METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS

VOLUME 29 JANUARY 2003 NUMBER 51

Edited by

Dr. Wei-Kuo TaoDr. Robert Adler

American Meteorological Society45 Beacon Street, Boston, Massachusetts 02108

@ Copyright 2003 by the American Meteorological Society. Per-mission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this mono-graph in scientific and educational works is hereby granted providedthe source is acknowledged. All rights reserved. No part of thispublication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, ortransmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical,photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior writtenpermission of the publisher.

ISBN 1-878220-54-3ISSN 0065-9401

Support for this monograph has been provided by the CooperativeResearch Centre for Southern Hemisphere Meteorology, Australia,and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

Published by the American Meteorological Society45 Beacon St., Boston, MA 02108

Printed in the United States of Americaby Allen Press, Inc., Lawrence, KS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface.v

List of Contributorsvi

Part I.

Chapter

Joanne Simpson's Career

The Research of Dr. Joanne Simpson: Fifty Years Investigating Hurricanes,Tropical Clouds, and Cloud Systems

-W.-K. TAO, J. HALVERSON, M. LEMoNE, R. ADLER,M. GARSTANG, R. HOUZE JR., R. PIELKE SR., AND W. WOODLEY

Chapter 2. Joanne Simpson: An Ideal Model of Mentorship-ROGER A. PIELKE SR. """" 17

Part II.

Chapter 3

Cloud Systems-Observations

What We Have Learned about Field Programs-MARGARET A. LEMoNE 25

Chapter 4. From Hot Towers to TRMM: Joanne Simpson and Advances in TropicalConvection Research

-ROBERTA. HoUZE JR. 37Chapter 5. Some Views on "Hot Towers" after 50 Years of Tropical Field Programs and

Two Years of TRMM Data-EDWARD J. ZIPSER 49

Chapter 6.

59

Chapter 7.

Spaceborne Inferences of Cloud Microstructure and Precipitation Processes:

Synthesis, Insights, and Implications

-DANIEL ROSENFELD AND WILLIAM L. WOODLEY Isotopic Variations and Internal Storm Dynamics in the Amazon Basin

-ISABELLA ANGELINI, MICHAEL GARSTANG, STEPHEN MACKO,

ROBERT SWAP, DEREK STEWART, AND HILLANDIA B. CUNHA.. 81

Part III. Cloud Systems-Modeling

Chapter 8. Cloud Models: Their Evolution and Future Challenges-WILLIAMR.COlTON 95

Chapter 9. Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model: Application for UnderstandingPrecipitation Processes

-WEI-KuoTAO

Part IV. Hurricanes

Chapter 10. Hot Towers and Hurricanes: Early Observations, Theories, and Models-RICHARDA.ANTHES

Chapter On the Transverse Circulation of the Hurricane-WILLIAM M. GRAY

Chapter 12. Some Aspects of Midlevel Vortex Interaction in Tropical Cyclogenesis-ELIZABETHA. RITCHIE 165

METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VOL. 29, No. 51

Part V,

Chapter 13.

TRMM-History and Management

My View of the Early History of TRMM and Dr. Joanne Simpson's Key Role inWinning Mission Approval

-JOHNS. THEON 175

Chapter 14. Dr. Joanne Simpson and the Beginning of the TRMM Project-TOM KEATING 181

Chapter 15 Working with Dr. Joanne Simpson while Managing the TRMM Project-THOMAS LA VIGNA 183

Part VI. TRMM-Science Aspects

A Short History of the TRMM Precipitation Radar-KEN' ICHI OKAMOTO

Chapter 16.187

Chapter 17 The TRMM Measurement Concept-THOMAS WILHEIT . 197

Chapter 18.201

GATE and TRMM-GERALD R. NORTH

Chapter 19.

207

Chapter 20.

Performance Evaluation of Level-2 TRMM Rain Profile Algorithms by

Intercomparison and Hypothesis Testing

-ERIC A. SMITH AND THROY D. HOLLIS. Status of TRMM Monthly Estimates of Tropical Precipitation

-ROBERT E ADLER, CHRISTIAN KUMMEROW, DAVID BOLVIN,

SCOTTCURTIS,ANDCHRIsKiDD 223

CHAPTER 2 PIELKE

Chapter 2

Joanne Simpson: An Ideal Model of Mentorship

ROGER A. PIELKE JR.

Department of Atmospheric Science. Colorado State University. Fort Collins. Colorado

ABSTRACTThe role of cumulus clouds in local, regional, and global weather and climate that is understood today is

based to a large extent on the pioneering work of Joanne Simpson. Her involvement in this work is illustratedthrough the experiences as my career developed. She also was, and is, an ideal model of mentorship. This paperillustrates this model using my interactions during the 1970s and early 1980s. and how they have influencedresearch articles up to the present.

1. Experimental Meteorology Lab Years

In 1971, Dr. Simpson was director of the Experi-mental Meteorology Laboratory (EML) when I joinedas a graduate student.! Her original papers (Stem andMalkus 1953, Ma1kus and Stem 1953) provided a frame-work to develop a sea-breeze numerical model and toapply this tool to better understand mesoscale and cu-mulus dynamics in south Florida. Figure 1 from herwork demonstrates the concept of the "equivalentmountain," which results from surface heating of land(Fig. 2.1) Air is lifted, as a result, as it passes over theland. This provided an original explanation of why cu-mulus clouds preferentially develop over and downwardof tropical islands even in the absence of topographicalrelief. Figure 2.2 illustrates this preference for rainshowers downwind of such islands (in this case GrandBahama, Eleuthera, and Andros Islands in the Bahamas,where the large-scale wind is southeasterly). WhenJoanne's work was performed, such direct observationsof cloud fields were not available.

Since computers were available in the early 1970s,EML provided resources to construct a model of the seabreezes. Fortunately, the computer was sufficient to runa three-dimensional model of the sea breezes over southFlorida. Using 11-km horizontal grid intervals over a33 X 36 grid mesh with seven vertical levels, the modeljust fit on a CDC 6600 computer at the National Me-teorological Center [NMC; now called the NationalCenters for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)]. Giventhe restraint on access to the computer and its compar-

I Dr. Bill Cotton, a graduate student when I first met him (and

shared an office) at Penn State in 1968, had been previously hiredby Joanne, and recommended me for a two-year tour of duty tocomplete my Ph.D. My personal and professional interactions withBill continue to this day at Colorado State University.

ative slowness, only one hour of simulation was possibleeach day. Ten hours of simulated time required ten days!

Dr. Simpson, however, felt strongly that students andresearch staff should not just be theoretical modelers.They need to also experience real weather. For this rea-son opportunities were provided for my participation inthe Florida Area Cumulus Experiment (FACE; Simpsonand Woodley 1975; Biondini et al. 1977; Woodley etal. 1977; see Fig. 2.3 for a caricature I drew duringFACE). This experiment involved randomized cumuluscloud seeding (Simpson 1977). As part of Joanne's men-torship, I flew on several FACE cloud seeding experi-ments, both with the seeding aircraft and in a separateaircraft that often flew at just a few hundred feet abovethe ground! I was also permitted (and encouraged) tofly a hurricane Storm Fury flight (into Ginger in 1971).

This ability to participate in a variety of researchprograms was facilitated by the leadership of the gov-ernment agencies that managed the weather researchgroups (the National Hurricane Research Lab and EML)and the National Weather Service [National HurricaneCenter (NHC)]. These groups were collocated in a singlemultistory building (Fig. 2.4) with the Department ofAtmospheric Sciences at the University of Miami inCoral Gables, Florida. This vertical linkage permitted afree exchange among academic, research, and opera-tional weather communities.

This exposure to operational weather, which was per-mitted by the perceptive leadership of Joanne's husband,Dr. Robert H. Simpson, allowed researchers to experi-ence the cold reality of making actual forecasts thataffected lives and properties. We were permitted towatch NHC forecasters prepare hurricane watches andwarnings, which allowed us to better relate our studiesto actual public need.

Joanne is an observational meteorologist, as well as

17

18 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VOL. 29, No. 51

FIG. 2.1. Equivalent mountain for Nantucket Island on 9 Aug 1950 [case 3 studied by Malkus and Bunker(1952)]. Observed temperature profile along ground, 7"(x), is given by the heavy solid line. Heating functionalong the ground divided by specific heat at constant pressure, Volcp, was calculated from observed surfacevalues of VaT'lax and is shown by the dashed line. Extent of island is indicated by the hatched region (fromStern and Malkus 1953).

a modeler. She provided resources to instrument 10 lo-cations across south Florida with recording surfaceweather stations. Made by MRI Inc., these stations,which archived data on strip charts, were among thefirst applications of such portable automated weatherstations. Such exposure of a student to real data helpsestablish a reality check when developing theoreticalmodels. Figure 2.5 illustrates one of these observationalplatforms. The data from these mechanical weather sta-

tions, and from a set of volunteer observers that wererecruited for FACE, resulted in several papers (Pielkeand Cotton 1977; Pielke and Mahrer 1978). Among theresults found was the prominent role of sea-breeze hor-izontal wind convergence in establishing favorable en-vironments for thunderstorms and their merger. An ex-ample of observed and modeled winds across the east-west cross section that contained the MRI sites is dis-played in Fig. 2.6. The wind convergence locally in-creased convective available potential energy (CAPE)

FIG. 2.2. Radar echo coverage at 1901 UTC 19 Aug 1971 as seenby the Miami WSR-S7 10-cm radar (from Pielke 1974).

FIG. 2.3. Caricature drawn by R. A. Pielke during FACE ofparticipants, including Joanne Simpson.

CHAPTER 2 PIELKE 19

FIG. 2.4. Pholograph of the building that hou!;ed the National Hur-ricane Re!;earch Lab, EML, and the National Weather Service at theUniversity of Miami in Coral Gables, FL.

FIG. 2.5. Photograph of one of the MRI, Inc., weather stations (inthe J. W. Corbett Wildlife Refuge west of the West Palm Beach, FL),which included a tipping bucket rain gauge, cup anemometer, windvane, and a temperature sensor.

and physically moved cumulus clouds toward each oth-er. As discussed in Simpson et al. (1980), Wescott(1994), and more recently in Simpson et al. (1993),merged cumulus clouds rain much more than the in-dividual clouds would separately. This concept of cu-mulus cloud merger originated from Joanne's dynamiccloud seeding hypothesis (Cotton and Pielke 1995) andis an important reason for the high correlation betweensea-breeze convergence zones and thunderstorms (Ulan-ski and Garstang 1978a,b; Cooper et al. 1982; Pielke etal. 1991; Garstang and Fitzgerald 1999; see also Fig.2.7).

~IIi!II.

a facilitator for student research, rather than a manager.Students who graduate from such a program benefitgreatly from this combination of science exposure andcollegial interaction. Among the major achievementswas one of the first soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer(SV AT) schemes that formed part of Mike McCumber'sPh.D. dissertation (McCumber 1980; McCumber andPielke 1981).

An essential component of Joanne's leadership ethicwas her treatment of support staff. Always requiringexcellence, she still treated each person as an individual.They were as much a part of the research team as thescientific staff.

It was during these years that my professional asso-ciation with Robert Simpson deepened. He was (and is)a source of strength for Joanne and is also an outstandingscientist on his own. I may be the only person who hasseparately published papers with both Simpsons.2 Thisinvolvement with Bob also resulted in my involvementwith both of them in the Typhoon Moderation (TY-MOD) Project, which discussed the possibility of cloudseeding western Pacific typhoons (Simpson et al. 1978).

3. Subsequent years

After I left the University of Virginia, my researchcontinued to be greatly influenced by Joanne's pio-neering work. At Colorado State University, a new mod-eling system was developed that built on the EML sea-breeze model and the model developed independentlyby Bill Cotton. This new model was called the Regional

2. The University of Virginia years

As part of Joanne's position at the Center for Ad-vanced Studies at the University of Virginia, I was hiredas an assistant professor of environmental sciences in1974. In this capacity, she continued to mentor my re-search and to aid in the development of an academicprogram. Among her major efforts was the recruitmentof Dr. Ytzhaq Mahrer of the University of Jerusalem inRehovot. This was a fruitful collaboration that permittedadditional developments of the EML sea-breeze modelto include topography (Mahrer and Pielke 1975, 1976)and improved computational solution techniques (Mah-rer and Pielke 1978). Professor Mike Garstang and Ialso met during this time period, and developed a closeresearch collaboration (e.g., see Pielke et al. 1987).Joanne was responsible for bringing Mike and I together,where, as an experimentalist and a numerical modeler,we were able to successfully pool our different exper-tise. This was another example of where Joanne rec-ognized the need for combined observational and mod-eling studies.

In my role as an assistant professor and later associateprofessor, I adopted Joanne's philosophy of serving as 2 My paper with Robert Simpson was Simpson and Pielke (1976).

20 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VOL. 29, No. 51

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CHAPTER 2 PIELKE 21

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Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS; Pielke et al.1992).3

My interest in hurricanes was intensified as a resultof my collaboration with both Joanne and Bob. Thus itwas natural that we would apply RAMS to simulatethese tropical cyclones. We chose Hurricane Andrew(1992) since its intensification was underforecast and itmade landfall over the same area in southern Dade

W .'ST'.. 'T, -LL ~U.,.., 'T-;- "STO" 'T' -LL E

FIG. 2.8. Schematic illustration of asymmetry in eye structure whentropical easterly current has pronounced negative shear. The velocitiesgiven by the arrows illustrate a hypothetical set of winds (coordinatesfixed to ground) resulting when a storm circulation with inflow atlow levels and outflow aloft is superposed on a trade current of 10m S-I at the ground decreasing to 2 m S-I in the stratosphere (fromMalkus 1958).

County, Florida, where I lived while working at EML.Our explicit modeling of deep thunderstorms in the eye-wall and in the spiral bands of a hurricane (using hor-izontal grid increments of 5 km) was the key to properlysimulating intensification of Andrew (Eastman et al.1996). Such high spatial resolution is needed to accu-rately evacuate mass from the eyewall region. This wasthe first simulation of a specific hurricane with explicitmicrophysics at such fine spatial resolution.

The early observational papers by the Simpsons pro-vided an essential assessment of the credibility of ourhurricane model results. Malkus (1958), for example,provides an observed characterization of eyewall-eyedynamics, such as the influence of large-scale environ-mental shear (Fig. 2.8). In Nicholls and Pielke (1995),we investigated, using RAMS, the importance of windshear associated with idealized hurricanes. Among ourconclusions is that weak vertical wind shear can actuallyenhance the ability of a hurricane to intensify. Figure2.9 illustrates the eye and eyewall structure as modeledby RAMS for a mature hurricane (Pielke and Pielke1997, p. 78). Pielke (1990) used the Robert Simpsondecision tree for hurricane development and intensifi-cation to illustrate the forecast procedure for these twoaspects of tropical cyclones. In Pielke and Pielke (1997)we referred to several early papers by Bob (Simpson1946; 1954; 1971; Simpson and Riehl 1981) that con-tinue to provide a fundamental basis for prediction re-search.

On the global scale, the Riehl and Malkus (1958)paper is a major landmark in the study of the energyand water budget of the earth's atmosphere. The concept

3 Cotton summarizes the RAMS development and lists a spectrum

of papers which resulted from the application of this modeling toolin chapter 8 of this monograph.

22 METEOROLOGICAL MONOGRAPHS VOL. 29, No.5]

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ilarly affect higher latitudes. Pitman and Zhao (2000)and Pitman et al. (1999) confirm the major role of land-use change affecting the Hadley circulation, and higherlatitude weather. In one of my numerous fruitful col-laborations with Bill Cotton, we published Cotton andPielke (1995), where we connected our experiences as-sociated with weather modification studies at EML withthe current overselling of the ability to predict futureclimate. Land-use change was one of the issues that weused to illustrate that climate predictability inherentlymay be more limited than has been traditionally thought.

The role of the hot towers is critical to this human-caused climate sensitivity. Even though the location ofthe hot towers covers only a relatively small percentageof the earth's surface, large climate change effects canoccur! This overlooked climate change issue is built onJoanne's early pioneering work.

of undilute ascent in thunderstorms in the intertropicalconvergence zone, as one segment in the Hadley cir-culation, revolutionized the concept of how the atmo-sphere transfers mass and energy. The Riehl and Malkusstudy indicated that between 1500 and 5000 active un-dilute cumulus convective towers (i.e., "hot towers")are all that is needed for the equatorial side of the ver-tical transport associated with the Hadley circulation.Satellite images that subsequently became availableconfirmed this hypothesis and illustrate that mass andenergy are transported poleward within high upper-tro-pospheric jet streams, which are referred to as subtrop-ical jets. These jets are an effective mechanism for long-distance rapid communication of weather, a concept re-ferred to as teleconnection.

This fundamental work is the basis for the conclusionsof Chase et al. (1996, 2000) that tropical land-usechange can alter the patterning of where these hot towersoccur. Deforestation results in a drying and warming,such that cumulonimbus convection tends to occur moreover nondeforested regions and over tropical ocean ar-eas. This pattern shift results in alterations in the tele-connections with higher latitudes, such that weather pat-terns may be permanently changed. ENSO events,which also affect the patterning of thunderstorms, sim-

4. ConclusionsThe richness of Joanne Simpson's research accom-

plishments are best appreciated by tracking our currentknowledge of the atmosphere to where these conceptswere first discussed in the peer-reviewed literature. Herbreadth of contribution is impressive and ranges from

CHAPTER 2 PIELK

23

the cumulus cloud to global scale. Early in her career,she recognized the critical role of cumulus clouds in theearth's atmosphere, and now she continues to build onher innovative and broad expertise in such programs asthe Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM;Kummerow et al. 1998) and the Tropical Ocean GlobalAtmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Ex-periment (TOGA COARE; Halverson et al. 1999).When one uncovers the origin of many of our most basicconcepts in atmospheric science, it is quite impressivehow much of this knowledge is founded in her originalwork!

Finally, while completing pioneering research results,she also recognized the need to mentor the next gen-eration of scientists. Her sacrifices are candidly sum-marized in Simpson (1973), a publication that was alsoextremely informative concerning the prejudices againstwomen in science. Joanne's publication has sensitizedmany men to this obstacle.

Joanne's career has spanned all aspects of our pro-fession, from research and mentorship to teaching andservice. Her guidance as American Meteorological So-ciety publication commissioner and scientific and tech-nological activities commissioner and president has ef-fectively led the society to its current very high levelof achievement. She was also involved with RobertSimpson in setting up a private company (SimpsonWeather Associates), which transfers research knowl-edge to help solve real-world problems. This respon-sibility of university professors is not widely recog-nized, yet this is a prime mechanism that can be usedto interface with societal needs.

All the best to Joanne on an extremely valuable careerthat is still continuing full throttle!

Acknowledgments. This paper was prepared as partof an invited contribution to celebrate Joanne Simpson'scareer. The oral version was presented at the Symposiumon Cloud Systems, Hurricanes and TRMM: Celebrationof Dr. Joanne Simpson's Career-The First Fifty Years.Dallas Staley and Michelle McClaren ably handled thetyping and the editing of the contribution.

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Biondini, R., J. S. Simpson, and W. Woodley, 1977: Empirical pre-dictors for natural and seeded rainfall in the Florida Area Cu-mulus Experiment (FACE) 1970-1975. J. Appl. Meteor., 16, 12-97.

Chase, T. N., R. A. Pielke, T. G. F. Kittel, R. Nemani, and S. W.Running, 1996: The sensitivity of a general circulation modelto global changes in leaf area index. J. Geophys. Res., 101,7393-7408.

Eastman, J. L., M. E. Nicholls, and R. A. Pielke, 1996: A numericalsimulation of Hurricane Andrew. Presented at Second Interna-tional Symposium ,m Computational Wind EnKineerinK. FortCollins, CO. Japan Association for Wind Engineering and theU.S. Wind Engineering Research Council.

Garstang, M., and D. R. Fitzjarrald, 1999: Observations of Surfaceto Atmo.vphere Interaction.v in the Tropics. Oxford UniversityPress, 405 pp.

Halverson, J., B. S. Ferrier, T. M. Rickenbach, J. Simpson. and W.-K. Tao, 1999: An ensemble of convective systems on II Feb-ruary 1993 during TOGA COARE: Morphology, rainfall char-acteristics. and anvil cloud interactions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127,1208-1228.

Kummerow, C., W. Barnes, T. Kozu. J. Shuie, and J. S. Simpson,1998: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensorpackage. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol.. 15,809-8]7.

Mahrer, Y., and R. A. Pielke, 1975: The numerical study of the airflow over mountains using the University of Virginia mesoscalemodel. J. Atmos. Sci.. 32, 2144-2155.

-, and -, ]976: The numerical simulation of the airflow overBarbados. Mon. Wea. Rev.. 104, ]392-1402.

-, and -, 1978: The meteorological effect of the changes insurface albedo and moisture. Isr. Meteor. Res. Pap., 2,55-70.

Malkus, J. S., 1958: On the structure and maintenance of the maturehurricane eye. J. Meteor.. 15, 337-349.

-, and A. Bunker, 1952: Observational Studies of the Air Flowover Nantucket Island during the Summer of 1950. Papers inPhysical Oceanography and Meteorology, No. 12, MassachusettsInstitute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Insti-tution, 50 pp.

-, and M. Stern, 1953: The flow of a stable atmosphere over aheated island, Part I. J. Meteor., 10,30-41,

McCumber, M., 1980: A numerical simulation of the influence ofheat and moisture fluxes upon mesoscale circulations. Ph.D. dis-sertation, University of Virginia, 255 pp.

-, and R. A. Pielke, 1981: Simulation of the effects of surfacefluxes of heat and moisture in a mesoscale numerical model-Part I: Soil layer. J. Geophys. Res., 86, 9929-9938.

Nicholls, M. E., and R. A. Pielke, 1995: A numerical investigationof the effect of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone inten-sification. Preprints, 21st Can! on Hurricanes and Tropical Me-teorology. Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 339-341.

Pielke, R. A., 1974: A three-dimensional numerical model of the seabreezes over south Florida. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 115-139.

-, 1990: The Hurricane. Routledge Press, 228 pp.-, and W. R. Cotton, 1977: A mesoscale analysis over south Flor-

ida for a high rainfall event. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 343-362.-, and Y. Mahrer, 1978: Verification analysis of the University of

Virginia three-dimensional mesoscale model prediction oversouth Florida for I July 1973. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 1568-1589.

-, and R. A. Pielke Sr., 1997: Hurricanes: Their Nature andImpacts on Society. John Wiley and Sons, 279 pp.

-, M. Garstang, C. Lindsey, and J. Gudsorf, 1987: Use of a syn-optic classification scheme to define seasons. Theor. Appl. Cli-matol., 38, 57-68.

-, A. Song, P. J. Michaels, W. A. Lyons, and R. W. Arritt, 1991:The predictability of sea-breeze generated thunderstorms. At-

mosfera. 4,65-78.-, and Coauthors, 1992: A comprehensive meteorological mod-

eling system-RAMS. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 49,69-91.Pitman, A. J., and M. Zhao, 2000: The relative impact of observed

change in land cover and carbon dioxide as simulated by a cli-mate model. Geophys. Res. Lett.. 27, 1267-1270.

-, R. Pielke, R. Avissar, M. Claussen, J. Gash, and H. Dolman,1999: The role of the land surface in weather and climate: Doesthe land surface matter? IGBP Newslett., 39,4-11.

Riehl, H., and J. S. Malkus, 1958: On the heat balance in the equatorialtrough zone. Geophysica, 6, 503-535.

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-, -, -, -, and -, 2000: Simulated impacts of his-toricalland cover changes on global climate in northern winter.Climate Dyn.. 16,93-105.

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-, and W. L. Woodley, 1975: Florida Area Cumulus Experiments1970-1975 rainfall results. J. Appl. Meteor.. 14,734-744.

-, N. E. Westcott, R. J. Clerman, and R. A. Pielke, 1979: Oncumulus mergers. Arch. Meteor. Geophys. Bioklim.. 29A, 1-40.

-, Th. D. Keenan, B. Ferrier, R. H. Simpson, and G. J. Holland,1993: Cumulus mergers in the maritime continent region. Me-teor. Atmos. Phys., 51, 73-99.

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-, 1954: Hurricanes. Sci. Amer.. 190,32-37.-, 1971: The decision process in hurricane forecasting. NOAA

Tech. Memo. NWS SR-53, Fort Worth, TX, 35 pp.

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-, and Coauthors, 1978: TYMOD: Typhoon Moderation. VirginiaTechnology, Inc. Final report for PAGASA, Republic of the Phil-ippines.

Stern, M., and J. S. Malkus, 1953: The flow of a stable atmosphereover a heated island, Part II. J. Meteor., 10, 105-120.

Ulan ski, S., and M. Garstang, 1978a: The role of surface divergenceand vorticity in the lifecycle of convective rainfall. Part I: Ob-servation and analysis. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 1047-1062.

-, and -, 1978b: The role of surface divergence and vorticityin the lifecycle of convective rainfall. Part II: Descriptive model.J. Armos. Sci., 35, 1063-1069.

Wescott, N. E., 1994: Merging of convective clouds: Cloud initiation,bridging, and subsequent growth. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 780-790.

Woodley, W. L., and Cumulus Group, 1977: Rainfall results, 1970-1975: Florida Area Cumulus Experiment (FACE). Science, 195,735-742.