mexico. mexico’s key institutions before 1924: –presidents came/left office –not normal way...

Mexico

Mexico’s Key Institutions

• Before 1924:– Presidents came/left office – Not normal way

• Ousted by elite, military coups, violence (assassinations)

• Four Constitutions since Independence– Little constitutionalism– Presidents:

• few limits on powers• Construct personalistic dictatorships• True of 3rd World Politics• Make own rules

• Change?– Est. 6 year terms– Stability settle for the rest of the century– Military answered to the PRI president– Personality of the President– Clientelistic System:

• major groups have been co-opted into cooperation• Have a stake in the system• Input in the government policy• Peasants

– Land reforms• Workers

– Unions• Bureaucrats

– jobs

Mexico’s Key Institutions

The Six-Year Presidency

• Combines head of state and chief of government

• 20th century more powerful the U.S. Pres.– PRI pres. had a PRI maj. in congress– 2000 election

• Fox: PAN• Congress: PRI• Made Fox less powerful• 1st taste of “divided government”

• PRI:– Succession was in hands of presidents

• Not always a well-known person

– Pres. And Past Pres. Would determine party nomination (called Dedazo)

– Candidate never lost • Until 2000• Won 90% of votes• Would not look into corruption

– No choice was absolutely predictable – Once in office departed from previous policies

The Six-Year Presidency

Mexico’s Legislature

• Bicameral Congress– Congreso de la Union – Less important the presidency– PRI would out supporters in congress

• Elections changes– 1986 Election Reform Law

• Mixed member system – Single member district seats – Plus additional seats based on each party’s share of

the popular vote (proportional representation [PR])

• Upper House– Camara de Senadores (Senate)

• 128 seats • 6 year terms• 96 seats filled by single member districts • 32 by PR

• Lower House– Camara Ferderal di Diputados (Federal

Chamber of Deputies)• 500 seats• 3 year terms• 300 seats filled by district voting• 200 by PR in five regions


Mexico’s Legislature:2005, PRI biggest party

but no longer a majority Senate Chamber of

Deputies

PRI 60 seats 222 seats

PAN 46 seats 151 seats

PRD 16 seats 95 seats

• 1997:– PRI lost its majority– PAN and PRD could out vote PRI

• From opposite ends of spectrum• Agree only in their dislike • PAN = Free market and curb on spending• PRD is the exact opposite

– Pan can do little in congress• Majority status = unlikely• Cooperation from PRI = very difficult

– Deadlock doomed FOX


Mexico’s Dominate-Party System

• “One-Plus” party system– Dominated by parties so big seldom lose– Other parties are legal– Dominate in media and civil service– Voters acknowledge big party may be corrupt – Voters like stability and prosperity – Dominate party does not deliver: losses hold

• PRI:– Founded by Calles in 1929– Revolutionary and socialist – Cardenas and Alvarez

• Leftist- Anti United States View• Most moderate centrists

– Calles and Cardenas • Designed with four sectors • Strong patronage network • Increase educated middle class sectors less important

– Votes have shrunk – Still wins Central Mexico– Gubernatorial elections possible good showing In 2006

elections


• PAN– Founded 1939– Opposition to Calles anticlericalism – Felt martyred by PRI government– Catholic and Business (1980)

• Coexist but could pull apart

– Best Showing in Northern Mexico– Vote for Fox was not a vote that they had become

conservative Catholics• Vote against PRI

– Not expected to win 2006 election


• PRD– Partido Revolucionario Democratico– Founded 1989– 2005 won the governorship of the southern state of

Guerrero – Cuauhtemoc Cardenas may have won in 1988

(PRI rigging)• Cadenas and a leftist part of PRI split from PRI • Split over Free-market policies

– Little support= uphill struggle – Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (ALMO) strongest

candidate for president in 2006


• “Former dominant-party System”– PRI has weakened– Bilateral Opposition (left PRD; Right PAN)– PRI decline

• Corruption• Growth of educated middle class

– On way to multiparty or two-plus party


Mexican Federalism

• 31 states and Federal Districts of Mexico City– Distrito Ferderal, DF (equivalent of our D.C.)– Each state has a governor, one time 6 year term– Unicameral legislature

• Concentrates power in the center (i.e. Soviet Union )– PRI hand picked state governors

• Most Presidents served as governors • States get revenue from National Gov’t

– i.e. food chain

• Hard to comprehend b/c it is dysfunctional – Several cultures

• Indian passivity • Spanish greed• Catholic mysticism• Populist nationalism• European:

– Anticlericalism, liberalism, anarchism, positivism, socialism

– Mexico is regionally, socially, and culturally badly integrated

– Political culture was brought over in waves• Never really “set in”

Mexican Political Culture

• Indian– Found in remote villages– Food– Religions: blend of pre-Columbian religions and Spanish

Catholicism– Use to blood sacrifice – Aztec+ early Mexican societies

• Strongly hierarchical• Peasants taught to defer to social superiors• Spanish took over use to subordinate behavior• Forced labor of haciendas or silver mines

– Spanish Conquerors were make• Mestizos: of mixed descent • Mestizaje (intermingling of Spanish and Indian) cultural and social

thing

Mexican Political Culture: Mexico’s Indian Heritage

• Latin Americans– Free of racial prejudice– Money and manners count more

• Right language and culture • “Money Lightens” • Whites

– University, entering a profession, making lots of money, living in a nice house

• Mexicans (Indian descent)– High risk of infant death, malnutrition, poverty, and lowest paying jobs,

unemployment– Historically better than US

• Nonwhites can rise to the top• i.e.: Juarez (Indian); Cardenas (mestizo)• Economic and politics (most have been white)• All Mexicans celebrate the country’s Indian heritage

Mexican Political Culture: Mexico’s Indian Heritage

Mexican Political Culture:Imported Ideologies

• Continent is a reliquiario – A place for keeping saints, a piece of the true cross– Sale of Old ideologies

• Liberalism• Positivism• Socialism• Rural socialism• Anarchism• Anticlericalism• Fascism• Communism

• Liberalism– 19th century– Rejected monarch; open society to new forces– US- took naturally to philosophy of freedom;

LA did not: encumbered by inherited social positions, big bureaucracies, state-owned industries

– No middle class, no liberalism– Economic neoliberalism: building free markets


• Positivism– Improve society through science– Brazil motto “Order and Progress”– Diaz centificos typified the positivist spirit– Conflicted with liberalism


• Socialism– Europe: worked they had a lot of industry– LA: had little industry– No working class = no socialism– Mexico invented and “coddled” unions to look

like a working class– Some still see it as the Answer for Mexico

• Poverty


• Rural socialism– Reject industry; favors small farms– Returning to rural idyll of equality and

sufficiency based on family farming– Zapata was its hero– Idealizes the past– Not enough land– Peasant farming = poverty


• Anarchism– Primitive socialism– Argues end of national government = erase

class differences– Several revolutions were influenced by

anarchism


• Anticlericalism– Founded by French writer Voltaire– Calles claimed church

• had too much power• Favors the rich• Keeps Mexico Backwards

– Did Catholic church really have that much power?


• Fascism– Founded by Mussolini; copied by Hitler– Combines nationalism, corporatism, fake

socialism– “Fascism with sugar”– Not sweet and welcomed Nazi War criminals– Cardenas hinted at national socialism

Mexican Political Culture: Imported Ideologies

• Communism– Marxist socialism – Called for an end to continents drastic

• Inequality• Poverty by the state taking over production • Ending US exploitatoin

– Popular among intellectuals


• So addicted to ONE ideology– Fail to notice the rest of the world has

discarded them– Communism has collapsed

• Europe and Soviet Union• Meaningless in China• Alive in Cuba


Patterns of Interaction

• Calles and Cardenas – Co-optation– Promised peasants and labor a “good deal”– Rural and workers unions

• Became demanding• Government crushed them

• Professing socialism – Tolerated no competition from Communists– Mateos arrested communist; broke up strikes

• “Fakery” in PRI– Served themselves

• Tried to co-opt students– Nearly a free education– Employed them as civil servants– Cannot work forever; lack of money– Students #’s and discontent grew– Accused PRI of abandoning it commitments to

social justice


• President Gustavo Diaz Ordaz– Obsessed with order/tolerated no criticism– 1968 Mexico City Olympics

• Feared student protest• Mar his picture of a modern/happy Mexico

– October at the Plaza of the Three Cultures • Police gunned down 400 student protesters

– What PRI could not co-opt they crushed – Turning point in PRI rule

• The point at which it visibly began to destabilize


Politics inside PRI

• Two major factions;– Politicos (politicians)

• Populist seeking elected office• Pay attention mass needs and demands• Pay little attention to economic needs• Run up huge deficits (leads to inflation)• Diaz (64-70), Echevarrria (70-76) Lopez

Portillo (76-82) depended on oil

• Two Factions:– tecnicos (technicians) to the world

Technocrats• Tried to fix the economy• Worry less about mass demands• Free market• Fewer government controls• Neoliberalism

Politics inside PRI

• Hurtado (82-88) and Gortari (88-94)– Presidents– Tried to stabilize the fiscal chaos by overspending– Fiscal technicians

• PRI implemented free markets• Reforms PAN also sought• Provided insufficient regulation• “freed” banks made bad and crooked loans• Financial sector crashed in 1995 • Peso lost its value• GDP declined by 6.2% • Mexicans grew poorer

– The Problem• Not education• Part-way economic reforms that provide freedom without rule of law • Expansion = crashes• Fox could accomplish very little

Politics inside PRI

• Sleeper in Mexican Politics– Roman Catholic Church– 90% Mexicans are Catholics– Spirit since revolution has been secular– 1910-1920 Revolution….saw the church as upper-

class conservatism– 1917 Constitution: imposed limits

• Land, educational institutions, and religious orders• Found secret convents and closed them• Priests travel in ordinary clothing w/o collar

– 20th Century the Church was put on the Defensive

Mexican Catholicism

• Church never gave up– Catholic teachings– Lay organizations– Schools – University– 1939 founding of PAN– Set the stage for the return of the Church– Modern business-oriented future

Mexican Catholicism

Crime and Politics

• Most powerful interest group: Crime• Politics: the means of influencing the state• Crime: the means of avoiding the state• Each side understands each other• Politics needs money/pay little attention from

where it comes• Crime needs protection of politics to continue it

enterprises• Weak State politics turns violent • Crime with little fear of the state, ignores their

powers

• Pancho Villa– Blended banditry and revolution

• Madero (1914)– Assassination of top leaders was common

• Still exist: nosy journalists, zealous prosecutors, and aides to Cardenas

Crime and Politics

• 1994 killings– Paved way for Fox’s victory in 2000– Luis Donaldo Colosio

• PRI candidate to succeed Salinas• Killed with a shot to the head in Tijuana• Shooter was apprehended, but not the one who ordered the hit

– Jose Ruiz Massieu• PRI Party secretary General • Shot dead• Salinas brother was charged with the hit/ serving 50 years

– Salinas ends his term in disgrace /exiled in Ireland– Massieu brother was assigned to investigate but resigned

• Accused PRI bosses of complicity and coverup

Crime and Politics

• Good:– Two new trends:

• PRI was stinking more and more• Mexicans were sufficiently educated and sophisticated to see

the system for what it was

– System of control and co-optation that could work amid ignorance and poverty could not work amid a substantial middle class

• 2000 marked ir first turnover in the power another could mark a stable Mexican democracy

Crime and Politics

What Mexicans Quarrel About:Population and Jobs

• Population Explosion– 1934: 16 million– 1960: 34 Million

• Growth rate 2.8%• 1.2% a year

– Power of the economy can sovle the population explosion

• Middle class naturally = smaller families• Mexican rate is down due to emigration• US rate is up die to immigration

• Quarrel about how to make jobs for the millions of unemployed and underemployed

• Institutions and economy cannot keep up with population growth

• Zapatista dream:– Redistribution of land

• Will not work b/c not enough land to distribute

• State-owned industry – Grow slowly and employ few– PEMEX

• Generates lots of money • Not a lot of jobs


• 4% of Mexicans own Mexico’s wealth• 40% live below the poverty line• No jobs and no land

– Mexicans flocked to cities– Shanty towns – Sell small items or stolen items

• 22 million Mexican’s work for the “informal economy”– Black market– Pay no taxes– Contribute to the growing deficit

• Mexico City– Over 10 million strong – One of the largest cities in the world– Worlds worst air pollution


• Interior South Mexico– Extreme poverty – Zapatista rebellion started in 1994

• Leader: “Subcomandante Marcos” – Interviewed with face covered – Speaks eloquently– Accurate about Mexico’s history of exploitation and

poverty– PRI’s betrayal of its promises to “uplift” the poor– Embodies the romanticism of the Revolution


• Distribution of income – Mexicans go hungry – Many do not earn the minimum wage ($4.50 a day)– No money to save

• Insufficient capital for investment and growth– Middle class people save

• Generate capital for investments– Poor:

• Trouble acquiring skills • Schools are inadequate in rural Mexico and shantytowns• High crime rates = little foreign investment• Poverty leads to more poverty

– Escape: sneaking into the United States


• “Cures”– PRD

• Populists, leftists, trade unionist, nationalists• Want to keep or restore state-owned industry• Privatization of Pemex is deemed a sellout

– Mexico’s constitution prohibits any private ownership (foreign or domestic)

– Lack of investment and shortages – US trained economists

• State-owned industry are stagnant, inefficient, corrupt, and employ too few

• People are Panistas or PRI tenicos• Recent presidents have liberalized the economy (Fox wanted

to go further)


• Oil– Skews development away from

• Long-term and balanced growth• Employs few• Concentrates wealth• Makes country dependent on rise and fall of oil prices

– 1970 new fields were found in the south• Echeverria and Lopez spent like crazy• Felt rich • Inflation and 1995 crash of the peso ended that thought

– Squander new oil reserves • To present the illusion of wealth

– “Oil is kind of a drug that induces illusions of grandeur”


• If PEMEX was privatized– Mark the coming of Mexican economic

maturity– The “gringos”

• Want your oil• Will pay for it• Will bring new technological inprovements


The NAFTA Question

• Globalization– Does it really exist?– Does it uplift the poor countries?

• Cross out globalization and put “China trade”

• Latin America plays a minor role – Stagnant economic growth – Proof it does not work in LA – Strict class structure

• Gap between rich and poor is increasing

• Inequality grows as economy modernizes

• Economy grows = middle class – Inequality will dwindle

• So far has created few miracles in LA

The NAFTA Question

• Hailed and feared

• US thought “vast sucking sound” as jobs were outsourced to Mexico

• Mexico feared US would dominate their country

• Most optimist foresaw economic grwoth for all

The NAFTA Question

• So what happened???– Nothing– That is the problem– Fox saw less than a 1% increase in economic growth;

loss of 2.1 million jobs– Could not compete with China

• Culture is flexible and adaptable• Class structure is egalitarian (everyone has a chance to rise)• Leadership is united in growth and foreign investments• Labor cost are low, productivity is climbing

– Mexico’s productivity has been declining

The NAFTA Question

• Globalization never asked the question– What would happen if of free trade when one

large producer has incredible advantages over all others?

– How many low cost producers can the world take?

– Will China’s productivity capacity snuff out all others?

– “Poor Mexico, so close to the US, so far from China”

The NAFTA Question

• Politics revolves around NAFTA– Left (including PRD) want to either scrap the whole

thing or seriously modify it– PAN is for it

• Fox with his Coca-Cola background • Fox celebrates globalization = answer to Mexico’s way out of

Poverty

– PRI negotiated and ratified NAFTA• Still have lingering doubts

– Give it time and it will work• But how much time does Mexico have?• Two answers: immigration or drugs

The NAFTA Question

Drugs:A Mexican or US problem?

• Mexico– Grows some marijuana– They are the way station – Boarder with US makes smuggling easy

• By air, tunnels, trucks, mules • Every kilo = 20 or more get through

– Excess of supply over demand

• Problem for both countries– Led to the penetration of crime into the highest levels

of power• Police, justice system, and army• Corrupted by Drug money• Salinas had a brother in the drug trade

– One characteristics of weak state• Penetration of Crime• Mexico Crime and Politics depend on each other• Drug money helps politicians = politicians help traffickers


• Problem is the lucrative US drug market– Americans did not take illicit drugs

• Wide layer of LA crime would disappear– Might pause long enough to consider the

narcotraficantes murder hundreds and harm stability and growth of LA

– Catching traffickers and checking boarder crossings has little impact

• Profits are so great many join the trade• Where else can a poor man make so much

money?• “We have meet the enemy, and he is us.”


Illegal or Undocumented?

• US = “illegal immigrants”• Mexico = “undocumented workers”• US-Mexico boarder

– Only place you can walk from 3rd world to 1st world

• Few Mexicans worry about breaking the law• Push/pull factor

– Opportunity for a decent life– Many jobs in the southwest depend on Cheap labor.

• It’s an American Problem– Humanitarian effort

• Put out a comic book showing how to survive the dangers and deserts of crossing the boarder

• Want US to accept more immigrants – Legal or temporary immigrants

– Grant amnesty to illegals already here

• Most Americans do not want a flood of “Spanish Speakers”– Clothing, manufacturing, meatpacking, and agriculture resist

limit

• Fox’s biggest defeats = not getting Bush to make legal Mexican immigration legal


• 14 billion dollars is sent over each year

• Best thing we can do– Make it safe and legal!!!!– Work with Mexico


Modern Mexico

• For most countries in LA – Mexico is the model for growth and prosperity– With the right policies it could become the “Latin

Tiger”• What is the right policy for growth?

– Low wages and good productivity– Labor cost over time lag behind productivity growth

• Produce more and better and earn a share of the world market

• Labor cost overtime will rise– The Trick: keep productivity rising even faster– Example: postwar Japan and Germany

• How can you tell if a country’s labor cost are too high and productivity too low?– Note whether foreign or domestic invest there– If domestic businesses park their money overseas

(flight capital) signs of a problem • Too many regulations • High taxes• State takeovers• Strike-happy unions• Crime• Corruption

– Clean these up and you can have rapid growth

Modern Mexico

mexico. mexico’s key institutions before 1924: –presidents came/left office –not normal way...

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