methods and tools for force structure analysis - 1330...mapping & visualization, static &...

© 2017 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.

Dave GerberSenior Principal Systems [email protected]

Methods and Tools forForce Structure Analysis

National Security Analysis Group

Force Design ConferenceCanberra, AustraliaOctober 10-11, 2017

v15Approved for Public Release – MITRE Case Number 17-3786

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MITRE and Defense Collaboration

§ A not-for-profit corporation that operates multiple FFRDCs– "Federally Funded Research and Development Center" – MITRE established in 1958 – MITRE runs the United States' systems engineering FFRDCs

§ MITRE's Systems Engineering Centers1. National Security Engineering Center

§ National Security Analysis Group

2. Center for Advanced Aviation System Development3. Center for Enterprise Modernization4. Homeland Security Systems Engineering and Development Institute5. Judiciary Engineering and Modernization Center6. Center for Medicare Services Alliance to Modernize Healthcare7. National Cybersecurity FFRDC

§ Capabilities can extend to key allies

Dept of Defense

FFRDCs UARCs

Private Sector Contractors

UARC: University Affiliated Research Center

Labs

Approved for Public Release – MITRE Case Number 17-3786

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Force Design

§ Objectives:– Build useful capability portfolios effective in peace and combat– Maintain readiness and conduct operations with positive outcomes– Acquire forces in a timely, efficient, cost-effective manner– Prevail in combat as the last resort

§ Tension between process efficiency and product effectiveness– Bureaucracy versus innovation– Years of delay in pursuit of optimal solutions is... not optimal

How to pull insight from an enormous space of options, with limited time, competitive uncertainty,

and the requirement for favorable outcomes?


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Methods and Supporting Tools

First Understand the Problem1. Quick Look2. Comparative Net Assessment

Find Solutions via Analysis, Modeling and Simulation3. Analytica: Modular, parametric analysis4. EIMS: Enterprise Intelligence, Surveillance, and

Reconnaissance (ISR) Modeling and Simulation5. AFSIM: Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration and

Modeling6. JOVE: Joint Operations Visualization Environment7. PALMA: Portfolio Analysis Machine8. SIMEX: Simulation Experiments

This brief is a wave-top survey...not a deep diveApproved for Public Release – MITRE Case Number 17-3786

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1. Quick Look

§ Goal: Ensure options to be analyzed are plausible solutions– Examine the whole problem and solution space in the first 10% of

available time§ Clearly define the problem

– Why it is a problem and the origin of the problem§ Determine the knowns and unknowns that matter

– What is the basis for intelligent analysis?– Which few drivers most influence the outcome?– What critical things must we learn to retire the unknowns?

§ Based on the drivers, determine the range of plausible solutions– Identify who conducts the analysis and its specified (short) duration

§ Two passes on the solution set:1. Identify analytic topics and responsibilities and conduct the analyses2. Integrate the results, adding any newly discovered omissions


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2. Comparative Net Assessment

Representative future scenarios and objectives

Adversary Strategy

Adversary Capabilities

National / Allied Strategy

National / Allied Capabilities

Net Assessment

SWOT and Gaps

Future Strategy and Capabilities PortfolioWhat to invent, acquire, and/or integrate?

Incremental (<1)? Leap (2-3x)?Revolutionary (10x)? Asymmetric?

How they intend to operate

How do we need to

operate?The "why?"

The "how?"

With what?

Adapt Training, Doctrine, and Operations

Time to FieldCost to Field

GenresBalancePolicy

TechnicalSystems

OperationalWeapons

Diagnostic PrescriptiveSWOT: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats


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PALMA, SIMEX

Force mix optimization, Probability of Engagement Success calculation & budgetProbability of Detection, False Alarm, Targetdiscrimination Assessment

JOVE, STORM, ITEM, AFSIMBMD Campaign, Air Campaign Air Tasking Order, Combined Forces, Strategic Nuclear Forces

Mission Level

JOVE, EADSIM, BRAWLER, AFSIMEnd-to-end kill chain for: Ballistic and cruise missile defense Air Defense, C4ISR, Attack Ops

System Level SUPPRESSOR, EIMS, AFSIMSystem/element design: Integrated Tactical Warning and Attack Assessment, SEAD, Mission Control Element, Sensor Siting

Element Level JMEM, EIMS, MATLAB, Analytica, AFSIM

Target tracking, Radar resource management, 6-DOF flight, ISR mission planning, Weapon Effects

Engineering Level EIMS, MATLAB, Analytica, AFSIMRF/IR discrimination, Kill vehicle endgame, TargetObject Mapping correlation

Threat and Countermeasures STAMP, FIRESignatures (RF, EO/IR), Adversary route planning

Environment and Phenomenology MODTRAN, LOWTRAN, HEMP

Nuclear (prompt & persist), Terrain intervisibility, Atmospheric Absorption, Chem/Bio/Nuke ground effects

Graphic Display, Visualization and Animation STK, FALCONVIEW, ArcGIS, MKMAP

Mapping & visualization, Static & dynamic 2D & 3D

Modeling and Simulation HierarchyGovernment and commercial off-the-shelf, and MITRE-developed tools

FunctionalityExample Tools

CampaignLevel

1st

Order

Fidelity

Scop

e

Analysts Develop, Modify, & Use M&S Toolbox to Conduct Analyses & Generate Insights


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3. Analytica

§ “Intelligent arrays” enable quick development of new models

§ Influence diagram displays and a customizable user interface encourage clear communication

§ Integrated approach to risk and uncertainty allows for bounding of the analytic space

§ Example– Demo model assesses number and

insurance cost of earthquakes within a sliding window

§ "Analytica Free 101" available for download and use at no cost

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX

(C) Lumina Decision Systems, 2008 and CertusConsulting www.lumina.com/case-studies/risk-analysisNo endorsement implied.

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User Interface for a More Complex Model

Analytica User Interface and Sample Outputs

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX

Earthquake Cost Model Outputs

(C) Lumina Decision Systems, 2008 and Certus Consultingwww.lumina.com/case-studies/risk-analysis. No endorsement implied.

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4. Enterprise ISR Modeling and Simulation (EIMS™)

MATLAB MATLABMapping Toolbox

MITRE EIMS Toolbox

User Scripts and Functions

Radar Calculations

Sensor Calculations

Tracker Analysis Geometric Calculations

Data Visualization

Geographical Analysis

Coverage VisualizationThreat Calculations

EIMS is a MITRE developed toolbox for use with MATLAB

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX

EIMS is a MITRE trademark. Approved for Public Release – MITRE Case Number 17-3786MATLAB is a trademark of MathWorksNo endorsement implied.

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§ Maintained and distributed by Air Force Research Laboratory§ Includes a User Group and Configuration Control Board

§ Building block simulation framework using Object-Oriented design

§ Java-like scripting language for constructing scenarios and providing customized control without modifying the core C++ code

§ Plug-In Architecture

§ Models Subsurface to Space Domains

§ Multiple Levels of Fidelity§ Detailed physics-based representations of platforms, sensors, communications

systems, and weapons

§ GUI-based Integrated Development Environment (IDE) and visualization tool (VESPA)

§ Architectural modifications under way for multi-level releasability

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Case: 88ABW-2015-3469 (US Air Force Research Laboratory)

Advanced Framework for Simulation, Integration and Modeling

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AFSIM Software Components

Urban Environments Space Mission Analysis

Scenario Generation Terrain Analysis Immersive Visualization

Visual Environment for Scenario Preparation & Analysis (VESPA)

AFSIM Application

Sensors Weapons CommunicationsProcessorsMoversPlatforms

AFSIM FrameworkAFSIM Services

AFSIM Components

SimulationManagement

TimeManagement

EventManagement

TerrainManagement

DistributedSimulationInterfaces

Utilities

Observers

ScriptObserverTrack Management

Task Management

Plug-InManagement

ThreadManagement

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


Integrated Development Environment for Analysis and Simulation (IDEAS)

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VESPA-based Simulation Analysis

§ Sensor Coverage§ Projects time sensor coverage

onto 3D terrain§ Signature and RCS

§ 3D signature volumes§ 3D RCS volumes§ Clipping planes§ Project onto terrain

§ Terrain Masking§ Display where one or more

radars can see targets as colored regions

§ Distributed Interactive Display (DIS) Panels

§ Displays in VESPA applications§ Browse by time§ Emission panels§ Entity state with articulated

parts


ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX

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6. JOVE ™: Joint Operations Visualization Environment§ In use 10+ years for US defense sponsors§ Purpose

– Good answers in days to weeks, not months to years– Excursion analysis in minutes to hours– An intentionally lean, high-level modeling environment

§ Engineering and physics models provide system parameters§ Quick to build large multiplayer scenarios (100s to 1000s)§ Intuitive Graphical User Interface - no scripting§ Monte Carlo replications§ Watching the action unfold provides superb insights

– Many capability inventions and operational innovations have begun in JOVE

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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JOVE Structure

Engineering Models & Empirical Data(NAVSEA, NAVAIR, SPAWAR, NUWC, PMOs, ONI, …)

Behavioral, Maneuver & Combat Adjudication Engine

Command& Visualization

Interface

Performance Data TablesTechnicalModels

JointOperationsVisualizationEnvironment(JOVE)

Many tools require large teams a long time to learn, code and debug a simulation. Excursions from a baseline scenario are often no easier or expeditious.


ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX

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JOVE – The Battle of TrafalgarTools

AnalyticaEIMS

AFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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JOVE: Scenario Set Up

§ Menu driven – no coding or scripting§ Define Forces

– Specify platform types: British, French, and Spanish ships– Specify the weapons (cannon) carried by each ship§ Numbers, effective range, firing rates, probability of kill, magazines

– Specify the sensors (eyes and binoculars) carried by each ship§ Effective range, frequency of use, probability of detection

– Specify interactions – who chases and shoots who?§ Define Plans

– Place specific ships on the map on both sides– Provide an initial formation and baseline for movement

§ Control the Simulation– Replications, time increments etc.

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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Simulation Begins (12:00Z)Tools

AnalyticaEIMS

AFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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12:17Z (T = 17 minutes)Tools

AnalyticaEIMS

AFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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Cursor over a Ship to See Individual Actions and Status

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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12:18ZTools

AnalyticaEIMS

AFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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13:14Z – Cease Fire Losses 7:30Tools

AnalyticaEIMS

AFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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7. PALMA ™

Portfolio Analysis Machine

§ Software toolset: Provides a graphic and analytic framework to help decision makers identify the best portfolio (combination) of investments based on cost and capability

§ Key decision questions– What are the mission objectives and capability gaps?– What investment options to consider to correct the gaps?– What do they cost?– What does each option do?– How do the details effect the mission?

§ The PALMA approach– Decompose the mission into subordinate functions and tasks, forming a

hierarchical tree– Develop a node scoring system for mission functions and tasks– Develop investment options and their impacts– Apply PALMA's analysis tools

PALMA is a trademark of The MITRE Corporation

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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Step 1: Decompose missionTools

AnalyticaEIMS

AFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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Step 2: Apply a Scoring System

10 20

15Average

1. Quantitative scoring scheme for performance

2. Assign baseline scores at the lowest level

3. Provide rules to compute parent scores from subordinate score (e.g., weighted average)

Color Interpretation Numerical Range

Blue Exceeds requirements

75-100

Green Fully meets 50 - 75

Amber (Yellow)

Partially meets 25 - 50

Red Does not meet 0 - 25

… 30 10

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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Step 3. Add Options and CostsTools

AnalyticaEIMS

AFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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Step 3. Specify Option Impacts

Impacts of radar1

38 38

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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Step 3: More Option Impacts

Impacts of processor5

88 63 63 6388 88 88

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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Step 4: Investigate A Single Portfolio

Portfolio


ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX

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Step 4. Investigate the Efficient Frontier

OptimalPortfolio

Benefit = score of top node, Cost = sum of option costs


ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX

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Step 4. Ask "What if?" Questions

Constraints


ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX

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PALMA Benefits

§ Establishes an orderly process to approach decisions

§ Based on simple intuitive concepts

§ Requires identification of key objectives and capability gaps

§ Promotes constructive discussion

§ Answers “what if” questions

§ Tools are able to examine a very large solution space

§ Helps decision-makers explain the reasons for their decisions


ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX

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Exercise and Training

MonteCarloSimulationsSimulatedC4ISRSystems/Weapons/Operators

TTXs/WargamesWhite-cardedC4ISRSystemsand

Weapons/RealOperators

FieldEventsRealOperational

environmentandC4ISRSystems/weapons/Operators

SIMEXsSimulatedsensors/weaponsandreal

C4ISystems/Operators

IncreasingOperationalFidelity/Cost Agile Development

TTP/Technology

Policy/Strategy

StatisticalPredictions

8. Simulation Experiment: SIMEX ™

The Last Step before "Live"

SIMEX is one of the few options to test future systems in a present system context with integrated human operators

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX

Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 15-3742.

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SIMEX Process

ConceptExploration

ExperimentDesign

ExperimentIntegration

&Test

ExperimentExecution

ExperimentAnalysis

Concept paperScenario event list Sequence diagram

Scenario walkthrough Questions/issues/gaps

Scenario process model

Experimentation plan Data Collection and

Analysis Plan (DCAP) Simulation architecture

Network architectureTest plans

Test reportsProblem report tracking/resolution

Experiment dataDaily After Action Reviews

After Action ReviewFinal Report

Sponsor briefs

- Denotes Initial Planning Conference (IPC)- Denotes Final Planning Conference (FPC)

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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The SIMEX Facility

Floor-to-Ceiling Displays

See-through Walls

Decision Theater / Command Center

VIP Seating Area

Uni

t Ops

/ VR

Res

earc

h

Classified Developer Lab LCD Display

Green Screen

LCD Display

HD Cameras

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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SIMEX: A Differentiating Capability

§ Networked facility located in McLean, Virginia

§ Level playing field to industry and government for distributed experimentation

§ State-of-the-art venue for tactical experimentation for sponsors

§ Cost-effective mechanism for risk reduction events leading up to live demonstrations and exercises

§ Engineering environment for emulating current and future C4I, sensor and weapon systems in realistic scenarios

ToolsAnalytica

EIMSAFSIMJOVE

PALMASIMEX


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Summary

§ Clearly understand the problem and solution space

§ Employ tools of increasing sophistication with varied capabilities– Parametric modeling– Simulation and visualization– Cost-benefit analysis

§ Simulate current and future systems...with human operators in the loop

Thank [email protected]



AFSIM Video

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Case: 88ABW-2016-4105 (AFRL)

methods and tools for force structure analysis - 1330...mapping & visualization, static &...

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