Mesoscale Mesoscale Investigations Investigations

and Modeling in and Modeling in the Northern the Northern Mid-AtlanticMid-Atlantic

Paul J. Croft and Paul J. Croft and Shing YohShing Yoh

Operational interest & concernOperational interest & concern Watch, Warn, HWO, Others (hazards or Watch, Warn, HWO, Others (hazards or

not)not) High Population Region & CustomersHigh Population Region & Customers

Density, Diversity, DependenceDensity, Diversity, Dependence Climate regions & Transition ZonesClimate regions & Transition Zones

Physiography, Land Use, Seasonal Physiography, Land Use, Seasonal ProgressionProgression

Characteristic Patterns & PhenomenaCharacteristic Patterns & Phenomena Behaviors in Space & TimeBehaviors in Space & Time

Specification ImportantSpecification Important Conceptual Understanding, Forecasts & Conceptual Understanding, Forecasts &

Operations, Verification, & ModelingOperations, Verification, & Modeling

Mesoscale Mesoscale Variations…Variations…

Items to Items to consider…consider… Cool season severe weatherCool season severe weather

Winter season fog (Dec-Jan-Feb)Winter season fog (Dec-Jan-Feb) Air Quality Index (spring-Air Quality Index (spring-

summer)summer) October tropical cyclones (NJ)October tropical cyclones (NJ) Rain-snow line (Dec-Jan-Feb)Rain-snow line (Dec-Jan-Feb) Sea breeze (spring-summer)Sea breeze (spring-summer) Summer season convective Summer season convective

initiation, distribution, coverageinitiation, distribution, coverage Lightning patterns (Jun-Jul-Aug)Lightning patterns (Jun-Jul-Aug) IntentionIntention

Examine, from an operational Examine, from an operational perspective, the types of data & analyses perspective, the types of data & analyses that would best assist a forecaster in the that would best assist a forecaster in the spatial & temporal specification of the spatial & temporal specification of the resultant sensible weather conditions & resultant sensible weather conditions & to determine how these vary with time as to determine how these vary with time as a function of local effects (e.g., a function of local effects (e.g., physiography), mesoscale features, & physiography), mesoscale features, & the prevailing synoptic scale flowthe prevailing synoptic scale flow

Select Significant Features/IssuesSelect Significant Features/Issues Relevance to Region & UsersRelevance to Region & Users Opportunity for CollaborationOpportunity for Collaboration Research Collective & CommunityResearch Collective & Community

All Severe Weather Reports by Month

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

October November December January February March

Month

# o

f S

ever

e W

eath

er R

epo

rts

Tornado

Wind

Hail

T

H

WW

WWW W W

WW

W

T

W

W

W WW

W

W

W

H

H HHH H

HH

HH

H

H

HH

T

W

W

W

WW

W

W

W

W

W

W

WW

W

W

W

W

T

TW

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W W

W

W

W

W

WW

W

W

W

WWW

W

0 40 8020 Miles

All Storm Reports

Methods to Methods to use…use…

Composite AnalysisComposite Analysis GIS MappingGIS Mapping Observational DataObservational Data Remote Sensing DataRemote Sensing Data Online Data SetsOnline Data Sets Select ParametersSelect Parameters Statistical AnalysisStatistical Analysis Evolution & Evolution &

ConceptualConceptual……and need for modeling!and need for modeling!

9799

93

114

142

103

159

112

138

104

129

111

103

115

All Events

17

15

18

61

23

30

25

23

23

2017

24

26

22

All Dense Events

21

39

22

43

16

19

35

23

45

1512

19

23

26

All High Pressure Events

55

57

46

65

49

53

57

48

47

4948

51

47

45

All Low Pressure Events

38

46

35

51

32

40

46

33

37

3533

41

33

44

All Frontal Events

Localized – Scattered - Widespread

o Independent StudyIndependent Studyo Students Partnering with Students Partnering with

FacultyFacultyo External SupportExternal Support

Results & Results & FeaturesFeatures AQI PatternsAQI Patterns October TropicalOctober Tropical Rain-Snow LineRain-Snow Line Sea Breeze “Family”Sea Breeze “Family” Convective Convective

Initiation, Coverage, Initiation, Coverage, LightningLightning

/0 20 40 60 8010

Miles

King

Kent

Kent

Essex

Ocean

Union

Bronx

BerksBurks

Cecil

Morris

Hudson

Warren

Bergen

Mercer

Camden

Orange

Lehigh

Sussex

Passaic

Luzerne

Chester

Charles

Monmouth

Atlantic

Delaware

Hartford

Hunderdon

Middlesex

Baltimore

Burlington

Cumberland

Gloucester

Lackawanna

Montgomery

New Castle

Westchester

Northampton

Anne Arundel

Baltimore City

Prince George's

Air Quality Monitoring Sites

0 0.4 0.80.2 Decimal Degrees

²

High Pressure SouthEast

60

58

51

63

68

60

56.6

58.8

52.6

60.2

70.6

70.467.4

55.8

73.8

70.47

75.2776.67

74.53

63.47

61.13

68.87

60.73

55.34

73.13

47.07

57.13

62.27

49.3455.43

46.87

54.53

59.67

70.07

54.67

57.47

64.73 53.33

56.93

76.87

56.06

60.93

Rainfall Data for EWR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

Year

Am

ou

nt

(in

ches

)

Initiates, Evolution, CoverageInitiates, Evolution, CoverageSynoptic Regime, Base State FlowSynoptic Regime, Base State Flow

WRF: Operational & Research WRF: Operational & Research InvestigationsInvestigations

What – WRF ARW v2.0.3 Where – Northeastern US,

centered over New Jersey

Why – Mesoscale feature behaviors, characteristics & dynamics

How – Students & Partners Outcomes – Real-time data with

numeric analyses for operational forecasting and research diagnostics

Grid size : 100x100x31 Grid spacing : 15 km Model forecasts

start at 00Z (7:00 p.m. EST) using NCEP NAM-ETA 00 UTC analysis

Boundary conditions : every 6 hours from NCEP NAM-ETA 00 UTC forecast

(a) Temperature

-2-1.5

-1-0.5

00.5

11.5

22.5

3

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

T BIAS T MAE

Kean University WRF 36h Kean University WRF 36h forecastforecast

(2005/08 to 2006/06 Configuration)(2005/08 to 2006/06 Configuration) Model Physics

Microphysics: Ferrier microphysics Long wave: RRTM scheme Short wave: Dudhia scheme Surface layer: Monin-Obukhov

(Janjic-Eta) Land surface: thermal diffusion Boundary layer: YSU Cumulus physics: Kain-Fritsch

scheme Post analysis

wrf2gem: WRF netCDF to GEMPAK converter

Unidata GEMPAK Analysis Program Microsoft Excel

Model Statistics

Interpolated (Unidata GEMAPK gdgsfc) model surface forecasts to 16 ASOS observation sites (New Jersey and surrounding cities)

Comparisons were made for hourly WRF forecast 2 meter temperature, 2 meter dewpoint, sea level pressure and 10 meter wind with observations at ASOS stations

(b) Dewpoint

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

TD BIAS TD MAE

(c) SLP

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

P BIAS P MAE

Kean University WRF Configuration – now & Kean University WRF Configuration – now & future…future…

Update to WRF ARW v2.1.2 WRF domain – expand grid size to 120x116x31 Grid Spacing held at 15 km Model forecasts start at 00Z (7:00 p.m. EST) based on

NCEP NAM-WRF 00 UTC analysis Boundary conditions: every 6 hours from NCEP NAM-

WRF 00 UTC forecast WRF Model Physics – unchanged Addition of NJWXNET (high resolution mesoscale

observations GIS for geographical & other physiographical

databases(d) Wind Speed

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Vector Wind Error (Speed)

Scalar Wind MAE (e) Wind Direction

0

90

180

270

360

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Vector Wind Error (Direction)

RelationshipsRelationshipsSignificant Phenomena with…Significant Phenomena with…

Synoptic RegimesSynoptic Regimes Physiographic FeaturesPhysiographic Features Operational AnalysisOperational Analysis Seasonal/Diurnal/Event ProgressionSeasonal/Diurnal/Event Progression

Operational Relevance using…Operational Relevance using… Behaviors & TimelineBehaviors & Timeline Features & CharacteristicsFeatures & Characteristics Family/Spectra of Phenomenal Family/Spectra of Phenomenal

Attributes & Conceptual Model for Attributes & Conceptual Model for Numerical ModelingNumerical Modeling

Interactions with FeaturesInteractions with Features

Undergraduate Undergraduate Students…Students…

The research The research investigations form the investigations form the basis of the basis of the SECUREDSECURED program…program…

Student Educational Student Educational Collective for Collective for Undergraduate Undergraduate Research Experiences Research Experiences and Development at and Development at Kean UniversityKean University

Collectively…Collectively… Kean University Kean University

Operational Undergraduate Operational Undergraduate Research in Meteorology & Research in Meteorology & Professional Activities and Professional Activities and Collaborative TrainingCollaborative Training

KU-OUR-KU-OUR-METPACTMETPACT

Growth through Research Growth through Research in Operational Weather – in Operational Weather – Training HolisticallyTraining Holistically

GROWTHGROWTH

PartnerPartners…s…Department of Geology and Meteorology has Department of Geology and Meteorology has

established a variety of partnerships in the established a variety of partnerships in the region…region…

National Weather ServiceNational Weather ServiceOffice of the New Jersey State ClimatologistOffice of the New Jersey State Climatologist

Private Sector & Local InterestsPrivate Sector & Local InterestsOthers…Others…

Tailor research to operational needs and outcomesTailor research to operational needs and outcomes External & internal support (SpF Program Kean External & internal support (SpF Program Kean

University) University) Student stipends, supplies and/or equipment relative to Student stipends, supplies and/or equipment relative to

the research activities, conference travel, other costs the research activities, conference travel, other costs

Operational Applications & Operational Applications & Our FutureOur Future

Outreach…Outreach… Local CommunitiesLocal Communities K-12 EducationK-12 Education Kean University Kean University

faculty, students, faculty, students, non-majors…non-majors…

Professional Professional Organizations…Organizations…

Future Work…Future Work… Expansion of studiesExpansion of studies Collaborative planning Collaborative planning

and performance of and performance of research and research and professional activities professional activities with studentswith students

Numerical Modeling Numerical Modeling and Investigations and Investigations continue…continue…

Conceptual Model Conceptual Model development…development…

Thanks!Thanks!

AcknowledgementsDepartment of Geology & Meteorology

Faculty & Staff, Students and Majors, AlumniKean University Meteorology Program

KU Upward Bound ProgramCenter for Earth Science Education

KU – Epsilon Corps Program