a job in the previous four weeks.3 Involuntary part-time workers are those individuals who report that they are working part-time for economic reasons. They want and are available for full-time work, but must instead settle for part-time hours.4 Because the total U-6 measure includes the unemployed, those working involuntarily part-time, and those marginally attached to the labor market (discouraged), it provides the broadest possible measure of problems in the U.S. work force.

End Notes1 This figure does not include those over age 65 who are unemployed. The left side of Table 2 shows that there are 6.2 million natives 18 and older with no more than a high school degree who are unemployed. The right side of Table 2 shows there are 19.1 million natives with no more than a high school degree (ages 18 to 65) who are not in the labor force. If we add these two numbers together we get 25.3 million. But, this number would include a smaller number of people who are over age 65 who are unemployed. If we confine the analysis to only those 18 to 65, then there are 25.2 million native-born Americans with no more than a high school degree who are not working. This is the number reported in the text.

2 See Table 10 in “Trends in Immigrant and Native Employment” from the Center for Immigration Studies which can be found at: www.cis.org/FirstQuarter2009Unemployment.

3 Marginally attached workers indicate that they looked for work in the last 12 months, but not in the prior four weeks. The marginally attached are comprised of two groups, both of which are included in U-6. One group is considered “discouraged.” (The variable in the CPS used to determine this population is pemlr). Discouraged workers provide a reason related to the market conditions for why they are not currently looking for a job. The second group of marginally attached indicate that they are conditionally interested in finding work and are referred to as “other marginally attached workers.” (The variable in the CPS used to determine this population is prdisc). These individuals provide reasons such as family responsibilities, school attendance, illness, and transportation problems for why they have not searched for work in the previous four weeks.

4 Involuntary part-time workers respond that they are working part-time (1 to 34 hours a week) for economic reasons, and it includes those who usually work full-time and those who usually work part-time. They share in common a desire to work full-time.

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Table 1. U-6 Measure for Immigrants and Native-Born Americans, June 2009 (thousands)

All Persons (16+)Teens (16-17)<HS (18+)HS Only (18+) HS Only (18-29)Some College (18+)College or More (18+)

All Natives (16+)Teens (16-17)<HS (18+)HS only (18+) HS only (18-29)Some College (18+)College or More (18+)

Black Natives (16+)Teens (16-17)<HS (18+)HS only (18+) HS only (18-29)Some College (18+)College or More (18+)

Hispanic Natives (16+)5

Teens (16-17)<HS (18+)HS only (18+) HS only (18-29)Some College (18+)College or More (18+)

All Immigrants (16+)6


Hisp. Immigrants (16+)5


Employed

140,826 1,940

13,011 39,836 9,152

40,831 45,208

119,039 1,878 7,171

34,569 7,979

36,811 38,609

12,777 111

1,145 4,506 1,167 4,284 2,731

9,012 193

1,166 2,927 1,041 3,059 1,668

21,787 62

5,840 5,266 1,173 4,020 6,599

10,673 37

4,903 2,960

800 1,623 1,150

Source: Center for Immigration Studies analysis of public-use June 2009 Current Population Survey. All figures are seasonally unadjusted and are for non-institutionalized civilians, which does not include those in institutions such as prisons and nursing homes. 1 Unemployed means not working, but looking for work. 2 Discouraged workers are not in the labor force; they neither have jobs nor have looked for one in the previous four weeks because they do not think there are any suitable for them. However, they are available for work and have looked for a job in the last 12 months. 3

into the official definition of discouraged workers, but like discouraged workers these individuals have looked in the last 12 months.4

5 Hispanics can be of any race and are excluded from other categories. 6

PercentUnemployed

9.732.117.410.817.59.25.2

9.731.520.811.118.59.24.8

15.856.527.516.325.813.98.6

13.336.522.614.021.310.35.7

9.746.612.89.19.69.37.1

11.144.813.08.79.0

10.09.0

Unemployed1

15,095 917

2,735 4,846 1,938 4,133 2,464

12,746 863

1,881 4,322 1,814 3,719 1,962

2,399 144 435 875 405 689 256

1,381 111 341 476 281 353 100

2,348 54

854 524 125 414 502

1,337 30

731 281 79

181 114

Marginally Attached:

Discouraged2

794 47

211 281 120 169 86

652 44

151 233 103 147 77

189 11 42 69 28 49 18

90 1

41 29 21 16 4

141 3

59 48 17 22 9

76 -

43 23 9 9 1

Marginally Attached:

Other3

1,383 121 264 440 188 368 189

1,204 120 233 380 166 323 148

279 28 63 76 46 84 28

144 15 54 30 26 39 6

178 2

31 60 22 45 40

84 2

26 32 12 23 1

Part-Time:Economic

Reasons4

9,301 173

1,764 3,194 1,128 2,658 1,511

7,140 163 868

2,585 970

2,285 1,237

902 15

167 397 136 270 53

668 27

148 261 120 157 74

2,161 8

896 610 159 372 275

1,526 5

791 446 124 207 77

U-6Population (2+4+5+6)

26,573 1,258 4,974 8,761 3,374 7,328 4,250

21,742 1,190 3,133 7,520 3,053 6,474 3,424

3,769 198 707

1,417 615

1,092 355

2,283 154 584 796 448 565 184

4,828 67

1,840 1,242

323 853 826

3,023 37

1,591 782 224 420 193

U-6 Percent 7/(1+2+4+5)

16.841.6 30.7 19.3 29.6 16.1 8.9

16.3 41.0 33.2 19.0 30.3 15.8 8.4

24.1 67.3 42.0 25.6 37.4 21.4 11.7

21.5 48.1 36.5 23.032.716.310.3

19.7 55.4 27.1 21.1 24.2 19.0 11.6

24.8 53.6 27.9 23.7 24.9 22.9 15.2

Column 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

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Table 2. Employment of Immigrants and Native-Born Americans, June 2009 (thousands)

All Persons (16+)Teens (16-17)<HS (18+)HS Only (18+) HS Only (18-29)Some College (18+)College or More (18+)

All Natives (16+)Teens (16-17)<HS (18+)HS only (18+) HS only (18-29)Some College (18+)College or More (18+)

Black Natives (16+)Teens (16-17)<HS (18+)HS only (18+) HS only (18-29)Some College (18+)College or More (18+)

Hispanic Natives (16+)4


All Immigrants (16+)5




Employed

140,826 1,940

13,011 39,836 9,152

40,831 45,208

119,039 1,878 7,171

34,569 7,979

36,811 38,609

12,777 111

1,145 4,506 1,167 4,284 2,731

9,012 193

1,166 2,927 1,041 3,059 1,668

21,787 62

5,840 5,266 1,173 4,020 6,599

10,673 37

4,903 2,960

800 1,623 1,150

Source: Center for Immigration Studies analysis of public-use June 2009 Current Population Survey. All figures are seasonally unadjusted and are for non-institutionalized civilians, which does not include those in institutions such as prisons and nursing homes. 1 Persons who are not working nor looking for work. 2 Total number of people in age group. 3 4 Hispanics can be of any race and are excluded from other categories. 5

PercentUnemployed

9.7 32.1 17.4 10.8 17.5 9.2 5.2

9.7 31.5 20.8 11.1 18.5 9.2 4.8

15.8 56.5 27.5 16.3 25.8 13.9 8.6

13.3 36.5 22.6 14.0 21.3 10.3 5.7

9.7 46.6 12.8 9.1 9.6 9.3 7.1

11.1 44.8 13.0 8.7 9.0

10.0 9.0

Unemployed

15,095 917

2,735 4,846 1,938 4,133 2,464

12,746 863

1,881 4,322 1,814 3,719 1,962

2,399 144 435 875 405 689 256

1,381 111 341 476 281 353 100

2,348 54

854 524 125 414 502

1,337 30

731 281 79

181 114

ALL Persons (18-65) Teens (16-17) <HS (18-65) HS Only (18-65) HS Only (18-29) Some College (18-65) College or More (18-65)

All Natives (18-65) Teens (16-17) <HS (18-65) HS Only (18-65) HS Only (18-29) Some College (18-65) College or More (18-65)

Black Natives (18-65) Teens (16-17) <HS (18-65) HS Only (18-65) HS Only (18-29) Some College (18-65) College or More (18-65)

Hispanic Natives (18-65)4

Teens (16-17) <HS (18-65) HS Only (18-65) HS Only (18-29) Some College (18-65) College or More (18-65)

All Foreign-Born (18-65)5

Teens (16-17) <HS (18-65) HS Only (18-65) HS Only (18-29) Some College (18-65) College or More (18-65)



Not in Labor Force (18-65)1

43,748 6,092 9,274

14,348 3,549

12,049 8,077

36,576 5,665 6,676

12,420 3,025

10,841 6,639

5,754 1,047 1,529 2,101

657 1,582

542

3,427 927

1,117 1,125

533 920 265

7,173 428

2,597 1,929

524 1,208 1,439

3,689 256

1,995 959 298 424 311

Total2

191,412 8,949

24,443 57,293 14,639 55,798 53,878

160,821 8,406

15,302 49,706 12,818 50,232 45,581

20,328 1,302 3,029 7,383 2,229 6,473 3,443

13,346 1,231 2,592 4,467 1,855 4,291 1,996

30,592 544

9,140 7,588 1,822 5,565 8,299

15,424 323

7,535 4,170 1,177 2,202 1,517

Employed

133,851 1,940

12,492 38,208 9,152

39,702 43,449

112,658 1,878 6,777

33,056 7,979

35,754 37,071

12,343 111

1,068 4,416 1,167 4,211 2,648

8,652 193

1,136 2,866 1,041 3,018 1,632

21,194 62

5,715 5,152 1,173 3,948 6,379

10,466 37

4,832 2,938

800 1,601 1,095

EmploymentRate3

69.9 21.7 51.1 66.7 62.5 71.2 80.6

70.1 22.3 44.3 66.5 62.2 71.2 81.3

60.7 8.5

35.3 59.8 52.4 65.1 76.9

64.8 15.7 43.8 64.2 56.1 70.3 81.8

69.3 11.4 62.5 67.9 64.4 70.9 76.9

67.9 11.5 64.1 70.5 68.0 72.7 72.2

memorandum center for immigration studies august 2009 · 2017. 7. 2. · august 2009 worse than it...

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