mexico un juego de serpientes y escaleras? jorge g. gonzalez trinity university
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Vital Signs Is the link alive?TRANSCRIPT
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MEXICO¿Un juego de serpientes y escaleras?
Jorge G. GonzalezTrinity University
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Recent Economic and Political Events
• Economic recovery in the U.S.• Government gridlock• Political scandals (AMLO and PRI)• Mexico – U.S. relationship
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Vital Signs
• Is the link alive?
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50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
U.S. Mexico
Industrial Production Index(January 2000 = 100)
Source: Banco de México and FED www.banxico.org.mx; www.federalreserve.gov
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Vital Signs
• Is the link alive?• GDP growth
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Real GDP% yearly change
Source: INEGI www.inegi.gob.mx
-10
-5
0
5
10
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
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Vital Signs
• Is the link alive?• GDP growth• Direct foreign investment
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Foreign Direct InvestmentBillions of Dollars
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
2.64.8 4.4 4.4
11.0 9.5 9.2
12.812.4
13.5
17.2
27.5
17.3
12.9
18.217.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
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Debt Market Foreign Investment
Billions of Dollars
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
0.90.6
0.1 -0.9 0.0
0.9
0.1
0.9
5.2
3.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
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Stock Market Foreign Investment
Billions of Dollars
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
2.8 3.2
-0.7
3.8
0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1
-2.5
3.4
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
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Vital Signs
• Is the link alive?• GDP growth• Direct foreign investment• Super Peso and foreign sector
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Exchange RatePesos per U.S. Dollar
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
456789101112
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
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Exchange RatePesos per U.S. Dollar
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
456789101112
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
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1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Inflation Differential vs. Exchange Rate
Inflation
Exchange Rate
317
219
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
94 - I 95 - I 96 - I 97 - I 98 - I 99 - I 00 - I 01 - I 02 - I 03 - I 04 - I 05 - I
Merchandise TradeBillions of Dollars
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
Imports
Exports
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Family RemittancesBillions of Dollars
4.2 4.9 4.7 5.9 6.68.9 9.8
13.416.6
20.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
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Family RemittancesBillions of Dollars
4.2 4.9 4.7 5.9 6.68.9 9.8
13.416.6
20.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
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Vital Signs
• Is the link alive?• GDP growth• Direct foreign investment• Super Peso and foreign sector• Federal government balance
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0.2 0.0 0.0
-0.7
-1.1 -1.0 -1.0-0.7
-1.1
-0.6-0.2 -0.1
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Government BalanceBalance / GDP
Source: SHCP www.shcp.gob.mx
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Vital Signs
• Is the link alive?• GDP growth• Direct foreign investment• Super Peso and foreign sector• Federal government balance• War on inflation
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Inflation
Source: Banco de México www.banxico.org.mx
7.05
51.97
27.70
15.7218.61
12.328.96
4.40 5.703.98 5.19 3.33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
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Vital Signs
• Is the link alive?• GDP growth• Direct Foreign Investment• Super Peso and Foreign Sector• Federal Government Balance• War on Inflation
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Political Environment
•Presidential elections
Felipe Calderón Roberto Madrazo Andrés López Obrador
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Political Environment
•Presidential elections•Structural reform paralysis
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• Incredible transformation with stability
• Fox’s legacy: Separation of powers• Much work to be done• Grave danger: Rule of law
A Game of Chutes and Ladders?
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A Game of Chutes and Ladders?