method of perturbed observations for building regions of possible parameters in orbital dynamics...
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METHOD OF PERTURBED METHOD OF PERTURBED OBSERVATIONS FOR BUILDING OBSERVATIONS FOR BUILDING
REGIONS OF POSSIBLE PARAMETERSREGIONS OF POSSIBLE PARAMETERSIN ORBITAL DYNAMICS IN ORBITAL DYNAMICS
INVERSE PROBLEMINVERSE PROBLEM
Avdyushev V.Avdyushev V.
Planet
ERRORS OF OBSERVATIONSERRORS OF OBSERVATIONS
SatelliteReal
We SeeSatellite
p
Op
p Error
Orbit( , )C C tp p q
Parametric Errorq
q 1q 2
Probabilistic Region
True
LEAST-SQUARES (LS) PROBLEMLEAST-SQUARES (LS) PROBLEM
System of Equations
2
( )
N(0, )
O O C
O s
P P P P q
P
Solution of System2ˆ ˆ ˆ: ( ) || ( ) || minO CS q q P P q
Linear Case1ˆ( ) ( )C T T O P q Aq q A A A P
Nonlinear Case
11
1ˆ( ), lim
2
TC C
k k k kk
S
P Pq q Q q Q q q
q q q
2(4.5 ) ( 6, 0.997)K
CONFIDENCE REGIONCONFIDENCE REGION
ˆ ˆ ˆ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )T TS S q q q q A A q q
RMS Error2 ˆ( ) /( )S N K q
Normal Distribution
11 1ˆ ˆ( ) exp ( ) ( )
2(2 ) det
T
Kf
q q q C q q
C
Covariance Matrix2 1( )T C A A
2 ( , , )K F K N K
dim ; dimN K P qVector Length:
TWO TECHNIQUES FOR BUILDING TWO TECHNIQUES FOR BUILDING REGIONS OF POSSIBLE PARAMETERS REGIONS OF POSSIBLE PARAMETERS
1 1
2
ˆ( ) ( ) ( )
N(0, )
T T O T T
q A A A P P q A A A P
P
Technique 2 (LS-scattering)
11 1ˆ ˆ( ) exp ( ) ( )
2(2 ) det
T
Kf
q q q C q q
C
1/ 2ˆ
N(0,1)
q q C η
η
Technique 11/ 2 1/ 2 1/ 2: ( )T C C C C
Cholesky Matrix
LS-SCATTERINGLS-SCATTERING
ˆ ˆ: ( ( )) minO
S P Pr T rˆ ˆ: ( ) minO
S P Pq q
ˆ ˆ( )!q T r
( )( ) ( ( ))O C O C q T rP P q P P T r
Nonlinear Problem Linear Problem
REPARAMETRIZATIONREPARAMETRIZATION
LS-EstimationsTrue Positions
Observations
GEOMETRIC INTERPRETATIONGEOMETRIC INTERPRETATION
Linear Case
P C (q )
P O
P O
P C (q ) P C (q )ˆ–
–
2ˆ ˆ: || ( ) || minO C q P P q
GEOMETRIC INTERPRETATIONGEOMETRIC INTERPRETATION
P C (q )
P O
P O
P C (q ) P C (q )ˆ–
–P C(q )
P C (q )
P O
P O
P C (q )
–
– ˆ
Planar Case Non-planar Case
MODIFICATIONMODIFICATIONˆˆ ˆ: ( ) minC
S P Pq q
NUMERICAL EXAMPLENUMERICAL EXAMPLE
PROBLEM
Object S/2003 J04 (Jupiter’s Satellite)
PO (Емельянов и др, 2006)
PC (Авдюшев, Баньщикова, 2007)
Parameters 0 0( , ) ( 6)T K q x x
( 22)N
PROBABILISTIC REGIONSPROBABILISTIC REGIONS
Small Scale
-0 .15 -0 .1 -0 .05 0 0.05x 1 (A U )
-0 .15
-0 .1
-0 .05
x 2 (
AU
)
T ru e
E stim a tion
PROBABILISTIC REGIONSPROBABILISTIC REGIONS
Vast Scale
-0 .09 -0.088 -0 .086 -0 .084x 1 (A U )
-0 .108
-0 .107
-0 .106
-0 .105
x 2 (A
U)
T ru e
Astronomy & Space GeodezyAstronomy & Space GeodezyDepartmentDepartment
Tomsk State UniversityTomsk State UniversityAvdyushev VAvdyushev V. . Thanks!Thanks!
DISTRIBUTION OF SUMS OF SQUARESDISTRIBUTION OF SUMS OF SQUARES
2
ˆ( ) ( )( )
S SU
K
q q
q
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5U
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Den
sity
of
Dis
trib
uti
on F-distribution