michael prather kavli chair & professor earth system science uc irvine

Michael Prather

Kavli Chair & Professor

Earth System Science

UC Irvine

Global Climate Change

A tutorial on climate change causes, trends & regulations

Q: What drives Global Climate Change ?

Changes in Atmospheric Compositiongreenhouse gases, aerosols, clouds, water vapor

+Changes in Land Use

deforestation, desertification, ...

+Changes in Solar Output

=Perturbation to Radiative Balance of the

“Climate System”troposphere, land, and ocean

Q: What is Radiative Forcing ?

Solar Heating of the climate system 200 W m-2

is balanced by Terrestrial InfraRed Cooling 200 W m-2

Greenhouse Gases trap Terrestrial IR

Q: What is Radiative Forcing ?

A perturbation to the climate system – either natural or anthropogenic –

Is evaluated by the radiative imbalance that it causes – before the system adjusts – Is calculated as the global mean Radiative Forcing

– RF in units of W m-2 –

Current anthropogenic RF from greenhouse gases +3 W m-2

Q: What is today’s anthropogenic Radiative Forcing ?

Q: What is the History of Anthropogenic RF ?

COOLING WARMING

Q: What about natural solar forcing ?

Q: Is the Observed Temperature Change Consistent with Greenhouse Gases ?

Climate Model Simulations

(a) with only natural forcing (solar, volcanoes)

(b) with also anthropogenic gases and aerosols

Q: Why worry about climate change ?

Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change?

1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted in 1992 and entered into force in 1994

(188 ratification – 28 Jan 2003)

1997 Kyoto Protocol needs 55 parties with 55% of 1990 CO2 emissions

(104 ratification, 43.9% of Annex I – 28 Jan 2003)


UN FCCCARTICLE 2 OBJECTIVE

The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.


UN FCCCARTICLE 4 COMMITMENTS

4.1....All Parties, …, shall:

(b)....Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change;

4.2...The developed country Parties (Annex I) commit themselves …:

(a)....Each of these Parties shall adopt national policies and take corresponding measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs.


Kyoto Protocol

Article 3.1

The Parties included in Annex I shall, individually or jointly, ensure that their aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of the greenhouse gases listed in Annex A do not exceed their assigned amounts, calculated pursuant to their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments inscribed in Annex B and in accordance with the provisions of this Article, with a view to reducing their overall emissions of such gases by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012.


Kyoto Protocol Annex A Greenhouse gasesCarbon dioxide (CO2)

Methane (CH4)

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

Sectors/source categoriesEnergy, Fuel combustion, Energy industries, Manufacturing

industries and construction, Transport, Other sectors,

Fugitive emissions from fuels, Solid fuels, Oil and natural gas,

Mineral products, Chemical industry, Metal production,

Production of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride

Consumption of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride

Agriculture, Enteric fermentation, Manure management

Rice cultivation, Agricultural soils, Prescribed burning of savannas

Field burning of agricultural residues, Waste, Wastewater handling, Other


Kyoto Protocol Annex B Commitment 2008-2012 to 1990 (%)

Australia 108

Austria 92

Belgium 92

Bulgaria* 92

Canada 94

Croatia* 95

Czech Republic* 92

Denmark 92

Estonia* 92

European Community 92

Finland 92

France 92

Germany 92

Greece 92

Hungary* 94

Iceland 110

Ireland 92

Italy 92

Japan 94

Latvia* 92

Liechtenstein 92

Lithuania* 92

Luxembourg 92

Monaco 92

Netherlands 92

New Zealand 100

Norway 101

Poland* 94

Portugal 92

Romania* 92

Romania* 92

Russian Federation* 100

Slovakia* 92

Slovenia* 92

Spain 92

Sweden 92

Switzerland 92

Ukraine* 100

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 92

United States of America 93

Q: What are other Conventions and Protocols ?

1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer

secure a general treaty to tackle ozone depletion

1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances

that Deplete the Ozone Layer

(175 ratification – Dec 2000)

1990 London

(144 ratification – Dec 2000)

1992 Copenhagen

1995 Vienna

. . .


1979 Geneva Convention on Long-range

Transboundary Air Pollution

interrelationship between sulfur emissions in continental Europe and the acidification of Scandinavian lakes.

(48 ratification [all Europe] – Dec 2001)

1985 Helsinki Protocol on the Reduction of Sulfur Emissions or their Transboundary Fluxes by at least 30 % (19 signatories / 22 ratification [+Canada] – Dec 2001)

1988 Sofia Protocol concerning the Control of Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides or their Transboundary Fluxes

(25 signatories / 28 ratification [+U.S.+Canada] – Dec 2001)

1999 Gothenburg Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone

(31 signatories / 1 ratification – Dec 2001)


The objectives of this Convention, to be pursued in accordance with its relevant provisions, are the conservation of biological diversity, the sustainable use of its components and the fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the utilization of genetic resources, including by appropriate access to genetic resources and by appropriate transfer of relevant technologies, taking into account all rights over those resources and to technologies, and by appropriate funding.

1992 United Nations Convention on

Biological Diversity (182 Parties / 168 signatories [-U.S.] – Sep 2001)

Q: What do we mean by Climate Change ?

Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

Climate change in the UN FCCC refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

Q: What is the IPCC?

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988.

The role of the IPCC is to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change. It does not carry out new research nor does it monitor climate related data. It bases its assessment mainly on published and peer reviewed scientific technical literature.

Q: What is the IPCC?

The IPCC has three Working Groups + Task Force:

Working Group I assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.

Working Group II assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, consequences of and options for adapting to it.

Working Group III assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change.

Task Force on Greenhouse Gas Inventories oversees the national reporting programs and requirements.

Q: What are the IPCC Assessments ?

Delegations of 99 IPCC member countries participated in the Eighth Session of Working Group I in Shanghai on 17 to 20 January 2001

and approved the WGI SPM word-for-word.

Q: What are the IPCC Assessments ?

Robert Watson, IPCC Chair,

John Houghton & Ding Yihui, WGI Co-chairs,

122 Coordinating Lead Authors & Lead Authors,

515 Contributing Authors,

21 Review Editors, and

420 Expert Reviewers (incl. gov’ts).

prepared the WG I scientific assessment:

IPCC Madrid Nov 95

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Q: What Biogeochemical Cycles controlAtmospheric CO2 ?

The Natural Carbon Cycle (Pg-C = Gton-C, Pg-C/yr)

Q: How have we perturbed CO2 ?

The Human Perturbation to the Carbon Cycle: 1980s

Q: Where have CO2 emissions come from?

Q: Where will energy-CO2 emissions come from?

Q: What about alternative energy sources or conservation ?

OECD / IEA 2002

Q: What is the big uncertainty in future CO2 ?

Model Projections / Simulations of uptake of Anthropogenic CO2

show possible “saturation” effects.

Q: What is Projected for Atmospheric CO2 ?

IPCC 2001 Projections

Q: What about the other Greenhouse Gases & Aerosols?

Q: What Greenhouse Agents are Listed under Kyoto ?

listed in Annex A

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

Methane (CH4)

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)

Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)

What are not ?

CFCs & HCFCs (Montreal - OK)

Sulfate Aerosols

Black & Organic Carbon Aerosols

Tropospheric Ozone (O3)

Carbon monoxide (CO)

Nitrogen Oxides (NOX)

Q: How does Energy Use control the old GHGases ?

CH4 emissions (600 Tg-CH4/yr)

energy use18%

biomass burning 6%

pollution impact

on lifetime ??%

N2O emissions (16 Tg-N/yr)

industrial 8%

biomass burning 3%

agriculture35%

CFC & HCFC emissions (<< 1 Tg/yr)

refrigeration, foam, propellant, cleaning

phased out under Montreal Protocol

Q: How does Energy Use control the new GHGases ?

PFCs = CF4 + ... (13 Gg/yr ++)

anthropogenic 100%

aluminum, industrial

SF6 emissions (6 Gg/yr ++)

anthropogenic 100%

insulation, electrical switches

HFC emissions (100 Gg/yr ++)

anthropogenic 100%

CFC partial replacements

Q: How does Energy Use control the Aerosols ?

sulfate = SO2 emissions (110 Tg-S/yr)

energy use 67%

biomass burning 2%

Black Carbon emissions (12 Tg/yr)

energy use 55%

biomass burning 45%

Carbonaceous emissions (140 Tg/yr)

energy use 20%

biomass burning 39%

Q: How does Energy Use control the pollution gases ?

CO emissions (2800 Tg-CO/yr)

energy use 32%

biomass burning 25%

NOX emissions (52 Tg-N/yr)

energy use 65%

biomass burning 14%

VOC emissions (600 Tg-C/yr)

energy use 28%

biomass burning 6%

CH4

Q: How do non-greenhouse Pollutants impact Climate ?

CO, VOC, NOX (=NO+NO2), & CH4 control

Tropospheric Chemistry

is the sink for CH4 & HFCs; the source for O3

OH HO2

NO

VOCCO

HFC

O3

CH4

CH4

Q: How does CO become an indirect greenhouse gas ?

CO emissions are effectively

equivalent to CH4 emissions:

100 Tg-CO = 5 Tg-CH4(IPCC, 2001)

OHCO O3

CH4OHCO O3

Q: How does short-lived NOx impact Climate ?

CH4OH

NOX

O3

O3

Anthropogenic GHGas Impact through Reactive Pollutants to date

CH4 320 Tg(CH4)/y = direct emission

NOx 40 Tg(N)/y - 80 Tg(CH4)/y

CO 1000 Tg/y + 50 Tg(CH4)/y

VOC 250 Tg/y + 30 Tg(CH4)/y

Q: What are the range of projections ?

Q: What is the inertia of the climate system ?

Q: To Whom does all this get reported ?

Marrakech Nov 2001

Q: Who decides what actions to take ?

Q: Who decides what actions to take ? COP-8

Q: What next ?

The rules for entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol require 55 Parties to the Convention to ratify (or approve, accept, or accede to) the Protocol, including Annex I Parties accounting for 55% of that group’s carbon dioxide emissions in 1990.

as of Feb 200336.1%

17.4%2.1%

0.3%

UN Secretary-General receives Russia’s Kyoto Protocol ratification

Andrey Denisov, Russian Permanent Representative to the UN and Kofi Annan, UN Secretary-General

"I am very glad to announce that today I received the Russian Federation’s instrument of ratification for the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. I congratulate President Putin and the Russian Federation for their leadership in making it possible for the Protocol to enter into force – as it will, 90 days from tomorrow, on 16 February 2005.

"This is a historic step forward in the world’s efforts to combat a truly global threat. Most important, it ends a long period of uncertainty. Those countries that have ratified the Protocol, and which have been trying to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases even before its entry into force, now have a legally binding obligation to do so.

"All countries must now do their utmost to combat climate change and to keep it from undermining our efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.

"I therefore take this opportunity to urge those developed countries that have not ratified the Protocol to ratify it and limit their emissions.

"The Parties to the Climate Change Convention will have their next major meeting in Buenos Aires from 6 to 17 December. I hope they will use that occasion to seize the promising possibilities that have been opened up by this major development.

Statement attributable to the Secretary-General upon receiving Russian Federation ratification 18 November 2004

The text of the Protocol to the UNFCCC was adopted at the third session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997; it was open for signature from 16 March 1998 to 15 March 1999 at United Nations Headquarters, New York. By that date the Protocol had received 84 signatures. Those Parties that have not yet signed the Kyoto Protocol may accede to it at any time.

The Protocol is subject to ratification, acceptance, approval or accession by Parties to the Convention. It shall enter into force on the ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Annex I Parties which accounted in total for at least 55 % of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 from that group, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.

Q: What Next ?

Q: Where Next ?

Q: What next - - - ?

Q: Who else is involved in Climate Change ?

California AB 1493Q: Who else ?

the States

California AB 1493

Q: Who else ?

Global Climate Change

is driven by local actions

Michael Prather

Kavli Chair & Professor

Earth System Science

UC Irvine

michael prather kavli chair & professor earth system science uc irvine

Documents

climate change causes

mitigation of climate

climate change4

climate systemtroposphere

climate model simulations

anthropogenic gases

natural solar forcing

natural forcing solar