mhy530e decision making techniques dr. y. İlker topcu
TRANSCRIPT
MHY530E DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUES
Dr. Y. İlker TOPCU
www.ilkertopcu.net www.ilkertopcu.org www.ilkertopcu.info
www.facebook.com/yitopcu
twitter.com/yitopcu
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Credits: 3+0
ECTS Credits: 7.5
Type: Elective
Language: English
Web site: web.itu.edu.tr/topcuil/ya/MHY530E
Course information
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Multiple Criteria Decision Making Structuring the problem (Value Hierarchy, Cognitive
Mapping) Constructing the model (Scales, Normalization, Prioritiz’n) Analyzing the problem
Analytic Hierarchy Process / Analytic Network Process Elementary methods MAVT, SMARTS, SAW, WP, TOPSIS Outranking methods (PROMETHEE, ELECTRE)
Group decision making (Social choice)
Decision analysis Decision tables / payoff matrices Decision trees Utility theory
Course description
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1. to provide students practical techniques and decision support tools those help them to solve decision problems
2. to enable students to integrate judgments with other types of information in a logical and defensible manner
3. to improve students’ decision making skills, their ability to analyze problems systematically, and their confidence in their own decision making
Course objectives
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Students who pass the course gain knowledge, skill and competency in the following subjects:
1. identifying common errors and traps that prevent them from making effective decisions
2. learning how decision support systems relate to decision support
3. using a range of decision making techniques to improve the effectiveness of their decision making,
4. finding (choosing, ranking, or classifying) the best alternative for making a decision
Course learning outcomes
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Web site of the course Up-to-date lecture notes and supplements Solutions to exams and homework
Books Taylor B.W. 2012. Introduction to Management Science, Pearson
Education Inc., New Jersey. Render B., Stair Jr R.M., and Hanna M.E. 2011. Quantitative Analysis
for Management. Pearson Education Inc., New Jersey. Goodwin P., Wright G. 2010. Decision Analysis for Management
Judgment, John Wiley & Sons, New York. Saaty T.L. 2001. Decision Making for Leaders. RWS Publ., Pittsburg. Saaty T.L. 2005. Theory and Applications of the Analytic Network
Process. RWS Publ., Pittsburg. Vincke, Ph., 1992. Multi Criteria Decision Aid. John Wiley & Sons,
Inc., West Sussex
Web sites of other courses
References
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Final exam (30%), Midterm exams (40%),
Term project (30%)
Exams will be either “take home” or “open book”
Assessment Criteria
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Exams
Midterm exam 1
March 10, Take home
Midterm exam 2
April 21, Take home
Final exam
At school, Open book
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Term Project
Structuring, modeling, and analysing a multicriteria managerial decision making problem.
Business and governmental problems are welcome. Personal problems can not be used for the term project!
Groups will present their projects at the last week.
IMPORTANT DATES Deadline for 1st submission (proposal): March 3 Deadline for 2nd submission (literature survey): March 24 Deadline for final submission (report): April 28 Presentations: April 28,
May 5
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Do not!
Studying together to understand the material is fine, but the work you hand in is to be your own.
No cheating will be tolerated: A letter grade of F will be given!
Cheating and Plagiarism
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ScheduleDATE SUBJECT
Feb. 3 Introduction to Decision Making
Feb. 10 MCDM, Structuring the Problem (Value-Alternative focused thinking, Cognitive Mapping)
Feb. 17 Constructing the Decision Model (Scales, Normalization, Prioritization)
Feb. 24 The Analytic Hierarchy Process
Mar.03 The Analytic Network Process
Mar.10 MIDTERM (take home)
Mar.17 Analyzing the Problem (Elementary Methods, MAVT-SMARTS)
Mar.24 Analyzing the Problem (SAW, WP, TOPSIS, PROMETHEE)
Mar.31 Analyzing the Problem (ELECTRE), Decision Analysis (DM under Uncertainty & Risk)
Apr. 7 Decision Analysis (Utility, Decision Trees)
Apr. 14 Group Decision Making (Social Choice)
Apr. 21 MIDTERM (take home)
Apr. 28 PRESENTATIONS
May.05 PRESENTATIONS
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Prof. Dr. Y. İlker Topcu
Office address
Management Faculty C301, Maçka, Istanbul
Phone
(212) 293 1300 /2069 office - (532) 355 5045 mobile
Web site
www.ilkertopcu.net, www.ilkertopcu.org, www.ilkertopcu.info,
www.facebook.com/yitopcu, twitter.com/yitopcu
E-mail address
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Professor at Industrial Engineering department of ITU (2011)
Associate Professorship in Operations Research (2005)
Ph.D. in ITU Engineering Management programme (2000)
Integrated decision aid model for multi-attribute problem solving
Ph.D. research at Centre for Decision Research of Leeds University Business School (1998-1999)
Research interests
Decision Analysis, Multi Criteria Decision Making, Group Decision Making
Operations Research / Management Science
Logistics Management, Ethics in OR, Business Ethics, Transp’n, Energy, Bidding and Tender Systems, Scheduling