Enhancing climate knowledge to improve adaptation to climate variability and change

Climate Knowledgefor Adaptation and Sustainable Development

WorldMeteorological

Organization

Abstracts for theWMO Side Event

1 December 2005Palais des Congrès

de Montreal

The United NationsClimate Change

Conference

28 November9 December 2005

2005

Climate Knowledgefor Adaptation and Sustainable Development

WMO-No. 994 Enhancing climate knowledge to improve adaptation to climate variability and change

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WMO-No. 994© 2005, World Meteorological OrganizationISBN 92-63-10994-X

NOTEThe designations employed and the presentation ofmaterial in this publication do not imply the expression ofany opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of theWorld Meteorological Organization concerning the legalstatus of any country, territory, city or area, or of itsauthorities, or concerning the delimitations of its frontiersor boundaries.

Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

WMO, NMHSs and the United Nations Climate Change Conference . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Integrated Observing System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Climate data and monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Climate research, modelling and prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Climate knowledge for adaptation and sustainable development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Capacity-building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Climate Applications, Information and Prediction Services for decision-making . . 14

Future development/strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

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CONTENTS

There is now strong scientific evidence thatthe earth’s climate system has changed onboth global and regional scales since thepre-industrial era, and that some of thesechanges are attributable to human activi-ties. Higher atmospheric concentrations ofgreenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols duemainly to human activities have resulted inincreased global average temperatures ofabout 0.6 ± 0.2˚C since the late nineteenthcentury, land areas warming more than theoceans, and the 1990s being the warmestdecade of the twentieth century.

Available observational evidence indicatesthat regional changes in climate, particu-larly temperature increases, have already

affected diverse sets of physical andbiological systems in many parts of theworld, including human systems. Examplesof observed changes include the shrinkingof glaciers, thawing of permafrost, laterfreezing and earlier break-up of ice on riversand lakes, lengthening of mid- to high-latitude growing seasons, poleward andaltitudinal shift of plant and animal rangesand decline of some plant and animalpopulations. These changes pose manychallenges to international and nationalsustainable development agendas.

The role of National Meteorological andHydrological Services (NMHSs) is funda-mental in addressing these challenges.Reliable weather, climate and hydrologicalproducts and services are crucial for thesuccessful formulation and implementationof adaptive policies and measures torespond to climate variability and change, inparticular climate extremes.

WMO has been instrumental in facilitatingand coordinating the contribution ofNMHSs, regional and subregional meteoro-logical and hydrological institutions toassist Parties to the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) in fulfilling their obligationsunder the Convention, supporting the workof the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC), and other related interna-tional agreements such as the 2005 WorldSummit.

On this landmark occasion of the eleventhsession of the Conference of the Parties(COP11) to the UNFCCC and the first sessionof the Conference of the Parties serving asthe meeting of the Parties to the KyotoProtocol (COP/MOP1), this brochure aims atproviding all stakeholders with information

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FOREWORD

on how climate knowledge is used forenhancing adaptation to climate variabilityand change. Hence the theme for thebrochure is ‘Enhancing climate knowledgeto improve adaptation to climate variabilityand change’. The brochure highlights thereal-life experience of NMHSs and collabo-rating organizations and institutions inseveral parts of the world in utilizing climateknowledge to formulate and implementappropriate adaptive response policies forclimate extremes.

For those Parties who have not yet fullyutilized the services of WMO, NMHSs andcollaborating partners in their adaptation toclimate variability and change decision-

making process, the information containedin this brochure should provide an incentiveto do so. For those already using these serv-ices, this document should help remind usthat enhancing climate knowledge toimprove adaptation strategies and achievesustainable development is an ongoing, life-time endeavour.

(M. Jarraud)Secretary-General

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Introduction

Climate and weather impact both naturaland human systems, which are influencedby climate variability and change on differ-ent temporal and spatial scales. The abilityof human and natural systems to success-fully respond and adapt to the adverseimpacts of climate variability and change is

determined by a number of factors. Theseinclude access to the right climate informa-tion, capability to use the information andincorporate it in mainstream decision-making where sensitivity to climatevariability and change is but one amongmany factors to consider.

There is growing recognition that address-ing climate variability and change throughstabilization of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere at a level that would preventdangerous interference with the naturalclimate system, as stipulated under Article 2of the UNFCCC, should no longer be theonly focus of ongoing international effortsto address the problem. Three factors are atthe core of this emerging recognition.Societies are becoming increasingly inter-dependent, the climate system is changing

rapidly and losses associated with climateextremes are rising. The internationalcommunity has recognized that adaptationis a necessary strategy on all scales tocomplement mitigation efforts. Together,they can help achieve sustainable develop-ment objectives.

The main aim of this brochure is tocontribute to the emerging debate on adap-tation to climate variability and change andsustainable development. Specifically, thebrochure provides Parties attending COP11and COP/MOP1 with information on theactivities carried out by WMO, NMHSs andpartners to mainstream climate knowledgeinto adaptation and sustainable develop-ment decision-making. It also contributes toongoing efforts to foster a common, coordi-nated response by the United Nationssystem to climate variability and change, inthe light of the 2005 World Summit and anumber of newly emerging initiatives andpartnerships such as the 2005 G8Gleneagles Summit to advance the interna-tional Climate Agenda.

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Examples of the rangeof climate and climaterelated hazards ondifferent temporal andspatial scales that aremonitored, detectedand forecast by theNationalMeteorological andHydrological Servicesunder the aegis ofWMO.

WMO, NMHSs and the United NationsClimate Change Conference

The United Nations Climate ChangeConference is a historical event: the Partiesto the UNFCCC are meeting for the eleventhtime; 2005 marks the entry into force of theKyoto Protocol; and the conference will bethe first meeting of COP/MOP1.

Key issues related to adaptation andsustainable development on the agendainclude;

• Capacity building under the KyotoProtocol

• Adaptation Fund

• Implementation of the Buenos Airesprogramme of work on adaptation

• Capacity building for developing coun-tries (non-Annex I Parties) under theUNFCCC

• Special needs of Least DevelopedCountries (LDC)

• Implementation of the Global ClimateObserving System (GCOS)

• Development and transfer of technolo-gies

• Assessment of funding to assist devel-oping countries in fulfilling theircommitments under the UNFCCC, and

• Continuation of activities implementedjointly under the joint implementationpilot phase.

The successful elaboration and implementa-tion of decisions relating to the above issuesby the Conference, will greatly benefit fromthe on-going work of WMO, NMHSs, andpartners, whose activities, coordinatedunder the international Climate Agenda, fallunder four fundamental areas:

• Climate observations;

• Climate data management and dataexchange;

• Climate research, modelling and predic-tions;

• Climate products and services;

• Capacity-building, education and train-ing services spanning various aspectsof the above four areas.

The goal of the international ClimateAgenda is to foster global cooperation inproviding an authoritative internationalscientific voice on climate variability andchange, and to assist societies in the appli-cation of climate information andknowledge to national sustainable develop-ment.

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Maintaining publicsafety, health, welfareand povertyalleviation are keyobjectives of thework of WMO,NationalMeteorological andHydrological Servicesand partners

The Climate Agenda is an integrating andcatalytic agent for initiating and coordinat-ing activities in the areas of data collection,research, applications and training. It alsosupports the provision of authoritativeassessments on climate science, social andeconomic impacts and possible mitigationand adaptative response strategies forclimate variability and change, especiallythrough the work of the IPCC. Such assess-

ments provide the scientific and technicalbasis for adopting national and internationalresponse policies and measures within theUnited Nations multilateral environmentalagreements aimed at the implementation ofinternational and national sustainabledevelopment agendas. It also providescrucial support to enable individualMembers of the United Nations to fulfilltheir commitments under these multilateralagreements and conventions.

As the climate system continues to change,there is an urgent need to further enhanceclimate monitoring and assessment as wellas climate change prediction skills. Thebuilding of appropriate adaptation andvulnerability assessment capacities, particu-larly in developing countries, is also a majoremerging priority. Sound scientific knowl-edge, well-supported global climatemonitoring and ongoing climate researchare fundamental in designing new interna-tional agreements to support the work ofthe UNFCCC.

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Powerful new computers such as the Earth Simulatorin Japan will make possible major advances inclimate modelling(Courtesy: Earth Simulator Center/JAMSTEC

(Courtesy: UK Hadley Center )

Temperature trends over the last 30 years (1973-2002)(Courtesy: Jones and Parker observed dataset)

Integrated Observing System

Climate monitoring is vital to further advanceour understanding of the complexity of theclimate system and its predictability. WMO’sIntegrated Global Observing System (WMO-IOS) comprises complex observing networksin space, in the atmosphere, on land and atsea. The data and associated climateinformation that are collected anddisseminated to users, keep all stakeholders

informed of the state of the climate and thenatural environment. Observationsprogrammes such as the Global ClimateObserving System (GCOS) and the GlobalOcean Observing System (GOOS) willcontinue to play a major role in collecting therequired data for the development of climateinformation and prediction services, and willthus be important components of the GlobalEarth Observing System of Systems(GEOSS).

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WMO’s basic systems.

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Climate data and monitoring

Understanding the predictability of individ-ual components of the climate systemmakes it possible to address the predictabil-ity of the total climate system. This can onlybe achieved through sustained developmentof comprehensive, dedicated global observ-ing and climate data management systems.Furthermore, the collection of high-qualitydata from existing observing systems iscrucial for uses in modelling climateprocesses, detecting human-induced climatechange, monitoring climate variability,developing climate applications and servicesand addressing the adverse impacts ofclimate on natural and human systems. TheWMO Statement on the Status of the GlobalClimate, which provides annual scientificinformation on the status of the globalclimate and its variability and the US NOAAcompilation of significant climate anomaliesand weather events in 2004, are examples ofthe numerous climate products that areproduced using data collected from globalobserving networks managed by WMO,NMHSs and their partners.

Climate research, modelling and predic-tion

Climate research, modelling and predictionhave been, and will continue to be at theforefront of international efforts to advanceknowledge in the accuracy and skills ofseasonal and interannual and possiblydecadal climate predictions and the effects

of human activities on the climate system.To achieve these, the international climateresearch and modelling community hasadopted a multidisciplinary approach andorganizes large-scale observational andmodelling projects, each of which focuseson aspects of climate too large and complexto be addressed by any one nation or indi-vidual scientific discipline. The TropicalOcean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) proj-ect (1985-1994), for example, establishedthe physical basis for the understanding andprediction of El Niño temperature signalsand associated changes in global climate.This led to a major breakthrough in opera-tional seasonal climate forecasting.

The World Ocean Circulation Experiment(WOCE) (1982-2002), arguably the biggestand most successful global ocean research

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ENSO forecasts, such as this one for the 1997/1998 event, have becomepossible through intensive research efforts in the field of seasonalpredictions. The various colours represent multiple model runs(forecasts) initiated at different times of the year (Courtesy ECMWF)

Southern and Eastern U.S.Wetter than average.9 landfalling tropicalsystems.

EuropeWidespreadabove averageannual temperatures (+1°C).

Hurricane FrancesCategory 2 at landfall.Extensive flooding in southern AppalachianMountains.

Hurricane JeanneCategory 3 at landfall.Over 3 000 liveslost in Haiti.

Atlantic hurricane season Above-average activity15 named storms; 9 hurricanes;6 ‘major’. 8 tropical storms inAugust—most named stormsfor any August on record.

Alaska/Yukon wildfiresRecord area burned (2.6 million hectares) in Alaska.

Neutral ENSO transitions into weak El Niño in late boreal summer and autumn.

AlaskaRecord warm May, June, July, August.

Somalia, KenyaDespite good “long rains” in Somalia, long-term drought remains. Only 50% of normal rainfall for south-eastern Kenya over last 2 years.

Tropical Cyclone Elita Affected Madagascar making two separate landfalls. 29 people killed, tens of thousands homeless.

Tropical Cyclone Gafilo Strongest cyclone to hit Madagascar in 10 years. Winds at 260 km/hr at landfall.

Northern hemisphere snow cover extent largest since 1985 for January; 5th lowest in 38 years for March.

Antarctic ozone hole less extensive than the 10-year mean. Less than 20 million km2 in size.

Hurricane IvanReached category 5 in theCaribbean. 210 km/hr at landfall. Massive destructionin Grenada as it passedover the island.

East Pacific hurricane seasonBelow average activity.12 named storms; 6 hurricanes. Indian monsoon rainfall

87% of normal overall. Maximum regional deficit in north-west India with 22% less than average.

Peru, Chile, ArgentinaSevere cold and snow during June and July.

Typhoon TokageDeadliest typhoon to strike Japan since 1979; 94 deaths. 10th cyclone to make landfall in Japan during 2004 season; produced a record 24-meter high wave.

Typhoons:

ChinaFlooding inSichuan Provincein September.196 people killed.

South-east ChinaDrought is one ofthe worst in 50 years.Drinking water supplies threatened.

AfghanistanLong-term droughtcontinued. DryMarch–April season.

IndiaSevere heatwavein March. More than100 deaths.

Western U.S.Continuation ofmulti-year droughtconditions, somerelief in autumn.

IndiaMonsoon-related floodiongJune–October. Millions of residentsdisplaced in Assam, Bihar andBangladesh. Worstflooding in 15 years.

TonadoesRecord year fortornadoes. Mostlya result of tropicalsystems.

Central andNorth-east U.S.Much colder-than-average summer.

CanadaRecord cold summer ineastern Prairies, record summerheat on west coast.

North America8th largest snow coverextent in 38 years for October.

Africa ITCZAverage annual ITCZclose to long-termmean position.

Western Asia, MongoliaAnnual warmth, anomalies 2–3°C.

Spain, PortugalHeatwave in Juneand July withmaximum temperaturesreaching 40°C.

Above-average activity in the West Pacific;29 named storms and 19 typhoons.

Record number of tropical cyclones (10, previous record 6) made landfall in Japan.

AustraliaIntense and widespread heatwave during February. Many city records broken. Long-term drought remains in southern and eastern Australia.

BrazilWet December–February. Major floodingin January in Brazil’snorth-eastern states.

Hurricane CharleyStrongest hurricane toimpact the U.S. sinceHurricane Andrew in 1992.

Tasmania2nd wettest January since 1900.

Tropical Cyclone HetaFirst cyclone to impact Samoa in a decade.

Strong winter storms in January for Pacific north-west.

Jordan, Syria, Greece, TurkeyWidespread winter storm in February. Approximately 60 cm of snow in Jordan.

South Atlantic hurricaneRare hurricane inthe South Atlanticin March. Made landfall in the state of SantaCatarina, Brazil.Maximum sustainedwinds of 120–130 km/hr.

Mexico/U.S.Severe flooding inApril along theEscondido River.

Angola, ZambiaSevere flooding in April.In Zambia, also in May.

Desertlocust invasionMay–October 2004.

Super Typhoon NidaCame ashore in the Philippines in May with sustained winds of 260 km/hr.

Typhoon RananimStrongest typhoon to affect Zhejiang Province in China since 1956. Over US$ 2 billion in damage and 169 deaths.

Super Typhoon ChabaSuper-typhoon (category 4) in the Pacific, category 1 at landfall inJapan in August; 13 deaths.

JapanWetter-than-average yearfor much of the country. Partly due to landfallingtropicalsystems.

AustraliaNorthern Territory, much wetter than average rainy season.

New ZealandHeavy rainfall and damaging floods in February.

Sea-iceBelow long-term average.September 13% below10-year mean.

PhilippinesTwo typhoons and one tropicalstorm claimed over 1 000 lives inthe Philippines in November.

denotes point of landfall.

Typhoon Ma-onStrongest typhoon to strike the greater Tokyo areain 10 years in October. Wettest October since 1876 for the city.

WMO STATEMENT ON THE STATUS OFTHE GLOBAL CLIMATE IN 2004

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W orld Meteorological OrganizationW eather • Climate • Water

WMO-No. 983

For information about WMO, please contact:

Communications and Public Affairs OfficeW orld Meteorological Organization7bis, avenue de la PaixP.O. Box 2300CH-1211 Geneva 2, SWITZERLANDTel: (+41-22) 730 83 14 / 730 83 15Fax: (+41-22) 730 80 27E-mail: cpa@wmo.intW eb: http://www.wmo.int

For more information about the contents of this brochure, please contact:

W orld Climate Programme DepartmentW orld Meteorological Organization7bis, avenue de la PaixP.O. Box 2300CH-1211 Geneva 2, SWITZERLANDTel: (+41-22) 730 83 77Fax: (+41-22) 730 80 42E-mail: wcdmp@wmo.intW eb: http://www.wmo.ch/web/wcp/wcp_prog.htm

12°C

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El Niño 1997/1998Seasonal predictions

Source: ECMWF

WMO Statement onthe status of theglobal climate systemfor 2004

programme to date, collected observationsof the world’s oceans of unprecedentedquality and coverage and led to the devel-opment of important new ocean observingtechniques and improved understanding ofphysical processes in the ocean. The ArcticClimate System Study (ACSYS) (1994-2003) is another example of a successfulclimate research project to examine thecomplex and interrelated pieces of theArctic climate system to ascertain its role inthe global climate system.

These research and modellingprogrammes have greatly improved ourunderstanding of key climate processesand resulted in significantly improvedclimate models, as well as better opera-tional weather and ocean forecastingmodels. Improved modelling of the climate

system has provided increasingly accuratesimulation and prediction of naturalclimate variations, giving more confidencein projections of human-induced climatechange. This also has provided the

11

Southern and Eastern U.S.Wetter than average.9 landfalling tropicalsystems.

EuropeWidespreadabove averageannual temperatures (+1°C).

Hurricane FrancesCategory 2 at landfall.Extensive flooding in southern AppalachianMountains.

Hurricane JeanneCategory 3 at landfall.Over 3 000 liveslost in Haiti.

Atlantic hurricane season Above-average activity15 named storms; 9 hurricanes;6 ‘major’. 8 tropical storms inAugust—most named stormsfor any August on record.

Alaska/Yukon wildfiresRecord area burned (2.6 million hectares) in Alaska.

Neutral ENSO transitions into weak El Niño in late boreal summer and autumn.

AlaskaRecord warm May, June, July, August.

Somalia, KenyaDespite good “long rains” in Somalia, long-term drought remains. Only 50% of normal rainfall for south-eastern Kenya over last 2 years.

Tropical Cyclone Elita Affected Madagascar making two separate landfalls. 29 people killed, tens of thousands homeless.

Tropical Cyclone Gafilo Strongest cyclone to hit Madagascar in 10 years. Winds at 260 km/hr at landfall.

Northern hemisphere snow cover extent largest since 1985 for January; 5th lowest in 38 years for March.

Antarctic ozone hole less extensive than the 10-year mean. Less than 20 million km2 in size.

Hurricane IvanReached category 5 in theCaribbean. 210 km/hr at landfall. Massive destructionin Grenada as it passedover the island.

East Pacific hurricane seasonBelow average activity.12 named storms; 6 hurricanes. Indian monsoon rainfall

87% of normal overall. Maximum regional deficit in north-west India with 22% less than average.

Peru, Chile, ArgentinaSevere cold and snow during June and July.

Typhoon TokageDeadliest typhoon to strike Japan since 1979; 94 deaths. 10th cyclone to make landfall in Japan during 2004 season; produced a record 24-meter high wave.

Typhoons:

ChinaFlooding inSichuan Provincein September.196 people killed.

South-east ChinaDrought is one ofthe worst in 50 years.Drinking water supplies threatened.

AfghanistanLong-term droughtcontinued. DryMarch–April season.

IndiaSevere heatwavein March. More than100 deaths.

Western U.S.Continuation ofmulti-year droughtconditions, somerelief in autumn.

IndiaMonsoon-related floodiongJune–October. Millions of residentsdisplaced in Assam, Bihar andBangladesh. Worstflooding in 15 years.

TonadoesRecord year fortornadoes. Mostlya result of tropicalsystems.

Central andNorth-east U.S.Much colder-than-average summer.

CanadaRecord cold summer ineastern Prairies, record summerheat on west coast.

North America8th largest snow coverextent in 38 years for October.

Africa ITCZAverage annual ITCZclose to long-termmean position.

Western Asia, MongoliaAnnual warmth, anomalies 2–3°C.

Spain, PortugalHeatwave in Juneand July withmaximum temperaturesreaching 40°C.

Above-average activity in the West Pacific;29 named storms and 19 typhoons.

Record number of tropical cyclones (10, previous record 6) made landfall in Japan.

AustraliaIntense and widespread heatwave during February. Many city records broken. Long-term drought remains in southern and eastern Australia.

BrazilWet December–February. Major floodingin January in Brazil’snorth-eastern states.

Hurricane CharleyStrongest hurricane toimpact the U.S. sinceHurricane Andrew in 1992.

Tasmania2nd wettest January since 1900.

Tropical Cyclone HetaFirst cyclone to impact Samoa in a decade.

Strong winter storms in January for Pacific north-west.

Jordan, Syria, Greece, TurkeyWidespread winter storm in February. Approximately 60 cm of snow in Jordan.

South Atlantic hurricaneRare hurricane inthe South Atlanticin March. Made landfall in the state of SantaCatarina, Brazil.Maximum sustainedwinds of 120–130 km/hr.

Mexico/U.S.Severe flooding inApril along theEscondido River.

Angola, ZambiaSevere flooding in April.In Zambia, also in May.

Desertlocust invasionMay–October 2004.

Super Typhoon NidaCame ashore in the Philippines in May with sustained winds of 260 km/hr.

Typhoon RananimStrongest typhoon to affect Zhejiang Province in China since 1956. Over US$ 2 billion in damage and 169 deaths.

Super Typhoon ChabaSuper-typhoon (category 4) in the Pacific, category 1 at landfall inJapan in August; 13 deaths.

JapanWetter-than-average yearfor much of the country. Partly due to landfallingtropicalsystems.

AustraliaNorthern Territory, much wetter than average rainy season.

New ZealandHeavy rainfall and damaging floods in February.

Sea-iceBelow long-term average.September 13% below10-year mean.

PhilippinesTwo typhoons and one tropicalstorm claimed over 1 000 lives inthe Philippines in November.

denotes point of landfall.

Typhoon Ma-onStrongest typhoon to strike the greater Tokyo areain 10 years in October. Wettest October since 1876 for the city.

Significant climaticanomalies andweather events in2004. (Courtesy: US NOAANational Climatic DataCenter)

scientific underpinning for each of the IPCCassessments that in turn contribute to theongoing UNFCCC negotiations to addressclimate change.

New research programmes include theanalysis and prediction of earth systemvariability and change such as seasonalprediction, monsoon prediction and sea-level rise.

Climate knowledge for adaptation andsustainable development

The use and application of climate knowl-edge and services to maintain public safety,health and welfare, to alleviate poverty andto promote sustainable development are akey objective of WMO, NMHSs and theirpartners’ activities.

Ensuring that these applications andprediction activities result in understand-able, consistent, high-quality and reliableproducts for user groups helps individuals,businesses, governments and others makeeffective decisions that maximize on thebenefits of climate, and reduce the risks ofclimate-related hazards for lives and

economies. Partnership is vital in thisregard. A model example of this partner-ship in action is the joint project betweenWMO, the Council of RegionalOrganizations in the Pacific (CROP), PacificIslands’ NMHSs and climate predictioncentres in Australia, France, New Zealandand USA in the preparation of the monthlyIsland Climate Update (ICU) bulletin. TheICU provides an overview of the presentclimate in the tropical South Pacific islandswith an outlook for the coming months toassist in the dissemination of climate infor-mation in the Pacific region.

Another example is the Agritempo(www.agritempo.br) project, coordinated bythe Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture andCampinas University Sao Paolo, EMBRAPA.The goals of the project are to reduce theeconomic losses associated with dry spellsduring the crop flowering and grain fillingphase and excessive rain during theharvesting phase. An estimated 60% and30% of crop losses respectively were attrib-uted to these two phases in 1995. Since theproject began, a 20% reduction in croplosses has been achieved, resultingin savings of over US$ 630 million.Agribusiness in Brazil accounted for 30% of

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Rainfall outlooks(October-November-December 2005) forsmall islands in thePacific region(Source: NIWAScience, NewZealand)

the GDP, bringing in around US$ 500 billionper year. It also accounted for about 30% ofjobs. Total earnings from agribusinessexports in 2003 were US$ 30 billion. Theproject has about 40 million customers.

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Climate zoning forcoffee in Brazil, agood example of theapplication of climateknowledge foradaptation tochanging climateconditions(Courtesy: BrazillianAgricultural ResearchCorporation(EMBRAPA),Campinas StateUniversity, SaoPaolo, Brazil)

Present (2005)

Capacity-building

Capacity-building, training, education andpublic awareness at all levels are key tomobilizing support for international actionto address climate change. It is imperativetherefore for the UN system to furtherstrengthen global partnerships in capacitybuilding in climate science and applications.

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs),for example, is an effective mechanism useby WMO, NMHSs and partners, for capacitybuilding at the regional level, particularly indeveloping countries. Capacity buildinginitiatives such as RCOFs should continue tobe supported under the UNFCCC and otherrelated agreements, such as the 2005 WorldSummit.

Climate Applications, Information andPrediction Services for decision-making

WMO, NMHSs and collaborating partnershave been actively promoting the use ofclimate information and prediction servicesand the practical application of this informa-tion in decision making in climate sensitivesectors, such as agriculture, food security,water resource management, humanhealth, renewable energy, urban and build-ing climatology and tourism, throughRCOFs.

The climate prediction outlooks for theGreater Horn of Africa (GHA) region for theSeptember to December 2005 period is anexample of one of the many productscoming out of RCOFs. Another product isthe Food Insecurity Outlooks for the GHAregion for the same period, September toDecember 2005.

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(Courtesy; F.Pomamret/UNV)

Future development/strategies

WMO, NMHSs and their partners recognizethe seminal role that UN agencies haveplayed in raising public awareness ofclimate matters, in particular, concernsabout human induced climate change. Thelaunching of the Climate Agenda, involvingan interagency, interdisciplinary effort of theUN, provides an authoritative, sound scien-tific base for policy makers to makeinformed decisions and formulate appropri-ate policies and measures.

WMO, NMHSs and their partners alsorecognize the important linkages betweenthe UNFCCC and other international agree-ments and conventions, such as the 2005World Summit as well as between climatevariability and change and high-prioritysocietal issues such as sustainable develop-ment, energy use, trade, and security. In thisregard, it is clear that future climate changepolicies will require integration of climate

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Zone I: Normal climate conditions over northwestern Sudan

Zone II: Increased likelihood of near-to-above-normal rainfall over northern Eritrea and the winter rainfall zone of northeastern Sudan

Zone III: Normal climate conditions over eastern Eritrea, and western Djibouti

Zone IV: Increased likelihood of near-to-below-normal rainfall over central and eastern Sudan, northern, western and southern Ethiopia, much of Kenya, eastern Uganda,much of Somalia and parts of northeastern, central and southwestern Tanzania, and western Eritrea

Zone V: Increased likelihood of near-to-above-normal rainfall over eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia

Zone VI: Increased likelihood of near-to-above-normal rainfall over southern Sudan, northern and western Uganda and westernTanzania

Zone VII: Increased likelihood of near-to-below-normal rainfall over southwestern Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi

Zone VIII: Increased likelihood of near-to-above-normal rainfall over the Tanzanian and Kenyan coasts and parts of the southern Somalia coast

Extremely Food Insecure

Highly Food Insecure

Moderately Food Insecure

Climate Outlooks for the Greater Horn of Africa(September-October-November-December 2005)(Courtesy: Sixteenth Climate Outlook Forum,Nairobi, Kenya, 31 August - 2 September 2005)

Food InsecurityOutlooks for theGreater Horn ofAfica (September-October-November-December 2005)(Courtesy: FamineEarly WarningSystem Network(FEWSNET)Sixteenth ClimateOutlook Forum,Nairobi, Kenya,31 August -2 September 2005)

change, energy and sustainable develop-ment and that one area cannot be dealt withwithout addressing the other two. Througha number of new sets of strategic scientificframeworks, WMO, NMHSs and their part-ners will continue to work within the UnitedNations system to ensure that climatevariability and change decision-makingcontinues to be based on sound scientificknowledge for the benefit of society.

16

G

EO

ST

ATI

O

NARY

ORBITR

&D

orb

it

tibr

or

alo

P

INSATs (India) 83°E

35 800 km

850 km

SUBSATELLITE POINT

GOMS (Russian Federation)

76°E

MSG (EUMETSAT) 0°Longitude

ENVISAT/ERS-2 METEOR 3M N1 SPOT-5

METEOR 3M (Russian Federation)

Aqua QuickScat TRMM

FY-1/3 (China)

GMS-5/MTSAT-1R (Japan)

140°E

FY-2/4 (China) 105°E

Metop (EUMETSAT)

NPOESS (USA)

GPM ADEOS II GCOM

GOES-R (USA) 75°W

METEOSAT (EUMETSAT)

63°E

GOES-R (USA) 135°W

Terra NPP Jason-1 Okean series

COMSAT-1 (Republic of Korea)

120°E

Other R & D oceanographic, land use, atmospheric chemistry and hydrological missions

www.wmo.intClimate knowledge – for the benefit of society

World Meteorological OrganizationFor information about WMO, please contact:

Communications and Public Affairs OfficeWorld Meteorological Organization

7bis, avenue de la Paix - P.O. Box 2300 - CH 1211 Geneva 2 - SwitzerlandTel.: (+41-22) 730 83 14 - 730 83 15 - Fax: (+41-22) 730 80 27

E-mail: cpa@wmo.int - Website: www.wmo.int

For more information on climate matters, please contact:World Climate Programme Department

World Meteorological Organization7bis, avenue de la Paix - P.O. Box 2300 - CH 1211 Geneva 2 - Switzerland

Tel.: (+41-22) 730 82 73 - Fax: (+41-22) 730 70 42E-mail: wcac@wmo.int - Website: http://www.wmo.int/web/wcp/wcp_prog.htm

Photos:NASA Earth Observatory, JAMSTEC/Earth Simulator Center, V. Aizen (FAO),

International Coral Reef Information Network, Horwath and Sandor (ICRC), AP/NOAA,StormCenter Communications, Amit Shankar/CSE, Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade,

Nick Cox/British Antarctic Survey, F. Pomamret/UNV