Metrics

Dr. Johnny Snyder

Outline - Metrics

Historical Overview of Metrics Time as a Metric The FS Metric An Example Other Metrics in Computer Information

Systems Conclusion

A Motto -

“What is not measurable make

measurable.”

Galileo Galilei

(1564 – 1642)

The 1950’s

What metrics?

The 1960’s

Leonard Kleinrock writes first paper on packet switching.

First packets sent on ARPANet – 1969.

Note: The system crashed as the g in login was reached!

(Howe, 2004; Zakon, 2004)

The 1970’s

ARPANet protocol established.

Ethernet appeared.

ARPANet users number 2,000.

(Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)

The 1980’s

First virus appears.

BITNET appears (e-mail).

Number of hosts breaks 1,000; 10,000; then 100,000.

Archie appears (ftp archiver – Internet index!).

(Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)

The 1990’s

WWW appears.

gopher appears (indexing the web).

Number of hosts surpasses 1,000,000.

Shopping appears on the Internet!

(Zakon, 2004; Howe, 2004)

The 21st Century

Remember Y2K?

More than 1,000,000,000 indexed pages.

Flash mobs, Internet taxes, spam, speed…

US Census Bureau has 1.5 million page views per day. (Census Bureau, 2004)

Time…

Technology Time to reach 25% penetration (years)

Television 25

Radio 27

Telephone 35

Personal Computers 16

Cell Phones 13

World Wide Web 7

(Baase, 2003)

Time (1)

Recall that:

for humans.

1dt

da

Time - human

I.e. in one year, we

will all be one year

older!

Time (2)

Also, recall that

for cats.

7dt

da

Time - Cats

…so in one year our cats

will be seven years older!

note: 18 h.y. = 126 c.y.

Time (3)

But,

for computers.

25dt

da

Time - computers

Next year my

computer will be 100

years old!

Time (4)

For the Internet,

because it is movingfast…

)( tfdt

da

Which metric measures the Internet? Speed: powers of 10 (by threes)

Host growth: exponential

Number of pages: exponential

Number of possible paths: factorial

Lord Kelvin (1824 – 1907):

“When you can measure what you are

speaking about, and express it in

numbers, you know something about it…”

The FS Metric

As the 21st century evolves, new metrics will have to be developed, explored and tested for validity.

Many web sites and software tools appeal to the individualistic side of our personalities (as well as cultural and societal norms).

Feng Shui

A study of how energies in our

environment affect the way we live and

work in this area (the web) at this time.

Fang Shooy

A study of how energies in our

environment, when left unchecked, can

disrupt how we live and work in this

environment (the web) at this time.

Fang Shooy

Feng Shui

Fang Shooy

Feng Shui

What does this prove?

Well…

Nothing.

What does this illustrate?

That individual perceptions are hard to

quantify and thus measure.

How do we prove conjectures?

With theorems How do we prove theorems?

With more theorems!

Postulates

Axioms

Remember Euclid? (~300 BC)

Formulated axiomatic system for geometry.

Stood for more than 2,000 years as the model for organized thinking.

Axioms are “self-evident truths.”

(Burton, 2003)

What are Internet axioms?

Words in all uppercase letters are offensive.

Back buttons are necessary.

Pop-ups are annoying.

Speed is good.

Clutter is bad.

Definitions

How do you “define” a metric for

something like a search engine for

cyberspace?

Definitions (2)

Question: What is the fundamental

purpose of a search engine?

Answer: To search the web.

Definitions (3)

First we need a scale.

How about 1 to 10?

How about 0 to 100?

How about -3 to 3 with zero being neutral?

Definitions (4)

Lets select 0 to 100 with 0 being bad and

100 being good. Further, lets assume that

we begin at 100 and subtract points as

“errors” are encountered. (axioms violated)

* = Subject to individual interpretation

Definitions (5)

Pluses Order*

Calm*

Open*

Passive Colors*

Home Page No Pop-Ups Fast Loading No Horizontal Scrolling

Minuses Chaos*

Busy*

Cluttered*

Active Colors*

Splash Page Pop-Ups Slow Loading Horizontal Scrolling

Example: Search Engines

Evaluate the major search engines using the following point structure:

pop-ups - 10 horizontal scrolling - 8 scrolling text - 5 poor colors - 5 flashing animations - 5 information overload - 5 vertical scrolling - 3

Search Engine Rating Scale

0 50 100

Alta Vista

Dogpile

Google

Hogsearch

Lycos

Yahoo

Excite

Netscape

Feng Shui

Fang Shooy

Qualitative to Quantitative

Qualitative Measure

Quantitative Measure

Metrics in Systems Analysis and Design Gantt Charts and PERT Charts Diagramming Usability Testing

Level 0 DFD

Results/TheoremsData/Axioms

The System!

Metrics in E-Commerce

Click Through Rate (ad click) Clickstream Data Hit Rate Knowledge Curve Shopping Cart Abandonment Rate Throughput

Metrics in Human Computer Interaction Geert Hofstede and

dimensions of culture

Fitt’s Law

Hick’s Law

2

1log2 S

DAT

HkT

nH

1log2

Metrics in HCI (2)

Meyer’s Law

Power Law of Practice

W

DBAT

an nTT 1

New Metrics (needed)

e-waste e-pollution e-warfare e-learning e-voting e-taxes e~2.71828…

Conclusions

Metrics permeate, somehow, most fields of study.

CIS is a field where old metrics can be analyzed and applied.

CIS is a field where new metrics can be formulated, tested and applied.

That makes CIS interesting and entertaining!

Conclusions (2)

That is a bit about me and some of the ideas

that I am interested in.

Thanks again for coming!

Questions?

References

Baase, S. (2003). A Gift of Fire. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall

Burton, D. (2003). The History of Mathematics: An Introduction. New York: McGraw-Hill

Census Bureau, (2004). Retrieved December 1, 2004 from: http://www.census.gov/webdecade

References (2)

Hofstede, G. (1997). Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind. New York: McGraw-Hill

Howe, W. (2004). A Brief History of the Internet. Retrieved November 30, 2004 from: http://www.walthowe.com/navnet/history.html

Zakon, R. (2004). Hobbes’ Internet Timeline v7.0. Retrieved November 30, 2004 from: http://www.zakon.org/robert/internet/timeline

Top Five Metric (Grand Junction)

Search Engine Google Dogpile

5 Museum of W. Colorado

Hotels

4 National Weather Service

Quality Inn

3 Chamber of Commerce

Real Estate

2 City of Grand Junction Hotels (HotelsByCity)

1 Visitor Bureau Hotels (Expedia)

Top Five Metric (Mesa State College)

Search Engine Google Dogpile

5 Study USA www.10000scholarship.com

4 US University Resource

college.us.com

3 Mesa State’s Homepage no longer

resides…

Mesa State’s Homepage no longer

resides…

2 Mesa State Athletics Mesa State Athletics

1 Mesa State Homepage Mesa State Homepage