mercury national polling assessment - october 11 2012
DESCRIPTION
Dear Clients and friends of Mercury: As you know, polling has always been core to the DNA of our company, an original capability dating back to 1999 which remains a critical part of our daily strategic work. Since the founding of the firm, there has been an explosion of polling data and polling firms, particularly during election years. To that end, we’ve decided to have our polling shop analyze the public polling data and provide you with a brief summary of what we’re seeing in the public data that is credible, well-researched, interesting and timely. For the balance of this election season, we will provide this update on a bi-weekly basis. Post-election, we will continue with presentations monthly unless events warrant more frequent updates.TRANSCRIPT
National Polling AssessmentOctober 11 2012
Right Direction/Wrong Track
38%38%Right DirectionRight Direction
Unemployment
7.8%7.8%September 2012September 2012
Obama Job Approval
50%50%ApproveApprove
Obama Favorability
50%50%FavorableFavorable
Romney Favorability
45%45%FavorableFavorable
2012 Ballot
45% 45% -- 49%49%
Generic Ballot
46% 46% -- 45%45%
Key Numbers at a Glance
Mercury. 2
Intrade: Obama Re-elect
61.9%61.9%October 11October 11thth, 2012, 2012
1st Debate
67%67%Romney WonRomney Won
(Key Numbers at a Glance from September 28, 2012 report in parenthesis )
(Sept 28: 42%) (August 2012: 8.1%) (Sept 28: 50%)
(Sept 28: 53%) (Sept 28: 48%)
(Sept 28: 48% - 43%)(Sept 28: 78.1%)
(Sept 28: 47% - 45%)
38%38%Right DirectionRight Direction
Right Direction/Wrong Track:
Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Optimism about the economy and country is improving…
Mercury. 3
ABC/Washington Post poll, conducted October 4-7, 2012 n=845 RVs, MoE = ± 4%
7.8%7.8%September 2012September 2012
Unemployment:
…as unemployment dips below the 8% barrier…
Mercury. 4
Unemployment trend from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
57%57%Is RecoveringIs Recovering
Economy Recovering?
…and a solid majority believe the economy is recovering.
Mercury. 5
Do you think the U.S. economy is recovering or is not recovering?(NBC/WSJ poll, conducted 9/26-30/12, n=1,000 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%)
50%50%ApproveApprove
Obama Job ApprovalHow would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president: Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?
Obama’s job approval continues to hover at 50%...
Mercury. 6
GWU/Politico Battleground poll, conducted October 1-4, 2012 n=1,000 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
50%50%FavorableFavorable
(net +5)(net +5)
Obama FavorableIs your overall opinion of Barack Obama very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
…though his personal favorability is higher than Romney’s…
Mercury. 7
Pew Research Center poll, conducted October 4-7, 2012 n=1,112 LVs, MoE = ± 3.4%
45%45%FavorableFavorable
(net -2)(net -2)
Romney Favorable
…though Romney has begun to close the gap.
Mercury. 8
Pew Research Center poll, conducted October 4-7, 2012 n=1,112 LVs, MoE = ± 3.4%
Is your overall opinion of Mitt Romney very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
1st Debate
In addition, Romney’s victory in the first debate…
Mercury. 9
Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?(CNN poll, conducted 10/3/12, n=430 adult debate watchers, MoE = ± 4.5%)
Which candidate do you think did the best job – or won – tonight’s debate? (CBS/GfK poll, conducted 10/3/12, n=523 uncommitted voters, MoE = ±4.0%)
2012 BallotIf the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and Republicans Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan?
45%45% -- 49%49%
…has produced a small Romney lead a month out...
Mercury.10
Pew Research Center poll, conducted October 4-7, 2012 n=1,112 LVs, MoE = ± 3.4%
RCP Average
… as the RCP average favors Romney for the 1st time since July...
Mercury.11
46%46% -- 47%47%
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Recent Polls
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Swing State PollingSwing State Polling
Nevada (5 EVs)
Obama 47, Romney 45(Suffolk/KSNV, 10/6-9,
n=500 LV)
Colorado (9 EVs)
Obama 46, Romney 50(ARG, 10/5-8,
n=600 LV)
Iowa (6 EVs)
Obama 49, Romney 47(Rasmussen, 10/7, n=500 LV)
Missouri (10 EVs)
Obama 45, Romney 51(PPP, 10/1-3,
n=700 LV)
Ohio (18 EVs)
Obama 51, Romney 45(NBC/WSJ/Marist, 10/7-9,
n=994 LV)
New Hampshire(4 EVs)
Obama 47, Romney 41(WMUR/UNH, 9/30-10/6,
n=559 LV)
Virginia (13 EVs)
Obama 47, Romney 48(NBC/WSJ/Marist, 10/7-9,
n=981 LV)
Florida (29 EVs)
Obama 48, Romney 47(NBC/WSJ/Marist, 10/7-9,
n=988 LV)
…and Romney has closed the gap in several swing states.
Mercury.12
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Obama 49, Romney 47(PPP, 10/4-6,
n=979 LV)
Ohio(18 EVs)
Polls in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida have tightened…
Mercury.13
48%48% -- 46%46%
(RCP Average)(RCP Average)Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Recent Polls - OH
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
44%44%FavorableFavorable
(net -6)(net -6)
Romney Favorable
51%51%FavorableFavorable
(net +7)(net +7)
ObamaFavorable
49%49%ApproveApprove
(net +3)(net +3)
ObamaJob Approval
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted Oct. 7-9, 2012 n=994 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
Virginia(15 EVs)
…though the key indicators are still in Obama’s favor…
Mercury.14
48%48% -- 48%48%
(RCP Average)(RCP Average)Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Recent Polls - VA
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
49%49%FavorableFavorable
(net +5)(net +5)
Romney Favorable
51%51%FavorableFavorable
(net +6)(net +6)
ObamaFavorable
48%48%ApproveApprove
(net +1)(net +1)
ObamaJob Approval
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted Oct. 7-9, 2012 n=981 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
Florida(28 EVs)
…but the door is open for Romney to build on his momentum.
Mercury.15
48%48% -- 48%48%
(RCP Average)(RCP Average)Source: RealClearPolitics.com
Recent Polls - FL
Source: RealClearPolitics.com
49%49%FavorableFavorable
(net +5)(net +5)
Romney Favorable
52%52%FavorableFavorable
(net +9)(net +9)
ObamaFavorable
48%48%ApproveApprove
(net +2)(net +2)
ObamaJob Approval
NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, conducted Oct. 7-9, 2012 n=988 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
Intrade: Obama Re-Election
The recent turnaround is well-reflected by Intrade’s markets…
Mercury.16
61.9%61.9%October 11October 11
Congressional BallotIf the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?
46%46% -- 45%45%
…though downballot Democrats still enjoy a small edge…
Mercury.17
GWU/Politico Battleground poll, conducted October 1-4, 2012 n=1,000 LVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
State of the SenateState of the Senate
Likely DEM Lean DEM Toss-Up Lean GOP Likely GOPHawaii(Open)
Connecticut(Open)
Massachusetts(Brown)
Arizona(Open)
Nebraska(Open)
Maine(Open)
Florida(Nelson)
Montana (Tester)
Indiana(Open)
Michigan(Stabenow)
Missouri (McCaskill)
Nevada(Heller)
New Mexico(Open)
Ohio(Brown)
North Dakota(Open)
Virginia(Open)
Wisconsin(Open)
…as the Senate math gets harder for Republicans…
Mercury.18
Latest Senate PollingLatest Senate Polling
Nevada:
Heller (R): 47%Berkley (D): 44%
(PPP, 10/8-10, n=594 LV)
Montana:
Tester (D): 48%Rehberg (R): 45%
(Mason-Dixon, 9/17-19, n=625 LV)
Wisconsin:
Baldwin (D): 49%Thomspon (R): 46%
(PPP, 10/4-6, n=979 LV)
Missouri:
McCaskill (D): 51%Akin (R): 45%
(Rasmussen, 9/2, n=500 LV)
Virginia:
Kaine (D): 47%Allen (R): 46%
(NBC/WSJ/Marist, 10/7-9, n=981 LV)
Massachusetts:
Brown (R): 48%Warren (D): 45%
(WBUR/MassINC, 10/5-7, n=501 LV)
… with difficulties in WI, VA, FL, MO, and even North Dakota.
Mercury.19
Connecticut:
Murphy (D): 51%McMahon (R): 46%
(Rasmussen, 10/7, n=500 LV)
Florida:
Nelson (D): 52%Mack (R): 39%
(NBC/WSJ/Marist, 10/7-9, n=988 LV)
North Dakota:
Heitkamp (D): 47%Berg (R): 47%
(Mason-Dixon, 10/3-5, n=625 LV)
Mercury.20
National Polling AssessmentOctober 11 2012
Kieran MahoneyCEO
New York, NY | [email protected]
Kirill GoncharenkoPresident
New York, NY | [email protected]
Senator James TalentCo-Chairman
Washington, DC| [email protected]
Hon. Fernando FerrerCo-Chairman
New York, NY | [email protected]
Hon. Fabian NunezPartner
Sacramento, CA| [email protected]
Hon. Max SandlinCo-Chairman
Washington, DC | [email protected]
Thomas DohertyPartner
Albany, NY | [email protected]
Michael McKeonPartner
New York, NY | [email protected]
Adam MendelsohnPartner
Sacramento, CA| [email protected]
Michael DuHaimePartner
Westfield, NJ| [email protected]
Hon. Vin WeberPartner
Washington, DC | [email protected]