michael laws and his direct democracy experiment in wanganui
TRANSCRIPT
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Michael Laws and his Direct Democracy
Experiment in Wanganui
The effects of referendums on voter turnout and political participation in New Zealand
Steve Baron
Victoria University of Wellington, 2012
As part fulfilment for an Honours degree in Political Science. Updated 1st August 2012.
(7,279 words)
Phone 0211651882
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Abstract
New Zealand has had a long history with direct democracy. The first national
referendum was held in 1911 on the prohibition of the sale of liquor (Atkinson, 2003,
p.125), from then until 1987, New Zealand citizens voted regularly on the number of
licensed premises that could operate locally (Hughes, 1994, p.156 and in 1994, the
National led government introduced the Citizens' Initiated Referenda Act 1993. By
the introduction of the Local Electoral Act 2001 local authorities were given the right
to hold referendums. The focus of this study is to examine the effects of
referendums on voter turnout and political participation in New Zealand. In order to
explicate these effects, the study focuses on one particular New Zealand local
authority, the Wanganui District Council. Previous political participation studies of
referendum effects have often conflicted; this study adds to the conflict by
contradicting the most recent research by Tolbert & Smith (2005). The empirical
data from this research demonstrates a decrease in political participation at the
local authority level; yet interestingly, at the national level, in this particular
electorate, participation rates have remained consistent with the national general
election averages. The study suggests that this decreasing political participation at
the local level may be due to voter satisfaction and overall satisfaction with the
performance of the local authority political system, rather than apathy, voter fatigue
or disillusionment as is often assumed. The study also tries to offer a different
perspective on political participation that could add new elements to the usually
accepted paradigm in regard to the importance of political participation in a liberal
democracy.
Key Words: New Zealand, direct democracy, referendum, participation, voter turnout
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Introduction
Achieving the highest level of political participation is often considered paramount for a
strong democracy (Kaufman, 1960; Lijphart, 1968; Barber, 1984; Dahl, 1989; Coffè, 2012).
Pateman (1970, p.25) argues that: “the more the individual citizen participates, the better
he is able to do so.” The concern appears to be that if participation rates are not high, then
the legitimacy of democracy is threatened and political actors lack a mandate to implement
their public policy agendas. However, the issue of mandates are highly debatable if we
consider that most governments nowadays are elected on less than a 50% majority. There
are many aspects that affect voter turnout: socio-economic factors (education, income,
class, ethnicity, race, and gender), institutional factors (compulsory voting, registration
processes), salience and proportionality. While numerous studies have been undertaken to
examine what determinants affect voter turnout in general elections (Putnam, 2000;
Dhillon & Peralta, 2002; Franklin, 2004; Blais, 2006), others have examined the affects
referendums have on voter turnout in general elections (Everson, 1981; Cronin, 1989;
Tolbert, Grummel & Smith, 2001; Tolbert & Smith, 2005; Soberg & Tangeras, 2007; Cebula
& Coombs, 2011). Fukuyama (1996) even went as far to blame the welfare-state for
decreasing voter turnout as the government became more entwined in citizens’ lives.
There has been a notable global decline in voter turnout since the mid-1980s (International
Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, 2002). In New Zealand, voter turnout
levels continue to fall in local authority and national elections (McVey & Vowles, 2005; New
Zealand Department of Internal Affairs, 2010), with statistics showing 26% of registered
voters did not vote in the 2011 general elections. This was the highest non-voter rate since
1887 (Elections New Zealand, n.d.1). If you add to this situation the fact that only 94% of
those eligible to register did so (New Zealand Parliament, December 2011), the decline is
even worse. At the local authority level the figures continue to be poorer again with 51% of
those registered to vote, failing to do so (New Zealand Department of Internal Affairs, 2010,
p.22). One only has to read 'Letters to the Editor' or briefly listen into talk-back radio to
observe citizens voicing a lack of trust, cynicism and disillusionment in government at all
levels. Given these falling levels of political participation, it is no surprise that an entire field
of academic study has grown up around political participation with a focus on trying to
understand the reasons for this phenomenon. At the same time, political participation
theorists and political analysts also suggest new ways to help improve voter participation
as a way to save democracy from its enemies.
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While there have been numerous studies on political participation in general elections in
New Zealand, as far as can be established, none have examined the effects of
referendums on voter turnout and political participation. In 2005, after the election of a new
Mayor in 2004, the Wanganui District Council began a series of plebiscites aimed at giving
voters more say on issues that directly affected their lives. During his swearing-in
ceremony, the new Mayor, Michael Laws stated:
Can I say that my first priority - as Mayor - is to bring the Council closer to the
community. That means we must and will pioneer new ways to involve Wanganui
people in civic decision-making, so that the people feel that Council belongs to
them. And not cliques, bureaucrats or old boys' clubs (Wanganui District Council,
n.d.1).
This case-study will focus on and examine the determinants of the 'Wanganui
Referendums' and analyse what effect these plebiscites have had on political participation
at the local authority level. If none, it will attempt to determine if they have added to the
public good. Although focusing on a local authority level, this case-study also offers
nationwide opportunities for citizens and political actors in other local authorities, to gauge
the benefits of introducing direct democracy in their electoral constituencies.
To begin with, an important point of clarification must first be made. The study will then
include a brief history of direct democracy, the background of the Wanganui District
Council electorate, a discussion on the various plebiscites placed before voters and a
review of the literature on referendums and political participation. The study hypothesis will
be drawn from various theories and then applied to the results of the empirical data before
coming to a final conclusion.
Point of clarification
Before briefly delving into the history of direct democracy, it is important to clarify an
important point to avoid confusion and to be more technically correct in the terminology
that is used in this study. There are a number of parts to direct democracy: elections,
citizens’ initiatives, referendums, recalls and plebiscites. A lot of misunderstanding and
confusion could be avoided if this terminology was clearly distinguished from other
terminology, along with their procedures. There is a crucial difference between
referendums and plebiscites. While the Wanganui District Council referred to their
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experiment with direct democracy as 'referendums', in fact, what the Council have initiated
are 'plebiscites'. Plebiscites are different to referendums in the respect that they are
controlled by authorities. A plebiscite is a public consultation controlled from above by
those in power (the President, Prime Minister, Parliament, the District Council) which
decide when and on what subject the people will be asked to vote or give their opinion;
they are often a way for those in power to manipulate citizens and have power over them
(Kaufmann, Büchi & Braun, 2008, p.37).
Plebiscites are often used to give some form of legitimacy for decisions that those in power
have already taken. In Switzerland for example, it is quite different than in Hitler’s Nazi
Germany (1933–1945) where there were three manipulated plebiscites. In the case of
Switzerland, direct democracy means that a referendum process takes place either
because a group of voters demands it, or because it is stipulated in the Constitution. The
government cannot call a referendum. Direct democracy cannot be controlled by
governments, so there are no plebiscites in Switzerland (Kaufmann, Büchi & Braun, 2008).
However, in elucidating the above situation, it is obvious that there was a genuine attempt
by the Wanganui District Council to involve citizens in the decision-making process and the
Council agreed to make every effort to implement the will of the people, as it mostly did.
Wanganui citizens were also offered the chance to initiate a district-wide referendum on
any issue they so choose, upon the signature collection of 10% of those enrolled on the
Wanganui District Council electoral roll (Wanganui District Council, n.d.1). To date this
option has not been initiated.
Brief history of direct democracy
Direct democracy and its use are not new or unique. Its history dates back to the Greek
city state of Athens around 500 BC where male landowning citizens assembled at the
Pnyx (Forsén & Stanton, 1996) and made community decisions. Another early example
was what happened in a territory in the present-day Swiss canton of Graubünden which
had seceded from the Holy Roman Empire in 1499 and instigated its own form of direct
democracy (Osborne, 2012, pp.68-74). Direct democracy is a concept that a growing
number of citizens and states around the world are exploring and embracing. In Western
Europe, ten countries allow initiatives (as do six of the post-Soviet states) with 29
referendums having been held on the topic of integration into the European Union alone;
between 1990 and 2003 referendums took place in 91 sovereign states of the world,
including 30 in Europe regarding the Constitution of the European Union (Hug & Sciarini
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2000, Hug 2002). There are 190 million people in Switzerland, Italy, Liechtenstein and 24
States in the USA who now embrace direct democracy and 70% of the USA population
now live in a state that gives them the right to vote on initiatives and referendums (Butler &
Ranney, 1994; Matsusaka, 2004; Walker, 1987).
New Zealand also has a history of direct democracy. In 1893, New Zealand debated the
opportunity of having a constitutional framework similar to Switzerland. Although never
enacted, a Referendum Bill was introduced to Parliament. However, the Bill only provided
for non-binding, government-controlled referendums—or in other words, plebiscites. This
Bill was re-introduced again in 1918 but without success (Mark W. Gobbi, as cited in
Goschik, 2003 p.703). From 1911 to 1987, New Zealand citizens voted every three years
on questions about the number of licensed premises that may operate locally (Hughes,
1994, p.156). In 1984, Social Credit MP, Garry Knapp, introduced the Popular Initiatives
Bill which would have enabled 100,000 voters to trigger a non-binding referendum. The Bill
was deferred pending a Royal Commission on the Electoral System, which was
established by the Labour Government in 1985 (Karp & Aimer, 2002, pp.146-159). The
New Zealand Royal Commission on the Electoral System (1986, p.175) did not support
referendums, calling them "blunt and crude devices". In 1990 the National Party promised
to introduce the citizens' initiative. In February 1994 the Citizens Initiated Referenda Act
1993 came into force, but however, referendums initiated by citizens are non-binding on
government.
To date, there have only ever been four successful citizens' initiatives in New Zealand: the
New Zealand Professional Fire-Fighters Union initiative in 1995 which was an attempt to
maintain the existing number of professional fire-fighters when the government was
planning to reduce numbers; Margaret Robertson's 1997 initiative to reduce the number of
MPs from 120 back to 99 after the introduction of MMP which had increased the size of
Parliament; the Norm Withers initiative calling for minimum prison sentencing, hard labour,
placing greater emphasis on the needs of victims, providing restitution and compensation
for victims, also in 1997; and the 2009 initiative promoted by Sherryl Saville and Larry
Baldock, a former United Future MP, aimed at regaining the right of parents to smack their
children after the government had passed anti-smacking laws (Elections New Zealand,
n.d.1). The Local Electoral Act 2001 also allows for a local authority to direct the electoral
officer to conduct referendums. These referendums are non-binding on the local authority
unless provided for under other legislation. Although the Wanganui plebiscites were non-
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binding, a situation which can have a strong bearing on participation rates leading to less
than optimal participation (Soberg & Tangeras, 2007) — the Wanganui District Council did
state it was their intention to abide by the outcome of each plebiscite. Plebiscites held in
other New Zealand local authority areas have included issues such as: fluoridation,
licensing trusts, voting systems, the establishment of Maori electoral wards, the purchase
of a movie theatre, the building of a sports park, to stop a road closure and the merging of
two South Island Councils.
Wanganui background
It is important to understand the social and political background of Wanganui and how
direct democracy came to be introduced into the electoral process. This is because direct
democracy has never been a serious component of local authority politics in New Zealand
and this particular experience may potentially be a test-bed for other local authorities
interested in giving voters more say in local authority issues that directly affect their lives.
Initially named Petre, Wanganui is a coastal city near the mouth of the Whanganui River
and on the West Coast of the central North Island of New Zealand. It was established in
1840 and declared a city in 1924 (Cullen, 1979. p.494). It currently ranks 29th in size out of
73 districts in New Zealand and with a population of approximately 43,000, is described as
‘large’ (having a population of 20,000 or more) (Statistics New Zealand, n.d.). The
Statistics New Zealand December 2011 Household Labour Force Survey figures show an
employment rate of 63% as compared to a national average of 64%. The average weekly
income from all sources among people over 15 in 2010 was $774 per week and this
compared to $687 a week for the whole of New Zealand (Statistics New Zealand, n.d.).
On the 9th October 2004, the controversial radio host, political commentator and former
Member of Parliament, Michael Laws, along with four other Mayoral candidates,
challenged Chas Poynter, incumbent Mayor of 18 years, and won the Mayoralty. Laws’
biography includes six years as a National Party MP, followed by the position of senior aid
and advisor to the New Zealand First Party (who held the balance of power in the 1996
election of a new government) where he was the primary exponent in the creation of that
party's direct democracy policy (Laws, 1998), an important aspect to consider once he
became Mayor.
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Mayor Laws and his 'Vision Wanganui' team had earlier campaigned on a platform to
utilise referenda as a way of giving Wanganui citizens a say in all "matters of significance"
(Wanganui District Council, n.d.1). The first introduction Wanganui residents had to this
new agendum was in December 2004. After rising concerns about dwindling Police
numbers in the area, the Wanganui District Council instigated a petition which hoped to
collect 15,000-20,000 signatures (Lacy, 2004). The petition ultimately achieved 11,000
signatures and was presented to the local Member of Parliament (Wanganui District
Council, July 19, 2005).
By then, calls were being made for the first plebiscite. In a Council meeting on the 10th
February 2005, Wanganui District Councillor, Graeme Taylor, placed a proposal on the
table which read as such: “THAT a referendum seeking community feedback on
discretionary projects be held for input to the 2005/2006 Annual Plan” (Wanganui District
Council, n.d.1) [emphasis in original]. The motion was passed. Councillors Bullock, Dahya,
McGregor, Stevens and Westwood notably voting against it (Wanganui District Council,
n.d.1), which obviously showed some opposition toward direct democracy.
Wanganui Referendum: The issues & results 2005 - 2010
'Wanganui Referendum 05': This plebiscite was held in May 2005. Each person listed on
the Wanganui electoral roll was given the opportunity to prioritise three choices out of 14
optional capital projects for Council funding (Wanganui District Council, n.d.2). These
capital projects included: airport terminal upgrade, Castlecliff Beach development, central
city waterfront development, Cooks Gardens sports turf, Fitzherbert Ave extension to
Mosston Road, footpath maintenance and renewals, inorganic solid waste collection,
kerbside recycling, Kowhai Park redevelopment planning, public artworks/sculpture,
riverbank walkway extension to Castlecliff, Sarjeant Art Gallery extension (Warren &
Mahoney Design) and an extension to the Splash Centre.
The results showed that 16,864 votes were cast which represented 54% of those eligible
to vote—an impressive turnout considering the average turnout in New Zealand local
authority elections is only 50% (New Zealand Department of Internal Affairs, 2010). The
three most popular choices were the Splash Centre extension, followed by the City
waterfront development and third the Footpath upgrade. Consequently, Mayor Laws
claimed the result as: "a stunning success and a clear indication that Wanganui people
want to have a say in how their ratepayer dollars are spent" (Wanganui District Council,
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June 25, 2005).
'Wanganui Referendum 06': This plebiscite was held in February 2006. Citizens decided
on four issues: the spelling of Wanganui, water softening, water fluoridation, the size of
Council and the abolition of urban and rural wards. Results showed that 17,037 votes were
cast, which represented 55% of those eligible to vote. 82% voted against Wanganui being
spelled with an 'h'. 75% voted for the Council to investigate water softening. 74% voted
against the water supply being fluoridated. 60% voted for the number of Wanganui District
councillors to be reduced and 53% voted for the rural and urban wards to be abolished in
favour of one district wide ward (Wanganui District Council, n.d.3).
'Wanganui Referendum 07': This plebiscite was held in April 2007. Citizens decided on
four issues: water softening (again), gang insignia, kerbside recycling and whether a
separate Wanganui Anniversary Day should be established. Results showed that 15,030
votes were cast, which represented 48% of those eligible to vote. 71% voted to proceed
with water softening as proposed by Council. 65% voted to ban gang patches in public
places. 66% voted to establish a kerbside recycling service. 54% voted against having a
separate Wanganui Anniversary Day and therefore continue using the Wellington
anniversary day (Wanganui District Council, n.d.4).
'Wanganui Referendum 08': This plebiscite was held in December 2008. Citizens were
asked to prioritise four issues: Events Centre/Velodrome, Kowhai Park Development,
whether to build a new library or upgrade the old one and the widening of Mosston Road
including the Fitzherbert Avenue extension. This plebiscite registered the lowest turnout of
plebiscites to date with only 14,436 votes being cast, which represented 46% of those
eligible to vote. 38% chose the velodrome/events centre project as their first choice, with
the Mosston Road Upgrade / Fitzherbert Avenue Extension receiving 27%. However,
taking first, second and third choices into calculations, the library development won with 67%
of the vote—a rather confusing and inconclusive result (Wanganui District Council, n.d.5).
This result had Mayor Michael Laws calling for a new vote saying no mandate was given
(Wanganui Chronicle, January 27, 2011).
'Wanganui Referendum 09': This plebiscite was held in April 2009. Citizens decided on six
issues: relocating the Visitor Information Centre, a levy to promote Wanganui nationally,
sale of Energy Direct, ownership of pensioner housing, the option to choose three levels of
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rates increases and again, the spelling of Wanganui for the second time. Mayor Laws
commented that this was: “Solely to prove the results of the first referendum - to prove a
point to those who might argue that the first result was somehow inadequate or rogue” (M.
Laws, personal communication, March 31, 2012). Results showed that 18,306 votes were
cast, which represented 61% of those eligible to vote and the highest turnout ever
recorded during the period examined. 59% voted for the Visitor Information Centre to be
relocated to Moutoa Quay/Riverfront. 70% voted against a small levy being imposed on all
businesses and households to promote Wanganui nationally. 68% voted against the
council selling Energy Direct (the retail trading arm of Wanganui Gas). 71% voted against
the Council transferring ownership of part or its entire pensioner housing complexes. 48%
chose a 3% average rate increase for 2009/10 rating period (22% chose a 5% increase
and 22% would have been happy for elected Councillors to decide) and 77% chose to
spell Wanganui without an 'h' (Wanganui District Council, n.d.6).
'Wanganui Referendum 10': This was the final plebiscite and held in October 2010 (none
were held in 2011 or 2012). Citizens decided on two issues: having a unitary authority for
Wanganui and to decide how many gaming 'pokie' machines there should be in Wanganui.
Results showed that 14,386 votes were cast, which represented 46% of those eligible to
vote. 67% voted for the Council to investigate establishing a unitary authority that covers
the Wanganui district and assumes the functions of the Horizons Regional Council. 80%
voted for the Council to retain its policy of gradually reducing the number of gaming
machines (Wanganui District Council, n.d.7).
Some of the basic facts
Between 2005 and 2010, in the Wanganui District Council electorate, there have been a
total of six plebiscites addressing 21 questions—possibly more than all other local
authorities combined. Not all of these plebiscites have been simple yes/no questions. For
example, the first and fourth plebiscites asked voters to prioritise a list of projects. Other
questions had multiple choices that voters had to select. In this respect, these were not
'traditional' referendums—perhaps they might even be considered more of a polling
exercise. However, most questions did help decide issues important to Wanganui voters.
The average turnout rate over the six plebiscites was 52%*.
* This figure was calculated from official figures showing the turnout percentages for each plebiscite and by
dividing that number by six, the total number of plebiscites held.
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Literature review
The literature on the effects of referendums on voter turnout has been conflicting. David
Everson (1981) was one of the first researchers to examine the effects of US initiatives on
voter turnout with a US State comparative analysis. At this time there had been public calls
for a US national referendum system, aiming to increase voter turnout. Everson’s empirical
study concluded that the effects of the initiatives on voter turnout were fairly negligible.
Although he did note that where there is salience with a particular initiative, voter turnout
does increase, but this is only temporary.
On a completely different note; Tolbert, McNeal & Smith (2003), using more recent data
(American National Election Studies data for 1996, 1998 and 2000) and more
sophisticated multivariate analysis research methods, showed that exposure to ballot
initiatives does increase the probability of voter turnout. Their study showed that campaign
contributions to interest groups where stimulated and that political knowledge was
enhanced—therefore adding to the social capital. Tolbert, McNeal & Smith suggested that
each initiative on the ballot increased by 1%, the probability of a person voting. They
concluded that the educative effects of the initiative process on civic engagement were
possibly more important than the actual effects on public policy because citizens were
more informed and thus strengthening American democracy.
In a later article, Tolbert & Smith (2005) examined the educative effects of ballot initiatives
on voter turnout and showed that initiatives increased the turnout in midterm, as well as
presidential elections, at a higher level than previously thought. These were interesting
findings given how close some US Presidential elections have become and therefore
added support for greater use of referendums.
However, the results presented by Soberg & Tangeras (2003) who analysed data from 230
Norwegian local referendums, showed that binding referendums, as compared to non-
binding referendums, generated a decisive decision which led to an increased turnout of
11.5 percentage points. This is an important aspect to consider as local authority and
national referendums in New Zealand are not binding on local authorities or governments
and could therefore lead to a less than optimal turnout. Adding to that, Hajnal & Lewis
(2003) argued that as the use of direct democracy gives voters more control over local
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decisions, this gives voters more encouragement to participate. Their conclusions were
that cities with one or more voter initiatives on the ballot produced about a 4% increase in
votes. How this relates to the Wanganui District Council elections is debatable given that
postal voting is used and ballots are separate from Council elections (although they may
be posted together). In a more recent study, Childers & Binder (2010) argue that direct
democracy in and of itself does not lead to an increased turnout, but that mobilisation is
the mechanism through which direct democracy increases turnout. Similar to Tolbert,
McNeal & Smith (2003), Childers & Binder find that as the number of initiatives on election
ballots rises, so does turnout, although with diminishing returns.
An argument that is often raised in regard to increased referendum usage is that of voter
fatigue. Freitag & Stadelmann-Steffen (2010) challenges the theory that direct democracy
leads to voter fatigue and a decline in voter turnout. While statistics in Switzerland show a
decline in voter turnout which has been attributed to voter fatigue, Freitag & Stadelmann-
Steffen suggest this situation is due to the saliency of national and local elections. For
example, local authority elections in Switzerland have more saliency than parliamentary
elections as most of the important decisions are made at the local level in Switzerland.
Theory
Critical theory is a school of thought that critiques society and believes in radically
participatory, non-hierarchical forms of political, economic, and social interaction; with the
goal: “to produce social change that will empower, enlighten, and emancipate all people.”
(Schnieder & Ingram, 1997, p.51). This theory will be drawn upon to evaluate the results of
this study as there is common ground between critical theory and theories of participatory
democracy (Schneider & Ingram, 1997), given that such a theory focuses on empowering
people to take action that will produce social change.
Very few political participation studies do not consider Social Capital theory, even though it
is a rather vague theory with no commonly agreed upon definition (Dolfsma & Dannreuther,
2003). Some, like Skocpol (1996) and Tarrow (1996), debating any potential positive
effects. Social capital is a theory developed through the work of Robert Putnam (1993,
2000) suggesting that social activity and networks, with the interpersonal trust, tolerance
and cooperation this creates, provide social foundations and a vibrant democracy. Given
that referendums bring about public discussion, social activity and various networks for
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and against the referendums, it would seem appropriate to consider this theory in this
study’s hypothesis formulation and analysis.
Rational choice theory attempts to explain social and economic behaviour and argues that
individuals act as if balancing costs against benefits to arrive at actions that maximize
personal advantage (Friedman, 1953, pp.15, 22, 31). However, it is also argued that the
chance of any single voter having an impact on an election outcome means it is unlikely a
rational voter will vote at all (Downs, 1957). Therefore, rational choice theory must be
taken into consideration for the purposes of this study given that Wanganui voters have to
consider the trade-off between balancing the costs and benefits of voting in the plebiscites.
It has also been highlighted by Soberg & Tangeras (2007) that in small electorates of up to
4,000 voters, behaviour conforms extremely well to the predictions of rational choice
theory. Granted, the Wanganui local authority electorate is larger than this, at
approximately 30,000 voters, but this is not a large electorate by any standards and the
theory may very well hold true.
There have been numerous studies examining the reasons for turnout differences between
local authority and national elections; with scholars suggesting turnout is lower at local
authority levels (Lijphart, 1997; Franklin, 1999). This theory is referred to as second-order
elections theory and was first conceptualised by Reif & Schmitt (1980) to analyse the 1979
European Parliament elections. These elections were considered 'second-order' elections
as they were not thought to be as important to voters and political actors as much as first-
order elections. This was more so the case at that time, when the European Parliament did
not have as much power as it might currently have. Henderson & McEwen (2010) who
examined why some regions record higher rates of voter participation than others, have
reservations about second-order election theory and cite Studlar (2001) and Horiuchi
(2005) who highlight that provincial elections in Canada, Northern Ireland, rural Japan,
Southern Italy and Switzerland often produce higher turnout levels than federal elections.
Horiuchi refers to this as the 'turnout-twist'. Henderson & McEwen (2010, p.408) argue that
higher turnout rates at the local authority level can be attributed to relative political
authority in elections. In other words, in regions where there is a lot at stake and regions
where the political authority has more power to make important decisions. Given that the
Wanganui District Council elections are second-order elections, the theory may have value
in creating and evaluating the hypothesis and results of this study. Based on these
theories speculation might be that:
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Hypothesis. Voter turnout and political participation will increase due to the empowering
features of direct democracy and the consequent mobilisation this involves,
as has been shown to be the case in Norway and USA (Tolbert, McNeal &
Smith, 2003; Tolbert & Smith, 2005; Soberg & Tangeras, 2007).
Methodology & data sources
This study will adopt the mixed methodology approach using informal discussions with
voters and political actors, along with normative observations, quantitative and qualitative
methods. The reason for this is that even the most complex scientific models cannot
produce a comprehensive understanding of complex policy situations (Dryzek, 1990; King,
Keohane & Verba, 1994) as have developed in the Wanganui plebiscites. The empirical
part of this study uses official results of the Wanganui District Council elections from 1989 -
2010 to deduce the study hypotheses. This will be examined and matched against
averaged nationwide local authority election results over the same period, with a special
focus on the 'Wanganui Referendum' period of 2005 - 2010.
General election turnout rates for the Whanganui general election (comparable
geographical area to the Wanganui District Council local authority area) will also be
compared to the New Zealand general election turnout rates (excluding Maori voter turnout
rates) to observe any variations and to gauge if, and how, this data was affected after the
referendums were introduced. Such data was obtained from Linda Carkeek, Project
Support Officer, New Zealand Electoral Commission (personal correspondence April 26,
2012). Data relating to the number of public submissions to the Wanganui District Council
annual report from 2000 - 2010 are also examined to determine if participation in these
submissions has changed as a result of the plebiscites. Local authority election data for
the period was assembled from the New Zealand Department of Internal Affair (2010)
while plebiscite results data was assembled directly from Noeline Moosman, Electoral
Officer, Wanganui District Council (personal correspondence April 4, 2012). Data relating
to annual submissions was assembled from Jessica Pratt, Governance Office Assistant,
Wanganui District Council (personal correspondence April 10, 2012). This data is
summarized in Table 1 below.
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Table 1.
Source: NZ Department of Internal Affairs; Wanganui District Council.
Research findings
The following analysis seeks to identify the effects on political participation after the
introduction of the plebiscites in 2005. It is obvious at first glance (see Figure 1 below) that
voter turnout in the Wanganui District Council local authority elections has decreased after
the introduction of the plebiscites. Figures show voter turnout in the Council elections
declining from 67% in 2004, to 61% in 2010. This represented a decline of approximately
10%. However, this figure was still 22% above the average New Zealand local authority
turnout rate of 50%. It is also interesting to note here that the New Zealand local authority
average turnout rates increased at a corresponding rate to a decrease in the Wanganui
District Council turnout rates. Continuing with the examination of Figure 1, it can also be
observed that the Whanganui electorate general election turnout rates have remained
almost perfectly correlated to the New Zealand general election turnout rates from 1990 –
2008, also a curious observation given that it may be expected that these rates would
have dropped as well.
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Figure 1.
Turning now to the examination of public submissions to the Wanganui District Council
annual plan, mixed results can be observed (see Figure 2 below). Just prior to the
plebiscite period (2005 – 2010) observations show a substantial increase from 157
submissions in 2004 to 190 in 2005, then continuing to increase in 2006 to 205
submissions. This represented an impressive 31% increase. It must also be kept in mind
that at the beginning of this period there was a vigorous political campaign to unseat the
long term incumbent Mayor, Chas Poynter, leading up to the election of Michael Laws in
October 2004. This created a lot of publicity, raising a number of issues given the poor
economic conditions Wanganui had experienced for quite some time which may have
encouraged the submission increase. Change was in the air for Wanganui and debates
had begun. For instance, in December 2004 political participation was instantly
encouraged by the new Mayor, Michael Laws, and his Council with the instigation of a
petition which hoped to collect 15,000 - 20,000 signatures over concerns about dwindling
Police numbers in the area (Lacy, 2004). In 2007 there was a massive 68% decrease in
submissions. This figure increased slightly in 2008 before dropping back once again in
2009 and 2010. In 2011, one year after the last plebiscite, submissions had skyrocketed
back up to 214 or a 268% increase. The average submissions prior to the plebiscite period
was 145 submissions (not including 2011 submissions) and the average after the
plebiscite period was 113 (not including 2011 submissions). This represented an average
17
decrease of 22% over the plebiscite period. If the 214 submissions in 2011 are taken into
account the average submissions then become 135, and therefore only a 7% decline. It
may be possible that the spike in submissions in 2006 was a flow on effect from the salient
2006 plebiscite which was extremely contentious in regard to the spelling of Wanganui.
Figure 2.
Despite the introduction of direct democracy, the results of this study outlined above, show
that voter turnout and participation in Wanganui have not increased, therefore dispelling
this study’s hypothesis. However, what Mayor Michael Laws and his Council tried to
achieve during the period is consanguineous to critical theory—it has been empowering to
local residents. In New Zealand it is extremely rare, particularly at a local authority level,
that citizens are empowered to decide individual policy options as were experienced in
Wanganui. This aspect could be considered a positive aspect to the whole plebiscite
process. Citizens were empowered to make important public policy decisions which have
broken down the hierarchal structure that operates in all New Zealand local authorities.
It could also be argued that Wanganui citizens increased their social capital given the
opportunity to participate, form groups for and against various issues during the plebiscite
period and Wanganui continues to be a vibrant community even today. Much debate took
place as was observed in several local newspapers with every plebiscite receiving
abundant publicity. Being given the opportunity to participate in the decision making
process has a feel-good characteristic that may possibly have added to the social capital
of the community, although there is no way to quantify this to any great extent without an
18
in-depth survey which was beyond the scope and resources of this study. Being given the
option to participate in important local decisions has certainly been a change for the better
with obvious empowering features not previously experienced in this local authority.
Even though the local authority voter turnout dropped by 10% to the figure of 52%, it must
be remembered that this lower level was still higher than the New Zealand local authority
average of 50%. Voters obviously balanced the costs of voting against the benefits and felt
the benefits were worth the effort to return their voting forms. These figures are of course
lower than turnout rates for national elections. The average for Wanganui local authority
voters is 66% (Elections New Zealand, n.d.2) compared to the New Zealand general
election average of 74% for elections between 1989 and 2010 (New Zealand Department
of Internal Affairs, 2010); therefore this appears to support Reif & Schmitt's (1980) second-
order theory and should be taken into consideration.
Voter fatigue may possibly be one argument for the decrease observed in this case and
this argument is often mentioned as the reason to explain low participation in referendums
(Jackman & Miller, 1995; Blais & Dobrzynska, 1998; Franklin, 1999, 2004). The Wanganui
District Council plebiscites ran for six years from 2005 – 2010 and voters got to vote on 21
varying issues, therefore, it would not be unreasonable to assume voter fatigue was the
problem. One comparative study of the relationship between direct and representative
democracy in Swiss cantons confirmed this aspect and concluded:
the increased exercise of popular rights tends to hinder individual participation in
cantonal parliamentary elections, all else being equal. Put simply, direct democracy
seems to detract, rather than attract more voters (Hajnal & Lewis, 2003).
Yet if that were the case, it would be expected that voter turnout for Wanganui voters in the
Whanganui general electorate, would also decrease—this did not happen as this study
has revealed. Voter participation in Wanganui for the general elections was consistent with
the average New Zealand general election turnout.
A bifurcate perspective
Conventional wisdom tells us that voters often see representatives and political parties as
19
unresponsive. It is common to hear voters say it makes no difference who is elected to
power as political parties are all pretty much the same and never listen to voters anyway.
This could be considered the Tweedledum or Tweedledumber syndrome. Given that over 1
million New Zealand citizens failed to vote in the 2011 general elections, there may be
some support for this theory. Low voter turnout rates in elections can however be seen in
two ways; either as a reflection of a lack of trust, cynicism and disillusionment with the
political system, or that voters are happy with the system and therefore do not feel the
need to vote. Perhaps, given the findings of this research, it may be pertinent to consider a
different perspective on political participation that could add new elements to the usually
accepted paradigm; that maximum political participation is paramount in a liberal
democracy. This of course would conflict with the assumptions of numerous scholars in
this field such as; Barber, Coffe, Dahl, Kaufman, Lijphart, Pateman and Skocpol. While
seeking solutions to decreasing voter turnout rates, it might be that such participationists
are focusing on issues that would not make any difference under a truly democratic
political system—not a system that sees voting once every three years as a democracy. In
other words, is political participation in electing representatives or political parties
important at all?
While voting to elect representatives and political parties might indeed be important if it
were to come down to ensuring some form of democracy over that of a dictatorship or
authoritarian regime; it is extremely unlikely, in a liberal democracy such as New Zealand,
to imagine that citizens would ever be faced with such a choice. The only likelihood of New
Zealand becoming a dictatorship or authoritarian regime would be through the process of a
military coup, which if it were to happen, would probably happen regardless of the
numbers that vote in elections. Voting may also be important for those who seek some
form of power and or recognition; or perhaps even for those indoctrinated into party politics
who would like to steer New Zealand in a certain direction.
However, take for example the counter-factual argument that New Zealand is a country in
which citizens have the right to veto new legislation, changes to existing legislation or even
the right to initiate new legislation, through the direct democracy tool of binding
referendums. Under such a scenario, the need to participate in electing representatives
and political parties becomes inconsequential because voters would know that they have
the final say in public policy decisions—the People are sovereign and not the Parliament.
20
Therefore, it would be only natural to expect that voter participation levels at local authority,
or general elections, would decrease. Switzerland is a typical example of this. They are the
most prolific users of referendums in the world (Walker, 1987; Butler & Ranney, 1994;
Matsusaka, 2004) and according to Birch (2010) they also have one of the lowest voter
turnout rates in general elections. Yet it must also be kept in mind that the Swiss are also
extremely satisfied with their system of direct democracy. The 2003 Swiss Eurobarometer
survey showed that 64.8% of Swiss citizens thought that direct democracy was ‘very
important’, 31% thought it was of ‘sufficient importance’, while only 3.9% thought it was
‘not really important’ and 0.3% thought it was ‘not important at all’ (Donovan & Karp, 2006).
Switzerland is also ranked extremely high happiness rankings (Frey, 2011).
Lower turnout in the Wanganui District Council elections, coupled with consistently high
participation at the national level, would also appear to support the theory that Wanganui
citizens were happy with their local democratic system. Wanganui voters may therefore not
have felt as compelled to vote as prolifically in local authority elections as they once
previously did. This has also been supported by the numerous personal comments this
author has received from Wanganui residents who, although having an intense dislike for
controversial Mayor Laws, were appreciative of his introduction of direct democracy. A
normative judgement would suggest that the defining point here is happiness and
satisfaction with the political system, which is what, appears to be most important to
voters—the ability to have control over issues that directly affect their lives, in other words,
quality not quantity. To unequivocally confirm this conclusion would require an in-depth
survey of Wanganui citizens which was beyond the scope and resources of this study.
Such a study would be enlightening for those interested in democratic optimisation.
Conclusion
This paper has highlighted an unexpected conundrum. While participation declined in the
Wanganui District Council local authority elections, after the introduction of direct
democracy, and in contrast to this study’s expectations, participation did not decline in the
Whanganui general elections (same geographical area as the Wanganui District Council
local authority elections). There is no doubt that direct democracy brings about public
policy that matches the expectations of the median voter (Gerber, 1996; Matsusaka, 2000;
Frey & Stutzer, 2001). Voter satisfaction with a political system is crucial, perhaps even
21
more important than participation itself. Frey (1997, p.1043) suggests that: “Civic virtue
can be maintained and fostered by direct citizen participation via popular referenda and
initiatives”. So therefore voters feel trusted, less cynical, more satisfied and possibly
happier with the political system. Frey certainly found signs of greater civic virtues and
even happiness in cantons that used direct democracy (Frey, 2000, as cited in Bowler &
Donovan, 2002). This also appears to be the case with voters in Wanganui, given their
ability to influence public policy through the use of local authority plebiscites.
The Wanganui direct democracy experiment has certainly proven to be a credible option
for a modern, highly educated society and also, possibly given new thought to the
perceived importance of voter turnout rates. Although the Wanganui plebiscites were not
binding, almost all decisions were implemented by the Wanganui District Council as was
their stated conviction. However, referendums at the local authority and national level in
New Zealand are not binding on the local authority or the government. They have been
mostly ignored and therefore remain a point of contention leading to a lack of trust,
cynicism, and disillusionment in government, along with declining voter participation rates.
This highlights one of the weaknesses of representative democracy. In conclusion, the
words of Professor Vernon Bogdanor (1981, p.93) are perhaps most pertinent:
“acceptance of the referendum is but the logical consequence of accepting the democratic
form of government”.
22
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