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MERITS OF METHODOLOGY

How to Conduct Systematic Political Research

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Lecture Structure

Aims Methods of Comparison Single Case Study Using Quantitative Literature Applying a Theory vs. Discursive Method

3 Methods of Comparison

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Methodology

Definition: A body of methods, rules, and postulates

employed by a discipline: a particular procedure or set of procedures.

The analysis of the principles of inquiry in a particular field.

(Merriam-Webster Dictionary)

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Questions addressed in this course

How should we study conflict? What causes conflict? Who participates in conflict? How do people behave during conflict? What are the consequences of conflict? How do we evaluate conflict?

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Comparing Literature

What is the key similarity between Mamdani (2001) and Collier & Hoeffler

(2004)?

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Comparing Literature

Mamdani (2001) Rwandan genocide 1994 Qualitative evidence

Collier and Hoeffler (2004) Civil conflicts 1960-1999 Quantitative evidence

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Methods of Comparison

Three basic approaches to answering a research question: Large-N: > 50 cases. Small-N: 2-20 cases. Single case study: 1 case.

N = number of cases/observations.

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Small-n (aka ‘comparative method’)

Cases are intentionally selected in order to establish ‘control.’

Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD). Similar cases. Different outcome.

Most Different Systems Design (MDSD). Different cases. Same outcome.

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Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD)

Which cases would you use to investigate the link between ethnic tensions and civil

war, using this research design?

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Most Different Systems Design (MDSD)

Which cases would you use to investigate the link between ethnic tensions and civil

war, using this research design?

12 Single Case Study

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What is a Single-Country Study?

“any study in which a single country forms the basic unit of analysis, but which may also be broken down into smaller units across time and space...” (Landman, 2000: 86)

N = 1

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What is a Case Study?

Single observation/case: Time Space Level of Analysis

N = 1

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Functions of a Case Study Classification. Contextual description. Hypothesis generation. Theory testing:

Most likely study. Least likely study.

Outliers. Process tracing.

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Limitations of Single Case Studies

Limited scope/generalisability.

Selection bias.

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Further Reading

Landman, Todd. 2007. Issues and Methods in Comparative Politics: An Introduction. London: Routledge.

18 Quantitative Literature

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Regression Analysis (1/2)

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.50

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

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3.5

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4.5

Natural Resources/GDP

Con

flic

t

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Characteristics of Quantitative Literature

Large-N

Empirical data

Statistical techniques

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Large-n

How many observations are examined in Collier and Hoeffler (2004)?

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Collier & Hoeffler’s dataset by the numbers

98 countries

79 civil conflicts

1960-1999 divided into 5-year periods

750 observations

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Concepts in this Course

Authority and coercion; Structural violence and deadly force; Conflict and war; Positive and negative peace; Peacemaking; Peacekeeping; Peace enforcement; Peacebuilding; The military; and Militarism.

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Concept v. Variable

Concept = abstract.

Variable = observable/measurable.

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How do we measure the following concepts?

Conflict

Democracy

Ethnic tension

Inequality

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Statistical Techniques

Used to look for patterns between variables.

Correlation: relationship between two variables.

Correlation is not the same as causation! Example: ice cream and summer.

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Natural Resources and Conflict

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

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Natural Resources/GDP

Con

flic

t

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Regression

Adds a line of best fit to the observed result.

Regression analysis therefore measures the extent to which independent variables predict the dependent variable.

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Regression Analysis (1/2)

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.50

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Natural Resources/GDP

Con

flic

t

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Regression Analysis (2/2)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Natural Resources/GDP

Con

flic

t

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Terminology

Significance Levels

Regressor/Predictor/Independent Variable

P-values

Confidence intervals

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Limitations

Cannot prove causation.

Limited interpretive ability (i.e. explaining why these relationships exist).

Use of proxies.

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Analysing Collier & Hoeffler (2004)

Q: Does natural resource prevalence explain the onset of civil conflict?

Steps to follow: How did they operationalise and measure these concepts. Do these proxies make sense? Is there correlation? In

other words – what do we see happening to the likelihood of conflict variable when we look at different natural resource/GDP values.

Ask how much we should read into the correlation. Ask the students here what might make us more or less likely to find one of the correlations important or suggestive of a causal relationship.

34 Theory and Your Research

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Applying Theory Systematically

Logic of theory

Language that a theory demands

Units of analysis

Consistency through the paper

Acknowledging limitations

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Referring to Theory as Evidence

Not constrained by the logic of the

theory

Used to add to understanding, or to hold

theory up to criticism or praise

Can compare explanations offered by

different theories