mgmnt x115 business statistics(online) summer 2014

5/20/2018 MGMNT X115 Business Statistics(Online) Summer 2014

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MGMNT X 115Business Statistics (Online)

Instructor: Dr. David S. Kung Quarter: Summer 2014

Meetings: As needed onlinefrom 6/23/2014 through 9/14/2014.

Office Hrs.: By appointment(virtual chat) or via e-mail [email protected].

Instructor Brief Biography

David S. Kung is currently a business professor and is engaged in business andgovernment consulting global-wise. Professor Kung is experienced in and conducts

research in the areas of International Management and Trade, Community Development,

Environmental and Energy Policy, Education Policy, Supply Chains Management, and

Information Technology Policy with numerous publications and seminar presentationsover decades. Prior to joining academia, Professor Kung served in various management

positions in Fortune500-sized corporations in the utility, banking, healthcare, and

consulting industries. Professor Kung received his Ph.D. and MBA from the University

of Texas, Austin and B.Sc. from the University of Delaware.

Course Description

This course explores elements of probability, probability distributions, estimation and

confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, simple and multiple linear regression, indexnumbers, and time series analysis. Descriptive and inferential methods for analyzing and

interpreting quantitative and qualitative data are applied to strategic and tactical business

issues and decisions. Techniques for using statistical software and the data analysiscapabilities of Microsoft Excel are integrated throughout the course.NOTE: All instruction is internet-based.

Prerequisite: X 110 Mathematics for Management or consent of instructor

Course Objectives and Learning Outcomes

The intent of this course is to provide the fundamental quantitative knowledge necessary

for professionals to utilize the results of analyses to enhance the decision-making process.In the business environment today, organizations typically are not afforded much margin

for errors, whether it is in strategic or operational issues. It is more critical than ever
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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before for management to be prudent in making decisions. Even though decisions

normally should not be driven by quantitative factors alone, there is no doubt that

relevant quantitative analysis will enhance the quality of the decisions.

This course will enhance students ability to perform the quantitative analysis necessary,

understand the usefulness and limitations of the methods, recognize situations where themethods can be applied beneficially, and aware of the issues involved when utilizing theresults of the analyses. Coverage is topical and will include statistics principles such as

descriptive statistics, probability distributions, sampling techniques, inferential statistics,

regression and correlation analysis, time-series analysis, and non-parametric statistics.The introduction of concepts via cases in decision-making related to operations and

strategies is preferred whenever appropriate. This will allow us to put analytical results

in realistic business environments.

This course enhances each participants preparation for the employment of quantitative

techniques applicable to the MBA program or UCLA Extensions Certificate program. It

also satisfies as a Business-related elective course in the Accounting Certificate or as arequired course in the Business Administration Certificate.

At a minimum, upon completion of this course, each student should be able to

accomplish the following:

Descriptive Statistics:

Organize raw data into a frequency distribution; portray the frequency distributionin a histogram/frequency polygon.

Calculate the arithmetic mean/median/mode explaining theadvantages/disadvantages and usage of each.

Calculate/explain the characteristics/uses/advantages/disadvantages of the

variance/standard deviation.

Calculate/understand the characteristics and uses of a normal distribution.Inferential Statistics:

Explain various sampling methods; define/construct a sampling distribution ofsample means.

Understand the implications of the Central Limit Theorem in businessenvironments.

Develop confidence intervals and interpret their usage in business.

Define hypothesis testing and the 5 step testing procedure; distinguish between a

one- and two-tailed test.

Describe/Understand Sampling errors and their implications.

Conduct a test of hypothesis about a population mean and the difference between

two population means. Define a proportion and perform test of hypothesis for one and two populations.

Calculate a correlation coefficient; test its significance; calculate coefficient ofdetermination and interpret the results.Forecasting:

Develop a simple linear regression model; calculate standard error; discussassumptions underlying the model; construct confidence intervals for predictions.

Develop a multiple regression model and conduct a test to determine the model's


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usefulness.

Perform Forecasting utilizing Time Series Analysis models and demonstrate withcommon business practices.

Non-Parametric Statistics:

Perform the Goodness-of-Fit test(Chi-Square) with demonstrated interpretation of

results.

The introduction of concepts via cases in decision-making related to business operationsand strategies is preferred whenever appropriate. This will allow us to put analytical

results in realistic business environments.

LEARNING METHODOLOGY AND COURSE ACTIVITIES

Statistical analysis for decision making is not about crunching numbers. It is about

understanding numbers by utilizing sound approaches so as to make better decisions inthe business environment. Therefore whenever possible, computer software packages

will be utilized. Throughout the course, analyses will be performed based on Excel.Students will benefit with working knowledge of the advance knowledge of spreadsheet

software.

The learning methodology used in this course consists of lectures, assigned readings,

class discussion, and assignments/cases. Remember a major theme is for us to help eachother as much as possible. So sharing of works and attempts in Discussionboard is

critical, especially with the cases. We are not competing with each other as much as

working together to comprehend the materials and assignments.

Each week the instructor will begin by describing the main topic(s) for the week via

email and announcement when you enter Blackboard, the online courseware. Sometimes,the topics will require us to carry over to another week or so. For a week by weekschedule, students can access via Syllabus or at the end of this document. For each week,

the materials are normally in the Course Materials area in Blackboard. Typically there

will be lecture notes, PowerPoint file, assignments, and other materials such as case file.Discussions, labeled by each week, will be where the students will proceed to participate

in discussion, ask questions, retrieve further information and explanations, and post

responses. If there are individual issues that the student will prefer discussing with theinstructor privately, then email or phone will be the best options. Typically a student

should check the Discussions area twice or more each week at a minimum so as to

retrieve new postings from other students and the instructor. A good practice is to break

the week into two/three time frames: start off by doing all the readings and assignments,then proceed on to Discussions and complete assignments for the remaining of the week.

Please keep in mind that the session/discussions are spread over the whole week and not

just one day. Dont wait till the end of the week to start your work.

It is critical for students to keep in mind that the purpose of this course is to help you in

understanding the fundamental value of statistical analysis in decision making. Dont get

buried in the number crunching and lose track of the purpose of the techniques. It is very


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likely that students will forget the process of the techniques over time. But once you

truly understand the fundamental concept, it should be with you all the time.

This course is going to rely heavily on discussions with the instructor and other students,

and hands-on practices. A key role of the instructor is to simplify the materials for

students to comprehend. There are three levels of instructions: the instructors lecturenotes(simplest); Powerpoint files& notes(average); textbook(detailed). Ideally, the firsttwo levels are all you need to comprehend the concepts. The Powerpoint files can be

used for reference and provide more detail information. Unless specified, the textbook is

usually not quoted and you are responsible for the content regarding the subject matters.Of course, the instructor may refer you to certain section of the textbook for illustrations.

Exercises and Case Analyses:

There will be business cases(7 total) assigned during the term in order to re-affirm the

concepts covered. All cases, except Household Income, are real-world situation that

actually happened in a company. It will give you much better appreciation of how thesemethods are applied in business. At times, these cases are used to introduce new

concepts throughout the course. Students are encouraged to make an attempt to analyze

the cases and turn in a brief report in spreadsheet via Discussion board, participate in the

discussion/review of such during the week. The instructor will also provide supportwhen appropriate. Each case is worth 10% of the total. (70%).

Exercises as assignments from the textbook will also be given throughout the term. Wemay also collect real data for data analysis purpose. It is at times more practical this way.

All assignments and case analyses are due before the end of the week after, so you should

have enough time to work on, discuss any issues, and share with other students, before

you finalize your work. Exercises are worth 30% of the total. (30%).

The instructor will not accept late submission of assignment without prior approval by

the instructor.

Grading

Business Cases 70%

Exercises 30%

A = 94100% B+= 8889% C+= 7879% D+= 6869%

A= 90 93% B = 8387% C = 7377% D = 6067%

B= 8082% C= 7072% F = below 60%


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Resources (Required)

Text: Statistical Techniques in Business & Economics, Lind, Marchal, Mason, McGraw-Hill Irwin, 15

thEdition. ISBN: 978-0-07-340180-5

Readings: A series of instructor-prepared documents and spreadsheets will augmentthe text material, particularly in the area of applications.

System & Software Requirements

Course participants will need (1) internet access via a web browser for interactionpurposes, and (2) Microsoft Excel (2007, 2010 or later) access for computational

purposes.

Getting Set Up to Use Blackboard for Online CoursesUCLA Extensions online courses use an application calledBlackboardfor course

discussions, assignments, and alerts. After youve enrolled in your online course, youllreceive a Welcome email with your Blackboard login information.

Blackboard OrientationIf youre a new online student or just interested in learning more about Blackboard, we

strongly suggest you view the Blackboard orientation, which takes just a few minutes. A

link to the orientation is available atuclaextension.blackboard.com.

For detailed Technical Instruction, please visit:https://www.uclaextension.edu/Pages/str/OnlineCourseTechSpecs-How-To.aspx

Academic Integrity

Please consult the following link regarding policies on student conduct:https://www.uclaextension.edu/alc/Pages/conduct.aspx
http://uclaextension.blackboard.com/http://uclaextension.blackboard.com/http://uclaextension.blackboard.com/https://www.uclaextension.edu/Pages/str/OnlineCourseTechSpecs-How-To.aspxhttps://www.uclaextension.edu/Pages/str/OnlineCourseTechSpecs-How-To.aspxhttps://www.uclaextension.edu/alc/Pages/conduct.aspxhttps://www.uclaextension.edu/alc/Pages/conduct.aspxhttps://www.uclaextension.edu/alc/Pages/conduct.aspxhttps://www.uclaextension.edu/Pages/str/OnlineCourseTechSpecs-How-To.aspxhttp://uclaextension.blackboard.com/


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Weekly Outline

NOTE: The following schedule is tentative and the instructor reserves the right to changeas per the dynamics of the situation.

WEEK TOPICS ASSIGNMENTS

1 Data types. Descriptive statistics. Case: Household Income case

2 Probability distributions. Normal

Distribution

Ch 7 Ex 27, 28, 30

3 Inferential Statistics. Sampling techniques.

Distribution of Sampling Means/Sampling

Distribution.

Case: Lorex Pharmaceuticals

4 Utilizing Sampling Results: point &interval estimates.

Proportion. Student-t distribution.

Case: Home Education Inc.

5 Utilizing Sampling Results(continued):

Hypothesis Testing(Single-population).

Case: Amore Frozen Foods

Ch 10 Ex 31,34

6 Hypothesis Testing(Two-population).

Sampling Risks.

Ch 11 Ex 29,33

Case: City Center Hospital

7 Three or more populations: Analysis ofVariance(ANOVA).

Ch 12 Ex 43,44

8 Forecasting: Time-Series Analysis. Case: Wachovia Bank

9 Forecasting: Regression & CorrelationAnalysis.

Ch 13 Ex 48

10 Forecasting: Multiple Regression Analysis Case: Hightower Department

Stores

11 Non-parametric Statistics: Chi-Square. Ch 17 Ex 7,8,34,36

12 Course Review.

[X115SYL(Online)2014summer]

mgmnt x115 business statistics(online) summer 2014

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