metro study update

8/3/2019 Metro Study Update

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The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of IndiaASSOCHAM corporate ofce:

1, Community Centre, Zamrudpur, Kailash Colony, New Delhi 110048

Tel +91-11-46550555 (Hunting Line), Fax: 011-46536481/82, 46536498

Email: [email protected], Website: www.assocham.org

Study on

Urbanizing India &Mega Metro Network

Vision for the

Emerging Cities of India-2030

November 2011


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Table of Contents

UrbanizingCities ............................................................... 1

Metro&theSuburbanizationprocess.............................. 8

AdvantagesofMetro ......................................................... 9

Urbanization&connectingsuburbsviaMetro ............. 13

CategorizationofCities&MetroRailExpansion .......... 15

ListofCities-TierI,II&III ............................................ 18


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Urbanizing India & Mega Metro Network Vision for the emerging Cities of India-2030

Abstract:

Scenario 2030 projects that the totalurban population of India will be 590 million 40%

of Indias population, where Tier 1 cities population will go up to 155 million (more than

4 million), Tier 2 cities population will up to 104 million (1million- 4 million) whereas the Tier

3 cities will have 331 million population (less than 1 million population) respectively. This

projection was however based on the earlier census data and later sample surveys. However,

the latest data on urbanization from the 2011 census (provisional figures) predict that the

urbanization might be faster than what was projected so far. Between 2001 and 2011 the

urban population grew from 27.8 per cent of the countrys total population to 31.2 per cent,

that is, 3.4 per cent but this is higher than the growth in the previous decennial (1991-2001)

of 2.3 per cent(25.5 to 27.8). The number of towns has grown 53.74 per cent to reach 7,935

already that could well mean by 2030 their number could be nearer 10,000 than was envisaged

earlier. The urban population is already 377 million and might exceed the earlier projection of

590 million by 2030. Surely this urbanization trend is going to have fundamental impact on the

politics, economics and social situation of the country. The most critical issue in urbanization is

efficient transport and our study shows that metro rail answers the transit needs of urban areas

most effectively and has the potential to bring all round benefits to business, to environment

and multiple benefits to people in all walks of life. This study, therefore, urges planned and

perceptive metro development in all large cities and steps to find investment for it; any failure to

do so, or business as usual approach would worsen urban chaos. In the developing situation

with urban India gaining increasingly greater political weight age than ever, such failure would

be unacceptable elect orally for the political class and economically for the entire country. The

study in this context considers the multiple benefits that have accrued to Delhi even within

Phase I and II even as Phase III is under implementation. Metro rail is generating an industry

on its own and creating space for new services, jobs and raising social well-being within one

of the countrys mega urban conglomerate and the nations capital. ASSOCHAM considers this

a role model for all large cities to follow and urges specific steps in this direction.

Type of Urban Cities with Population expected by 2030

UrbanizingCities Populationby2030(InMillion)

Tier I (7 to 13) 155

Tier II(28 to 55) 104

Tier III(70 to 100) 331

Total 590


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(Number of cities with a population above one million plus will increase to 70, the first set of

numbers of cities as per 2001 census; for a list of cities as per 2011 see end of this paper. InTier 1 are cities with population above 4 million, tier II between 1 and 4 million and the rest are

below 1 million.)

(3 CITIES WITH POPULATION ABOVE 20 MILLION AND 10 OTHERS average WITH 5 TO 7

MILLION AVERAGE by 2030).

The big story about India is that it is urbanizing rapidly. For ages the saying was that India

lives in its villages. But now this has begun to change though the bulk of the population

might still remain in villages, the urban content is rising. From some 75 to 80 per cent of the

population being in rural areas, the beginning of the Third Millennium (2001) saw a reduction

of this to 72 per cent and urban population rising to 28 per cent. The census figures of 2011

reveal that the process of urbanization has accelerated: from an increase from 25.5 to 27.8

per cent of total population in decade ending 2001 to 31.2 per cent in decade ending 2011-

addition of 48 per cent more than the rate of growth in the previous decade. The number

of urban settlements designated as towns of any size has grown from 5161 to 7935 in the

decade ending 2011. There is an unmistakable and steady acceleration in the urban-rural

ratio in favour of urbanization and reduction in rural population per centage wise though the

absolute numbers in rural environment are growing due to total population increase.

Table:Urban-ruralratiofromdecennialtodecennial:

1991 25.5: 74:5

2001 27.8 : 72.2

2001 31.2: 68.8

2026 38: 62 (estimated)

2031 40: 60 (estimated)

Population in 2011 1.21 billion

Projected in 2031 1.41 billion people

However, the absolute size of the rural population will continue to grow despite the fact that

since the decennial ending 2011 the number added to urban areas for the first time has

exceeded that added to rural areas in the ratio of 90 to 91 million. The absolute size of the

rural population in 2011 is 833 million, compared to 742.6 million in 2001 and is likely to get

marginally reduced by 2030 to 817 million. The steep per centage rise in urban population

should not make us overlook the fact that the rural population would still be huge enough to

count both in politics and economics but as the latest NSSO figures reveal the rise in average


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urban income would be faster than in rural and the total urban income would continue to be

larger than the rural income by a large factor giving urban population far higher weight age inpublic affairs than is judged by its comparative size.

With 590 million urban people in 2030 Indias urban sprawl would become the second largest

urban system in the world, the urban population alone becoming larger than total population

of several other countries like USA, European Union etc. The growth has already been

phenomenal. What were billed as cities with a population above 4 million in 2001 census

have already doubled their population by 2008. The still larger metro city growth within the top

urban sprawl by 2010 is graphically brought out in the four largest metros :

Table:Populationprojectionandcriticalparametersoffourleadingmetropolitanareas

andofmini-metrosofIndia:

MumbaiKolkata Delhi(NCR) ChennaiMR

Population (2001) 23.62 17.25 18 8.8

P0pulation (2031) 33 23 28(?) 12

In millions; 2031 is a projection

Compact index 0.68 0.78 0.83 0.63

Arterial Rd. density 0.81 0.97 0.72 1.44Public transport

Use (per cent) 78 69 62 43

Vehicle km/capita 11 7.76 8.83 7.62

Fatality on Rd. 622 421 2093 629

Mini Metros (Population now)

Bengaluru 8.0 (2010)

Hyderabad 8.0

Ahmedabad 6.0 (total cities with population above 4 million is 7)

Car per 1000 persons:

Delhi 117; Ahmedabad 50; Bengaluru 50, Chennai 45; Mumbai 25.

(For list of cities with population above one million please see page No. 19)

Some highlights of this urban growth are very significant and do forecast what we should

expect in the next 20 years. The virtual doubling of the population in seven top-most cities

is seen in the fact that they have graduated from above four million population to around 8


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million population already. These cities have become vital engines of growth as they with just

15 per cent of the Indian population contribute 80 per cent of the government tax revenue.The urban population by itself would be the major contributor to the GDP and to government

revenues. The rapid growth in the contribution of the urban population to the GDP is evident

from the following:

Table:Contributionofrural/urbanareastoGDP

Year Rural Urban(percentageofGDP)

1990 54 46

2008 42 582030 31 69

(source: Indias Urbanization: McKinsey study)

With urban population reaching 40 per cent of the total population and contributing nearly 70

per cent of the GDP and 85 per cent of the 892 billion USD revenue of the government (as

against 80 per cent of the 170 billion USD in 2008), there could be significant shift in both the

economics and politics as well as social problems of the country. The proportion of urban

voters would increase and therefore urban issues would begin to dominate political agenda

and urban-rural mix of the elected representatives. With the number of mega cities that iscities with population of more than four million doubling from 7 to 13 (or 14 estimates differ)

some of these mega metros would be larger than the population of several countries. Mumbai

Metropolitan Region with 33 million population and GDP of 265 billion USD (in 2008 prices)

will have a larger GDP than Portugal is now, and in population equal to Canada. It will be larger

than several other countries in either population or GDP or both, like Malaysia, South Africa,

UAE etc. The combined urban population of 590 million would surpass the entire population

of the European Union and of USA and several other countries except China.

This urban growth is also characterized by huge deficiencies in infrastructure and investments

needed for their improvement. No Indian city has reached the minimum of 300 USD percapita per annum considered the global average needed for efficient urban infrastructure.

Mumbais is the largest but at USD 220 is still below the 367 USD needed. The situation in

most other cities is almost pathetic with even Chennai only 51 against 262 USD needed.

Huge investment is required. One estimate of total investment needed in the urban sprawl

has this data:

For cities with 1 to 4 million population Rs. 2,17,200 crores

For cities with 4 million plus population Rs. 1,37,680 crores

(not counting the Metro rail investment required)


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The developing urban scenario reveals that:

Cities are sprawling

Declining public transport

Supply side focus needed

Multiple institutions cut into one another

Huge network inadequacies

Low investments

Poor enforcement of urban regulations

Lack of education of people for urban discipline

The table Urban Sprawl 2010 reveals the close relation between better transport and urban

economic efficiency. Use of public transport is the highest in Mumbai metropolitan region at

78 per cent mainly because of its decades of efficient but crowded round the clock surface

suburban rail system. At the same time Delhi(NCR) that so far was largely using private as

well as public transport (public transport density 62 per cent with only a short metro) has the

highest road fatalities rate of 2093. It also has the highest vehicle km per capita at 8.83. Delhi

has the highest car per 1000 persons at 117 with Mumbai having the lowest. Though this is

not conclusive it could be inferred that larger the rail transport in urban spread and lower the

car per 1000 persons( good public transport, especially rapid rail transport), the fatalities ratewould be significantly lower. In fact the graph of fatalities on road accidents in Delhi show

that significant fall from the level of 2400 deaths began with year 2000 and the fall rose further

when the first phase of Metro began to take effect though since 2005 there was increase once

again due to rising road congestion. Of course, along with Metro, Delhi also had a number

of flyovers covering most of key traffic junctions that also brought down congestion in the last

two years.

Overall Investment perspective

Studies in different urban structural scenario show that rail rapid transit will have the largest

share of city transport investments in cities with population above 4 million.

Table:Idealpositionofrailrapidtransitpercentage:

Size >10 Mill 4to10 M 1to4 M 05 to1M


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Compact cities with complete and well planned network

% of rapid rail network 50 50 0 0 0

This study by the Ministry of Urban Development also shows that urban transport investment

requirements under these three scenarios mentions Rs. 21,298 crores, Rs 15,926 crores

and Rs 12,267 crores as the total investment requirement for transport in the three different

scenarios in 1995 prices(without specifying city size). Dispersed cities require more investment

for longer length of roads and rail tracks and other networks. Rail transit will have largest part

of city investment requirement among different items of requirement in all large cities, apart

from investment in street infrastructure:

Under scene 1 29.3 per cent

Under scene 2 24.4 %

Under scene 3 13.1 %

It is also obvious that the pressure of urbanization with large scale migration of rural population

into the urban areas in search of jobs, better educational and health opportunities, and out of

the demonstration effect of cities, it would be very difficult politically and otherwise to restrict

city expansion. The emergence of dispersed cities is thus inevitable in most cases though

with some forward planning the surge from the rural areas could be directed in specific areas

of settlement. For instance, Delhi has expanded on all sides with NOIDA and Greater NOIDA

in the east and Gurgaon in the West becoming satellite cities integrated into Delhi in manyways. Mumbais expansion has spilled over and an entirely new city Navi Mumbai is coming

up attached to it. The story is the same in all other metros and mini metros. At the centre of

each of these megacities the metro rail lines are, in the coming 20 years, destined to become

the focal point of transit growth and network infrastructure. With the most recent data from the

2001 census revealing accelerated urbanization, there is no escape from the rural migration

to urban cities, more so to the seven mega cities with populations more than or reaching eight

million. Thebigchallengeforurbanplannersistocopewiththesevenmegacitieswith

apopulationabout20percentofthecountrydemanding40percentof investments

projected.

The investment in rapid rail transport for urban areas has many benefits other than merely

improving by a large factor the efficient movement of people within the Metropolitan region.

Studies in green house gas emission in urban areas undertaken by the Urban Development

Ministry at various stages have focused on this benefit among others.

Reduction in pollution

A comparison of green house gas emissions estimated for different types of transport modes

throws up Metro rail as the least polluting among various vehicular traffic.


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Table: Greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles and transport modes in developing

countries:

ModeLoadfactor(average

occupancy)

CO2emissions(gms/

passengerKms)

Car (gasoline) 2.5 130-170

Car (diesel) 2.5 85-170

Car (natural gas) 2.5 100-125

Car (electric) 2 30-100

Scooter (two stroke) 1.5 60-90

Scooter (four stroke) 1.5 40-60

Bus (diesel) 40 20-30

Bus (natural gas) 40 25-35

Rail transit (electric) 75% 20-50

Aviation 75% 350-500

(source: IIT Madras)

Fuel consumption and Investment requirements

An Urban Development Ministry study shows that public transport share at 75 per cent till 2031

will reduce fuel demand by 100 million ton oil equivalent to 42 per cent. Actual investment

requirements have been estimated at over four lakh crores for urban transport development in

87 cities but these estimates could at best be considered rough and as we see the four mega

cities themselves are asking for over Rs 1 lakh in Metro investments each in the coming years.

Going by the Delhi Metro estimates the financial internal rate of return on investments have

been pegged at 17 per cent but these estimates should be raised by 1.4 per centage points

when benefits like reduction of urban air pollution are considered.

Metro rail in Delhi: inspiration for future urban transit

The transformation of public transport in the National Capital sets a sustainable though

capital intensive model for dealing with rapidly growing urbanization of the emerging India in

this and the next two decades. Partly under the pressure of international events and partly

under the rapidly evolving global recognition of India as an emerging power considerable

resources have been concentrated in planned urban transport in Delhi and NCR to take care

of the explosive growth of the national capital region (NCR). For instance, two ring roads have

been made completely traffic crossings free through flyovers and underpasses at strategic


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points. The old pattern of buses has been largely replaced by the modern low floor buses

both air-conditioned and non-AC with a distinct colour scheme for easy identification. The busstands wear a streamlined look and soon will have GPS enabled real time information system.

Widened roads enable more public and private vehicle transport to move faster and with

fewer chances of traffic hold ups. Bus route corridor in arterial roads has been introduced to

speed up bus transport. The goods trucks passing through the city have been diverted and

forced to move only during low traffic timings and the peripheral bypasses under construction

are expected to completely divert them away from the city centre. Apart from local resources

Central grants under JNNURM (Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission) and

private sector and foreign government investments have been the main funding sources for

this transformation.

What is most significant and critical in this transformation as ASSOCHAM and its member

industry and business concerns see it has been the Delhi Metro Project. This metro set

up without much time overruns, have sent a message to all states in the country with large

metropolis in them to go in for similar metro projects there too. TheDelhimetroprojectas

ofnowcomprisesanetworkof186.72kms.This includes an Airport to New Delhi metro

line (Airport express line) that takes just 21 minutes to transport people over this length that

by road should even after the construction of the series of elevated roads and flyovers an

hour. More metro lines are under construction/sanction that would within the next five years

enable all points in the NCR reached by metro rail very fast and free of traffic hold ups. That

this has changed the transportation set up and even socio-economic culture is the additional

benefit of the metro apart from the energy saving when lakhs of commuters give up motorized

personal and private transport in favour of traveling by metro.

Metro & the Suburbanization process

AnASSOCHAMsurveyhasfoundthatduringweekdays,overtwolakhofcarowning

officegoerswhousedtoattendtotheirjobscommutingbytheirpersonalcarsarenow

regularlytravelingbythemetrousingtheircarsonlytomovefromresidencestothe

metrostationswheretheycouldparkthecars.Itsavesthemnotonlypetrolexpense

inthecontextofrisingpetrolpricesbutalsorelievesthemofthestrainofdrivingto

officeand backduringthepeakhourtrafficinthe city.Severallakhofficegoersand

businessmen,professionals,salesexecutivesanditinerantsalesmen,otherworkmen

andwomen,whousedtotravelto workbybuses,havealsoshiftedtothemetroora

combinationofbusandmetro.Themetroitselfprovidesbusservicesfromitsselect

stationstoneighboringblockswhichfacilitatescommutingfurther.

The last ten years that saw the set up and growth of the Metro network have also resulted in


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accelerating the spread of sub cities and satellite towns like Gurgaon, NOIDA, Greater NOIDA,

Ghaziabad etc. This is evident from the acceleration of construction activity in these satellitetowns and the coming up of large office complexes that rival the best in the world as well as

residential areas there. This spread relieves congestion in Central Delhi and enables more

breathing space for the population of Delhi that has doubled from less than a crore to over

2.39crores(23,900,000) ( as on Jan 1, 2011) within the last ten years. It has also enabled

Delhi to stage international sports events like the Commonwealth Games without huge traffic

hold ups and resulting tensions.

ASSOCHAM and other surveys also report a new metro culture of clean, orderly metro

transportation with citizens learning the discipline for the first time of keeping the premises

free of spits and wastes. Visitors to Delhi have observed the contrast between the three major

railway terminals on the one hand and the entire range of metro stations on the other in regard

to cleanliness. The Metro authorities have encouraged commuters to keep the premises

clean, employed staff for periodic cleaning every day and applied the stick of penalties in

case of misuse.

Advantages of Metro

The easy access to the three major railway terminals in the city ( with three more coming up

soon) over the metro has also meant comfortable and hassle free ride to these terminals to

and fro from anywhere in the city. Consider for instance the congestion on the Pahargunjside of the New Delhi railway station and the problems to reach the terminals even from Rajiv

Chowk or central New Delhi even though the distance is less than a km. Delhi municipal area

alone in addition to its own population of over one crore, also attracts some 10 lakh visitors

every day, people coming for business, sight seeing, interaction with central government

agencies and for dozens of events daily. Delhi is a huge centre of wholesale as well as retail

businesses, apart from being the seat of central and state government power. The total strength

of motorized vehicles in Delhi between 2000-2010 was over 60 lakhs (2 & 4 wheelers). There

is also a flood of similar vehicles coming into Delhi from neighboring towns every day. There

would have been interminable traffic chaos if the metro lines had not drained the city roads ofsuch ultra heavy loads of traffic.

A second advantage of the metro is gradually getting projected. It becomes easier for low

income groups and rural immigrants flocking to the cities and creating slums to be dispersed

over to the new towns from where the metro could take them been strong resistance to such

shifts and government has had to use force for effecting such dispersal leading to explosive

law and order situation and avoidable human suffering. One of the many reasons for this

resistance is that these slum dwellers who find jobs in various residential colonies, business


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centres and tea shops and as itinerant artisans and vendors cannot afford to spend the time

and money to reach to their work places from the new locations as buses even if they arecheap (which they are not) cannot transport such large numbers that fast either. Metro should

at least partly meet this need.

Delhi Metro: cost-beneft estimates

RITES estimated the cost of the Phase I of Delhi Metro at Rs. 6406 crores at 2004 prices with

a foreign exchange content of Rs. 772 crores. For Phase II it was Rs. 8626 crores . Daily

passenger footfall was estimated to be 12.63 lakhs in 2002 rising to 54.17 lakhs by 2011

( for both phases combined). Revenue was to go up from Rs. 1505 crores in 2005 to Rs.

3376 crores by 2011 and Rs. 12,792 crores by 2030. The net benefit to government by thisMetro was estimated for year 2011-12 as Rs.3176 crores. The net present economic benefit

from the Delhi Metro (first two phases only) was estimated to be over 22 per cent and net

present social benefit (NPSB) at 22.7 per cent as per 2004-05 prices. The financial rate of

return would be 17 per cent. Social time preference might be computed as Rs. 4197 crores

in money terms. Commenting on the rate of return at economic, financial and social level for

the Metro investment, the Planning Commission is quoted as having remarked: These rates

are much higher than the recommended social time preference rate of eight per cent and the

10 per cent rate of return for investment in India as per a recent study commissioned by the

Planning Commission. In their study of Delhi Metro Murthy et al (Delhi School of Economics)has found that the benefits from reduction in urban air pollution in Delhi due to the Metro

has further increased the rate of economic return to 23.9 per cent. This means the benefits

to Delhi public from reduced air pollution due to the Metro increases its economic rate of

return by 1.4 per cent. The study cited also concludes that Delhi Metro provides incremental

income to Delhi public which has a per capita income more than two times the national per

capita income.

The multiple benefits of Metro could now be listed as it has now completed run of nine years.

The study quoted above says that Delhi Metro contributes to the diversion of a very high

proportion of current passenger traffic from road to Metro and serves part of the growingpassenger traffic demand in Delhi. ASSOCHAMs own study finds that this diversion (

already over two lakh car owning commuters leave their vehicles at the Metro parking or ride

bus to Metro station and prefer to use the rail for commuting to their work place) is just a

beginning and is bound to accelerate once all the nodes in the Metro system are in place with

the Phase III of the project. Our study shows that at present Metro lines are time consuming

(comparatively) for many commuters: for instance, from the sub-city of Dwarka to central

Delhi it takes one hour. The critical traffic nodes like Dhaula Kuan are going to be directly

connected to Red Fort through Jan Path in central Delhi. This would encourage many in


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West and South-West Delhi to travel to central district or to the wholesale business centre

of Chandni Chowk via Metro at more affordable rate. With Phase III of the project all parts ofNCR would be interconnected and Metro travel would become the norm with buses and three

wheelers confined to supplementary role. Then the full benefit of diversion of car/bus traffic

to rail line would be felt and the passenger density would go up by several factors.

The benefits would include a reduction in development cost of roads and in investment in

buses for the government and private transport sector. However, this statement has to be

qualified as government would have to invest in better and wider roads and in better type of

buses like the low floor ones already being deployed on Delhis roads and on projects like four

and six laning, flyovers at all critical cross points, cementing of roads ( as we have detailed

in our study on Diesel pricing) and in laying cycle paths to encourage shift to a non-polluting

and health improving life style. WefindthatitisnotRailversusRoadinurbanplanning

butbothrailandroadtraffictosupplementeachotherwiththemaximisngofreturn

fromboththroughasynergyintheirplanning. For passenger car owners Metro could

lead to much maintenance cost saving as the daily commuting would shift to the Metro; the

availability of a round the clock Metro network alone would significantly reduce car demand

and thereby less pollution. We should also list among the benefits less pollution due to fewer

traffic jams and faster turn round of road taffic.

Also counted among the benefits are: saving in travel time and health benefits due to the

public traveling in airconditioned comfort. ASSOCHAM survey has observed an encouraging

development on Metrol rail in Delhi as against road travel. The latter has a class segmentation

with better off office goers and professionals traveling in cars and upper middle class people

using airconditioned buses. In the Metro travel, all classes of Delhi citizens enjoy the same

airconditioned luxury. Considering that travel in airconditioned buses cost more per km than

non-AC travel, the Metro provides a level traveling field for all without any cost discrimination.

The health aspects of such travel when you move in crowded areas, is another aspect. The

arrival of the Metro pushes up land and property prices and rental returns. More people are

attracted to buy up or rent property far from the working place because of ease of travel withthe Metro arrival. The study quoted earlier notes that The metro has the effect of increasing

the income of the regional economy of Delhi vis a vis the rest of the Indian economy. Our

survey also found that there could be a substantial reduction in cars coming to Delhi daily from

outlying towns as the Metro reaches those towns. In fact, high speed rail travel plans have

already been laid for reaching out to growing cities around like Meerut, Sonepat, industrial

town of Faridabad and tourist centre of Alwar connecting them to Delhi. This again would

enhance Delhis value as a business centre. In ordinary circumstances these towns would

not have come into the NCR area as there could be considerable time gap in reaching out


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to them as well as cost gap. The reduction in vehicles due to Metro Phase I and II has also

been considerable:

Year CarsandJeeps TwoWheelers Buses Total

2005-06 50586 284433 3398 338417

2010-11 10000 65000 4767 79767

2015-16 30000 150000 12388 192388

ItisobviousthatthewithdrawalofmotorizedvehiclesduetoMetrowillbemanifold

asthe rail travel catcheson and network expands infuture. It isalsoworth noting

thatasurgeofthosetravelingearlierbyscootersgoingforMetroissignalingMetrosattractiontotheurbanmiddleclass.

RITES estimated in 2005 that the total reduction in CNG due to traffic of buses diverted to

the Metro (Phase I and II) during the year 2011-12 would be 39.65 million kg. Similarly fuel

saved due to the diverted traffic of cars and two-wheelers would be 138.35 and 25.70 million

litres respectively. At 2004 prices that are just half of what they are today, the fuel savings

work out to 1573 crores as per 2004 prices and Rs . 3146 crores. To this should be added

the fuel savings due to the residual vehicles finding it easy to move around. ASSOCHAMs

own estimate therefore is that the fuel savings now should work out to about Rs.20,000

crores annually in 2011-12 and rise progressively to over Rs. 25,000 crores by 2020at the current prices. We take into account in this estimate the fact that the Metro would

be moving into phase III completion by 2015 and that would further reduce the number

of vehicles on the road, encourage more people getting to Delhi from outlying cities like

Meerut to come by Metro rather than motorized vehicles and the population increase and

car registration to arrive at this estimate. Again, the Metro benefit total should be higher as

we estimate monetary value of pollution reduction. In 2011-12 due to Metro there is also

reduction in air pollution load due to decongestion. Various estimates are available on this

score, the acceptable figure of Rs. 1376 crores however is in 2004-05 prices; in current

prices that figure could b e over Rs. 2500 crores. Murthy et al and RITES have estimatedthe time saving in different price levels- value of time per person saved at Rs. 5.96 per hour

in one estimate and Rs. 7.91 per hr in another for buses and other vehicles. RITES estimate

assuming the daily passenger load by bus at 3.3 million and by Metro at 3.2 million and

average lead 0.21 hr and 0.31 hr respectively and value of it per passenger at Rs. 5.96 Metro

value for time saved would be Rs. 5.91 million and for buses Rs. 4.13 million, clearly giving

a lead for Metro rail travel. RITES estimate has put the money saved due to lesser number of

road accidents at around Rs.50 crores. Operating costs saved for reduced use of vehicles is

estimated to be Rs. 1504 crores in 2011-12. Apart from these general benefits to people and


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the economy of the city, the benefit to government in various forms like fare box revenues,

property development revenues, advertisements and tax on goods and services bought forthe Metro use, all add up to another Rs. 3176 crores in 2004 prices. Putting these and all

other benefits together and reducing the loss to transporters of buses and other vehicles, the

estimate of net present economic benefit at the lowest level comes up to Rs. 2100 crores

in 2011-12 at 2004 prices. Some other estimates give a larger figure about 70 per cent

more. It is interesting to note that Murthy et al have estimated net benefit to the public at

Rs. 1426 crores at 2004 prices in 2011-12. Over the life cycle of the Metro investment NPEB

using an 8 per cent discount is estimated at Rs. 43,238 crores; with discount rate at 10 per

cent NPEB could be lower at Rs. 23,205 crores. Rate of Return on investment works out

taking all benefits into account between 23.85 and 23.88 per cent which is encouraging andmake this investment worthwhile. In addition, the Net Present Social Benefit of Metro for the

income distributional effects are computed between Rs. 41997 and Rs. 21851 crores using

two different approaches. This gives rate of return at between 22.70 and 22-60 percent.

Adding air pollution reduction the economic rate of return is 23.9 per cent for Metro project

as a whole.

Urbanization & connecting suburbs via Metro

By transforming the economics and sociology of urban spread the metro is seen to be showing

a new direction in urban development in the country. For Mumbai that had for long had thebenefit of surface run suburban rail system the call for a heavy investment in an underground

metro in addition to the suburban rail system has come partly in the wake of the success

of the metro in Delhi. Mumbaiisconstructinganetworkof146kminMumbaicityand

suburbsandadditional300kminMumbairegion. The first Rs. 2356 Cr. metro rail corridor

running fromVerasova-Andheri-Ghatkopar is expected to be commissioned next year. One

more line Charkop-Bandra-Mankhurd metro corridor has completed financial closure and

construction is to begin soon. It is interesting to note that despite the existing suburban rail

system and additional Rs. 5,000 crore multimodal urban transport project, quadrupling of rail

lines from Virar to Borivili and additional 100-new suburban trains, the Mumbai MRDA hasdecided to invest as much as Rs. 50,000 crores plus for seven more metro corridors to reduce

the congestion on the suburban rail lines and to accelerate mass transport connectivity in

all two East-West, North-South directions in Indias number one metropolitan area and the

nations commercial and financial capital. We could recall what Chennai is planning where

Metro rail work began in 2008 with a Phase I budget of Rs. 11,000 crores.

Kolkata metro was the first to come up in the country and is now being expanded. Metros are

coming up in Bengaluru and Hyderabad and Kochi though is not in the category of 4 million

population is demanding one. There is no more evidence needed to underline that Metro


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has emerged as the Number One means of mass transportation in the emerging urban

landscape of the country.

In developed countries the Metro is taken as normal and has already transformed the urban

landscape for instance, in New York it has promoted suburban growth and dispersal with

the majority of the metropolitan population preferring the more comfortable living conditions

in suburban culture to the congestion of the city centre flats. The growth of the suburban

cities and townships in the NCR seem to follow the same pattern. One striking symbol of

this suburbanization is the citing of many new malls and even luxury hotels in the satellite

townships of Gurgaon and NOIDA in preference to central New Delhi. Most commercial high

rise buildings have also come up in these satellite towns where newly built both commercial

and residential properties are creating high valuations. This enables private enterprise to be

innovative in every respect in design and development of these commercial and residential

spaces and in promoting retail businesses and entertainment places compared to the similar

functional areas of central Delhi. This has virtually given rise to a new industry that could be

termed as satellite town infrastructure that complements and enhances central city economy.

There is also the reality to be considered that such large concentration of population in

terms of multiples of million cannot be transported by buses without jamming all the main

roads. Metro is thus a necessity for the future of urbanization of India as the country moves

rapidly into the 21st centurys new economic structure with its industrial and service economy

overshadowing the farming economy as the main driver of the gross domestic product as we

shall see in the next few paras.

In the perspective of the 21st century we have to accept urbanization as an inevitable

consequence of the emergence of an industry and service driven economy. The tradition

of 70 per cent of the people depending upon agriculture that contributes only 25 per cent

of the GDP can only perpetuate large swaths of the population remaining at low level of

incomes and well-being. Even now with only less than one-third of our population in urban

areas, it generates over two-thirds of the countrys GDP and account for 90 per cent

of government revenues.For many reasons including the fact that rural India cannot find

adequate income generating jobs to the rising rural population of the country, migration of

population to urban areas has been going on in the six decades since independence. This

and industrialization in the hinterland areas has created new towns and swelled the existing

cities to a unacceptable level of growth. As a result slums now account for one-fourth of all

urban housing. In certain top metros like Mumbai almost half the population is estimated

to live in slums or unauthorized colonies without any basic amenities mainly because these

slums /unauthorized colonies are near their work spots or where unorganized jobs are

available. The level of urbanization increased from 17.6 per cent in 1951 to 23.7 in 1981 and


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then to 27.8 per cent by 2001, as per the decennial census. Though this may appear not

too huge, in terms of absolute numbers, by 2001 the urban population was 285 million whichwas larger than the urban population of all countries except Brazil, China, Indonesia, Russia

and the United States. The data from the 2011 census would reveal how far this has swelled

further. For comparison it is worth noting that the urban population of India in 1901 was a

mere 20 million. The number of urban settlements in the same period rose from 1830 to

4378 per sq km. The addition between 1951 and 2001 was 70 million to the urban population.

Economists interpret such urbanization as an index of the transformation from traditional rural

economies to modern industrial ones. The transformation in the Indian economy has been

straight into the services which now constitute over 50 per cent of the GDP content.

Summing Up

Demographic projections show that by 2030 the total urban population would be 590 million,

out of which 40% would be urbanized population. This should increase by 2030 to 67 per cent

reducing rural population to 31 per cent.

Tamil Nadu (67%), Gujarat (66%), Maharashtra (58%), Karnataka (57%) and Punjab

(52%)wouldhavepopulationfarinexcessof50percentinurbanareas. In Uttar Pradesh

urbanization may be below 50 per cent but as much as 68 per cent of the population is likely

to be in urban areas, denoting high level of urban chaos if mass transport is not planned early.

The fast pace of urbanization projected in the last decade has now been confirmed by thelatest census figures of 2011.

This fast pace of urbanization also mean that almost 85 % of the tax revenue of government

would be generated by these cities by 2030, already 80 per cent of the tax revenue is from urban

areas the total tax revenue in 2008 was $170 billion which by 2030 would rise to $ 892 of which

85 per cent, which is urban India by 2030 would be adding $615 billion to the Governments

kitty by that year. This could be a huge change agent in the Governments agenda and could

also create huge socio-political problems for government if mass transportation and other

urban problems are not attended to through proper planning with immediate effect.

Categorization of Cities & Metro Rail Expansion

The number of cities with a population of more than fourmillioniscalledMega-citieswould

goupfromamere3 now to over 13and Six cities crossing the mark of 10 million

populationand from48to68MillionPlusCities by 2030 respectively. The dynamics of

transport in these cities would be such that if the townships do not have the space to spread

the transport to office and back would choke the city roads. These dynamics say that if

the density of population is only 10 per hectare any point in area of 100 hectares could be

reached by 1000 people within 12 minutes of walking time without any motorized transport


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but if the density in 300, as many as thirty lakh peoplecan reach the same spot within

the same walking time which would naturally choke the area. So if this choking is to beavoided the spread of the urbanized area is essential. Imaginetheurbanchaosthatwould

confrontagovernmentfailingtoplanforthissortofmegachangewhenin13citieseach

withapopulationofabovefourmillion&sixcitieseachwithapopulationofabove10

million(MegaCities)therewouldbehugedemandformasstransport. Nothing can do

this sufficiently as a metro rail system would do. Also the planning for the metro system for

6 mega cities (2030)(Mumbai,Delhi,Kolkata,Chennai,BengaluruandHyderabad) from

now onwards could mean establishing a large metro equipment industry for the coming days.

This would attract huge investments, create lakhs of jobs and render efficient services. Along

with planning standardization of Metro equipment is also needed so that mass production ofthis equipment including coaches, signaling, station design etc could be set in motion now to

gain economics of mass production.

Of course, there are new developments in the urban rail transport like monorail, orbital systems

etc which take off from the metro railway system.

In fact, these subsidiary systems are being considered for speeding up transport within the

satellite cities like Ghaziabad to Meerut on the east side and Gurgaon to Sona in the south

side of Delhi. The comparative efficiency of these various rail systems would have to be

studied. As these systems come up a pattern would emerge that would tend to optimize

energy efficiency and fuel use in the entire metropolitan area as such.

It is obvious that multi-modal transport has to be provided in the metropolitan or mega city

area and optimal spread of the population should be achieved within the availability of land

and other resources. This requires proper and early planning as we are on the threshold of

a huge urban surge.

It is better that such planning is attempted now rather than later to avoid social tensions,

and pressures on the well being of the urbanizing India in the next 30 years. It is also

plain that too high a population density and to that extent less moving space and living

space for this population would tell on the health of the urban population and increase

public health and medical costs in future. Studies in urban transport policy options show

that there could not be an optimal population for a city, what is critical in such planning

is the direction as future growth can be organized to make a city compact or dispersed

way. As cities act as magnet for immigration from rural areas limiting population would be

difficult but it would be possible to plan for the dispersal of his population using multi-modal

transport while maintaining high level of efficiency of movement and feeling of comfort for

each household.


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It is this development that has caught the imagination of several other metros and mini-

metros to demand and plan metro developments. The list of growing metro projects inmajor cities of the country reveals this critical importance of metro rail projects. A Central

Government report has this list:A new metro project was taken up in Hyderabad for 71.16

km., at an estimated cost of Rs. 12,332 crores, besides the ongoing metro projects

of Bangalore, Chennai, Kolkata (East-West Metro corridor) and Mumbai. In addition

to the above, In principle approvalhasbeengivenforstage-IoftheJaipurmetrorail

project, to be implemented by the State government from its own resources. We have

seen already what is happening in the prime financial centre of the country in Mumbaiwith

MetroprojectcostingoverRs.50,000crores planned in addition to the extension of its

existing huge network of suburban trains. Mumbai has already grown beyond even its lastmile of suburban growth and has spilled over into Navi Mumbai and even upto Pune in

the south and Vadodara-Surat in the north. In smaller metros like Kochi there is a growing

demand for metro project that is now before the Central government authorities for sanction.

Thisrevealscountrywiderecognitionthatmetroprojectiscentraltourbangrowthin

theyearstocome. The criticality of the metro was also accepted by the Government in

amending the Metro Railway Act in 2009 giving legal cover to metro projects. Theviability

fundingfromGovernmentwouldmakemostofthemetroprojectsundertakenonPPP

basis,achanceofsucceedinginthenextfewyearsprovidingmostofthemega-cities

metrotransportationformassurbantransport.

In the context of urban growth in India over the next 30 years, these developments assume

critical importance as they could redesign and refashion the entire urban landscape. It is in

effect the only way the explosive urban growth expected in the next two decades could be

contained and channeled.

ASSOCHAM believes that the Government should move quickly to establish the Metro as

the best mass transport means in urbanizing India as a policy. This would mean planning

for metros in all major cities having a population of above four million, the projection of metro

construction and facilitation of mass transport to create demand for more industries to servethis demand and many new services to be provided in metro premises and through its network

of satellite bus services.

The check points for a Mega Metro Mass Transport Vision would, according to ASSOCHAM,

should consist of:

1. Creation of a mega metro network vision for 20newmillionpluscities (from 48 to 68),

13citieswith4millionpluspopulation and 6mega-citieswithmorethan10million

populationsofwhichMumbaiandDelhiwouldbeabove30million by 2030.


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List of Cities:

Tier I= More than 4 Million (currently 7 cities, by 2030 13 cities)

Tier II= Between 1 Million-4 Million (currently 48 cities, by 2030 will be 68)

Tier III= Population less than 1 Million

Thirteencitieseach will have a population of above 4million there would be demanding

mass transport. These 13 cities crossing 4millionmarkby2030are: Sixcitieswillhave10

millionpluspopulationby2030,andtwooutofthemat30millionplus.

Tier I:

List of cities with more than 4 million population by 2030:

S.No. Cities Populationprojectionfor2030

1. Mumbai 33.0

2. DelhiNCR 25.9

3. Kolkata 22.9

4. Chennai 11.0

5. Bangalore 10.1

6. Pune 10.0

7. Hyderabad 9.8

8. Ahmedabad 8.4

9. Surat 7.4

10. Jaipur 5.4

11. Nagpur 5.2

12. Kanpur 4.2

13. Vadodara 4.2


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Indiawillhave68citieswithpopulationofmorethan1millionby2030,upfrom48as

ofJanuary1,2011. These 48 urban agglomerations in India with a population of 1 million ormore are:

List of Million plus cities as on Jan 1, 2011

S.No. City Population(January1,2011)

Tier I Cities

1 Delhi 23,900,000

2 Mumbai 23,300,000

3 Kolkata 16,600,0004 Chennai 8,900,000

5 Bangalore 8,000,000

6 Hyderabad 7,700,000

7 Ahmedabad 6,100,000

8 Pune 4,950,000

9 Surat 4,375,000

Tier II Cities

10 Kanpur 3,750,000

11 Jaipur 3,375,000

12 Lucknow 3,025,000

13 Nagpur 2,875,000

14 Patna 2,600,000

15 Jabalpur 2,231,670

16 Bhilai 2,225,000

17 Indore 2,025,000

18 Vadodara 2,024,000

19 Bhopal 1,960,000

20 Coimbatore 1,960,000

21 Ludhiana 1,870,000

22 Agra 1,850,000

23 Kochi 1,740,000


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24 Nashik 1,740,000

25 Asansol 1,720,000

26 Meerut 1,720,000

27 Visakhapatnam 1,720,000

28 Bhubaneswar 1,710,000

29 Chandigarh 1,670,000

30 Varanasi 1,550,000

31 Kolhapur 1,540,000

32 Rajkot 1,460,000

33 Jamshedpur 1,450,000

34 Madurai 1,400,000

35 Amritsar 1,390,000

36 Dhanbad 1,380,000

37 Allahabad 1,310,000

38 Aurangabad 1,290,000

39 Vijayawada 1,280,000

40 Srinagar 1,260,000

41 Solapur 1,200,000

42 Ranchi 1,190,000

43 Thiruvananthapuram 1,130,000

44 Guwahati 1,120,000

45 Jodhpur 1,110,000

46 Tiruchirappalli 1,070,000

47 Gwalior 1,060,000

48 Kozhikode 1,020,000

2. The vision should include creation of a manufacturing base for metro products in the

country. This would require standardization for equipment right at start.

3. Creation of a funding mechanism and a special fund from out of the Government share

of profits, taxes from the projects related to the metro. Government to provide Virtual


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Security Guard (VSG) for firms undertaking advanced planning and execution of metro

projects through this fund.

4. The optimal population of the emerging metropolitan areas must be fixed in the vision

and steps should be taken to ensure that satellite towns come up with all facilities to

encourage dispersal of urban communities.

5. Metropolitan Transport Authorities be created for each emerging metro township.

6. In 2008, urban GDP accounted for 58% of the overall GDP. By the year 2030 it is projected

that the cities will account for 69% of GDP whereas the rural contribution would be around

31%. There would be critical political impact of this urbanization which should be studied

in advance by all political parties and academic institutions.

7. The urbanization process will attract MNCs and services sector such as hotel & hospitality,

infrastructure development, sanitation etc.

8. It will help India to be seated at the table of the developed nations.

We are sure with these steps and proper implementation the metro projects, urban India

will take off much before the target date of 2030 with urban transport growing into a major

driver of our economy while moderating the impact of mass demand for speedy metropolitan

transport because of advanced planning.

HHH


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NOTES


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