mexicos land certification program: rollout and impact on voting behavior marco gonzalez-navarro,...

Mexico’s Land Certification Program: Rollout and Impact

on Voting BehaviorMarco Gonzalez-Navarro, Alain de Janvry, and

Elisabeth SadouletApril 2010

Mexico’s First Land Reform

• Large land redistribution program (1917-1992)• Distributed over 100 million ha to 3.5 million

families (>50% of Mexican territory)• Strong restrictions to sales and rentals• Within an ejido 3 types of land: Individual

plots, communal lands and residential plots• Over time restrictions became onerous: Illegal

rental and sales markets, informal settlements, presence of posesionarios (non-ejidatarios who use land)

• Designed as a vote control mechanism by PRI?

Mexico’s Second Land Reform (1992)

• Allowed rental, sales and sharecropping• Established a national land certification

program Procede (1992-2006)• Before certificates rolled out:

– Agrarian tribunals (to solve land disputes)– Rural attorney’s office – National rural land registry office– Established the figure of “Assembly of Ejidatarios”

as a legally competent body to accept or reject Procede program, to determine land allocation inside the ejido, and to vote on transformation into fully private property

Procede Land Certification Program (1992-2006)• Had an office in every state• Objective: Maximize number of ejidos certified and area

certified• Procedure:

1. Agent visits ejido authorities and offers program2. Assembly of Initiation is summoned and vote is held to authorize

Procede to begin (simple majority)3. Procede goes to ejido to obtain contour of ejido, and interior

partition (individual plots, common lands, residential plots) (Comparison to ejido creation documents)

4. Proposed division is presented and exhibited5. All land disputes must be solved before proceeding: by agreement

or in agrarian tribunals6. Finalization assembly is held to authorize partition of ejido

(supermajority)7. Land Registry office produces certificates for all ejido: Individual

certificates, common area shares, residential plot titles

Land Certified by 1993

Starting Date of ProcedeCH

IAPA

S

OAX

ACA

GU

ERRE

RO

MIC

HOAC

AN

SIN

ALO

A

SON

ORA

YUCA

TAN

VERA

CRU

Z

GU

ANAJ

UAT

O

TOTA

L

SAN

LU

IS P

OTO

SI

QU

ERET

ARO

NAY

ARIT

COAH

UIL

A

TABA

SCO

TAM

AULI

PAS

JALI

SCO

HIDA

LGO

CHIH

UAH

UA

DURA

NG

O

QU

INTA

NA

ROO

ZACA

TECA

S

MEX

ICO

NU

EVO

LEO

N

BAJA

CAL

IF. S

UR

BAJA

CAL

IFO

RNIA

PUEB

LA

CAM

PECH

E

MO

RELO

S

AGU

ASCA

LIEN

TES

TLAX

CALA

COLI

MA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1996

1993

2006

Number of ejidosPercent of ejidos

29%

61%

Number of ejidos

Correlates of Start Date(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

Ejido size and endowmentMembers 0.0068 0.0196 0.032 0.0287 0.0291 0.0294 0.021 0.0258

(3.77)** (11.40)** (16.34)** (15.07)** (15.27)** (14.92)** (9.74)** (12.86)**Total area (ha) 0.0001

(5.39)**Total area/member (ha) 0.0039 0.0056 0.0024 0.0023 0.0033 0.0034 0.0004

(2.04)* (3.23)** (1.33) (1.27) (1.76) (1.85) (0.20)Share in common 0.095 0.1134 0.0791 0.0734 0.0802 0.0773 0.0466

(1.40) (1.86) (1.38) (1.29) (1.40) (1.36) (0.79)Share in parcels -0.1657 -0.1771 -0.16 -0.1452 -0.2795 -0.2565 -0.2359

(3.22)** (3.69)** (3.31)** (3.01)** (4.03)** (3.68)** (3.30)**Ratio posesionarios/members 1.3816 2.4876 2.185 2.2454 2.1302 1.8964 2.005

(4.93)** (9.75)** (8.92)** (9.18)** (8.52)** (7.55)** (8.06)**Ratio avecindados/members -0.7104 -0.1476 -0.1285 -0.0637 -0.0686 -0.1269 0.1602

(4.24)** (0.98) (0.90) (0.45) (0.48) (0.89) (1.09)Year of first dotation 0.2682 0.2566 0.243 0.2127 0.2075 0.2224

(23.45)** (23.12)** (21.41)** (17.62)** (16.95)** (18.65)**Number of members at creation 0.0138 0.0116 0.0124 0.0135 0.0083 0.0148

(5.58)** (4.85)** (5.18)** (5.25)** (3.08)** (5.58)**Opportunities, characterized by the localities associated to ejidos

Distance to nearest city (pop > 25,000) 0.0023 0.0021 0.0017 0.0019 -0.0013(4.20)** (3.94)** (2.93)** (3.26)** (2.49)*

Share active in labor force -0.3778 -1.7667 -2.7045 -7.677(0.21) (0.89) (1.34) (4.02)**

Share non ag. in occupied population -2.2976 -0.912 -1.4392 -6.1902(2.39)* (0.84) (1.32) (5.97)**

Share of population with more than high school 11.145 18.1751 12.7724 27.5742(1.59) (2.02)* (1.41) (2.98)**

Share of pop. with high school -20.5442 -8.7086 -13.9341 -2.5456(4.03)** (1.40) (2.22)* (0.42)

PovertyLocality marginality index 2.2146 2.1029 3.3106

(5.91)** (5.57)** (9.11)**Average number of inhabitants per room 0.7734 0.6653 1.472

(2.24)* -1.92 (4.57)**Observations 27,553 26,219 24,803 23,422 23,365 21,911 21,225 21,911State FE 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 No

Other controls

Conflicts and

politics

Date of the Information Assembly (in months since Jan 1, 1992)

Date Certificates AwardedCH

IAPA

S

OAX

ACA

GU

ERRE

RO

MIC

HOAC

AN

SIN

ALO

A

SON

ORA

YUCA

TAN

VERA

CRU

Z

GU

ANAJ

UAT

O

TOTA

L

SAN

LU

IS P

OTO

SI

QU

ERET

ARO

NAY

ARIT

COAH

UIL

A

TABA

SCO

TAM

AULI

PAS

JALI

SCO

HIDA

LGO

CHIH

UAH

UA

DURA

NG

O

QU

INTA

NA

ROO

ZACA

TECA

S

MEX

ICO

NU

EVO

LEO

N

BAJA

CAL

IFO

RNIA

BAJA

CAL

IFO

RNIA

SU

R

PUEB

LA

CAM

PECH

E

MO

RELO

S

AGU

ASCA

LIEN

TES

TLAX

CALA

COLI

MA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1996

1993

2006

Percent of ejidos

5.2%

42%

90%

Length of Certificate Procedure

MedianMean

05

1015

Per

cent

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96Length of Procede procedure in months

Ejido and Non-Ejido Votes.1

.2.3

.4.5

.6

1995 2000 2005 2010year

PRI Non-Ejidos PAN Non-EjidosPRD Non-Ejidos PRI EjidosPAN Ejidos PRD Ejidos

PRI Vote Share 1994.2

.4.6

.8P

RI S

har

e

-156 -120 -84 -48 -12 24 60 96 132 168Months Certified

Other years 1994


.4.6

.8P

RI S

har

e


Other years 1997


.4.6

.8P

RI S

har

e


Other years 2000


.4.6

.8P

RI S

har

e


Other years 2003


.4.6

.8P

RI S

har

e


Other years 2006

No Evidence for Vote Control.6

.61

.62

.63

Pa

rty

in P

ow

er

Sh

are

Certified by election dayNot Certified by election day Certified by election day

1994

.52

.53

.54

.55

Pa

rty

in P

ow

er

Sh

are

Not Certified by election day Certified by election day

1997

.19

.2.2

1.2

2P

art

y in

Po

we

r S

har

e


2003

.1.1

5.2

.25

Pa

rty

in P

ow

er

Sh

are


2006

2 Year Window Around Election Year

No Evidence for Reciprocity

.21

.22

.23

.24

PA

N S

har

e

.46

.48

.5P

RI S

har

e

Certified by PRI Certified by PAN

PRI PAN

2003

.276

.278

.28

.282

PA

N S

har

e

.365

.37

.375

.38

PR

I Sh

are


PRI PAN

2006

.26

.28

.3P

AN

Sh

are

.405

.41

.415

PR

I Sh

are


PRI PAN

2009

Ejidos Certified in (1999-2001)

No Evidence for Moving to the Right 0

.2.4

.6P

AN

Sha

re

-24 -18 -12 -6 0 6 12 18 24Months Certified

Other years 1994

No Evidence for Moving to the Right0

.2.4

.6P

AN

Sha

re


Other years 1997


.2.4

.6P

AN

Sha

re


Other years 2000


.2.4

.6P

AN

Sha

re


Other years 2003


.2.4

.6P

AN

Sha

re


Other years 2006

Conclusions• Mexico’s second land reform was successful in providing land

certificates to 91% of ejidos and comunidades• Program was voluntary and accompanied by the creation of

agrarian tribunals, agrarian attorneys, and a rural land registry• Rollout was guided by efficiency concerns and in response to

demand from beneficiaries• Although poorer ejidos certified later, the program reached the

vast majority of target population • Opposed to what political scientists predicted: we do not find

changes in voting behavior correlated to land certificates• Procede shows that large scale land reform can be efficiently

implemented without political backslash• Future research questions:

– Did titles improve production and productivity? How?– Did titles impact migration towards urban areas?

mexicos land certification program: rollout and impact on voting behavior marco gonzalez-navarro,...

Documents

date slide

land certificates

reciprocity slide

right slide

types of land

land allocation

vote control slide

private property slide