mesoscale objective analysis: an analysis of record? john horel noaa cooperative institute for...
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Mesoscale Objective Analysis:Mesoscale Objective Analysis:An Analysis of Record?An Analysis of Record?
John HorelJohn HorelNOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional PredictionNOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional Prediction
Department of MeteorologyDepartment of MeteorologyUniversity of UtahUniversity of Utah
[email protected]@met.utah.edu
Brad ColmanBrad ColmanSeattle Weather Forecast OfficeSeattle Weather Forecast Office
[email protected]@noaa.gov
Co-ChairsCo-ChairsMesoscale Analysis CommitteeMesoscale Analysis Committee
NWS Office of Science and TechnologyNWS Office of Science and Technology
http://www.met.utah.edu/jhorel/homepages/jhorel/mac.htm
ContextContext• Admiral Lautenbacher
– “Observations alone are often meaningless without the actions that provide economic and societal benefit”
• Comprehensive weather and climate observing system requires integration and synthesis of observations into gridded analyses of current and past states of atmosphere
• NWS has critical need to produce real-time and retrospective analyses at high resolution to help create and verify gridded forecasts as part of NWS Digital Services Program (L. Spayd IIPS Thursday)
Societal Benefits
Climate Variability and
ChangeOcean
Resources
DisastersEnergy
HealthAgriculture
EcosystemWater Resources
GEOSS--- Creating a “System of Systems”GEOSS--- Creating a “System of Systems”
Global Observing Systems
GCOSGOOSGTOS
WHYCOSWorld Weather
IGBPIOOSCEOSIGOS
Global Observing Systems
GCOSGOOSGTOS
WHYCOSWorld Weather
IGBPIOOSCEOSIGOS
National/Multinational Observing Systems
Satellites
Surface Obs.
Radar
Aircraft
Ocean Observations
Paleo-data
National/Multinational Observing Systems
Satellites
Surface Obs.
Radar
Aircraft
Ocean Observations
Paleo-data
Private Sector Observing Systems
Satellites
Mesonets
Lightning
Commercial Aircraft
Private Sector Observing Systems
Satellites
Mesonets
Lightning
Commercial Aircraft
3
Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System
P. Arkin
Global Earth Observing System of Systems
Proposed Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System
(http://www.joss.ucar.edu/joss_psg/meetings/climatesystem/) for pdf version of report and background information from the workshop.
Workshop 18-20 August 2003, Boulder, ColoradoWorkshop 18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado
P. Arkin
• Integrate and analyze global observations
• Describe and monitor climate variations and their causes as they occur
• Understand and model climate changes and their origins
• Assess impacts regionally: on environment, human activities and sectors such as agriculture, energy, fisheries, water resources, etc.
See also Trenberth et al. (2002) BAMS
NWS Traditional Forecasting ProcessNWS Traditional Forecasting Process
– Schedule Driven
– Product Oriented
– Labor Intensive
National CentersNational CentersGenerate Graphical ProductsGenerate Graphical Products
National CentersNational Centers Model GuidanceModel Guidance
Field OfficesField OfficesType Text ProductsType Text Products
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.
MARYLAND EASTERN SHOREEASTONPTCLDY CLOUDY PTCLDY PTCLDY SUNNY PTCLDY60/52 63/54 65/47 55/40 55/37 50/33POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 10 POP 10
MARYLAND EASTERN SHOREEASTONPTCLDY CLOUDY PTCLDY PTCLDY SUNNY PTCLDY60/52 63/54 65/47 55/40 55/37 50/33POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 10 POP 10
U.S. Drought U.S. Drought MonitorMonitor
Excessive Heat Excessive Heat ProductsProducts
Threats Threats AssessmentsAssessments
User-Generated ProductsUser-Generated Products
NWS New Forecasting ProcessNWS New Forecasting Process
• Interactive– Collaborative– Information
Oriented
NWS Automated ProductsNWS Automated Products
TextText
GraphicGraphic
DigitalDigital
VoiceVoice
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.
SNOW LIKELY ABOVE
2500 FEET. SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY
LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO
2 INCHES ABOVE 2500
FEET. COLDER WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO
10 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE
SOUTHWESTEARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70%.
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.
SNOW LIKELY ABOVE
2500 FEET. SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY
LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO
2 INCHES ABOVE 2500
FEET. COLDER WITH
HIGHS 35 TO 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO
10 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE
SOUTHWESTEARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70%. National Digital National Digital ForecastForecast
Database Database
Local Digital Local Digital ForecastForecast
Database Database
Field Field OfficesOffices
National National CentersCenters
CollaborateCollaborate
Data and Science FocusData and Science Focus
National CentersNational Centers Model GuidanceModel Guidance
High Resolution GridsHigh Resolution Grids
InteractiveForecastPreparationSystem (IFPS)
How Do We Know if the Interactive Forecast How Do We Know if the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) Approach Will Preparation System (IFPS) Approach Will
Be Better?Be Better?
Concerns raised:– C. Mass (2003) WAF– WR SOO/DOH IFPS white paper provided
recommendations:• Develop a national real-time, gridded verification system• Provide full-resolution NCEP model grids• Objectively produce bias-corrected model grids for WFO use• Implement methods to objectively downscale forecast grids• Incorporate climatology grids into the GFE process• Deliver short and medium-range ensemble grids• Modify the GFE software to ingest real-time data • Optimize ways to tap forecaster expertise
Analysis of RecordAnalysis of Record
• Best possible analyses of the atmosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution with particular attention placed on weather and climate conditions near the surface
Needs for AOR Needs for AOR
• NWS gridded forecast preparation and verification
• Mesoscale modeling• Dispersion modeling for transport of hazardous
materials and pollutants• Homeland defense• Aviation and surface transportation• Environmental issues from coastal zone to fire
management• Impacts of climate change on regional scale
A Community Meeting on Real-time and A Community Meeting on Real-time and Retrospective Mesoscale Objective Analysis:Retrospective Mesoscale Objective Analysis:
An Analysis of Record SummitAn Analysis of Record Summit June 2004June 2004
Co-chairs: Brad Colman and John HorelCo-chairs: Brad Colman and John Horel• Can research and operations work together to
define approaches for an analysis of record?• Are there clearly definable requirements and
objectives?• Can we make a compelling business case to fund
the R&D, testing, and implementation?
IssuesIssues
• Real time vs. retrospective needs
• How can AOR resolve detailed microclimates, synoptic and mesoscale weather & localized severe weather?
• NDFD verification needs vs. other needs
• 2-dimensional surface analysis approaches, statistical & dynamical downscaling vs. 3-dimensional data assimilation strategies?
• How can biases of underlying modeling system be minimized?
• How can uncertainty be quantified and expressed to the end user?
• What is possible now vs. what might be possible in a few years?
RecommendationsRecommendations• 1. Proceed rapidly to foster AOR program that meets diverse needs for high spatial
and temporal resolution mesoscale analyses
• 2. AOR program should lead to suite of consistent products:
– Provisional mesoscale analyses available within roughly 30 minutes of the valid time
– Mesoscale analyses completed a day or so after the valid time
– “Gold standard” AOR would be an archive-quality analysis/reanalysis
• 3. Community support for an AOR project must be broadened
• 4. Ongoing research and development efforts supported by other programs are critical to the future success of the AOR program:
– WRF R&D
– COOP modernization
• 5. Mesoscale Analysis Committee (MAC) should be formed that reports to the Director of the NWS Office of Science and Technology
Mesoscale Analysis Committee Meeting Mesoscale Analysis Committee Meeting October 13-14, 2004October 13-14, 2004
• Recommendations for a prototype Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA):– Available hourly within 30 min of valid time– Prototype products on NDFD 5 km grid must be
available for testing by WFOs and other within 6 months
– Analysis products for moisture, temperature, wind– Coordination with OHD and NESDIS for ppt and sky
cover– Quality assurance and estimates of analysis
uncertainty must be incorporated into analysis system
Mesoscale Analysis Committee Meeting Mesoscale Analysis Committee Meeting October 13-14, 2004October 13-14, 2004
• Proposed plan for a prototype Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) :– GFS/Eta model used for initial and lateral boundary
conditions for hourly 20 km RUC– FSL will modify RUC postprocessing to downscale
RUC 20 km grid to 5 km grid– EMC will continue development and implementation
of 2DVAR for temperature, moisture and wind– Quality assurance efforts will include cross validation
and estimate of analysis uncertainty– Separate univariate analyses for ppt and sky cover.
OHD and NESDIS lead efforts
Making Progress?Making Progress?
• Coordination between NCEP and FSL efforts beginning
• QPE working group meeting in San Diego
• Placeholder in budget planning process for FY06-11
• See http://www.met.utah.edu/jhorel/homepages/jhorel/mac.htm
for updates
Comments?Comments?Send email to [email protected]
MAC Committee:• Robert Aune, NOAA/NESDIS University of Wisconsin Space Sciences and Engineering Center • Stanley Benjmain, Forecast Systems Laboratory• Craig Bishop, Naval Research Laboratory • Keith A. Brewster, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms The University of Oklahoma • Brad Colman, Committee Co-chair NOAA/National Weather Service• Christopher Daly, Spatial Climate Analysis Climate Service Oregon State University • Geoff DiMego, NOAA/ National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction • Joshua P. Hacker, National Center for Atmospheric Research • John Horel, Committee Co-chair Department of Meteorology University of Utah • Steven Koch, Forecast Systems Laboratory • Steven Lazarus, Florida Institute of Technology • Jennifer Mahoney, Aviation Division Forecast Systems Laboratory • David Sharp, National Weather Service Melbourne Weather Forecast Office • John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Ex Officio • Andy Edman. Science & Technology Committee representative • LeRoy Spayd. Meteorological Services Division representative • Gary Carter. Office of Hydrology representative • Kenneth Crawford. COOP/ISOS representative