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Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference September 28, 2004

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Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference. September 28, 2004. Cautionary Statements And Risk Factors That May Affect Future Results. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

Merrill LynchPower and Gas Leaders Conference September 28, 2004

Page 2: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

2

Cautionary Statements And Risk Factors That May Affect Future Results

Any statements made herein about future operating results or other future events are forward-looking statements under the Safe Harbor Provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from such forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors that could cause actual results or events to vary is contained in the Appendix herein.

Page 3: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

3

FPL Group

FPL FPL Energy

Two Strong Businesses

1 As of 6/30/042 Year ended 12/31/033 See Appendix for reconciliation of GAAP and adjusted earnings

• Largest electric utility in Florida• Vertically integrated, retail rate- regulated utility• 4.2 million customers1

• $8.3 billion operating revenue2

• 5-year average annual growth in net income of 4%

• Successful wholesale generator• U.S. market leader in wind-

generation • 10,768 mw in operation1

• $1.3 billion operating revenue2

• 5-year average annual growth in adjusted net income of 40%3

Page 4: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

4

Performance Rewarded in Capital MarketsIndexed Return Since 12/31/98

Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-0450

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Ind

exe

d R

etu

rn (

%)

37.0%

17.3%

(1.9)%

FPL Group

S&P 500 Index

Dow Jones Utilities Index

Through 9/23/04

Page 5: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

5

FPL GroupThird Quarter Year to Date

• Florida Power & Light– continued very strong customer growth– customer usage growth trend coming back– continued strong operational performance– weather, weather, and more weather

• FPL Energy– on track for a very strong year– very little summer weather– wind resource slightly below long term averages– excellent operational performance

2004 EPS of $5.05 to $5.15 1 excluding the impact of Hurricanes Charley and Frances 2

1 Assuming normal weather for the balance of the year and excluding the cumulative effect of adopting new accounting standards as well as the mark-to-market effect of non-qualifying hedges neither of which can be determined at this time

2 See appendix for reconciliation of GAAP and adjusted earnings

Page 6: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference
Page 7: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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FPL: A Leading Electric Utility

• Attractive growth• Superior cost performance• Operational excellence• Constructive regulatory

environment• Delivering value to customers

and shareholders

Page 8: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

8

FPL: Strong Top-Line Growth

37%

36%

3%19%

3%4%

Other

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

Strong Demand Growth(10 years)

• Customer growth of 2.1% 1

• Underlying usage growth of 1.5% 1

1 From 1993-20032 From 1992-20023 As of 12/31/034 In 2002. Source: EEI Statistics Department

% of Revenues by Customer Class

FPL 3 IndustryAverage 4

56%

42%

3.6%

2.4%

Av

g a

nn

ua

l kW

h

FPL 1 IndustryAverage 2

Page 9: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

9

1.79 1.78

1.79

1.26

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Cen

ts

FPL: Consistent Track Record of Cost Management

O&M per Retail kwh

Industry

FPL

Page 10: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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FPL: Constructive Regulatory Environment

• Florida regulation is structurally sound– appointed commission– pass-through of fuel and purchased power costs

• Commission has a long history of “win-win” regulatory agreements– mid 1990’s: accelerated amortization of regulatory assets and plant– 1999 - 2002: 6% price reduction; revenue sharing introduced; no official

ROE– 2002 - 2005: 7% price reduction; revenue sharing continued; no official ROE

• Current agreement expires Dec 31, 2005– commission has indicated a preference for negotiated solutions– company will be prepared for either negotiated settlement or full rate review

Page 11: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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Page 12: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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Hurricane CharleyAugust 13, 2004

Page 13: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

13Source: http://www.spikowski.com/HurricaneCharleyTrack.pdf

Page 14: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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Hurricane FrancesSeptember 4-6, 2004

Page 15: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

15Source: http://www.spikowski.com/HurricaneTracks-Charley+Frances.pdf

Page 16: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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Frances Immense Reach

Area # of Outages

Broward 590,600

Miami-Dade 423,400

North FL 117,700

N. Central FL 500,200

Palm Beach 660,000

Southwest FL 253,400

Treasure Coast 240,200

Total 2,785,500

Page 17: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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Restoration Time Comparisons

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Number of Days after Storm

Mill

ion

of

Cu

sto

mer

s

94% of Andrew restored by 17 days;

100% by 45 days

Frances

Charley

Page 18: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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Hurricane Restoration EffortsRestoration Charley Frances 1

Personnel

FPL 5,250 8,741

Foreign and contractor 5,700 7,997

Total 10,950 16,738

Staging sites 11 12

Rooms 4,700 15,000

Pounds of ice/day 57,000 78,000

Gallons of water/day 16,000 22,000

Meals served/day 28,000 44,000

Gallons of fuel/day 75,000 192,000

Materials issued to date

Poles 6,100 3,651

Miles of conductor 606 685

Transformers 5,400 3,7931 Preliminary figures. As of 9/16/04

Page 19: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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Storm Fund

• FPL maintains insurance for its power plants and is self-insured for storm damage to its transmission and distribution facilities

• FPL currently accrues $20 million per year for the storm reserve

• As of August 31, 2004 the balance was approximately $345 million

• Hurricane Charley cost – expected to deplete roughly half of the storm reserve

• Hurricane Frances cost – likely that FPL will incur expenses in excess of the storm reserve balance and insurance coverage

Page 20: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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FPL: Hurricane Financial Implications

• Storm restoration costs are recoverable and should have no adverse impact on earnings– restoration costs first withdrawn from storm fund reserve

– costs above the storm fund reserve will be deferred

• Estimates of lost revenues from customer outages range from $30 million to $35 million– lost revenues are not recoverable from the storm fund reserve

• Expected adverse impact on third quarter earnings of $0.08-$0.12 per share

Page 21: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference
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FPL Energy: A DisciplinedWholesale Generator

• Moderate risk approach– diversified by region, fuel source– well hedged portfolio– emphasis on base-load assets

• Low cost provider– modern, efficient, clean plants– operational excellence

• Industry leader in wind generation

• Conservative, integrated asset optimization function

11,539 1 Net MW in Operation YE04

1 As of 8/31/04

West

FPL Energy operations

Northeast

24%

25%

17%

34%Central

Mid-Atlantic

Wind

Gas57%

24%Other1%

Hydro

3% 6%Oil Nuclear

9%

Fuel Diversity

Page 23: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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FPL Energy 2005 Contract Coverage

Asset Class Available

MW 1

% MW Under

Contract

Wind 2 2,719 100 Contracted 2,202 99 Merchant

NEPOOL 3 2,301 61 ERCOT 3 2,732 52 All other 3 1,275 8

Total portfolio 3 11,229 70

1 Weighted to reflect in-service dates, planned maintenance, and refueling outages at Seabrook2 Reflects Round-the-Clock MW3 Reflects on-peak MWAs of 6/30/04

Almost 85 percent of expected 2005 gross margin hedged

Page 24: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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Significant Growth Opportunities

• World-leader in wind• 89 net mw Seabrook uprate• Asset optimization growth across our portfolio• Origination growth• Upside leverage from merchant fleet• Asset acquisition opportunities

Page 25: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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Wind Leadership• Since 2000, FPL Energy has

added an average of 565 mw of wind per year

• Long-term potential average of 200 - 500 mw per year

• $125 - $150/kw of estimated shareholder value creation

• PTC program expiration has resulted in “lumpiness” of investment opportunities

• Approximately 3,000 mw in development pipeline

• Optimistic about PTC passage in 2004

17%18%

22%

33%

37%

43%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

98 99 00 01 02 03

mw

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

FPL Energy Total Industry FPL Energy Market Share

Page 26: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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Seabrook Margin Improvement Potential

• Seabrook capacity is 1,024 net-mw• 89 net-mw uprate planned

– 72 net-mw in Spring 2005

– 17 net-mw in Fall 2006

• Future output being hedged at prices higher than realized today

• 60% of capacity is already hedged for 2007

Roughly $85 million in incremental net contribution margin expected by 2007 from uprate and better pricing

Page 27: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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FPL Energy Business Strategies• Maximize value of current portfolio

– cost control– operational reliability– risk management– asset optimization

• Expand market-leading wind position– new development– support policy trends– acquisitions– explore international

• Build portfolio incrementally and selectively– nuclear– fossil (includes QF partners)– criteria: accretive, strategically attractive and financeable

Page 28: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference
Page 29: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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2004 Earnings Update 1

1 See appendix for reconciliation of GAAP and adjusted earnings2 Excludes the mark-to-market effect of non-qualifying hedges3 Excluding the cumulative effect of adopting new accounting standards as well as the mark-to-market effect of

non-qualifying hedges neither of which can be determined at this time4 Assuming normal weather for the forecast period

1st Half 2

FPL 1.72$ 1.60$ – 1.65$ 4.25$ – 4.30$ FPL Energy 0.65 0.35 – 0.39 1.15 – 1.25 Corp & Other (0.20) (0.09) – (0.11) (0.35) – (0.40)

FPL Group 2.17$ 1.86$ – 1.93$ 5.05$ – 5.15$

Charley / Frances (0.08)$ – (0.12)$ (0.08)$ – (0.12)$

Third Quarter 3, 4 Full Year 3, 4

Page 30: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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Strong, Tangible Growth Prospects

• Customer and usage growth at FPL• Growing wind business• Seabrook Station improvements• Contract restructurings• Asset acquisitions• Upside leverage on merchant fossil fleet• Acquisitions of regulated distribution

companies and/or regulated integrated utilities• Gas infrastructure / LNG

Page 31: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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The Building Blocks of Long-Term Growth

Potential Range of Contribution to 5-year

Growth

2.5% 3.0%

0.0% 1.0%

2.3% 4.5%

1.0% 2.0%

5.8% 10.5%

Base Growth atFlorida Power & Light

Base Growth atFPL Energy

+

+

Return to MerchantMarket Equilibrium

Accretion From ExcessCash Flow

+

Long-Term EarningsGrowth Potential

FPL Group =

Above figures are illustrative only, and not intended to represent a specific forecast. Please refer to FPL Group’s Safe Harbor Statement.

Page 32: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference
Page 33: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

Appendix

Page 34: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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2004 EPS Reconciliation

1H04Earnings (Loss) Per Share (assuming dilution)FPL 1.72$ 1.48$ – 1.57$ 4.13$ – 4.22$ FPL Energy 0.68 0.35 – 0.39 1.15 – 1.25 Corporate & Other (0.20) (0.09) – (0.11) (0.35) – (0.40)

FPL Group 2.20$ 1.74$ – 1.85$ 4.93$ – 5.07$

Adjustments:Hurricanes Charley and Frances - FPL - 0.12 – 0.08 0.12 – 0.08

Net unrealized mark-to-market gains associatedwith non-qualifying hedges - FPL Energy (0.03)

Earnings (Loss) Per Share excluding certain itemsFPL 1.72$ 1.60$ – 1.65$ 4.25$ – 4.30$ FPL Energy 0.65 0.35 – 0.39 1.15 – 1.25 Corporate & Other (0.20) (0.09) – (0.11) (0.35) – (0.40) FPL Group 2.17$ 1.86$ – 1.93$ 5.05$ – 5.15$

3Q04 1 FY04 1

1 Assuming normal weather for the balance of the year and excluding the cumulative effect of adopting new accounting standards as well as the mark-to-market effect of non-qualifying hedges neither of which can be determined at this time

Page 35: Merrill Lynch Power and Gas Leaders Conference

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Cautionary Statements And Risk Factors That May Affect Future Results

In connection with the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (Reform Act), FPL Group, Inc. (FPL Group) and Florida Power & Light Company (FPL) are hereby filing cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause FPL Group's or FPL's actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements (as such term is defined in the Reform Act) made by or on behalf of FPL Group and FPL in this presentation, in response to questions or otherwise.  Any statements that express, or involve discussions as to expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but not always, through the use of words or phrases such as will likely result, are expected to, will continue, is anticipated, believe, could, estimated, may, plan, potential, projection, target, outlook) are not statements of historical facts and may be forward-looking. Forward-looking statements involve estimates, assumptions and uncertainties.  Accordingly, any such statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to, and are accompanied by, the following important factors (in addition to any assumptions and other factors referred to specifically in connection with such forward-looking statements) that could cause FPL Group's or FPL's actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of FPL Group and FPL.

Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and FPL Group and FPL undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which such statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.  New factors emerge from time to time and it is not possible for management to predict all of such factors, nor can it assess the impact of each such factor on the business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement.

The following are some important factors that could have a significant impact on FPL Group's and FPL's operations and financial results, and could cause FPL Group's and FPL's actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements:

FPL Group and FPL are subject to changes in laws or regulations, including the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978, as amended (PURPA), and the Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935, as amended (Holding Company Act), changing governmental policies and regulatory actions, including those of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the Florida Public Service Commission (FPSC) and the utility commissions of other states in which FPL Group has operations, and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), with respect to, among other things, allowed rates of return, industry and rate structure, operation of nuclear power facilities, operation and construction of plant facilities, operation and construction of transmission facilities, acquisition, disposal, depreciation and amortization of assets and facilities, recovery of fuel and purchased power costs, decommissioning costs, return on common equity and equity ratio limits, and present or prospective wholesale and retail competition (including but not limited to retail wheeling and transmission costs).  The FPSC has the authority to disallow recovery by FPL of costs that it considers excessive or imprudently incurred.

The regulatory process generally restricts FPL's ability to grow earnings and does not provide any assurance as to achievement of earnings levels.

FPL Group and FPL are subject to extensive federal, state and local environmental statutes, rules and regulations relating to air quality, water quality, waste management, wildlife mortality, natural resources and health and safety that could, among other things, restrict or limit the output of certain facilities or the use of certain fuels required for the production of electricity and/or increase costs.  There are significant capital, operating and other costs associated with compliance with these environmental statutes, rules and regulations, and those costs could be even more significant in the future.

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FPL Group and FPL operate in a changing market environment influenced by various legislative and regulatory initiatives regarding deregulation, regulation or restructuring of the energy industry, including deregulation of the production and sale of electricity.  FPL Group and its subsidiaries will need to adapt to these changes and may face increasing competitive pressure.

FPL Group's and FPL's results of operations could be affected by FPL's ability to renegotiate franchise agreements with municipalities and counties in Florida.

The operation of power generation facilities involves many risks, including start up risks, breakdown or failure of equipment, transmission lines or pipelines, use of new technology, the dependence on a specific fuel source or the impact of unusual or adverse weather conditions (including natural disasters such as hurricanes), as well as the risk of performance below expected or contracted levels of output or efficiency.  This could result in lost revenues and/or increased expenses. Insurance, warranties or performance guarantees may not cover any or all of the lost revenues or increased expenses, including the cost of replacement power. In addition to these risks, FPL Group's and FPL's nuclear units face certain risks that are unique to the nuclear industry including the ability to dispose of spent nuclear fuel, as well as additional regulatory actions up to and including shutdown of the units stemming from public safety concerns, whether at FPL Group's and FPL's plants, or at the plants of other nuclear operators.  Breakdown or failure of an FPL Energy, LLC (FPL Energy) operating facility may prevent the facility from performing under applicable power sales agreements which, in certain situations, could result in termination of the agreement or incurring a liability for liquidated damages.

FPL Group's and FPL's ability to successfully and timely complete their power generation facilities currently under construction, those projects yet to begin construction or capital improvements to existing facilities is contingent upon many variables and subject to substantial risks.  Should any such efforts be unsuccessful, FPL Group and FPL could be subject to additional costs, termination payments under committed contracts, and/or the write-off of their investment in the project or improvement.

FPL Group and FPL use derivative instruments, such as swaps, options, futures and forwards to manage their commodity and financial market risks, and to a lesser extent, engage in limited trading activities.  FPL Group could recognize financial losses as a result of volatility in the market values of these contracts, or if a counterparty fails to perform.  In the absence of actively quoted market prices and pricing information from external sources, the valuation of these derivative instruments involves management's judgment or use of estimates.  As a result, changes in the underlying assumptions or use of alternative valuation methods could affect the reported fair value of these contracts.  In addition, FPL's use of such instruments could be subject to prudency challenges and if found imprudent, cost recovery could be disallowed by the FPSC.

There are other risks associated with FPL Group's non-rate regulated businesses, particularly FPL Energy.  In addition to risks discussed elsewhere, risk factors specifically affecting FPL Energy's success in competitive wholesale markets include the ability to efficiently develop and operate generating assets, the successful and timely completion of project restructuring activities, maintenance of the qualifying facility status of certain projects, the price and supply of fuel, transmission constraints, competition from new sources of generation, excess generation capacity and demand for power.  There can be significant volatility in market prices for fuel and electricity, and there are other financial, counterparty and market risks that are beyond the control of FPL Energy.  FPL Energy's inability or failure to effectively hedge its assets or positions against changes in commodity prices, interest rates, counterparty credit risk or other risk measures could significantly impair its future financial results.  In keeping with industry trends, a portion of FPL Energy's power generation facilities operate wholly or partially without long-term power purchase agreements.  As a result, power from these facilities is sold on the spot market or on a short-term contractual basis, which may affect the volatility of FPL Group's financial results.  In addition, FPL Energy's business depends upon transmission facilities owned and operated by others; if transmission is disrupted or capacity is inadequate or unavailable, FPL Energy's ability to sell and deliver its wholesale power may be limited.

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FPL Group is likely to encounter significant competition for acquisition opportunities that may become available as a result of the consolidation of the power industry.  In addition, FPL Group may be unable to identify attractive acquisition opportunities at favorable prices and to successfully and timely complete and integrate them.

FPL Group and FPL rely on access to capital markets as a significant source of liquidity for capital requirements not satisfied by operating cash flows.  The inability of FPL Group and FPL to maintain their current credit ratings could affect their ability to raise capital on favorable terms, particularly during times of uncertainty in the capital markets, which, in turn, could impact FPL Group's and FPL's ability to grow their businesses and would likely increase interest costs.

FPL Group's and FPL's results of operations can be affected by changes in the weather.  Weather conditions directly influence the demand for electricity and natural gas and affect the price of energy commodities, and can affect the production of electricity at wind and hydro-powered facilities.  In addition, severe weather can be destructive, causing outages and/or property damage, which could require additional costs to be incurred.

FPL Group and FPL are subject to costs and other effects of legal and administrative proceedings, settlements, investigations and claims, as well as the effect of new, or changes in, tax rates or policies, rates of inflation, accounting standards, securities laws or corporate governance requirements.

FPL Group and FPL are subject to direct and indirect effects of terrorist threats and activities.  Generation and transmission facilities, in general, have been identified as potential targets.  The effects of terrorist threats and activities include, among other things, terrorist actions or responses to such actions or threats, the inability to generate, purchase or transmit power, the risk of a significant slowdown in growth or a decline in the U.S. economy, delay in economic recovery in the United States, and the increased cost and adequacy of security and insurance.

FPL Group's and FPL's ability to obtain insurance, and the cost of and coverage provided by such insurance, could be affected by national events as well as company-specific events.

FPL Group and FPL are subject to employee workforce factors, including loss or retirement of key executives, availability of qualified personnel, collective bargaining agreements with union employees or work stoppage.

The issues and associated risks and uncertainties described above are not the only ones FPL Group and FPL may face.  Additional issues may arise or become material as the energy industry evolves.  The risks and uncertainties associated with these additional issues could impair FPL Group's and FPL's businesses in the future.