method for object-based diagnostic evaluation (mode)
DESCRIPTION
Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE). Fake forecasts. Test case results for MODE. geometric cases mode quantity A quantity B perturbed fake cases mode quantity A quantity B percentile of intensity median of max MET – mode_analysis results - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE)
Fake forecasts
Test case results for MODE
geometric cases mode quantity A quantity B
perturbed fake cases mode quantity A quantity B percentile of intensity median of max
MET – mode_analysis results centroid distance for matched pairs percentile intensity for forecast & observed objects
Geometric
1
2 3
4 5
THE WIN
NERarea ratio
1 1
2 1
3 0.29
4 1
5 0.15
THE WIN
NER
THE WIN
NER
Geometric
1
2 3
4 5
THE WIN
NERAngle difference
1 0
2 0
3 90
4 90
5 90
THE WIN
NER
Geometric
1
2 3
4 5
THE WIN
NERTotal interest
1 0.83
2 0.35
3 0.69
4 0.59
5 0.72
Perturbed fake cases
1. 3 pts right, 5 pts down
2. 6 pts right, 10 pts down
3. 12 pts right, 20 pts down
4. 24 pts right, 40 pts down
5. 48 pts right, 80 pts down
6. 12 pts right, 20 pts down, times 1.5
7. 12 pts right, 20 pts down, minus 0.05”
MODE objects
MODE objects
MODE objects
MODE objects
MODE objects
MODE objects
MODE objects
Perturbed Fake
case Position error and bias
Max interest for observed objects 1-8
1 (+ 3, - 5) 1 .96 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 (+ 6, -10)
3 (+12, -20)
4 (+24, -40)
5 (+48, -80)
6 (+12,-20) x1.5
7 (+12,-20) -0.05”
Perturbed Fake
case Position error and bias
Max interest for observed objects 1-8
1 (+ 3, - 5) 1 .96 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 (+ 6, -10) .99 .92 .99 .99 .96 .93 .99 .92
3 (+12, -20) .96 .88 .94 .88 .81 .88 .92 .88
4 (+24, -40) .87 .76 .81 .81 .72 .78 .81 .80
5 (+48, -80) .70 .52 .64 .73 .43 .50 .50 .59
6 (+12,-20) x1.5 .96 .66 .97 .88 .88 .86 .93 .79
7 (+12,-20) -0.05” .87 .60 .93 .88 .69 .72 .88 .81
Perturbed Fake cases
case Position error/bias
Median of max interest for observed objects 1-8
1 (+ 3, - 5) 1
2 (+ 6, -10) .975
3 (+12, -20) .88
4 (+24, -40) .805
5 (+48, -80) .555
6 (+12,-20) x1.5 .88
7 (+12,-20) -0.05” .84
Perturbed Fake cases
case Position error/bias
Mean centroid distance for (un)matched objects
1 (+ 3, - 5) (92) 17 grid pts
2 (+ 6, -10) (96) 22
3 (+12, -20) (102) 28
4 (+24, -40) (110) 39
5 (+48, -80) (107) 60
6 (+12,-20) x1.5 (91) 24
7 (+12,-20) -0.05” (104) 30
would like to have…
rainfall total for each objectarea ratio defined as fcst area/obs area
not just smaller area/larger area