michael w. covel - trend following
TRANSCRIPT
www.covel.com
An Attitude Adjustment
Presentation by:
Michael W. Covel President, Trend Following™
www.covel.com
Fundamentals Are Religion
“The illusion has been created that there is an explanation for everything with the primary task to find
that explanation.”
famed trader
www.covel.com
www.covel.com
www.covel.com
21 Monitors?
www.covel.com
Trends in motion will stay in motion, they will persist, until they reverse.
Everything Flows
www.covel.com
Be Like Lee
www.covel.com
Since 1974
www.covel.com
Larry Hite
www.covel.com
No Risk No Reward
www.covel.com
Make Your Bets
www.covel.com
Food for Thought
www.covel.com
www.covel.com
www.covel.com
Inefficient Markets Are Opportunity
“An ancient tale with no empirical support.” Eugene Fama The Father of Modern Finance
www.covel.com
Price, Price, Price
www.covel.com
Bonds
www.covel.com
Crude Oil
www.covel.com
Sugar
www.covel.com
Capture the Middle Meat
www.covel.com
Start with Small Bets
www.covel.com
Heuristic: Run Profits & Cut Losses
www.covel.com
1%
www.covel.com
Trade Everything: Mob Psychology
www.covel.com
Diversifying Across “Numbers”
www.covel.com
Swan(s)
www.covel.com
Unpredictable & Unannounced
Volatility, chaos, uncertainty, disorder.
www.covel.com
Bell Curve Professors
www.covel.com
Bobby Jones
www.covel.com
Bubba Watson: Perfect Shots?
www.covel.com
Process v. Outcome 1
www.covel.com
Process v. Outcome 2
www.covel.com
Very Different Ways of Thinking
Trending Non-Trending Time of market turbulence Time of market quiet
Divergence from mean Convergence to mean
Period of disequilibrium Period of equilibrium
Structured price memory Random price action Mean-fleeing behavior Mean-reverting behavior
www.covel.com
1. What market do you buy or sell at any time? 2. How much of a market do you buy or sell at any time? 3. When do you buy or sell a market? 4. When do you get out of a losing position? 5. When do you get out of a winning position?
5 Take Aways
www.covel.com
No Country for [Blank] Men
www.covel.com
This Kid Is Already Toast
www.covel.com
Presentation by: Michael W. Covel
President, Trend Following™
For More Information: +1 (800) 480-0581 (Toll Free)
+1 (702) 666-8579 (Direct)
www.trendfollowing.com www.covel.com/blog
www.covel.com/podcast twitter.com/covel & facebook.com/covel