metro phoenix economic snapshot 2013 presented by paul bruno

If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing. Produced by Desert Lifestyle Publishing • 480.460.0996 • www.DesertLifestyle.net

HOW DO SALES IN AVIANO COMPARE TO OTHER NEARBY COMMUNITIES? 2012SalesStatisticsByCommunityCommunity Average DaysOn List/Sell # SalesPrice Market PriceRatio Closed

Aviano..........................................$530,394................. 82.................. 99%.........................55

Bellasera.......................................$511,496................. 76.................. 97%.........................29

DCRanch..................................$1,007,616................ 141................. 95%........................118

DesertRidge.................................$375,224................. 68.................. 99%........................269

EagleMountain............................$528,672................ 115................. 97%.........................30

GaineyRanch..............................$794,150................ 220................. 92%.........................30

Grayhawk.....................................$572,259................. 82.................. 96%........................133

HiddenHills...................................$617,407................ 126................. 96%.........................28

IronwoodVillage.........................$355,185................. 85.................. 97%.........................32

LegendTrail..................................$567,455................ 128................. 96%.........................60

McCormickRanch......................$421,856................. 82.................. 97%.........................63

McDowellMountainRanch........$513,130................. 73.................. 97%........................205

ScottsdaleMountain...................$607,771................ 141................. 96%.........................52

ScottsdaleRanch.........................$544,665................ 109................. 95%.........................95

Stonegate.....................................$521,957................. 95.................. 97%.........................63

Terravita........................................$458,572................ 147................. 96%........................103

Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)

AvianoSalesRecapfor2012

ListPrice .................... $370,000 Low $536,953 Avg $795,000 High

SoldPrice ................. $369,000 Low $530,394 Avg $750,000 High

Sale/ListPriceRatio ..........86% Low 99% Avg 1.11% High

Approx.Sq.Ft. ............... 2,417 Low 3,708 Avg 5,714 High

ListPricePerApprox.Sq.Ft. ................ $121 Low $146 Avg $184 High

SoldPricePerApprox.Sq.Ft. .......... $109 Low $144 Avg $177 High

DaysOnMarket ................... 0 Low 82 Avg 408 High

NumberofSalesin2012 ................55ListVolume ......................$29,532,400SoldVolume....................$29,171,663

Avianoinventoryislow,low,lowandbuyerdemandishigh.

TherearejustelevenhomescurrentlyforsaleinallofAviano,andsixofthemhavecontractspending.Homepriceshavebeensteadily

risingandarenowatexcellentlevels.Itisfinallyaseller’smarket.

Ifyou’veevenconsideredselling,don’tlistwithanyoneelseuntilyou’vespokenwithTheBrunoGroup.OurteamlistsandsellshomesinAvianoatthehighestprices.Thatmeans

listingwithanotheragentmightleavemoneyonthetable–withus,weworkhardtokeepsalespricesupandput

moremoneyinyourpocket.

Calltodayforadetailedanalysisofyourhome’svalue,currentmarketconditionsandourstrategyforyourhome’ssale.Welookforwardto

hearingfromyou!

Paul BrunoMobile:[email protected]

the SourceFOR AVIANO REAL ESTATE

Proudly Presented by

THEBRUNOGROUPYour Aviano Specialists

TherecoveryintheMetroPhoenixhousingmarketstartedquitegentlyinSeptember2011butgraduallygrewinstrength,andbythespringof2012itwasrunningattopspeed.Theimmediatelyobviousimpactwasastrongriseinpricing,infactagreaterpercentagerisethananyothermetropolitanareaintheUSA.Alookbackat2012comparedwith2011showsusthat:•Theannualaveragepricepersq.ft.rosebyover20% from$81.59to$98.24•Theannualaveragesalespriceincreased23%from $156,774to$192,549•Theannualmediansalespricejumped27%from$110,000 to$140,000 Inventorywaslowthroughout2012,causingintensecompetitionamongbuyers.Thiswasparticularlytrueatthelowerendofthemarket.Buyerswithcashheldasubstantialadvantage,sincetheycouldimpresssellerswiththefactthattheirofferdidnotdependonobtainingapprovalforaloanorasatisfactoryappraisal.Forthehigherpriceranges,supplyanddemandweremorebalanced,butpricesincreasedinmostareasasconfidencereturnedtothemarket. Salesvolumeswerelowerin2012than2011,butthiswaslargelyduetoashortageofaffordablehomestobuy,notbecauseoflackofdemand.Atthestartof2011,nearlyhalfofhomespurchasedwerelender-ownedforeclosures,butbytheendof2012thesehaddroppedtolessthan13%ofsales.Meanwhilenormalsalesgrewfromjust29%ofsalesinJanuary2011to61%inDecember2012.Shortsalestookoverfromforeclosuresasthepreferredmeansofresolving

homeloandelinquency.Theyconstituted21%ofsalesatthebeginningof2011,and26%bytheendof2012. Delinquenthomeloanswererunningashighas16.3%inArizonaasrecentlyasFebruary2010.ByOctober2012thishaddroppedto7.7%,accordingtoreportsbyLenderProcessingServices.Thisimprovementisthelargestofanystateinthenation.Arizona’snon-judicialforeclosureprocesshasallowedittoeliminatedelinquentloansatamuchfasterpacethanstateswithajudicialprocess.Thisisbadnewsfortheborrowersinvolved,butgoodnewsforthemarketsincewenolongerhavetheimpendingthreatofsignificantdistressedinventorycomingontothemarket. Manyfamilieswholosttheirhomesthroughforeclosureandshortsalesin2008and2009arenowplanningtostoprentingandgetbackintohomeownership.Thiswilladdtothe2013demandforhomestoown,ratherthantorent. Investorshavebeenaverysignificantpartofthedemandsinceearly2009andthisdidnotchangein2012.Whatdidchangeisthatmorepropertieswerepurchasedbylargemulti-nationalinvestorsinsteadofsmallerlocalplayers.Nowthatpricinghasrespondedtotheexcessdemandoversupply,weexpectdemandfromthelargeinvestorstoslowlydissipatein2013. Thenewhomemarkethassprungbacktolifeafteraprolongedhibernationbetween2008and2011.In2012,demandfornewhomesoutpaceddevelopers’abilitytobuildthem.Ashortageofskilledconstructionworkersandlimitedfinishedlotsinbuilders’ownershipmeantthatthegrowthinnewsaleswassomewhatstifled.Neverthelesswesawnewhomesalesgrowby49%between2011and2012despitesignificant

increasesinprices.Developersarenowbuyingupnewlandandfinishedlotstosetthemselvesuptosupplymorehomesin2013.Withtheexpectedincreaseinpopulationthough,thisisnotexpectedtobeenoughtomeetthecomingdemand. OveralltheMetroPhoenixhousingmarketisinastrongerpositionnowthanithasbeensincelate2005.Manythemesfrom2012willprobablycontinueinto2013asthemarketheadsbacktonormal.Foreclosuresandshortsalesareexpectedtodecline.Newhomeandnormalre-salesarelikelytoincrease,whilelowinventorywillcontinuetobeakeyfactorincausingpricestomovehigher.Withnosignificantsourceofnewsupply,wedon’tseeinventoryrisingbacktonormallevelsforaverylongtime. Inthecurrentmarket,homesareeasytosellbutsometimesbuyingcanbeachallengeduetocompetitionfromotherbuyers.Evenso,owningahomeisfinanciallymuchmoreattractivethanrentingbecauseinterestratesonhomeloansareunusuallylowandhomepricesarestillcheapbyhistoricalstandards,especiallywhencomparedwithrentalrates.Withtheinventoryofhomesforsaleexpectedtostaylowforsomeconsiderabletime,buyersarelikelytohavetheirpatiencerewardedwithcontinuedstrongappreciation.Mostofthosewhoboughthomesin2011havealreadyseenverystronggrowthinthevalueoftheirhome,andbythetimewereach2015wearelikelytobesayingthesameaboutthosewhopurchasedhomesbetween2009and2013.

AuthorandstatisticianMichaelOrristheDirectorofRealEstateStudiesatASU’sW.P.CareySchoolofBusiness,andPrincipalofTheCromfordReport.

IN THE NATIONAL SPOTLIGHT Aswe’veturnedthepageonanotheryear,thenationaleconomycontinuesitsmodestrecovery.Optimismtingedwithuncertaintyseemtobetheprevailingsentiments.Althoughtheworsteffectsofthe“fiscalcliff”havebeenaverted,thereisstillawait-and-seeattitudeamongconsumersandemployersregardingtaxationandfederalspendingpolicies. Corporationsareflushwithcash,butarewarytospendonhiringorotherbusinessexpendituresuntilfurtherclarityontheeconomy’spathisavailable.However,onceCorporateAmericagainsconfidence,thetrillionsofdollarsandrecordprofitsthey’resittingoncanbeinjectedintothemarketplacethroughemployment,manufacturing,andotherbusinessinvestment. ThereisadirectcorrelationbetweenanincreaseinconsumerconfidenceandanincreaseintheGDP.Whenconsumersarecomfortableandconfident,theyspendmoney,pavingthewayforbusinessexpansion.Forconsumerstofeelconfidentin2013,thereneedstobeacontinuedimprovementinthefinancialmarketsandhomevalues,alongwithaprogressiveloweringoftheunemploymentratecoupledwithaveragewageincreases.TheGDPisexpectedtogrowatapproximately2%in2013,aboutthesameaslastyear. Ourfinancialmarketsenjoyedarobust2012withtheS&P500finishingwithjustundera12%growth.Whiletherecentlyenactedtaxlawchangesmaydampensomeoftheenthusiasmininvestingforsome,manymarketforecastersareprojectinga6%-12%growthfortheS&P500thisyear. Thebrightspotintheeconomyin2012wasthehousingmarket,aslowmortgageratesandaffordablehomepricesnationwidekepthomessellingatabriskpace.Fortunatelythattrendisexpectedtocontinuein2013.Infact,someareasareexperiencingsuchahousingshortagethattheconstructionindustryisstrugglingtomeetdemand.ThatisespeciallytrueinourArizonamarket(seetheResidentialRealEstatearticle.) Kiplinger.comforecastsamoderate,butsteadyjobgrowththrough2013withaprojectedannualtotalofanaddedtwomillionjobsbyyearend.Similarly,theunemploymentrateisprojectedtodriftdowntoabout7.5%vs.7.8%attheendof2012. Mosteconomistsareexpectinganoverallimprovementinournation’seconomic

healthin2013.WayneStutzer,SeniorVicePresidentandFinancialConsultantforRBCWealthManagement,explainsthecyclicalnatureoftheeconomy.“Thetopofthemarketwasin2006.Today,2013istheseventhyearofthetypicalseven-yeareconomiccycle.We’realmostoutofthewoods.”Thewildcardmaybehowthenewtaxlawsimpacttheeconomyasthehigh-incomeearnerstargetedwithtaxincreasesalsoaccountforhalfofournation’sconsumerspending.Weareexpectingslowbutencouragingprogressinalloftheseareasin2013.Stutzercontinues,“Ifthingsgowell,then2013willberememberedastheeconomicyearthatsetthestageformuchbetteryearstocome.”

ARIZONA HEATS UP AlongwithNevada,Arizonawasgroundzeroforthehousingmeltdown,plaguedbyhighforeclosuresandhighunemploymentduring2006-2010.However,Arizonastagedastrongeconomiccomebackin2012,boastingthebesthousingmarketinthenation. “AsofSeptember2012,Arizonarankedfifthamongstatesforjobgrowth,andtheMetroPhoenixareawasfourthamonglargemetropolitanareas,”saysLeeMcPheters,ResearchProfessorandDirectoroftheJPMorganChaseEconomicOutlookCenterattheW.P.CareySchoolofBusiness.ThisisanextraordinaryimprovementfromArizona’slowpointin2009whenArizonafellfromanenviablejobgrowthrankingofsecondin2006,toadismal49thofthe50statesin2009.“Arizonaisexpectedtoadd60,000jobsin2013.Weshouldfinallydipbelow8%unemploymentin2013–downto7.6%.” Arizona’seconomicgrowthhashistoricallybeenstokedbyencouragingbusinessesandpeopletomovehere.Arizonaoffersadesirableclimate,affordablehousing,andagrowingbusinessenvironmentwithreasonablestatetaxrates.ArizonastandstobenefitfromCalifornia’srecentlyenactedProposition30whichraisesanalreadyhighstatesalestaxevenhigher,whilesignificantlyraisingincometaxesonindividualsmaking$250,000ormore.TheGreaterPhoenixEconomicCouncilhasdoubledtheireffortstoattractCaliforniabusinessesandtheiremployeestoArizona.ThesenewCaliforniataxlawchangesareexpectedtosignificantlyincreasepopulationflowstoArizona’sadvantage. ElliottD.Pollack,CEOoflocaleconomicconsultingfirmElliottD.PollackandCompany,notestheimportanceofmigration

toourstate.“Intheabsenceofthefiscalcliff,thingsshouldcontinuetoimproveoverthenextseveralyears.By2015,thingsshouldbenormalized.AsIliketosay,we’reonlyonedecentpopulation-flowyearawayfromtheissuebeingresolved.” MetroPhoenixhasrisenfromitshousingmeltdownwithencouragingjobgrowthledbyahousingboomthathasnowcausedaresidentialhousingshortage.Homebuildersaresteadilydustingofftheirequipmentandbuildinghomestomeetdemand.NewhomesalesinjectfreshlifeintotheArizonaeconomyandtaxbase.ThejourneytowardcontinuedeconomicgrowthandprosperityforArizonaseemstoonceagainbeheadingdownthefamiliarpathofbuildingandsellinghomestomeetincreasingdemand.

G E N E R A L E C O N O M I C S NA P S H OT

R E S I D E N T I A L R E A L E S TAT E

2013 ECONOMIC FORECASTS

GDPGROWTH2% growth in ’13,

about the same as last year. . .

INTERESTRATESLittleornoincrease

inshort-termratesin‘13. . .

BUSINESSSPENDINGAbouta4%gainin’13,

halfof‘12’space. . .

HOUSINGSALESUp8%,helpingGDPin’13

. . .TRADEDEFICIT

Wideningby2%in’13,afteraslightdipin’12

. . .UNEMPLOYMENT

Headingtoabout7.5%bytheendof‘13

. . .INFLATION

Slightlyhigherthisyear,2.3%. . .

ENERGYOiltradingat$90-$95/barrel

throughearlyspring. . .

RETAILSALES5%growthin’13

afterstrongholidaysales

Source:TheKiplingerLetter

ByMichaelOrr

ACTIVE LISTING COUNTSGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential

SALES PER MONTHGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential-MeasuredMonthly

MONTHLY AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOTGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential