MGW 2010 middle east war badGrove/PetitMiddle East Instability BAD***Yes Escalation***.....................................................................................................................2Yes escalation (1).........................................................................................................................................................3-4Yes escalation!eneric.................................................................................................................................................."Yes escalationiran.......................................................................................................................................................#Yes escalationira$.......................................................................................................................................................%***A2 oil link***............................................................................................................................8&o 'rice dro' (1).............................................................................................................................................................(&o Price )ro' (2)..........................................................................................................................................................10*+tPea, -il...............................................................................................................................................................11*+tGlobal )emand....................................................................................................................................................12*+t.ommodit/ *+c0an!e.........................................................................................................................................13*+t-P*....................................................................................................................................................................1"*+t.0ina...................................................................................................................................................................1#&o 1ransition................................................................................................................................................................1%***A2 Renewables***.................................................................................................................18&ot oil 'rice de'endent2ac.......................................................................................................................................1(&ot oil 'rice de'endent1ar........................................................................................................................................202enewables 3ail............................................................................................................................................................214olar 5ad.......................................................................................................................................................................224olar bad e+ts................................................................................................................................................................234ilver e+ts......................................................................................................................................................................23Wind 5ad......................................................................................................................................................................24***A2 warming***......................................................................................................................2562 warmin! (1).......................................................................................................................................................2#-2%*+twarmin! nat7ral...................................................................................................................................................28*+twarmin! not si!ni9icant.......................................................................................................................................2(*+tnot eno7!0 97el....................................................................................................................................................30*+twarmin! :nevitable..............................................................................................................................................31***A2 nuclear power***.............................................................................................................32;4 n7,e 'ower increase now........................................................................................................................................33&7,e 'ower t7rnterror/'roli9.....................................................................................................................................34&ot 4olve!eneric (1)............................................................................................................................................3"-3#&7clear 'ower 9ails7rani7m s0orta!e.......................................................................................................................3%*conom/ t7rn................................................................................................................................................................381errorism t7rn...............................................................................................................................................................3(62 Plants sa9e (1)....................................................................................................................................................40-416ccidents t7rn...............................................................................................................................................................426ccident e+ts.................................................................................................................................................................4362 Warmin!n7,e 'ower not solve (1).................................................................................................................44-4"***Instability goo cars***......................................................................................................!"&o n7,e 'ower (1)...................................................................................................................................................4%-48*+'andin! !loball/ now...............................................................................................................................................4(1MGW 2010 middle east war badGrove/Petit***Yes Escalation***2MGW 2010 middle east war badGrove/PetitYes escalation (1)#uclear war in t$e %ile East is still likely..0arles 3. &oran is 6ndrew W. Mellon Pro9essor o9 :nternational 2elations at s 4c0ool o9 6dvanced :nternational 4t7dies? Was0in!ton ). @:s MaAor War -bsoleteB 6n *+c0an!eC 47rvival? vol. 41? no. 2? 47mmer 1'''? ''. 13(D"210ere is a dee'er 'oint 0ere. :t seems wron! to sa/ t0at maAor war 0as F!one o7t o9 9as0ion>? or t0at it Fno lon!er serves t0e '7r'oses 9or w0ic0 it was desi!ned>? bot0 '0rases 9rom t0e article. War 0as never been in 9as0ion? nor is it Fdesi!ned>b/ 'eo'le. 2at0er? 'eo'le0ave st7mbled into it. 10is is more t0an a $7ibble over lan!7a!e. 10e war t0at was la7nc0ed in 1(14b/ statesmen willin! to !o to war was t0e war o9 1(14. &oneo9 t0ese statesmen t0o7!0tt0at t0e/ were t0en la7nc0in! also t0e war o9 1(1"? t0e war o9 1( 1# ? 1( 1% and 1(18. 4imilarl/? t0e war t0at statesmen willed in 1(3( was not t0e war o9 1(40D4". (Per0a's =itler was an e+ce'tion? b7t 'robabl/ not even =itler.) 5/ 1(18? and indeed b/ 1(4"? in man/ wa/s t0is ,ind o9 war seemed as 'ointless to t0e 'o'7lations o9 *7ro'e as a small n7clear war. 6nd? o9 co7rse? t0e 4econd World War did end wit0 a small n7clear war.A $ost o) regional $ot spots $a*e t$e potential to egenerate into global war=arlan /llman (senior associate at .enter 9or 4trate!ic and :nternational 4t7dies) ve not seen be9ore. -n t0e s7''l/ side? we>re seein! it is str7!!lin! to ,ee' 7'. 10at>s t0e ener!/ c0allen!e.C More t0an an/ ot0er co7ntr/? .0ina re'resents t0e sco'e o9 t0at c0allen!e. 6s it t7rned into a !lobal economic be0emot0 over t0e last decade? .0ina also became a maAor ener!/ 7ser. :ts econom/ 0as !rown at a 97rio7s 'ace o9 abo7t 10 'ercent a /ear since t0e 1((0s? li9tin! nearl/ 300 million 'eo'le o7t o9 'overt/. 57t ra'id ind7strialiKation 0as come at a 'riceE oil demand 0as more t0an tri'led since 1(80? t7rnin! a co7ntr/ t0at was once sel9-s799icient into a net oil im'orter. :ndia and .0ina are 0ome to abo7t a t0ird o9 07manit/. Peo'le t0ere are demandin! access to electricit/? cars? and cons7mer !oods and can increasin!l/ a99ord to com'ete wit0 t0e West 9or access to reso7rces. :n doin! so? t0e two 6sian !iants are 'ro9o7ndl/ trans9ormin! t0e world>s ener!/ balance. 1oda/? .0ina cons7mes onl/ a t0ird as m7c0 oil as t0e ;nited 4tates? w0ic0 b7rns a $7arter o9 t0e world>s oil eac0 da/. 5/ 2030? :ndia and .0ina to!et0er will im'ort as m7c0 oil as t0e ;nited 4tates and s oil cons7m'tion wo7ld be more t0an 200 million barrels a da/? instead o9 t0e 8" million barrels it is toda/. &o e+'ert re!ards t0at level o9 'rod7ction as conceivable.More realisticall/? !lobal demand is e+'ected to rise to abo7t 11" million barrels a da/ b/ 2030? a level t0at is li,el/ to ta+ t0e world>s abilit/ to '7m' more oil o7t o9 t0e !ro7nd. 6lread/? t0e world is r7nnin! on a limited c7s0ion o9 s'are ca'acit/O an/ interr7'tion in s7''lies? w0et0er 9rom 07rricanes or armed con9lict? ca7ses 'rices to s'i,e. @We don>t 0ave an/ s0oc, absorbers?C Mr. Goldstein said. 3or oil com'anies? 0i!0 'rices 0ave set o99 a 9renKied searc0 9or new so7rces aro7nd t0e world. 69ter a lon! l7ll in investments t0ro7!0 most o9 t0e 1((0s beca7se o9 low 'rices? maAor oil com'anies 0ave invested billions o9 dollars to brin! in more s7''lies.10e tro7bleis t0at t0ese bi! new develo'ments ta,e a lon! time? and com'anies 0ave been 0obbled b/ 0i!0er costs. 10e cost o9 drillin! ri!s? 9or e+am'le? t0e basic tool o9 t0e trade? 0as do7bled in recent /ears. 6nal/sts sa/ it will ta,e time? b7t new s7''lies will event7all/ wor, t0eir wa/ to mar,et. 47''lies 0ave also been 0am'ered b/ 'olitical tension in t0e Persian G7l9? t0e war in :ra$? devastatin! 07rricanes in t0e oil-'rod7cin! G7l9 o9 Me+ico? 'rod7ction di99ic7lties in PeneK7ela and violence in &i!eria>s oil-ric0 'rovince. Man/ o9 t0ese !eo'olitical 9actors 0ave contrib7tedto a 'olitical ris, 'remi7m vario7sl/ estimated at U2" to U"0 a barrel. 2ecentl/? in A7st nine wee,s? oil A7m'ed 9rom U%" to U(" a barrel 9or little a''arent reason.@3i9t/-dollar-a-barrel oil seems so 9ar awa/ at t0is 'oint?C said 10omas 5entK? a senior ener!/ anal/st at 5&P Paribas in &ew Yor,? citin! a 9i!7re t0at seemed an im'ossibl/ 0i!0 'rice 9or oil onl/ a 9ew /ears a!o. @-il will sto' risin!w0en we see demand destr7ction. We 0aven>t seen t0at /et.C 10MGW 2010 middle east war badGrove/PetitNo Price Drop (2)2.3 .ommoity E5c$angeMarti Auimette.J2e'eat 69ter MeE -il Price 2ises are not a ta+ increase.J *ssa/ and *99l7via. 24 -ct. 2,,3. 0tt'E//bi!'ict7re.t/'e'ad.com/writin!/2003/10/re'eatLa9terLme.0tml-9 co7rse oil 'rices are 9i+ed and mani'7lated. 57t not b/ -P*.. :n t0e mid-ei!0ties oil 'rices be!an to be determined b/ t0e commodities *+c0an!es. 10ere are a co7'le aro7nd t0e world b7t t0e most im'ortant one is in t0e ;4? t0e &/ne+ .ommodities *+c0an!e. 10e &/ne+ 7nre!7lated commodities e+c0an!e is t0e 9orce t0at determines oil 'rices. 5/ 0oo, or b/ croo,? : mi!0t add? beca7se it is an 7nre!7lated e+c0an!e. 10o7!0ts o9 *nron and t0ose 97t7res traders sa/in! Jb7rn bab/ b7rnJ comes to mind. )oes it rin! a bell to an/oneB -9 co7rse oil 'rices are mani'7lated A7st li,e t0e stoc, e+c0an!es were be9ore t0e 1(2( mar,et cras0. *ven t0e stoc, e+c0an!es contin7e to be mani'7lated to a de!ree. .0an!es in t0e 'rice o9 oil wor, t0is wa/? investors (: 're9er to call man/ on9t0em mani'7lators) b7/in! oil 97t7res contracts ma,e t0e 'rice o9 oil !o 7' and sellin! oil 97t7res contracts ma,e t0e 'rice !o down. (4ince t0e e+c0an!e is 7nre!7lated it is a 'er9ect 'lace to la7ndr/ mone/.)Prett/ sim'le? /o7 donGt 0ave to be a roc,et scientist to 9i!7re t0at one o7t.10e wa/ oil com'anies 9i+/mani'7late oil 'rices is t0at t0e/ ban to!et0er as a !ro7' and e+cessivel/ b7/ oil 97t7res contracts. 10is ma,es oil 'rice 97t7res !o 7' and as a res7lt? t0e 0i!0er oil 'rices are 7sed as an e+c7se to raise 'rices at t0e '7m' or 0ome 0eatin! oil levels. =ow convenient.2&3 A=E.)avid ?rancis. J:9 4a7dis P7m' More -il? Will Gasoline Prices 3allBJ 10e .0ristain 4cience Monitor. 3 t )all unless eman oes.t seen t0at /et.C13MGW 2010 middle east war badGrove/PetitEt %o$$odity Ec&angeAil traers will ensure t$at t$e price o) oil oes not )all. .oyote 6log. JWit0er 47''l/ and )emand? :n 3avor o9 t0e -il 1radin! .abalBJ )is'atc0es 9rom a small b7siness. s ener!/ balance.1oda/? .0ina cons7mes onl/ a t0ird as m7c0 oil as t0e ;nited 4tates? w0ic0 b7rns a $7arter o9 t0e world>s oil eac0 da/. 5/ 2030? :ndia and .0ina to!et0er will im'ort as m7c0 oil as t0e ;nited 4tates and ," -il )ail/4e'tember 22? 200# 3rida/4*.1:-&E 3*61;2* 41-2:*4H*&G1=E "%1words=*6)H:&*E 2enewables 2is, Hosin! Moment7m Wit0 -il Price )ro'5YH:&*E Iat0erine =ill? &ew Yor, :n contrast? an oil 'rice dro' wo7ld 0ave little im'act on t0e solar sector? accordin! to &oa0 Ia/e o9 t0e 4olar *ner!/ :nd7stries 6ssociation. Hi,ewise? t0e wind sector wo7ld be lar!el/ 7na99ected. 10e onl/ ris, t0e/ 9ace 9roman oil 'rice dro' is t0at investor co7ld dro' o99? as t0e !eneral conce't o9 renewables wo7ld not !enerate as m7c0 b7KK in a climate o9 low oil 'rices as t0e/ do toda/. -t0erwise t0ese ind7stries wo7ld remain 0ealt0/ -- demand c7rrentl/ e+ceeds s7''l/ bot0 9or solar '0otovoltaics and wind t7rbines.21MGW 2010 middle east war badGrove/Petit(ene)ables *ailRenewables won>t catc$ on : ! reasons(windO solar) (9ossil 97els are !ettin! c0ea'er? v7lnerable to 'rice swin!s? 'oliticall/ v7lnerable? s,ittis0 investors)Pa7l Roberts( ener!/ e+'ert and writer 9or =ar'ers?2,,!? 10e *nd o9 -il? '!. 201-2-t0er 'roblems become more a''arent w0en we loo, more closel/ at cost.6lt0o7!0 wind and solar are !ettin! c0ea'er? 'ro'onents o9ten overloo, t0e 9act t0at t0eir com'etitors are also !ettin! c0ea'er and will contin7e to do so.t competePa7l Roberts( ener!/ e+'ert and writer 9or =ar'ers?2,,!? 10e *nd o9 -il? '!. 1(1-257t t0ere are ot0er reasons 9or t0e slow rise o9 alternative ener!/ Dreasons t0at !o be/ond t0e !reed and d7'licit/ o9 individ7als or an en-trenc0ed s/stem. 3or all t0eir 07!e 'otential? most alternative tec0nolo!ies reall/ aren>t read/ 9or 'rime time. )es'ite decades o9 (2R))researc0 and develo'ment D and des'ite recent !rowt0 rates t0at rival t0at o9 com'7ters and cell '0ones D nearl/ ever/ maAor alternative tec0nolo!/ still s799ers 9rom serio7s en!ineerin! or economic drawbac,s. 67tomotive 97el cells are still man/ times more e+'ensive t0an even a vinta!e !asoline en!ine? and t0e/ ma/ re$7ire decades o9 wor, to be com'etitive. 4olar 'ower? even a9ter nearl/ t0irt/ /ears and man/ billions o9 dollars in 2 R )? still costs 9ive times as m7c0 as coal-9ired 'ower. 5e/ond $7estions o9 cost? t0ese tec0nolo!ies ma/ still 9ace in0erent limits in t0e $7alit/ o9 t0e ener!/ t0e/ 'ro d7ce? and w0ere and w0en t0e/ can be 7sed? t0at co7ld ,ee' t0em 9rom ass7min! a dominant s0are o9 t0e 97t7re ener!/ mi+.&espite consierable e*elopment( renewables will not signi)icantly contribute to energy prouctionGlenn0c$leee? 'resident o9 *ner!/ Mar,et and Polic/ 6nal/sis? s 0ard to 97ll/ com're0end. Metal leasin! s0enani!ans 0ave created t0e most b7llis0 con9i!7ration 'ossible. We 0ave 0ad c7rrent 'rod7ction r7nnin! m7c0 less t0an c7rrent cons7m'tion 9or man/ /ears. We 0ave 0ad silver inventories drawn down on an o7nce-9or-o7nce basis wit0 t0e amo7nt o9 t0e de9icit. We 0ave 0ad 'rod7cers and ind7strial cons7mers ali,e? become acc7stomed to a lon! term? arti9iciall/ de'ressed 'rice. We 0ave 'rod7cers and 7sers ali,e? s0ort t0e mar,et via leasin! and ot0er derivatives? settin! 7' t0e s'ectacle o9mass fnancial suicide. Blobal economic ecline will bring Armageon.Ht. .ol 1om 6earen (P0) &7clear *n!ineerin!) 6'ril 2" 2,,, 0tt'E//www.c0eniere.or!/corres'ondence/042"00X20-X20modi9ied.0tm